Housing Market Sales - Existing home sales decreased by 2.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.93 million units [1] - The market experienced a miss in sales, with expectations being for essentially flat sales year-over-year [1] - Sales data reflects contracts likely signed in April and May when the average on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 7% [1] Housing Supply and Demand - The number of units for sale at the end of June was 1.53 million, up 15.9% from June of the previous year [2] - The month's supply is at 4.7 months, still considered lean compared to the balanced level of 6 months [2] Home Prices and Market Dynamics - The median price of a home sold in June was $435,300, a 2% increase year-over-year, marking the 24th consecutive month of annual increases [2] - Homes are staying on the market longer, averaging 27 days compared to 22 days last June [2] - First-time buyers represent 30% of sales, lower than the historical average of 40% [3] - All-cash sales remain elevated at 29% of total sales [3] - Sales are strongest in the higher end of the market, a shift from the spring when this segment was affected by stock market volatility [3] Potential Policy Impact - A potential cut in capital gains on home sales, as suggested by the president, is estimated to affect 15% of current homeowners, primarily at the highest end of the market [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, Range Resources reported all-in capital expenditures of $154 million, generating production of 2.2 Bcf equivalent per day, with year-to-date capital tracking better than planned [10][11] - The company lowered the high end of its capital guidance to $680 million without altering planned operational activity, expecting annual production to exceed prior guidance [11][12] - Year-to-date, the company repurchased $120 million in shares and paid $43 million in dividends, returning $646 million to equity holders, approximately 7% of Range's market cap [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Range operated two horizontal rigs during Q2, drilling approximately 284,000 lateral feet across 20 laterals, averaging over 14,200 feet per well [12] - The drilling team set a new quarterly record by averaging approximately 6,250 lateral feet per day, while the completion team executed eight twelve frac stages, setting a new company record for the most stages pumped by a single crew in a quarter [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas inventory finished the quarter at approximately 3 TCF, down 6% from the prior year, supported by record high LNG feed gas, which reached over 17 Bcf per day in Q2 [14] - US NGL exports increased by 5% to 475,000 barrels per day for ethane and 1,800,000 barrels per day for propane compared to Q2 last year, with expectations for significant growth in export capacity [16][80] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Range's growth plans aim for approximately 20% growth through 2027, capitalizing on increasing demand for natural gas and NGLs, particularly in Pennsylvania [7][9] - The company emphasizes maintaining a disciplined reinvestment rate while delivering growth and shareholder returns, supported by low capital intensity and operational efficiencies [9][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong future demand for natural gas and NGLs, highlighting the company's financial strength and operational capabilities to meet this demand [17][18] - The management team noted that the natural gas market is expected to add 8.5 Bcf per day of new demand over the next eighteen months, which is supportive of near-term fundamentals [14] Other Important Information - Range achieved net zero for combined scope one and two greenhouse gas emissions this year, with an 83% reduction in methane emissions intensity over the last five years [17] - The company is preparing to launch its annual RFP for services for 2026, expecting to maintain a leading position on well cost and capital efficiency [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Supply agreements and market oversupply concerns - Management acknowledged the significant interest in supply agreements and expressed confidence in Range's ability to meet future demand while managing production levels to avoid oversupply [32][36] Question: Future capital additions and growth - Management indicated that growth will be driven by clear demand signals and that they are focused on maximizing shareholder value through share buybacks and prudent growth strategies [39][44] Question: Contribution to in-basin demand growth - Management stated that Range has the capability to significantly contribute to in-basin demand growth, potentially doubling its current production base over the next decade [52][53] Question: Pricing dynamics and competitive positioning - Management highlighted the importance of surety of supply and competitive pricing structures in securing long-term contracts with customers, emphasizing Range's experience in structuring favorable deals [56][59] Question: Lateral footage requirements for growth targets - Management noted that they have been building lateral footage inventory over the past 24 months and are well-positioned to meet future growth targets with their current operational setup [99]

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current state of demand and supply dynamics as of July 2025. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** showed a mild month-over-month (MoM) increase but remained at low levels, indicating weak overall demand [1] - **Infrastructure construction** has weakened significantly, with a noticeable deceleration in new project starts due to ongoing funding constraints and stringent payment requirements [1] - **Metal demand** has softened, with signs of inventory buildup in the supply chain, influenced by seasonal softness and a sequential correction in domestic solar demand [1] - Current Chinese demand is reported to be **7-11% lower year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **1-10% lower** for copper, flat steel, and aluminum [1] Supply Dynamics - The determination on supply adjustments remains mixed, with: - **Steel production cuts** beginning but with heterogeneous targets discussed [1] - Local government commitments on capacity elimination in cement being absent [1] - Marginal coal miners showing reluctance to cut production amid poor pricing [1] - Surprises in the oversupplied lithium market due to mining license approval inspections [1] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have weakened [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that **31% of respondents** in downstream sectors and **30%** in basic materials reported a MoM pickup in July, while **25%** and **24%** indicated a lower MoM trend, respectively [2] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the **importance of funding** in infrastructure projects, which is currently constrained, affecting new project initiations [1] - The **mixed signals** in supply adjustments suggest a complex market environment where producers are navigating between demand pressures and pricing strategies [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is experiencing a challenging environment characterized by weakening demand, mixed supply responses, and significant pressures on pricing and margins across various materials. The insights from producer feedback and high-frequency data provide a nuanced understanding of the current market dynamics, indicating potential risks and opportunities for investors in this sector.

Energy Market & Policy - The U.S power grid reliability can be improved by allowing supply and demand to function in energy markets without mandates and subsidies [1] - The GOP budget bill takes a step towards market-based energy solutions [1]

Financial Performance - The company is proud of its first-half results, having grown earnings and margins [1] Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - The airline industry is expected to see a reduction in available seats starting in mid-August, creating a tailwind [2] - Business demand has increased [2] - Reduced economic uncertainty, related to tax bill resolution and stabilization in the Middle East, is contributing to increased business activity [3] - Tariffs, while not fully resolved, have a narrowing range of potential outcomes, leading to businesses becoming more active [3] - The end of June saw a sudden increase in business activity [4] - The company serves as a real-time indicator of the economy [3]

Market Dynamics - Bitcoin spot ETFs are experiencing record inflows, marking them as the most successful ETFs in history [1] - Multiple companies are transparently purchasing Bitcoin for their balance sheets [1] - Current market conditions indicate higher demand than supply for Bitcoin, leading to a price increase [1] Price Prediction - The industry anticipates Bitcoin reaching the $150,000 to $170,000 range at some point this year [2] - Bitcoin, like other assets, is expected to experience bear markets, retracements, and corrections [2] - Price corrections to $120,000 in December or a rebound to $200,000 in March would not invalidate the overall prediction [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Vale, RIO, BHP, and FMG, with a Sell rating on KIO [7] Core Insights - The iron ore market is expected to move into surplus starting in the second half of 2025, with prices projected to average around $90 per ton in 2026 due to increased supply from Australian projects and Simandou in Guinea [5][10] - Metallurgical coal prices are anticipated to remain range-bound at approximately $180 per ton over the next 1-2 years, with limited downside risk [6][15] Iron Ore Fundamentals - Supply and demand fundamentals for iron ore were initially tight in early 2025 but softened in the second quarter as seaborne supply recovered and steel production moderated [5] - Iron ore prices have softened since mid-May, influenced by elevated inventories at ports and mills in China, alongside moderating steel production [7] - The report expects a balanced market in 2025, transitioning to a surplus in 2026/27, driven by increased supply from major producers [10][13] Metallurgical Coal Fundamentals - Demand for metallurgical coal is challenged in regions like India and China due to high domestic production and increased supply from Mongolia [6] - The medium-term outlook for metallurgical coal is more favorable, but the market needs to absorb new supply over the next 1-2 years [6] - The report suggests that while prices are expected to remain stable, the market may rebalance by 2027/28 as demand grows and supply is curtailed [15] Supply and Demand Projections - Iron ore supply is expected to grow by approximately 3% annually in 2026 and 2027, with significant contributions from Australia and Brazil [11] - The report anticipates that China's steel demand will decline by about 1% per annum over the next 3-5 years, impacting iron ore demand [12] - For metallurgical coal, the report predicts a moderate growth in seaborne demand of 1-2% in the medium term, supported by new blast furnaces being constructed in India and Southeast Asia [15]

Supply Dynamics - Ethereum (ETH) net issuance since The Merge (1,030 days ago) is approximately 373,000 ETH [1] - ETH ETFs absorbed roughly 380,000 ETH in just 9 days [1] - ETF demand has consumed approximately 3 years of new ETH supply in under two weeks [1] Market Outlook - The analysis suggests a potential supply shock for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) [1] Pricing Theory - The price of any good is determined at the margin, demand relative to supply [1]

Airline Industry Performance - Delta Air Lines Inc. experienced a 12% surge in stock price after reporting second-quarter results that exceeded both earnings and revenue expectations, indicating a strong demand outlook [1] - American Airlines Group Inc. shares increased by 12.5%, while United Airlines Holdings Inc. saw a 13.5% rise, contributing to a broad rally across the airline sector [2] - The U.S. Global Jets ETF, which tracks airline stocks, rose by 7.2%, marking its best performance since the 90-day tariff pause in April [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market showed resilience with initial jobless claims dropping to 237,000, surpassing forecasts, although continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest since 2021 [6] Commodity Market Reactions - Copper futures increased by 2.2% to approximately $5.60 per pound, with silver and palladium also seeing gains of 1.6% and 3.6% respectively, driven by expectations of tightening supply [5] - Crude oil prices fell over 2% amid reports that OPEC+ is considering halting planned production increases starting in October, raising concerns about potential oversupply [5] Stock Market Overview - Major indices showed mixed performance, with the Russell 2000 up 0.7%, Dow Jones up 0.6%, and S&P 500 up 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 slipped by 0.3% [7] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF inched up 0.2%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6% [9] Company-Specific Movements - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. rose over 4% after NorthCoast Research raised its price target, reiterating a 'Buy' rating [10] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. climbed 3.3% as copper prices continued to rise amid supply concerns [10] - Nu Holdings Ltd. dropped 5.1% following the announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, leading to a selloff in Brazil-linked assets [10]

OPEC+’s latest super-sized supply hike and recent interactions with customers suggest persistent demand growth, Kuwait’s state energy company says https://t.co/GA1fl2eObW ...