Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]

Renminbi Exchange Rate and Policy Recommendations - The renminbi is at its weakest since 2012 in real effective terms, having depreciated about 16% over the past ten years [2] - The US dollar is at its strongest in almost 40 years in real effective terms, although it has weakened from an index of 110 at the beginning of the year to about 100 [2] - Exchange rates should be determined by market forces, considering fundamentals, interest rates, and capital flows [7] - Policymakers should consider a combination of monetary and fiscal easing to achieve both a stronger renminbi and escape the low inflation zone [14] - A modest appreciation of the renminbi is unlikely to hurt Chinese companies' competitiveness [16] Renminbi Internationalization - The renminbi is already a reserve currency as it joined the SDR basket ten years ago, but its share is still low at 2% to 3% [18] - The shift from high to low interest rates in China makes it cheaper to borrow in renminbi, favoring internationalization [20] - Further opening up access to Chinese markets for foreigners and vice versa is needed [21][22] - More Chinese bonds should be issued both domestically and offshore to supply safe assets [23] Consumption and Investment Strategies - Boosting labor income requires a strong job market, while transfer income has slowed due to local government difficulties [24][25] - The marginal propensity to consume in China has decreased from $0.68 to $0.66 per dollar earned, indicating cautiousness [26] - Both Hong Kong and mainland markets are good strategies for equity allocation, considering the global monetary reset [31][32]

The Indian rupee hit a fresh all-time low against the dollar, as traders said the Reserve Bank of India had stepped away from defending the currency https://t.co/8UCPvps480 ...

Currency Trends - China's yuan has appreciated to multi-year highs against currencies of major trading partners [1] Trade Implications - The yuan's appreciation poses a potential risk to China's export situation [1]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - Bank of Korea believes monetary policy alone cannot control the housing crisis, but is mindful that ample liquidity wouldn't slow the fire [1] - Rate cuts are still on the table due to GDP performing higher than expected and resilient trade [3] - The forecast for this year's growth is 4.9%, well below potential GDP, and 1.6% for next year [4] - The official position is to maintain the easing monetary cycle given the negative output gap, but the magnitude and timing depend on new data [5] - Korea's potential GDP growth rate is probably between 1.8% and 2% due to rapid aging [6] Bond Market & Yields - Bond market yields are reacting not only to domestic factors but also global factors such as the possibility of the US Fed decision and the dollar's movements [7][8] - There is concern that surging yields will affect the monetary transmission mechanism [9] - The Bank of Korea has cut interest rates by 300 basis points since last October and anticipates an easing cycle [9] Trade & Investment - The trade deal between the US and Korea is considered a good development that helps reduce uncertainties regarding tariffs [11] - Implementing the trade deal requires parliamentary approval and enactment of new laws [12] - A commercially viable and win-win program for both the US and Korea is desired, potentially through joint ventures combining US science strengths with Korean application and manufacturing technology [13] - One key focus has been the $350 billion investment fund in the U S [13] Currency & Financial Stability - The Korean market is excessively sensitive to uncertainties affecting the exchange rate, including US stock prices, US economic shutdowns, US Fed policy, and US-China trade relationships [14][15][16] - Depreciation in the Korean Won is hard to judge due to numerous fundamentals [16] - The current level of the Korean Won exchange is mostly dominated by domestic investment abroad, and foreign currency debt level is stable, suggesting no immediate financial stability concerns [18] - The Bank of Korea is willing to intervene if there is excessive movement in the exchange rate [19] Stock Market - Korean stock prices, particularly in the semiconductor industry, are influenced by US technology stock prices, leading to potential volatility [21] - There are concerns about the potential unraveling of high-tech stock prices, especially for domestic retail investors [22] - The price-to-book ratio (PBR) is 1.1%, which is considered below other countries' levels, suggesting the stock market is not significantly overvalued [20]

Japan's finance minister issued a warning regarding currency movements as the yen weakened toward the key psychological threshold of 155 to the US dollar https://t.co/7cHaGk5IKn ...

(Subtitles may contain inaccuracies) We had President Lee saying that the BOK did the right thing when it held rates steady instead of cutting rates because that would boost the property market further. Saying the property market is a ticking time bomb. What's your take on whether or not the property sector is in fact one of the considerations for your monetary policy decisions.Yes. Definitely property prices, especially in metropolitan area and Seoul, affect the financial stability. And price stability is ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached $36 million, reflecting a 23.7% year-over-year reduction, with the adjusted EBITDA margin contracting to 20.8%, a decline of 315 basis points year-over-year [5][12][16] - Net loss attributable to the owner of the company totaled ARS 8.5 billion for the quarter, compared to a net gain of ARS 27.9 billion in the same quarter last year [15][16] - Net debt declined by $9 million quarter-over-quarter to $206 million, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.49 times, up from 0.89 times at the end of 2024 [5][16][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue in the cement segment declined 13.2% year-over-year, driven by a 5.4% contraction in volumes and softer pricing [8][12] - Concrete revenues remained broadly flat versus the third quarter of 2024, with a 37.8% increase in volumes offset by softer pricing dynamics [9][12] - The aggregates segment posted a slight 0.8% revenue decline, despite a 26.3% increase in sales volumes driven by higher activity in road construction [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cement dispatches fell around 1% in the quarter, largely explained by a soft July, although September volumes were the highest in 22 months [6][7] - VAC cement dispatches reached 44% of total industry dispatches, showing strong performance in line with the previous quarter [7] - October's volumes showed renewed strength, with a 7.4% year-over-year increase, indicating a potential recovery in the market [7][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to optimize performance and support the country's development as conditions normalize, with a focus on unlocking investment projects that have been on hold [19][20] - The recent electoral outcome is expected to provide stability needed for investment projects, with management expressing optimism about higher activity levels [19][26] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that key industry activity lost momentum due to a slowing economy and uncertainty around the electoral process, but expressed optimism for recovery following the elections [4][19] - The company expects to see a recovery in pricing in dollar terms with a more stable exchange rate and plans to increase prices above inflation [24][25] Other Important Information - The company began dispatching new 25-kilogram bags during the quarter, which were well received by customers [19] - Cash flow generation from operating activities totaled ARS 32 billion, reflecting higher working capital requirements and lower operational results [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing outlook for the company - Management indicated that pricing dynamics are expected to improve, with plans to increase prices above inflation in the coming months, especially with a more stable exchange rate [22][24] Question: Capital allocation and dividend distribution - Management stated that due to the macroeconomic situation in Argentina, they have not advanced with dividend payments this year but plan to reassess the situation for 2026 [24][25] Question: Early call orders or volumes for the fourth quarter - Management noted a recovery in volumes for October, driven by pre-election investment hesitance and a favorable exchange rate, expressing optimism for continued volume growth [26][27]

The Philippine central bank is allowing the dollar-peso exchange rate to be determined by market forces, confident that the local currency is backed by favorable economic fundamentals https://t.co/sVLG4glqmz ...

Tourism Industry Outlook - The Tourism Authority of Thailand projects a 6% year-over-year decrease in foreign tourist arrivals this year [1] - This decline marks the first annual decrease in a decade, excluding the pandemic period [1] - Safety concerns and a strong Thai Baht are factors suppressing tourist demand from key markets like China [1] Currency & Economic Impact - Analysts suggest that weak Thai tourism demand and sluggish merchandise exports will limit the appreciation potential of the Thai Baht [1]