Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike has not provided a lasting boost to the yen, leading to increased skepticism about the currency's structural weaknesses and the outlook for its recovery [1]. Group 1: Yen Forecasts and Market Sentiment - Strategists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA predict the yen could weaken to 160 per dollar or lower by the end of 2026, influenced by significant US-Japan yield gaps, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows [2]. - The yen has gained less than 1% against the US dollar this year after four consecutive years of decline, with a brief rise past 140 per dollar in April before losing momentum due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and political risks in Japan [3]. - Junya Tanase, chief Japan FX strategist at JPMorgan, holds a particularly bearish forecast for the yen, predicting it could reach 164 per dollar by the end of 2026, citing weak fundamentals and potential cyclical forces that may further depress the currency [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - Current market expectations indicate that the next Bank of Japan rate hike is not fully anticipated until September, while inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, putting additional pressure on Japanese government bonds [5]. - The resurgence of carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is creating additional challenges for the yen's recovery, with leveraged funds showing significant bearish positions on the currency [6]. - Analysts suggest that global macro conditions in the coming year may support risk sentiment, which could benefit carry strategies and keep the dollar-yen exchange rate elevated, with expectations of the dollar-yen rising to 160 by the end of 2026 [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japan's Economy - **Forecast Period**: 2026 Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth**: Japan's GDP is expected to grow at +1.0% in 2026, a slight decrease from +1.3% in 2025, indicating resilience despite modest decline [1][4] - **Inflation Trends**: Headline inflation is projected to temporarily fall below 2%, with strong wage growth expected to ease consumer purchasing power headwinds [1][4] - **Bank of Japan (BoJ) Rate Hikes**: Anticipation of semiannual rate hikes by the BoJ, with the first expected in July 2026, and a terminal rate projected at +1.5% [5][6] - **Fiscal Policy Constraints**: Fiscal leeway is limited due to high government debt/GDP ratio and the JGB market's exit from quantitative easing, leading to moderate fiscal impulses [1][4][13] Additional Important Points - **Wage Growth**: Expected base pay increase of approximately 3.3% in spring negotiations, supported by labor shortages and corporate profits [20] - **Inflation Deceleration**: Core CPI is projected to decelerate to +1.7% in 2026 from +3.1% in 2025, influenced by government anti-inflation measures [22][23] - **Consumer Purchasing Power**: Recovery in purchasing power anticipated as food and energy inflation slows, allowing for higher service prices [23][24] - **Public Sector Price Adjustments**: Government considering price hikes in medical fees and other public services, which may impact CPI [25][26] - **Investment Trends**: Companies are increasingly investing in value-added products to manage rising costs, despite some sectors facing labor shortages [43][44] Risks and Considerations - **Exchange Rate Risks**: FX movements could impact the timing of rate hikes and overall economic stability [5][8] - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Recent tensions with China pose risks to service exports and tourism, which could affect GDP growth [56] - **Potential for Policy Missteps**: Concerns over unpredictable policy decisions may persist, particularly in the JGB market [1][4][13] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding Japan's economic outlook for 2026, highlighting growth expectations, inflation trends, fiscal policy constraints, and potential risks.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy board unanimously decided to increase the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, citing growing confidence in the economic outlook. Shortly after the statement, the yen weakened to around 156 per dollar, indicating the market had fully priced in the rate hike. ...

Market Overview - Australian shares have increased by +0.5% in futures, marking the first rise this week, influenced by positive trends in Wall Street [1] - The U.S. economic data showed core consumer prices rising by 2.6% in November, while overall CPI increased by 2.7%, impacting Federal Reserve's rate cut plans [2] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones rose by +0.1%, the S&P 500 increased by +0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite surged by +1.4%, breaking a four-day losing streak [3] Central Bank Actions - Japan's central bank is expected to raise rates to 0.75%, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's easing plans, which may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia [4] Company News - Meg O'Neill has been appointed as the first female CEO of BP, leaving her position at Woodside Energy, which saw its shares drop by -2.7% following the announcement [5] - ANZ Group may retain executive pay despite shareholder dissatisfaction over compliance failures, indicating potential negotiations for a middle ground [6] - Boss Energy's shares plummeted by -24% after a negative update on uranium extraction, indicating lower grade and more challenging extraction processes [7] - Amaero Ltd secured a $4.6 million order for refractory powder from Titomic as part of a five-year partnership, with shipments expected in Q3 and Q4 FY26 [7] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 66.1 U.S. cents - Iron Ore prices increased by +1.3% to $105 per tonne, while Brent Crude remained stable at $59.72 per barrel, and Gold is priced at $4,333 per ounce [9]

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a decline, particularly in Asia and Europe, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of significant U.S. employment and inflation data [1][12] - U.S. stock futures indicated a lower opening, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.3% [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks were a major contributor to the market decline, with notable volatility observed in AI-linked stocks [6][12] - Speculative stocks showed gains, with Biodexa Pharmaceuticals surging nearly 60% to $7.63, AMC Robotics rising 35% to $9.83, and B. Riley Financial climbing almost 28% to $4.75 [3] Regional Insights - Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.6% to 49,383.29, influenced by weak manufacturing data, with the S&P Global Flash PMI rising to 49.7 in December from 48.7 in November, still below the expansion threshold [7][8] - Chinese stocks declined due to disappointing economic figures, with retail sales increasing only 1.3% year over year, the slowest since 2022 [9][10] - South Korea's Kospi dropped 2.2% to 3,999.13, heavily impacted by losses in chipmakers like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics [11] Oil Market - Oil prices decreased, with U.S. crude falling $1.08 to $55.74 per barrel and Brent crude dropping $1.06 to $59.50 [12] Economic Data Focus - The upcoming U.S. jobs report is expected to show a net gain of about 40,000 jobs, with unemployment projected to remain near 4.4% [13] - Inflation data due Thursday is forecasted to indicate a 3.1% year-over-year rise in consumer prices [13]

December 12, 2025 03:08 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global EUR/USD may re-test its previous highs should US labor market data disappoint and President Lagarde fail to explicitly push back on hike expectations from the ECB. JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish We closely monitor upcoming US labor market data next week. Any further weakness in US labor market data can open the door for USD/JPY to go 150.00, as we expect the BoJ to express further normalization at the upcoming December MPM. Our Latest Views Morgan S ...

Economic Indicators - Japan's economy contracted at a 2.3% annual pace in the July-September quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters [3] - The Bank of Japan's quarterly "tankan" survey showed a slight improvement in sentiment among big manufacturers, with optimism rising to 15 from 14, the highest level in four years [1][3] Investment Trends - Investment in fixed assets in China fell by 2.6% in November year-on-year, indicating a drop of 11.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year [5] - Retail sales in China rose by 4% from January to November, while factory output increased by 4.8% [5] Market Reactions - Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.3% to 50,168.11, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong declined by 1.4% to 25,625.60 [1][7] - Bitcoin's price dropped below $88,000 early Monday from about $92,000, recovering to just over $90,000 later in the day, as higher interest rates are expected to draw investment back into Japan [4]

The Bank of Japan is moving to raise its policy rate at the Dec. 18-19 monetary policy meeting with a 25-basis-point increase from 0.5% to 0.75% emerging as the leading option, Nikkei has learned. This would be the first hike since January 2025 and will lead to a level not seen since 1995. https://t.co/c0llUnfDKD ...

The Bank of Japan will raise its policy interest rate next week, resuming the hiking cycle for the first time since January, according to a Bloomberg survey of BOJ watchers https://t.co/XlGhrd3wQr ...

Stocks surged to session highs after Jerome Powell said interest rate hikes aren't "anybody's base case."The Dow added nearly 600 points, or about 1.2%, while the S&P 500 gained about 0.8%. The Nasdaq was up about 0.5%.Powell's comments aligned with the market's long-held belief that the Fed's next interest rate move will be a cut not a hike. This combined with a more optimistic economic outlook from the Fed helped boost stocks. ...