BREAKING#Ethereum supply on exchanges hits its lowest level since 2016. https://t.co/TuxKSGVCDu ...

Group 1 - The markets have experienced turbulence as the initial excitement around AI has waned, prompting investors to shift towards traditional stocks and emerging markets [1][2] - There is a growing "secular uncertainty" affecting economic and business logic, influenced by geopolitical factors and consumer behavior [2][3] - The current environment complicates the ability to identify successful mega-trends, necessitating a more detailed approach to investment opportunities [3][4] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to seek out markets that are incomplete or "broken," such as private credit in emerging markets, which presents a favorable supply and demand scenario [5] - In volatile markets, high-quality assets can be acquired at significant discounts as investors liquidate positions to raise cash, creating opportunities for those with agility [6]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility this week, with multiple major products showing sharp fluctuations, driven by supply-demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced substantial corrections, while agricultural products like soybean meal and soybean oil continued to show weakness [1] - Coking coal strengthened due to expectations of production cuts in Indonesia, while lithium carbonate continued its downward trend under pressure from inventory changes and the end of pre-holiday stocking [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The precious metals market was the most volatile sector this week, with gold futures dropping over 4% and silver plummeting more than 27%, marking the largest weekly decline of the year [2] - This correction was primarily due to a rapid retreat of risk aversion, as previous premiums driven by Middle Eastern tensions and global central bank gold purchases quickly dissipated following signs of easing in US-Iran relations [2] - Investors rushed to close their risk-hedging positions, pushing prices downward, while a strengthening US dollar further pressured dollar-denominated precious metals [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices fell as geopolitical risks eased, with Shanghai aluminum futures coming under downward pressure as concerns over regional supply diminished [3] - The Middle East accounts for nearly 10% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity, but the actual supply disruption risk is lower than market expectations due to differences in production structures and logistics [3] - As tensions cooled, the "risk premium" in aluminum prices was gradually erased, although domestic alumina maintenance led to short-term supply tightening [3] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector remained weak, with soybean meal and soybean oil experiencing significant declines, primarily due to reinforced expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America [4] - The USDA's January report raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 178 million tons, a record high, with some institutions estimating it could reach 182 million tons [4] - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, significantly ahead of last year's pace, leading to increased concerns about the influx of new season soybeans [4] Group 5: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures continued their downward trend, with market logic returning to fundamentals [5] - Weekly data showed a decrease in social inventory by 1,414 tons, but a clear structural divergence was evident, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,007 tons while upstream decreased by 831 tons [5] - The market reflected that terminal demand had not effectively recovered, and with pre-holiday stocking largely completed, the market's pricing for first-quarter destocking expectations was nearly finalized [5]

Core Insights - The Retail Momentum Index is a new data and analytics solution created through a collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, aimed at providing a leading indicator of retail trade activity in the U.S. [1][2] - The index integrates various data sources, including shipping data and business activity signals, to offer a comprehensive view of retail momentum, allowing businesses to detect trends before they appear in traditional reports [2][3] Retail Momentum Index Details - The Retail Momentum Index will utilize adjusted monthly returns from the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services series as its benchmark [3] - Early insights indicate that retail activity remained soft during the 2025 holiday season, but signs of stabilization are evident, with improved credit health for U.S. retail businesses following three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [4][5] Performance Indicators - Year-over-year momentum was negative in Q4 2025, but the average decline improved to 10.3%, a significant reduction from 21.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a slowdown in contraction [5] - Returns volumes fell significantly, with an average decline of 38.4% from 2023 to 2024 and 54.5% from 2024 to 2025, suggesting improved demand quality and more disciplined spending [5] Future Outlook - Retail activity is expected to remain broadly stable through at least the first half of 2026, unless major regulatory or policy changes occur [6] - The launch of the Retail Momentum Index marks the beginning of a broader collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to develop additional market insights [6]

So data centers now are consuming around 45 gigawatts of power and you can switch between capacity and throughput. I'm going to stick with capacity. Okay.So 45 gigawatts of power and then there's lots and lots of third party estimates for where they're going to be in 2030. And they center around this, you know, 90-95 gigawatts. So you need to add 50 for 2035.There's a lot fewer estimates. You come around 160. So you look at the supply and these utilities are tracking all these data centers connecting to the ...

Saudi Arabia dropped the price of its main oil grade for buyers in Asia to the lowest in years, a further sign that global supplies are running ahead of demand https://t.co/NakXx6Mg8k ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious recovery in the Shenzhen Grade-A office market, with a focus on owner-occupiers driving the investment activity [7][24][26]. Core Insights - The Shenzhen Grade-A office market is experiencing a dual mode of "net absorption recovery under continuous rental pressure," with net absorption reaching 163,123 square meters in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly level for the year [5][18]. - The average effective rent has decreased to RMB 145.6 per square meter per month, reflecting a 1.9% quarter-on-quarter decline, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous quarters [5][12]. - The overall transaction volume for the year reached RMB 8.67 billion, indicating a robust recovery from a low valuation base [26]. Supply and Demand Summary - The total supply is expected to exceed 1.04 million square meters, with significant new projects in Qianhai and Shenzhen Headquarters Base [6][23]. - The market is characterized by a temporary interruption in supply due to project delays, leading to a net absorption of 314,000 square meters for the year, which is at the lower end of the past decade's range [18]. - The demand is primarily driven by the TMT sector (47.9%) and financial services (25.9%), with relocation transactions dominating at 54.2% of total activity [19][21][22]. Rental Trends - The average net effective rent for Grade-A offices has shown a continuous decline, with landlords shifting pricing strategies towards targeted incentives to attract tenants [12][15]. - The rental decline has been more pronounced in secondary markets, with Qianhai and Bao'an experiencing the largest decreases of 3.4% and 3.2% respectively [13][17]. - The rental trends indicate a potential for volatility but overall weakness, with future stability dependent on a shift from relocation-driven demand to more sustainable expansion-driven leasing [15][22]. Investment Market Overview - The investment market remains cautious, with owner-occupiers leading the activity, as evidenced by a notable transaction where Fuyao Technology acquired the entire Runrong Building for approximately RMB 710 million [24][25]. - The overall sentiment in the investment market is defensive, with a focus on price discounts and uncertainties in rental structures and cash flows [25].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - According to the weather forecast, there is an expectation of rainfall return in Argentina in February, and the sustainability of the previous drought speculation is insufficient. The probability of severe weather speculation is relatively small as La Nina has basically ended. Recently, due to a shortage of trucks in Brazil, freight rates have increased, and the real has appreciated, making Brazil's premium relatively strong. However, this year's soybean growing season in Brazil has no obvious adverse weather, and the overall harvest is expected to be good. The short - term logistics problems in Brazil are expected to postpone the selling pressure of Brazil's premium. As harvesting progresses, the selling pressure on the premium is expected to impact the domestic market [12]. - In the future, from a unilateral perspective, the absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low and sensitive to positive events. But under the expected selling pressure from South America, there is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend yet, and it is necessary to wait for the release of the selling pressure. The short - term futures market is expected to show a weak bottom - seeking trend. The price center of US soybeans in this crop year is expected to be higher than that in the previous crop year. From the perspective of Brazil's premium, due to the improvement of Brazil's storage capacity, the appreciation of the real, and the high cost - effectiveness of Brazilian soybeans, the decline of Brazil's premium this year may be less than last year, and the bottom of the futures market is expected to be higher than that in the previous crop year. In China, the domestic soybean crushing and processing has recently recovered to a high level, and downstream procurement is basically over. Based on domestic procurement, imported soybean auctions, and targeted sales, it is estimated that the soybean inventory of domestic oil mills will still be relatively abundant year - on - year by the end of March, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to weaken [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Basis Data - On February 4th, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian was 457, a decrease of 16. In Tianjin, it was 457; in Rizhao, it was 337, a decrease of 16; in Zhangjiagang, it was 377; in Dongguan, it was 357; in Zhanjiang, it was 377; in Fangcheng, it was 377. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 112, a decrease of 5. The M3 - 5 was 258, a decrease of 17, and the RNS - 9 was - 45, a decrease of 7 [4]. Inventory Data - The content shows the inventory trends of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2026 [5][6]. 开机 and压榨情况 - The content shows the trends of the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2026 [9][10]. Spread and International Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 676, and the futures spread of the main contract was 476, a decrease of 2. The 2025 soybean CNF premium, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and imported soybean futures gross profit are also presented [17].

Tuesday afternoon, a friend from central Nebraska called with a market question, but rather than corn, soybeans, cattle, and so on, he asked about coffee. Tuesday's close saw the market sharply in the red (per pound): March (KCH26) was down 16.15 cents (4.9%) May (KCK26) was down 14.15 cents (4.5%) July (KCN26) was down 12.85 cents (4.2%) We can see commercial interests were selling alongside noncommercial traders, as indicated by nearby contracts listing ground to deferred issues Keeping in ...

For weeks, traders saw prices for everything from gold to copper and tin seemingly break free from the gravity of supply and demand fundamentals, spurred higher on a wave of hot money from speculators in China.And then, in just a few hours, the rally reversed into one of the most dramatic crashes ever seen in commodity markets. Read more: https://t.co/Jsinfmfywf📷️: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg ...