Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) achieved record closes at the beginning of the week but faced declines towards the weekend due to limited job growth in certain sectors and concerns about interest rates [1] - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) are also expected to end the week with losses, despite a brief uptick on Friday following soft inflation data [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is on track for its fifth consecutive weekly gain, marking its longest winning streak since March 2020 [2] Earnings Reports - Dynatrace (DT) and ON Semiconductor (ON) experienced declines after missing quarterly earnings expectations, while Fastly (FSLY) saw a rally due to positive full-year revenue and profit forecasts [3] - Roku (ROKU) rose after exceeding earnings expectations and providing an optimistic outlook, while Applied Materials (AMAT) reached a record high driven by strong results and guidance related to AI demand [3] - Coca-Cola (KO) fell due to a revenue miss, and Mattel (MAT) faced its worst daily drop in decades following disappointing quarterly results and a weak outlook [4] - Upstart (UPST) declined despite surpassing profit and revenue expectations, influenced by a C-suite shakeup and a softer margin forecast [4] - QuantumScape (QS) dropped after reporting a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and downbeat projections [4] Corporate Developments - Kroger (KR) appointed former Walmart executive Greg Foran as its new CEO [5] - STMicroelectronics (STM) surged following a partnership announcement with Amazon's AWS, which includes a multiyear share purchase agreement [5] - Novo Nordisk (NVO) initiated a lawsuit against Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) for alleged patent infringement related to a weight-loss drug, causing significant stock movements for both companies [5] Upcoming Events - Markets will be closed on Monday, February 16, for Presidents' Day, but the following week is expected to be busy with a significant amount of economic data to analyze [6]

Heading into this week, I think if you had told investors that economic data would show the economy added 130,000 jobs in January, unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and the Consumer Price Index rose only 2.4% year over year, most would have been pretty pleased and bought the broader stock market. Yet, with just a few hours of trading left on Friday, the major stock indexes all find themselves in the red for the week. ^SPX Chart Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on t ...

Market Overview - All three major indexes are on track for their worst week since November due to AI-related concerns affecting various sectors, including brokerages and trucking [1] - U.S. stock index futures were trading flat after an AI-led selloff, with investors cautious ahead of inflation data that may influence the Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook [9] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index report for January is expected to show steady price increases, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report that raised concerns about prolonged interest rates [2] - Fed fund futures indicate a 70% chance of a rate cut in June and a total easing of 60 basis points this year [4] Company Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow dropped over 1% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq fell 2%. In premarket trading, Dow E-minis fell 103 points (0.21%), S&P 500 E-minis were down 6 points (0.09%), and Nasdaq 100 E-minis lost 9.25 points (0.04%) [5][6] - Applied Materials saw an 11.5% increase in premarket trading after forecasting second-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street expectations [10] - Networking equipment provider Arista Networks gained 11% after forecasting annual revenue above expectations [8] Investment Trends - AI capital expenditures (capex) are a significant theme among the "Magnificent Seven" companies, with cumulative investments projected to reach approximately $650 billion [6][10] - Investors are increasingly demanding tangible returns as they react to fears of competition impacting certain sectors [10] - The upcoming earnings report from chip leader Nvidia is anticipated to be a critical test for the AI investment narrative [7][10] Trade Developments - The U.S. and Taiwan signed a reciprocal agreement confirming a 15% levy on imports from Taiwan while committing to eliminate or lower tariffs on nearly all U.S. goods [9][10] - U.S. President Donald Trump plans to reduce some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods, as reported by the Financial Times [9]

Core Insights - Norway's central bank is committed to reducing consumer price inflation to its 2% target, indicating a cautious stance on further interest rate reductions [1] - The central bank began an easing cycle in 2025, cutting its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.0%, with plans to gradually reduce borrowing costs towards 2028 as inflation is expected to decline [1] - Unexpected acceleration in Norway's annual core inflation to 3.4% in January from 3.1% in December may lead to a reassessment of the central bank's rate cut plans [1] Economic Outlook - The Norwegian economy is expected to experience a moderate upturn, with household purchasing power anticipated to grow [1] - The central bank governor emphasized the unpredictability of economic outlooks, stating that no promises can be made regarding the policy rate [1] Monetary Policy Communication - Norges Bank plans to provide more insights into its monetary policy committee's discussions this year, aiming for greater transparency without attributing specific views to individual members [1] - The governor supports a Finance Ministry initiative for periodic reviews of the central bank's mandate but cautions against including broader goals like wealth distribution or climate change in monetary policy [1] Sovereign Wealth Fund - Norway's $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund faces conflicting expectations regarding responsible investments both domestically and internationally [1]

欧洲央行官员本月初在第五次会议上维持借贷成本不变，行长拉加德重申了央行一贯的论调，即他们认 为自身处境"良好"。投资者和经济学家预计利率将维持不变至2027年。 当被问及在 2026 年晚些时候任期结束后是否会再次担任爱尔兰中央银行行长时，Makhlouf表示他"很享 受我的工作"。他说："我接手这项工作已经七年了。我非常专注于接下来的几个月。有很多事情要做。 我有一个很棒的团队，我们致力于为爱尔兰人民服务。" Makhlouf称："通胀本身一度飙升至非常高的水平，但一直在回落，目前基本上已达到目标水平。欧洲 央行正按计划推进，力争在中期内实现2%的通胀目标。" 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会成员、爱尔兰央行行长Gabriel Makhlouf表示，政策制定者的 下一步行动可能是提高或降低借贷成本。Makhlouf表示："我不排除进一步降息的可能性，实际上我也 不排除利率上调的可能性。我的意思是，目前看来，通胀正朝着我们的目标稳步前进，所以我们处境良 好。" 他表示，尽管存在"诸多不确定因素"，欧洲央行仍将继续采取逐次会议进行的方式。"我们会审视证 据，分析数据——很难准确预测未来会发生什么。但就目前 ...

Comments today from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid were bearish for stocks and bonds when he said, "In my view, further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer," so the Fed should hold rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level.The annual benchmark revision to 2025 US payrolls subtracted -862,000 jobs, a larger revision than the -825,000 expected.US Jan nonfarm payrolls rose +130,000, stronger than expectations of +65,000 and the most in 13 months. The Jan unemployment rate unexpec ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack indicated that there is no urgency for the U.S. central bank to change interest rates this year, maintaining a "cautiously optimistic" outlook for economic activity [1]. Economic Outlook - Hammack believes the current position allows the Fed to keep the funds rate steady and observe economic developments without making hasty adjustments [2]. - The economic outlook is positive, with expectations of growth supported by easier financial conditions, recent interest rate reductions, and fiscal support [5]. Interest Rate Policy - The Fed's current interest rate target range is between 3.5% and 3.75%, a decision supported by Hammack at the end of January [2]. - The Fed had previously reduced its target by 75 basis points last year to support a softening job market while managing inflation, which has consistently exceeded the 2% target [3]. Inflation Concerns - Despite a positive economic outlook, Hammack noted that inflation remains "too high" and emphasized the importance of easing price pressures, which could remain around 3% this year [5]. Employment Trends - Current hiring trends indicate stability, characterized by a "low-hire, low-fire" environment where companies are not significantly increasing or decreasing their workforce [6].

Group 1 - The Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund ETF (VTIP) has grown to $64.6 billion, making it one of the largest TIPS funds, providing a 5.4% return over the past year amid persistent inflation concerns and a shift towards Fed accommodation [1] - VTIP's value is closely tied to inflation expectations, with the CPI showing a year-over-year increase of 1.96% as of December 2025, aligning with the Fed's 2% target, creating a stable environment for TIPS [2][3] - The recent easing cycle by the Fed has reduced the federal funds rate to 3.75%, compressing nominal Treasury yields and enhancing TIPS valuations by making their inflation protection feature more attractive [3] Group 2 - The key factor to monitor is whether inflation reaccelerates or continues to moderate, as higher CPI trends would increase the value of VTIP's principal adjustments [4] - VTIP's focus on TIPS maturing within five years limits interest rate risk, making it less sensitive to rate swings compared to longer-dated TIPS funds, with a competitive 1.45% dividend yield [5] - The tradeoff for VTIP's short duration is lower potential for capital appreciation during inflation surges, but it also mitigates losses if rates rise unexpectedly [6] Group 3 - The most significant macro factor affecting VTIP is inflation trends relative to the Fed's 2% target, while the short duration of VTIP limits both risk and reward in a stabilizing rate environment [7]

Group 1 - The Bank of Thailand is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming monetary policy meeting to assess the impact of the elections on the economy and markets, with consumer price index declining for 10 consecutive months, creating room for potential rate cuts later in the year [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised Indonesia's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 4.9% to 5.2% following better-than-expected Q4 2025 GDP, but warns that growth momentum may slow due to fiscal contraction and the end of automotive incentives [1] - The Indian central bank's monetary easing cycle may have ended, with a low likelihood of resuming rate cuts in the short term, as economic growth is stabilizing and inflation expectations have been raised [3] Group 2 - Kenanga economists suggest that the Malaysian ringgit is likely to depreciate due to strong domestic economic data and a supportive dollar, with the Federal Reserve expected to delay rate cuts until June [2] - Moody's potential downgrade of Indonesia's credit outlook to negative signals rising policy uncertainty, which could lead to increased scrutiny of the government's credibility and policy choices over the next 12 to 18 months [2] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde has ruled out the possibility of rate cuts due to a stronger euro, providing support for the euro as the ECB maintains interest rates unchanged [3]

Group 1: Technology Sector - Tech stocks in the US have experienced a decline for three consecutive days, driven by investor concerns regarding potential disruptions in the artificial intelligence (AI) market [1][4] - The launch of Anthropic's new AI chatbot, Claude Opus 4.6, has raised fears about its impact on traditional professional services, leading to a sell-off in software companies [3][10] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq index has fallen by approximately 4% over the past five trading sessions, with significant losses attributed to fears surrounding AI's influence on the market [4][12] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector has faced additional pressure, with shares of major companies like AMD and Qualcomm dropping by nearly 3% and over 7% respectively, due to concerns about demand for microchips [2][12] - The overall decline in tech stocks has contributed to a broader sell-off in the semiconductor market, reflecting investor anxiety about future demand [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has seen a dramatic decline, with a drop of $200 billion, marking its sharpest decline in dollar terms since its inception, now trading about 50% below its record high of $126,198 [5][6] - The cryptocurrency market has been adversely affected by the tech sell-off, with Bitcoin experiencing its steepest one-day collapse on record, falling below $64,000 for the first time since September 2024 [6][11] - Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also suffered significant losses, shedding more than 10% during the same period [11] Group 4: Financial Services Sector - Shares in financial services firms such as FactSet Research Systems, Nasdaq, and S&P Global have declined following the announcement of Anthropic's new AI tool, which is expected to automate tasks traditionally performed by these companies [2][8][10] - The overall sentiment in the financial services sector has been negatively impacted by the tech sell-off and concerns regarding AI's potential to disrupt traditional business models [2][3]