Economic Data Summary - The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding expectations of 70,000 and nearly tripling December's revised figure of 48,000 [1] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, while wage growth accelerated by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year [2] - Job growth for the entirety of 2025 was revised down to an average of 15,000 per month, totaling 181,000, marking the weakest year outside of a recession since 2003 [3] Market Reactions - Following the strong labor data, market expectations for interest rate cuts were trimmed, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June dropping from approximately 75% to 57% [6] - The likelihood of two rate cuts by year-end also softened, with Fed futures indicating a small chance that rates remain unchanged throughout 2026 [7] Political Commentary - President Trump emphasized the positive job numbers while downplaying the significant downward revisions, advocating for lower interest rates based on the strong economic performance [4] - Trump's assertion that strong economic data justifies lower rates contrasts with traditional monetary policy views, which typically see robust labor markets as reducing the need for rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is set to continue significant Treasury bill purchases into the spring, with uncertainty regarding actions post the annual tax filing deadline in mid-April [1][5]. Group 1: Treasury Bill Purchases - The Federal Reserve is currently purchasing approximately $40 billion per month in Treasury bills and other short-term government bonds to rebuild reserves and manage liquidity as the tax filing date approaches [3][4]. - The overall System Open Market Account (SOMA) holdings have reached $6.2 trillion, indicating a substantial level of asset management by the Fed [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Fed officials expect the current elevated levels of purchases to continue until mid-April, after which a significant reduction in purchase amounts is anticipated [4][5]. - Post mid-April, the monthly purchase amounts will likely fluctuate based on the outlook for reserves supply and demand, as well as market conditions [5].

Core Insights - Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are preparing for potential volatility due to the delayed US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report set to be released this week [1][2] - The recent stronger-than-expected jobs report has shifted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reinforcing a "higher-for-longer" interest-rate outlook [2] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh, a pro-Bitcoin advocate, as the new Federal Reserve Chair could lead to long-term changes in monetary policy affecting Bitcoin's market trajectory [3] Market Reactions - If the upcoming CPI data exceeds 2.5%, Bitcoin may break below the critical psychological support level of $60,000, where institutional buy orders are concentrated [4] - Conversely, a lower-than-expected inflation reading could push Bitcoin back towards the resistance level of $74,400 [4] - Current data indicates a nearly 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in the near term [5] Economic Context - The ongoing "crypto winter" that began in January 2025 shows signs of recovery, but immediate price movements are closely tied to the forthcoming inflation data [6]

is joining us now is Julia Coronado, founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives. And Julia, it's great to uh to see you. Um now, I think David Einhorn was basically making a call that says Kevin Walsh is kind of going to do the president's bidding and therefore he's in the job to cut rates.Uh but it would seem as if the data are kind of I I guess in the middle. Uh they're subject to interpretation in terms of whether the Fed needs to respond anytime soon or where even the neutral rate is. So, how di ...

So, next up with President Trump is waste, fraud, and abuse, including Jay Powell. Check it out. Tim Scott, Senator Scott, is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. Um, he wants to get Kevin Walsh up and going for his hearings and he wants to get him passed, but it's being blocked uh by Senator Tillis in North Carolina. But Tim Scott said, "Okay, J. pal inept. No question about that.I I think he's done more to under undermine Fed independence in addition to his poor monetary decision. >> He's been terrib ...

Hello everyone. Inflation is crashing. The Fed nominee wants to strike a deal with the Treasury.Record tax refunds are starting to hit consumer pockets. And Jensen Hong says that we are going through a generational buildout of infrastructure. We are live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. Right now, we have 43,516 of you there.Hit the subscribe button and let's get into today's episode. All righ ...

Market Overview - US stock futures declined slightly as investors prepared for a week filled with economic data and corporate earnings, following a record close for the Dow above 50,000 [1] - The Dow surged over 1,200 points, or 2.5%, marking its first close above 50,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both rose around 2% [2] Economic Data - The delayed January employment report is set to be released on Wednesday, with expectations tempered after ADP reported only 22,000 private-sector job additions last month, a significant drop from 140,000 year-over-year [4] - January's consumer price index will also be released on Friday, following a delay due to a government shutdown [5] Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports this week include Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Cisco, and ON Semiconductor, which will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Currency and Commodities - The dollar index has decreased by 10% since President Trump took office, despite the nomination of Kevin Warsh, viewed as a policy hawk [6] - Gold prices rose above $5,000 an ounce as dip-buyers returned after a volatile week for precious metals [3][7] Company News - QuantumScape's stock increased by 14% following the launch of its "Eagle Line," a pilot factory aimed at mass-producing battery parts [8] - The Nikkei 225 surged 4.7% after the governing party of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a supermajority in elections, indicating a potential for market-friendly policies [9] - Markets across Asia also saw gains, with South Korea's Kospi rising 4.3% as technology stocks in the US rebounded [10]

We're speaking with the Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, who is retiring at the end of this month. So this is sort of your HR exit interview. Mike, it's always good to see you.I want to ask you, as you travel around your district for the past year, what's the mood like among companies and consumers. We've seen the surveys show that people are getting very, very pessimistic. - Well, I'd say it runs in two ways.So, first of all, what has been true throughout the last year is a tremendous amount of resili ...

From New York City for viewers worldwide, I'm Scarlet Fu. The new one hour edition of Bloomberg Real Yield starts right now. Coming up, traders adding to rate cut bets on the heels of weaker than expected jobs data.We'll be getting insight from Oksana ARONOFF of JPMorgan Asset Management and Jeff Sherman of DoubleLine Capital. And a sell off in software debt pushes billions of dollars of loans into distressed territory. We begin with the big issue, the health of the US economy.We haven't yet really seen a t ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.19% due to reduced liquidity demand from a rally in equity markets and negative carryover from weaker US labor market news, which increased the chance of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to 19% from 8% [1] - The dollar reached a 4-year low when President Trump expressed comfort with its weakness, compounded by foreign investors withdrawing capital amid a growing budget deficit and political polarization [2] - The University of Michigan US Feb consumer sentiment index rose unexpectedly by +0.9 to a 6-month high of 57.3, while 1-year inflation expectations fell to a 13-month low of 3.5% [3] Group 2 - US Dec consumer credit increased by $24.045 billion, significantly surpassing expectations of $8.000 billion, marking the largest increase in a year [4] - Hawkish comments from Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target, supported the dollar [5] - Swaps markets are pricing in a 19% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting, with expectations of a -50 basis point cut by 2026 [6] Group 3 - The EUR/USD pair recovered from a 2-week low, finishing up by +0.37% after initial declines due to weaker German industrial production, but rebounded following better-than-expected German trade news [7]