💥BREAKING:🇬🇧 BANK OF ENGLAND CUTS RATES TO 4%FED MUST BE NEXT! ...

A Reserve Bank of India panel recommended that the central bank take a more flexible approach to managing how it provides money to lenders https://t.co/P1mkhxkUwy ...

August 1, 2025 04:37 PM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America It's the unemployment rate The Fed said slower employment growth need not signal weakness so long as labor supply slows by a similar amount, keeping the unemployment rate low. Powell said the unemployment rate is a better gauge of maximum employment than payrolls or growth in economic activity. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael T Gapen Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0571 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@mor ...

3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26 Nov-26 Total nonfarm payrolls (000s) Unemployment rate -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 PCE inflation (m/m, %) Core Headline MS Forecast Source: BEA, BLS, Morgan Stanley Research August 4, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing The Weekly Worl ...

First of all, I'm not going to let the BLS off the hook. I mean, you know, you talk about how to fix it. You know, make these questionnaires mandatory and give them a time limit to fill it out.Um, you know, I mean, I think the the the response rates down to 60%. I mean, that's un unacceptable for the most important statistic that we have. It's almost like we're sending them out, you know, fill it out when you can.We know you like to go to the beach in the summer, so it might be a little bit late. Um, you kn ...

You do think the setup is largely about September and how they line that up. And you point out that some of the data has been reassuring. Some of it does point to maybe some below potential growth, right.Yeah. Look, um, we know what's happening this week, right. The Fed is not going to cut.They're going to stick to the wait and see through the summer approach, make the decision in September. Though the two Trump appointees, Waller and Bowman, will, I think, descent in favor of an immediate cut. So yeah, the ...

This is a story about pressure. This week, the Fed held its July meeting just a week after President Trump visited Chair Jay Powell at his office to tell him what he thinks the central bank should do. -Too Late. I call him Too Late Powell because he's always too late.Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed. I'd do a much better job than these people. Well, I'd love him to lower interest rates, but other than that, what can I tell you.But the president's visit did not persuade Fed Chair Powell to lower rat ...

Europe is cutting rates.China is cutting rates.The FED is next! 🚀 https://t.co/9dP1q2qaVC ...

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the recent labor market reports this week and how it is affecting markets. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. If you're curious about this stuff uh more timely, we do have the ITC macro Twitter account that you can follow along with. I'll also tweet stuff out from m ...

Economic Outlook - The employment report is weaker than expected due to downward revisions, raising recession fears, but the analysis suggests a "rolling recession" [2] - The expectation is for a strong recovery, possibly starting as a "rolling recovery", with upside surprises in real growth and productivity, and downside surprises on inflation by the midterm elections next year [5][6] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly concerning Russia-Ukraine, China, and Mexico, but the biggest uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy [7][8] Fiscal Policy - Year-to-date deficit as a percentage of GDP has shrunk from approximately 73% to 62% [10] - Tariffs are annualizing at an estimated $450 billion per year, potentially leading to a deficit of roughly 47% of GDP [10] - The analysis suggests that the deficit as a percentage of GDP could reach 3% by the end of 2026, two years ahead of the Treasury Secretary's objective [11][12] - Approximately 75% of capital spending will benefit from permanent expensing, which is expected to attract manufacturing back to the United States and boost productivity [18] - Factoring in expensing, the US corporate tax rate could effectively drop to the 12-14% range [19] Monetary Policy - Despite Chairman Powell's hawkish tone, the data suggests the Fed may ease, with odds for a rate cut in September up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut at approximately 25% [4] - Real private domestic final sales are growing at approximately 1%, indicating cautious consumer behavior and a rising savings rate, potentially crossing 5% this year [21][22] - The 2-year Treasury yield less the 3-month Treasury yield is below zero, indicating restrictive monetary policy, which historically precedes recessions [26] - Truflation, which measures thousands of items in real time, suggests that inflation may stabilize and then decline towards or below 2% [33][24] Market Indicators - Economic policy uncertainty reached unprecedented levels during tariff turmoil, even higher than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [36] - Revisions to non-farm payrolls were extreme, typically seen only in recessions, confirming the "rolling recession" [47] - Federal government employees are down by 84000 year-to-date, with an expected additional 150000 layoffs by the end of September, potentially impacting consumer confidence [48][49] - The consumer confidence index shows a decline in jobs being easy to get, suggesting potential economic weakness [51][52]