Look, importantly, uh, markets rely on the independence of the Fed and the Fed's commitment to achieving its congressionally mandated goals of price stability and maximum employment in uh, assessing the soundness of the US economy and their security in terms of um, returns they can expect investing in the United States. And when a president threatens to remove a chair unless he radically lowers interest rates with the stated purpose um of helping the government finance its borrowing um not the congressional ...

Do you have questions about that just in terms of targeting inflation. I mean, they were late. They were late.They thought inflation was transitory. Now, it's not clear whether they're late uh when it comes to cutting rates again. But issues like that, them using certain models, academic, PhD, economists, the group think.Are are there are there real questions to ask around all this. There are always really important questions to ask about monetary policy. It's extremely important for the Fed to be entirely ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The US economy is showing signs of strength with improved sentiment and strong retail sales [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is perceived to be in a comfortable position to observe economic developments before making policy changes, given the unemployment rate is near the natural rate and inflation is moderating [2] - The Fed is expected to re-engage with its recalibration campaign, potentially starting in September, to further lower rates [4] - The committee anticipates the neutral rate to be around 3%, suggesting further room for rate cuts [10] - A more realistic estimate for the neutral rate might be 325% to 350%, allowing the Fed some flexibility [11] - The Fed aims to bring inflation down to the lower end of the 2% range and ideally asymptote to 2% [11] Inflation & Fed's Response - The Fed's 2022 policy of sharply increasing the policy rate successfully reduced inflation without causing a recession [6] - The Fed's actions were followed globally, with some emerging markets even anticipating and moving ahead of the Fed [8] Fiscal Policy Impact - Some believe the Fed misplayed the 2021 episode, partly due to substantial expenditure authorized by Congress and the White House, which fueled inflation [6]

President Trump. Um, enough about me. Now you talk about him.Confirming he has no plans to fire Fed chair J. Pal, downplaying earlier reports that suggested otherwise. Joining us now with the latest on this story and what firing pal could mean for the markets, Nick Timosro, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent.Earlier, Nick, we Fed whisperer. Fed he is. He's uh he's got if you read it from him, you you probably can trust u what he's saying.But my point earlier was, have you ever heard anyone ar ...

Market Trends & Uncertainty - Treasury yields are reacting to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future, independence, and potential changes in monetary policy [1] - PPI data was mixed, with cooler-than-expected figures offset by later revisions, suggesting minimal impact on the overall economic landscape [2] - A headline about Mr Trump firing Pal caused market fluctuations, but the market reaction suggests the story isn't being taken very seriously [3][7] Bond Market Reaction - The 30-year Treasury yield hovered around 5%, then moved up to 507 and a half after the headline [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield moved from 444 to 448 and a half, a 45 basis points increase [4] - The two-year Treasury yield moved down from 391 to 386, showing a different reaction compared to the 10-year and 30-year yields, possibly influenced by cooler-than-expected PPI [5] Currency Market - The dollar index initially broke down from 9870 to 9780, a move of slightly less than a full cent, but quickly bounced back, indicating speculative forces at play [6] Overall Market Sentiment - The market is anticipating continued rhetoric and pressure from the administration, but the impact on the Federal Reserve's actions remains uncertain [7]

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Bretton Woods System Overview - The Bretton Woods system aimed to establish a stable international monetary system to foster global trade and economic stability after World War II [6] - The system placed the US at the center of the economic universe, with the US dollar pegged to gold at $35 per troy ounce, and other countries pegged their currencies to the dollar [21][22] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were created to oversee the system, promote economic development, and ensure adherence to the fixed parity system [25] Systemic Flaws and Challenges - The system's reliance on a national currency (the US dollar) as the primary source of international liquidity contained an inherent contradiction, known as the Triffin dilemma [32] - The US's persistent balance of payments deficits led to a flood of dollars, eroding confidence in the dollar's convertibility into gold [36] - The US did not actively manage its exchange rate, placing the burden of adjustment on other countries and creating an "exorbitant privilege" for the US [28][31] Demise of Bretton Woods - Countries began swapping dollars for gold, leading to a depletion of US gold reserves [41][42] - On August 15, 1971, President Nixon ended the convertibility of dollars into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system [44] - The end of Bretton Woods led to a system of free-floating exchange rates and a terminal decline in the value of many currencies [47] Legacy and Implications - Bretton Woods institutionalized the dollar's global role as the dominant reserve currency [21] - The system's flaws led to the erosion of the US domestic manufacturing base and a growing net international investment position deficit [39] - The end of Bretton Woods marked the birth of fiat currency, backed by nothing but the issuer's monopoly on violence [46]

Core Viewpoint - Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) is expected to report solid growth in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, driven by market volatility and increased client activity [3][9]. Financial Performance - IBKR's second-quarter revenue is estimated at $1.33 billion, reflecting an 8.5% year-over-year increase [3]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share has been revised upward by 4.7% to 45 cents, indicating a 2.3% rise from the previous year [4]. - Commission revenues are projected to rise 19.9% year-over-year to $486.8 million [9]. - Other fees and services are expected to grow by 6.5% to $72.4 million, while other income is estimated at $16.5 million, a significant recovery from losses of $36 million in the prior year [10]. Cost and Expenses - Total non-interest expenses are anticipated to be $365.3 million, marking a 4.4% increase year-over-year due to investments in platform capabilities and regulatory compliance [12]. - Net interest income (NII) is expected to decline by 4.3% to $758 million, impacted by lower interest rates [11]. Market Activity - The second quarter saw heightened client activity due to market volatility related to tariff concerns and Federal Reserve monetary policy [3][9]. - A four-for-one stock split was implemented, which began trading on June 18, 2025, likely boosting investor interest [2][9]. Earnings Surprise History - IBKR has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.38% [6][8]. Stock Performance - IBKR's stock performance in the second quarter was strong, outperforming industry peers such as Charles Schwab and Tradeweb Markets [15].

Why don't we start off with that that last bit from Deutsche Bank, uh the potential decline in the dollar if this were to happen and also the spike in yields, do you see a similar setup. And I do think it's important to note that while a lot of this talk has gone on, we've actually seen the dollar move higher, up about a half a percent over the last week. Yeah, absolutely.The the dollar has rebounded a bit in in the last couple of weeks, but I think um you know, fundamentally the administration seemed to be ...

Kevin, I think you intimated that it might be possible to fire uh uh Chair Pal. What what would be how does that how does that process work in your view. Well, again, we'll we'll see how the Fed responds to this incredible cost overrun.The bottom line is from from my perspective that when the Federal Reserve was created, we were under a gold standard. And the idea that the Fed could print money and then spend two and a half billion dollars on a building without real real congressional oversight, it didn't o ...