We're the biggest seller of used aircraft in the world and we have never seen a situation like this where airlines are buying over 50% of the aircraft we sell. Normally it's part out guys, it's other investors in aircraft. They're doing that because they know that the existing technology aircraft either will be late from the OEMs or when they come they will not stay in the air as long as expected.So to fill and uh match their demand with supply, they have to have the older aircraft and that's evidenced by t ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett may retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of this year, but the investment decisions of the conglomerate continue to reflect his views on the economy [1] Investment Focus - Throughout 2025, Berkshire's investments have concentrated on brands that are closely tied to consumer health and prospects, with American consumers showing resilience post-pandemic [2] - Berkshire has been cautious about the AI stock trend, opting instead for investments in essential brands that align with long-term consumer goals [3] Specific Investments - Berkshire has significantly increased its stake in Lennar Corporation by 265%, now holding approximately 7 million shares valued at over $886 million, despite Lennar's share price dropping 28% in the past year [4] - The company has also increased its stake in Chevron by 3.45 million shares in the second quarter of this year [7] - Berkshire's investment in Constellation Brands has more than doubled to about 12 million shares worth $2.2 billion, reflecting a shift towards consumer-centered brands [10] Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market faces a severe shortage of over 4.7 million homes, exacerbated by rising costs and limited supply, which are hindering new home construction [6] - The Federal Reserve has begun lowering interest rates, which could lead to lower mortgage offers for consumers, although the federal funds rate does not directly set mortgage rates [5] Consumer Spending Trends - Gasoline prices have stabilized, contributing to consumer spending growth, with gas accounting for about one-third of the growth in consumer buying last month [9]

Group 1 - Oil prices have dropped to a five-month low due to changing market expectations regarding supply, particularly influenced by potential discussions between Trump and Putin about a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4] - The price of copper has increased due to supply issues from global mines and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with LME copper prices stabilizing above $10,000 per ton [3][4] - Gold prices have surged to over $4,330, rising nearly 8% in a week, driven by expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, economic uncertainty in the U.S., and increased gold purchases by central banks, resulting in a year-to-date increase of over 60% [3][4] Group 2 - The divergence in commodity prices is primarily driven by differing expectations: oil prices are betting on increased supply, gold prices on monetary easing, and copper prices on stable demand [4][5] - It is essential for investors to focus on the underlying logic of supply and demand dynamics, rather than reacting to daily price fluctuations [4][5]

Economic Data Overview - The latest NAHB housing market index shows a slight improvement, coming in at 37, above the expected 33, but still indicates a contractionary sentiment in the housing market [2][3] - The Philly Fed manufacturing index has turned negative, dropping 36 points to -12.8%, the lowest since April, with significant declines in shipments [6][7] Housing Market Insights - The housing market remains in a dismal state, with any index below 50 indicating pessimism; however, there are signs that future interest rate reductions could stimulate buyer activity [3][4] - Inventory levels are increasing, which may lead to lower prices in the housing market [4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - New orders in the manufacturing sector increased by six points, while the employment index slightly decreased to 4.6% [8] - The manufacturing landscape shows variability across different regions, with the Empire State manufacturing index performing better than the Philly Fed index [8] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices are reaching new all-time highs, driven by FOMO trading and market volatility, with significant inflows into gold ETFs [11][13] - The energy sector is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to economic growth concerns, with natural gas prices also declining [15] Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is skeptical about claims from India regarding reducing Russian oil imports, as alternative supply sources are not clearly defined [17][18] - A potential meeting between President Trump and Ukraine's president could lead to an LG deal, which may positively impact oil prices due to the correlation between LG demand and oil prices [19][20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper and Aluminium - **Key Focus**: Supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and investment opportunities in the copper sector Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Copper Price Forecasts**: The company has raised its copper price forecasts for 2026-2028 by approximately 15%, targeting $6.0/lb (~$13,250/t) in 2027 due to expected fundamental tightness in the market [1][50] 2. **Mine Supply Disruptions**: Significant disruptions at major mines in 2025 have led to downgrades in mine supply projections for 2026/27, constraining growth from new projects [2][17] 3. **Refined Copper Supply**: Despite robust smelter output keeping the refined copper market in surplus, the company anticipates a tightening in refined supply due to mine production cuts, forecasting less than 1% growth in 2026 [3][21] 4. **Demand Growth**: The company forecasts a conservative growth of ~3% in refined copper demand for 2026/27, with potential upside from economic recovery in developed markets [4][26] 5. **Market Deficit**: A projected deficit in the refined copper market in 2026 is expected to result in inventory drawdowns, supporting sustainable price increases [5][30] 6. **Equity Recommendations**: The company has identified FCX and AAL-TECK as top picks in copper equities, upgrading KGHM and Aurubis from Sell to Neutral based on operational leverage and supportive guidance [6][50] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Supply Challenges**: The copper industry has faced ongoing challenges in finding and developing new mines, with a notable decline in new project approvals and capital expenditures [9][50] 2. **Global Mine Supply Growth**: The forecast for global mine supply growth in 2026 has been reduced to ~1%, with expectations of modest growth of ~3% in 2027 after two years of less than 1% growth [2][18] 3. **Refined Production Trends**: Over the past 2-3 years, refined copper supply growth has outpaced mine supply growth, but this trend is expected to reverse due to production cuts [3][21] 4. **Tariff Impact on Demand**: Despite macroeconomic uncertainties related to tariffs, copper demand in China has remained resilient, particularly from the grid and energy storage sectors [22][25] 5. **Investment Positioning**: Following the Grasberg disruption, net speculative length on the LME has increased by ~50%, indicating bullish positioning in the market [40][44] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the copper industry, along with strategic investment recommendations.

One of NYC's most desirable neighborhoods is getting just 51 new condos over the next three years. There will be plenty of competition for them https://t.co/1umbcnXFOb ...

Joining me now in the state of housing, Daryl Farweather, Redfin, chief economist. And here's a special treat. She's in studio with us.Usually, she is remote, so it's good to see you in person. >> It's great to see you, too. >> Although we're not talking about great numbers, to be fair.That cancellation rate is really interesting. So, that's basically when somebody signs the a letter of intent, they're going to buy the house, and then they say never mind. So, what's the rate right now, and what's contributi ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell declines to comment on Bitcoin or Gold, saying:“Inflation remains driven by fundamental supply and demand forces.” https://t.co/WKNwdMiRV7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy, considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term [1] - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, and increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but with potential policy - supported price increases from Indonesia [3][4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term trade friction uncertainties and potential price - support policies from Indonesia [9] - For lead, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, with a potential weakening trend in the future [12] - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] - For lithium carbonate, the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price data shows changes in various indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 55 increase in spot premium and a 2926 increase in SHFE warehouse receipts [1] - Macro - level: Trump's tariff announcement led to a 4.5% drop in LME copper on Friday. The impact may be less than the Qingming Festival disturbance. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1] - Fundamental: Smelting production cuts exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase next week, leading to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the stability of copper cable production [1] Aluminum - Price data shows changes in aluminum prices, alumina prices, and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 190 decrease in the Shanghai aluminum ingot price [1] - Fundamental: The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation due to the holiday effect. The global economic recovery and Fed's rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, causing a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1] Zinc - Price data shows changes in zinc prices, inventory, and other indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 100 decrease in the Shanghai zinc ingot price [2] - Supply: Domestic TC is decreasing, and imported TC is increasing. Domestic mines will be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in Q2. The smelting end is slightly recovering in October [2] - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. Some overseas smelters face production difficulties due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. Due to increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - Price data shows changes in nickel - related prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 1300 decrease in the SHFE nickel spot price [3] - Fundamental: Pure nickel production remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is stable domestically but increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] - News: The protests in Indonesia have subsided, but there are still disturbances in the mining end, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices [4] Stainless Steel - Price data shows a decrease in stainless - steel prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 50 decrease in the 304 cold - rolled coil price [9] - Fundamental: Steel mills' production in October is slightly increasing. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable, and inventory has increased during the holiday [9] - Policy: There is potential price - support from Indonesian policies, and trade friction uncertainties have increased [9] Lead - Price data shows changes in lead - related prices and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 9293 decrease in the SHFE inventory [12] - Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and the production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The primary lead production may decrease partially, and the recycled lead production will increase, with a total increase of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [12] - Demand: The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day holiday, the demand may weaken [12] - Price forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 and 17,400 next week and may weaken in the future [12] Tin - Price data shows changes in tin - related indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 4990 decrease in the tin position [15] - Supply: The processing fee of tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October, and Indonesian exports have resumed [15] - Demand: The solder market has slightly recovered during the peak season. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level [15] - Strategy: Follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] Industrial Silicon - Price data shows changes in industrial - silicon - related basis and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 120 decrease in the 421 Yunnan basis [16] - Supply: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. There is a strong expectation of production cuts in November [16] - Outlook: The supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] Lithium Carbonate - Price data shows changes in lithium - carbonate prices, basis, and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 450 decrease in the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price [16] - Supply: Overseas mines are reluctant to lower prices, and traders are reluctant to sell. Salt plants are less willing to accept high - priced lithium ore [16] - Demand: The pre - holiday inventory - building has almost ended. The spot basis is weak, and most transactions are at a discount [16] - Outlook: The price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16]

AI & Technology - The AI sector faces a supply-demand imbalance, with demand significantly exceeding available supply [1][2] - AI models are continuously improving, indicating that the sector is not currently experiencing a bubble [2] - AI infrastructure spending is estimated at $7 trillion over a compressed 7-year period [3] - The democratization of intelligence through AI is expected to empower entrepreneurs and potentially disrupt public companies [3] - Humanoid robots are gaining traction, with potential for significant advancements and market impact, possibly comparable to the introduction of the iPhone [13][14][15] Market & Economic Conditions - The market may experience a correction before the end of the year, suggesting a need for caution among traders [4] - The bottom end of the economy is still suffering, with concerns around auto loans and student loan delinquencies [4] - There are concerns about the potential for a K-shaped economic recovery, where some sectors and individuals benefit while others lag behind [3][4] - The debasement trade, involving investments in Bitcoin and gold, is gaining acceptance as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [10][12] Financial Risks & Opportunities - Private credit markets are showing signs of stress, with potential risks highlighted by recent bankruptcies and investigations [8] - Factor performance is showing signs of stress, with shorted stocks outperforming quality stocks, potentially leading to increased market volatility [9] - A potential grand bargain between China and the US could positively impact the market, while failure to reach an agreement could be viewed negatively [15]