Dec 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said ​she sees no need to change ‌interest rates for months after the central bank cut ‌rates at its last three meetings, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is ⁠more worried about ‌elevated inflation than the potential labor-market fragility that prompted officials to ‍lower rates by a cumulative 75 basis points over the past several months,the report added. Hammack ​told the Jour ...

Core Insights - Fed officials are divided on whether to lower interest rates to boost the job market or maintain higher rates to combat inflation, with a recent rise in the unemployment rate adding to the debate [1][2][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a four-year high in November, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2][4] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the labor market is in danger, suggesting that the economy is creating approximately 60,000 fewer jobs each month than reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [6] Group 2: Policy Perspectives - Some Fed officials advocate for lowering interest rates to stimulate job growth, while others, like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, prioritize controlling inflation, which has exceeded the Fed's 2% target since 2021 [7][8] - The recent government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, making it difficult for the Fed to formulate a clear interest rate strategy [5][8]

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the fed funds rate by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting to stabilize the job market, but upcoming leadership changes may influence future rate decisions [2][4][10] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy Changes - The impending end of Chair Jerome Powell's term in May raises questions about the future direction of the Fed under new leadership, which could lead to different interest rate policies [2][4][10] - Market participants are increasingly focusing on the opinions of the incoming Fed chair rather than Powell's guidance as his term concludes [4][6] - The new leadership may align with President Trump's preference for lower interest rates, as indicated by market pricing for additional rate cuts compared to the Fed's projections [6][7][9] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The Fed's projections for future rate cuts have been complicated by a government shutdown that delayed key economic data, making it harder to assess the current economic landscape [8][9] - Financial markets are pricing in lower future interest rates than the Fed's forecasts, likely due to expectations of a more dovish approach from Trump's nominee for Fed chair [9][10] - The upcoming changes in the voting committee, with new members potentially being more hawkish, could further impact interest rate decisions [10][11] Group 3: Strategic Considerations for Powell - In his final months, Powell may focus on maintaining the Fed's independence and credibility rather than committing to specific rate cuts, as he navigates the transition to new leadership [12]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday following gains on Wednesday, with major indices showing lower futures [1][2] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction and highlighting a policy divide within the central bank [1] - The Fed will also resume quantitative easing by purchasing approximately $40 billion per month in shorter-maturity Treasury bills [1] Treasury Yields - The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was 4.14%, while the two-year bond yield stood at 3.53% [2] - Market expectations indicate an 80.1% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term [2] Stock Performance - Major indices showed the following premarket changes: Dow Jones -0.16%, S&P 500 -0.53%, Nasdaq 100 -0.72%, Russell 2000 -0.01% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) decreased by 0.52% to $683.99, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell by 0.72% to $623.08 [2] Company Highlights - Oracle Corp. experienced a significant drop of 11.01% after reporting mixed second-quarter results for fiscal 2026 [5] - Broadcom Inc. fell by 1.98% ahead of its earnings report, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.86 per share on revenue of $17.1491 billion [5] - Adobe Inc. saw a slight decline of 0.62% despite better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, projecting fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS between $17.90 and $18.10 [4][6] - Costco Wholesale Corp. rose by 0.18%, with analysts anticipating earnings of $5.39 per share on revenue of $6.11 billion [5] Analyst Insights - Expert opinions on the Federal Reserve's actions are divided, with some criticizing the resumption of Treasury purchases as a sign of systemic weakness [9] - Michael Burry expressed concerns about the implications of the Fed's actions, suggesting potential fragility in the banking system [9] - Conversely, some analysts remain optimistic about economic conditions, with projections indicating a favorable outlook [9][10] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures fell by 1.51% to around $57.59 per barrel, while gold prices decreased by 0.21% to approximately $4,219.72 per ounce [11] - Bitcoin traded 2.77% lower at $90,325.90 per coin [11] - Asian markets closed lower, with exceptions in India's NIFTY 50 and Australia's ASX 200 indices, while European markets showed gains in early trading [12]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday following gains on Wednesday, with major indices showing lower futures [1][2] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction and highlighting a policy divide within the central bank [1] - The Fed will also resume quantitative easing by purchasing approximately $40 billion in shorter-maturity Treasury bills each month [1] Treasury Yields - The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was 4.14%, while the two-year bond yield stood at 3.53% [2] - Market expectations indicate an 80.1% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates [2] Stock Performance - Major indices showed the following changes: Dow Jones -0.16%, S&P 500 -0.53%, Nasdaq 100 -0.72%, Russell 2000 -0.01% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) decreased by 0.52% to $683.99, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell by 0.72% to $623.08 in premarket trading [2] Company Highlights - Oracle Corp. experienced a significant drop of 11.01% after reporting mixed second-quarter results for fiscal 2026 [5] - Adobe Inc. saw a slight decline of 0.62% despite exceeding fourth-quarter earnings expectations, projecting fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS between $17.90 and $18.10 [4][6] - Broadcom Inc. fell by 1.98% ahead of its earnings report, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.86 per share on revenue of $17.1491 billion [5] - Costco Wholesale Corp. rose by 0.18%, with analysts anticipating earnings of $5.39 per share on revenue of $6.11 billion [5] Analyst Insights - Expert opinions on the Federal Reserve's actions are divided, with some criticizing the resumption of Treasury purchases as a sign of systemic weakness [9] - Michael Burry expressed concerns about the implications of the Fed's actions, while economist Peter Schiff labeled the strategy as "QE5" and warned of potential inflation [9] - Conversely, some analysts remain optimistic, with projections of favorable economic conditions [9][10] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures fell by 1.51% to around $57.59 per barrel, while gold prices decreased by 0.21% to approximately $4,219.72 per ounce [11] - Bitcoin traded 2.77% lower at $90,325.90 per coin [11] - Asian markets closed lower, with exceptions in India's NIFTY 50 and Australia's ASX 200 indices, while European markets showed gains in early trading [12]

The FOMC raised its 2025 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6% in September and raised its 2026 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 1.8% in September. The FOMC cut its 2025 core PCE price estimate to 3.0% from 3.1% in September and cut its 2026 core PCE price estimate to 2.5% from 2.6% in September.The Fed's "dot plot" of interest rate projections shows the median forecast for the fed funds rate is 3.375% for the end of 2026, implying one 25 bp rate cut next year, unchanged from September.The FOMC, as expected, cut the fed ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment and liquidity challenges are impacting XRP's price momentum, with AI forecasts suggesting modest growth rather than aggressive increases [1][2][6]. Market Sentiment and Price Action - XRP is trading below key moving averages, indicating a stalled uptrend, with the Relative Strength Index around neutral, reflecting a lack of strong buy or sell pressure [1]. - ChatGPT predicts XRP could reach approximately $4.40 by Q1 2026, which is only slightly above current levels around $2, and far from its previous peak of $3.84 [3][4]. Liquidity Challenges - The broader crypto ecosystem is facing liquidity issues, highlighted by over $900 million in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in November 2025, contributing to a total monthly outflow of $3.79 billion [2][6]. - Elevated Treasury yields above 4.5% are providing conservative investors with safer alternatives, further draining liquidity from the crypto market [7]. Diverging Analyst Predictions - While AI models suggest a tempered climb for XRP, seasoned analysts believe it could reach $5 to $6 by the end of 2026, reflecting a significant gap in expectations [4][6]. - Analysts attribute their more optimistic outlook to potential catalysts such as legal clarity, network growth, and stablecoin adoption [9][12]. Legal and Technological Developments - A recent court ruling clarified that secondary sales of XRP are not securities, boosting its appeal for banks and payment providers [5][9]. - Ripple's launch of the RLUSD stablecoin in December 2024 has created potential secondary demand for XRP, with RLUSD now exceeding a $1 billion market cap [11][12]. Macroeconomic Factors - Analysts note that anticipated rate cuts in 2026 could make risk assets like XRP more attractive, potentially restoring liquidity to the crypto market [13][14]. - The next Bitcoin halving, expected in early 2028, may also trigger a broader crypto cycle that could benefit XRP [14]. Technical Analysis - Technical chart analysis indicates that if XRP can break above key resistance near $2.60, it could set the stage for a rally towards the mid-$3 range and beyond [15][16]. - Analysts using Fibonacci extensions and Elliott waves suggest that a rally towards $5 to $6 is plausible if investor sentiment improves [16]. Conclusion - The contrasting views on XRP's future highlight the uncertainty in the current market, with AI models emphasizing caution while analysts see potential catalysts for growth [17][18].

Summary of Standard Bank Group Limited Update / Briefing Company Overview - **Company**: Standard Bank Group Limited (OTCPK:SGBL.Y) - **Date of Call**: December 01, 2025 - **Participants**: CFO Arno Daehnke, Business Unit CFOs, and other executives Key Industry Insights - **Macroeconomic Environment**: - Global economic activity remains resilient despite geopolitical uncertainties - IMF revised global growth projections for 2025 to **3.2%** from **3.0%** in July 2025 [3][4] - Inflation has declined, allowing for monetary policy easing in many countries [3] - Interest rates have decreased in most sub-Saharan African countries, with notable cuts in Ghana (900 basis points to **18%**), Mozambique (325 basis points to **9.5%**), and Kenya (200 basis points to **9.25%**) [4] - **South Africa's Economic Outlook**: - Improved environment with declining inflation and interest rates; repo rate reduced to **ZAR 6.75%** [5] - Expected real GDP growth of **1.0%** for 2025 and **1.3%** for 2026 [7] - S&P Global Ratings upgraded South Africa's local currency credit rating to **BB+** with a positive outlook [6] Financial Performance Highlights - **Banking Revenue**: Grew by mid to high single digits year-on-year [8] - **Net Interest Income (NII)**: Growth driven by strong origination in investment banking, particularly in energy and infrastructure [9] - **Deposit Growth**: Strong in both South Africa and Africa regions, with **8%** year-on-year growth in South Africa as of September 2025 [9] - **Credit Loss Ratio**: Approximately **70-100 basis points** for the 10 months to October 2025, with provisions in Malawi and Mozambique due to sovereign stress [10] Operational Trends - **Insurance and Asset Management**: Robust performance with higher earnings driven by improved retail life insurance and claims ratio [11] - **Investment Banking**: Strong performance in precious metals and energy sectors, contributing positively to Group earnings [12] - **Cost Management**: Cost growth contained despite increased activity-related costs, with revenue growth slightly ahead of cost growth [10] Guidance and Future Outlook - **2025 Guidance**: - Banking revenue growth of mid to high single digits - NII growth at low to mid single digits - Non-interest revenue growth at high single digits [13] - **Long-term Targets (2026-2028)**: - Compound average headline earnings growth per share of **8%-12%** - Return on equity of **18%-22%** [13] Additional Insights - **M&A Considerations**: Exploring opportunities in Kenya, focusing on maintaining diversification and not exceeding **5-6%** of group earnings from any single country [45] - **Retail Asset Quality**: Improvement in non-performing loans (NPLs) with a steady recovery expected [33] - **Black Friday Performance**: Positive year-on-year growth observed, indicating improved consumer activity [32] Conclusion - Standard Bank Group continues to perform well, supported by a diversified portfolio and positive macroeconomic trends. The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic with expected growth in various sectors, particularly in investment banking and retail lending. The Group is committed to maintaining strong financial health and delivering on its strategic targets.

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair is seen as aligning closely with the administration's dovish stance on interest rates, which contrasts with the current consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1][2][5] Group 1: Nomination and Market Perception - Kevin Hassett is perceived by markets as a candidate who shares the administration's views on interest rates, which are more dovish compared to the current FOMC consensus [1][2] - The administration is likely to seek a candidate who is respected by markets and maintains central bank independence while also aligning with the president's policies [5][6] Group 2: Challenges and Considerations - If Hassett is appointed, he will face challenges in convincing other FOMC members to adopt his views on lowering interest rates, as the committee operates through a democratic process [4] - The administration's goal of lowering interest rates is seen as a potential constraint on the economy, raising questions about the feasibility of achieving this objective without triggering inflation concerns [6][7] - There is a risk that even if the Fed funds rate decreases, longer-term Treasury yields could rise due to market concerns about inflation and credibility, indicating that rate cuts may not lead to lower long-term yields [8]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced volatility but ended positively on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 all gaining around 1% [2] - Daily percentage changes were: Dow +1.08% (+493 points), S&P 500 +0.98% (+64 points), and Nasdaq +0.88% (+195 points) [3] Company Highlights - **Cava (NYSE: CAVA)**: The Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant chain saw a significant stock increase of 12% on Friday. Despite earlier disappointing third-quarter results and a reduced full-year outlook for 2025, investors are becoming more optimistic about the stock's valuation. Cava's expansion strategy includes opening 17 new locations in three months, raising concerns about consumer interest in fast-casual dining [4] - **WillScot Holdings (NASDAQ: WSC)**: The mobile office and storage container company gained 11% after analysts at Baird upgraded the stock from neutral to outperform and raised the price target from $20 to $22 per share. The company has faced stagnant performance over the past five years, but analysts believe it may now have the opportunity to develop a viable strategy for growth, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which could benefit its customers [5] Market Sentiment - Overall market sentiment improved as investors became more confident following previous declines, with Cava and WillScot Holdings being notable gainers on Friday [6]