Everyone wanted a crypto moonshot. For OG Bitcoin holders deep in green, perhaps the FOMC event didn’t matter much. However, all smart degens who bought the top, Jerome Powell, and the Federal Reserve were their only saviors. There was so much hope for the Bitcoin price to move higher until it didn’t, and as Murphy’s Law struck, the world’s most valuable crypto crashed, falling by -5% below $110,000. The Bitcoin price, and crypto in general, is yet to recover from yesterday’s crickets. With hopes smashed, ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion [1] - Policy is not on a preset course [1] - The committee has not made a decision about December [2] - The committee will be looking at the data, how that affects the outlook and the balance of risks [2] Committee Dynamics - There were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December [1][2] - There are strong views across the committee [2] - There are 19 participants on the committee [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Federal Reserve System Update / Briefing Industry Overview - The briefing primarily discusses the economic outlook and monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, focusing on employment, inflation, and interest rates. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Adjustment**: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75% to 4% to support maximum employment and stable prices [1][4][6]. 2. **Economic Growth**: GDP growth was reported at 1.6% for the first half of the year, down from 2.4% the previous year, with stronger consumer spending noted as a key driver [2][49]. 3. **Labor Market Conditions**: The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job gains slowing significantly and the unemployment rate remaining low at 4.3% [2][54]. There are concerns about declining labor force participation and immigration affecting job availability [3][38]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: Inflation remains elevated, with total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rising 2.8% over the past year. Core PCE prices also increased by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4][24]. 5. **Risks to Employment and Inflation**: The balance of risks has shifted, with downside risks to employment increasing and upside risks to inflation remaining [5][58]. The FOMC is navigating a challenging situation where one goal may conflict with the other [5][58]. 6. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC plans to cease the reduction of aggregate securities holdings as of December 1, indicating a shift towards a more neutral policy stance [6][8][21]. 7. **Diverse Views within the Committee**: There are strongly differing views among committee members regarding future policy actions, particularly concerning the potential for further rate cuts in December [10][36][58]. 8. **Impact of Tariffs**: Higher tariffs are contributing to inflation in certain goods, but the FOMC believes these effects may be short-lived and should not lead to ongoing inflation problems [4][25][40]. 9. **Investment in AI and Infrastructure**: Significant investments in AI and infrastructure are noted, with the FOMC indicating that these investments are not particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [27][28][48]. 10. **Consumer Spending**: Despite a cooling labor market, consumer spending remains strong, particularly among higher-income consumers, which is a significant driver of economic growth [48][49]. Other Important Considerations - **Data Availability**: The ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed some important economic data, complicating the FOMC's ability to assess the labor market and inflation accurately [2][19][50]. - **Long-term Inflation Expectations**: Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal, despite current elevated levels [4][24]. - **K-shaped Economic Recovery**: The economy is exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, where higher-income consumers are faring better than those at the lower end of the income spectrum [32][55]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the Federal Reserve's briefing, highlighting the current economic landscape, monetary policy decisions, and the challenges faced by the committee.

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate. With downside risks to employment having increased in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another st ...

ToplineThe Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to lower interest rates again, the second straight month the central bank eased monetary policy after months of pressure and criticism from President Donald Trump, who has called for steeper cuts. Some policymakers have expressed caution about lowering rates further, while President Donald Trump and his recent appointee have pushed for steep cuts.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.Key FactsThe Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 in fav ...

BREAKING: Caterpillar Jumps As AI Data Center Boom Fuels GrowthA Federal Reserve rate cut is in the bag for today's meeting, which wraps up with a 2 p.m. ET policy statement and a 2:30 p.m. news conference from Chair Jerome Powell. Wall Street also sees a good chance the Powell will signal an end to balance-sheet tightening. That should be enough to keep the S&P 500 rally going for a fifth straight session and a fourth consecutive record closing high.Monetary policy is a tailwind for markets as economic unc ...

Core Insights - The rising popularity of U.S. dollar stablecoins is expected to pose challenges for global monetary policy in the coming year [1] - The global market capitalization of U.S. dollar stablecoins has exceeded $300 billion, driven by favorable regulations in the U.S. [3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implications - The introduction of dollar stablecoins will create challenges for monetary transmission and seigniorage benefits for countries [1] - Stablecoins will compete with banks as financial intermediaries and in attracting customer deposits [2] Group 2: Regional Context - India's existing instant domestic payments system, Unified Payments Interface (UPI), reduces the necessity for stablecoins compared to advanced economies [2] - India is currently not inclined to create legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies [3]

Economic Indicators - U.S. consumer confidence declined by 1.0 point to 94.6 in October, reflecting concerns over a softening labor market and high living costs [2][7] - The Expectations Index fell by 2.9 points to 71.5, remaining below the 80-point threshold that often signals an impending recession [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and 79,000 in July [2] Corporate News - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) raised its 2025 earnings outlook, projecting adjusted net earnings of at least $16.25 per share and net earnings of at least $14.90 per share [3][7] - The company reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $113.2 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with UnitedHealthcare revenues climbing 16% to $87.1 billion [3] - Despite the positive outlook, UnitedHealth anticipates significant pressure on its Medicaid business in 2026 [3][7] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) confirmed that recent interest rate cuts are effectively easing borrowing costs, with the Official Cash Rate (OCR) lowered by 50 basis points to 2.5% [4][7] - Financial conditions in New Zealand have improved, with credit flowing more easily across the economy [4] Legal and Regulatory Issues - Edison International (EIX) faces potential liability related to the Eaton Fire, with the U.S. Department of Justice suing Southern California Edison for over $40 million in costs [5] - The company's valuation has reportedly dropped from $30 billion to $22.6 billion since the fires [5] European Politics - Centrist groups in the European Parliament are demanding significant changes to the proposed €2 trillion seven-year budget for the EU, citing concerns over renationalization of funds and lack of parliamentary oversight [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The yen has rebounded after verbal intervention from Japanese officials, while US and Japanese leaders have committed to enhancing security ties and defense funding [1][2]. Currency Performance - The yen rose by as much as 0.7% against the dollar, marking its first day of gains in eight, although it remains near its weakest level since February and is the worst performing currency among the Group-of-10 this month, having declined approximately 3% against the dollar [1]. Government Response - Japan's Minister for Growth Strategy, Minoru Kiuchi, stated that authorities will continue to monitor the effects of yen weakness on the economy [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the importance of sound monetary policy in mitigating excessive currency fluctuations during discussions with Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama [3]. Market Sentiment - Derek Halpenny from MUFG Bank Ltd. noted that the US Treasury's statement suggests that the current monetary policy of the Bank of Japan may no longer be justified, indicating a potential decrease in appetite for selling the yen at current USD/JPY levels [4]. - There is an expectation of no change in interest rates from the Bank of Japan in the upcoming meeting, although pressure for a hike is increasing due to high inflation and ongoing yen weakness [4]. Broader Economic Context - Attention is shifting to the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with traders anticipating a quarter-point rate cut. Additionally, Amazon's announcement of cutting approximately 14,000 jobs raises concerns regarding the US labor market's health [5]. - The yen's recent performance is attributed to mild verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, with market focus heightened due to a lack of US data amid a government shutdown [6].

China: PBOC Q3 Surveys: Loan demand and business conditions marginally better, employment sentiment weak but households want to Bottom line: PBOC released its Q3 surveys of bank loan officers, enterprises, and urban depositors on October 24. The latest data paint a mixed picture, with credit demand and business conditions improving marginally while household price expectations and employment sentiment declining further. PBOC's bank survey suggests loan demand edged up in Q3, and loan approvals remained flat ...