Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have extended losses, with NY world sugar 11 down by 0.30 (-1.80%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 down by 7.60 (-1.66%), reaching a 2-week low [1] - The decline in sugar prices is attributed to a projected global sugar surplus of +4.1 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by +15.7% year-on-year (y/y) to 3.622 MMT, contributing to bearish market sentiment [3] - The sugar content in Brazil's Center-South sugarcane dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in the first half of September, down from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 53.49% in the second half of August, compared to 47.74% the same time last year [3] Group 3: India's Sugar Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rain as of September 30 was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% y/y increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a -17.5% y/y decline in 2024/25 [4] - Sugar trader Sucden indicated that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant increase, with NY sugar reaching a 4-week high and London sugar a 1.5-week high, driven by dollar weakness and stronger global demand, particularly from Pakistan's order of 320,000 MT of sugar for immediate delivery [1] Group 1: Current Market Trends - NY sugar futures rose by +0.15 (+0.94%) and London ICE white sugar increased by +6.50 (+1.41%) [1] - The recent dollar weakness is supportive for sugar prices, alongside indications of stronger global demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A projection by StoneX indicates a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MT in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with expectations of 4 MMT, surpassing earlier estimates of 2 MMT [4] Group 3: Global Production and Consumption Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25, with production expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [5] - The USDA projects a record global sugar production of +4.7% year-on-year to 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-on-year [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, influenced by a rise in crude oil prices, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift towards ethanol production [1] - Global sugar supplies are projected to be abundant, with a forecasted surplus of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of 4.7 MMT in the previous season [2] - Brazil's sugar output has increased significantly, with a reported 18% year-on-year rise in the second half of August, which is expected to negatively impact sugar prices [3] - India is anticipated to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production, which may lead to increased exports of sugar, further contributing to the global surplus [4] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has forecasted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although the deficit is expected to improve compared to the previous season [5] Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 increased by 0.23 (+1.51%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by 8.40 (+1.86%) [1] - Sugar prices reached a 4.25-year low for NY sugar and a 4-year low for London sugar earlier in the day [2] Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output for the second half of August was reported at 3.872 MMT, with an increase in the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August decreased by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] Global Supply and Demand - The ISO projects a global sugar production increase of 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season, while global consumption is expected to rise by 0.3% to 180.8 MMT [5]