Photo by BeInCrypto Bitcoin slid to the $85,000 level on December 15, extending its recent decline as global macro risks, leverage unwinding, and thin liquidity collided. The drop erased more than $100 billion from the total crypto market cap in just days, raising questions about whether the sell-off has finished. While no single catalyst caused the move, five overlapping forces pushed Bitcoin lower and could keep pressure on prices in the near term. Bank of Japan Rate Hike Fears Triggered Global De-Ris ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming policy meeting, which could significantly impact global risk assets, particularly Bitcoin [1][2]. Group 1: BOJ Rate Hike Expectations - Prediction markets indicate a 98% probability of a BOJ rate hike, with only a 2% chance of maintaining current rates [2]. - If the rate hike occurs, Japan's policy rate will increase to 75 basis points, a level not seen in nearly two decades [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bitcoin - Analysts express concern that the anticipated rate hike is negative for Bitcoin, which is currently trading below the $90,000 psychological level [3]. - Historical data shows that Bitcoin has dropped significantly following previous BOJ rate hikes, with declines of 20-25% observed after such events [8]. Group 3: Yen Carry Trade Dynamics - The yen carry trade, where institutions borrow yen at low rates to invest in global assets, is under threat due to rising Japanese bond yields [4]. - If yields continue to rise, leveraged positions funded in yen may be unwound, leading to forced selling of risk assets, including Bitcoin [5]. Group 4: Current Market Sentiment - Bitcoin is currently trading at $88,956, down 1.16% in the last 24 hours, with traders focusing on potential volatility due to the BOJ's historical impact on the cryptocurrency [6][7]. - Analysts warn that if the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could drop below $70,000 following the expected rate hike [8].

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since January, increasing the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% from 0.50%, according to Nikkei. The decision, which is expected on Dec. 19, would take Japanese interest rates to their highest level in roughly 30 years. The broader impact on global markets remains uncertain; however, developments in Japan have historically been bearish for bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market. A stronger yen has typically co ...

Core Insights - Investors should pay attention to Japanese government bond yields as a potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike could significantly impact global markets, particularly tech stocks like Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Currently, markets are focused on the Federal Reserve cutting rates, while Japan, the third-largest holder of U.S. Treasurys, is moving in a different direction [2]. - The unwinding of the yen carry trade, which has been a crucial factor in the stock market rally over the past decade, could lead to a "giant global margin call" if it occurs too rapidly [2][4]. Group 2: Yen Carry Trade Mechanics - For nearly a decade, Japan maintained near-zero interest rates while the U.S. raised rates, allowing hedge funds and institutions to profit from borrowing in yen and investing in higher-yielding assets [3][6]. - If the BOJ raises rates, even modestly, it could lead to significant changes in the market dynamics, as small movements in the yen could trigger massive leverage unwinds [4][5]. Group 3: Implications of Rate Hikes - Markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance of a BOJ rate hike this month, leading to surging Japanese bond yields and a strengthening yen [5]. - Higher yields could result in lower bond prices, which would exert pressure on tech valuations, impacting companies like Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft [7].

Market Overview - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced significant declines after two days of gains, driven by profit-taking among investors and continued selling by foreign investors [1][4] - The BSE Sensex fell by 609.68 points (0.71%) to close at 85,102.69, while the NSE Nifty dropped by 225.90 points (0.86%) to settle at 25,960.55 [4] Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that investors adopted a defensive stance ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, which negatively impacted market sentiment [3][6] - Despite strong domestic growth figures and a recent rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), short-term sentiment is clouded by global monetary policy concerns, persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and currency depreciation [8] Sector Performance - Among the Sensex constituents, several companies such as Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tata Steel, and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards, while Tech Mahindra and HDFC Bank were the only gainers [5] - The market saw a broad-based decline, with the Nifty slipping below the 26,000 mark as caution prevailed among investors [6] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹438.90 crore, while domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth ₹4,189.17 crore [9] Global Market Context - Other Asian markets showed mixed performance, with South Korea's KOSPI rising by 1.34% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index falling by 1.23% [9] - The surge in Japanese bond yields to multi-year highs raised concerns about potential unwinding of the yen carry trade, contributing to market volatility [8] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.61% to $63.37 per barrel, reflecting broader market trends [10]

Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caiten here in Chicago alongside Sam Bodis at the New York Stock Exchange. We'll close out our show with our final thoughts like we usually do.Today's session, AI was a big theme. Apple changing out its head of AI, Sam Alman, reportedly sounding an alarm for Code Red. Mestro releasing some new models.Let's break down some of those stories. at Apple. The current head of AI is retiring and being replaced by an AI veteran with a history at both Microsoft and Google w ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent speech suggests a potential interest rate hike, impacting global bond markets and signaling a shift from decades of ultraloose monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering raising its policy interest rate at the upcoming meeting on December 19, following a previous increase to 0.5% in January [2]. - Ueda's comments have led to a significant rise in Japanese bond yields, with the 2-year yield surpassing 1% and the 10-year yield reaching nearly 1.88%, marking the highest levels in 17 years [4]. Group 2: Global Market Impact - The remarks triggered a global bond-market selloff, affecting debt trading in countries such as Australia, New Zealand, France, Italy, Greece, and the U.S. [3]. - U.S. Treasury yields also spiked, with the 10-year and 30-year yields increasing by more than 7 basis points, reaching almost 4.1% and 4.74%, respectively [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - Japan's economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, prompting discussions about the end of an era of ultraloose monetary policy that lasted for decades [3][7]. - The potential rise in Japanese yields and a stronger yen could lead to capital outflows from U.S. markets, tightening global financial conditions [4][5].

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Spotify.Getty ImagesSurvey Monday The Bank of Japan is expected to resume interest rate hikes soon and JGB yields are rising. Will we see another major yen carry trade unwind, like in mid-2024?Take the survey here and share your thoughts in the WSB comments section. Welcome back from the weekend! Check out the latest trending news: Fed chair: President Trump has decided on his pick to lead t ...

Seeing more ppl talk about the Yen carry trade, these are the 3 main charts I'm monitoring.Watch for signs of Yen strength, USDJPY going down.Softbank is effectively an IRL institutional Yen carry trade, they borrow huge $$ in Yen at low rates and invest in assets. Lots of US tech and other risk assets. So when Yen goes up or this trade unwinds Softbank generally is a leading indicator.Nikkei, view of overall market. Keep in mind Softbank is a major part of the index, so seeing is it's moving synchronically ...

Bitcoin, crypto market wavers as Japan's bond yield hits ATH ahead of Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes release and Nonfarm payroll jobs data — Source: CoinGape Crypto market braces for Yen carry trades unwind as Japan's long-term bond yield hits new high. Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and other altcoins pare gains ahead of Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes, NFP jobs data. Bull-Bear Structure Index signals continued dominance of bearish factors. Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and other altcoins pare gains as the crypto ...