But are you short the dollar. I mean, you mentioned you're into yields. I would say that the easiest long term trades are, you know, the yield curve is going to steep and probably the historic wise, you know, we're going to cut short term rates dramatically in the next year.And, you know, the dollar will probably be lower because of that. A lot lower because of that. How much lower off.10% from our high right now. Yes, I would say that that that's I think that's a year from today. That's probably a realisti ...

LISA: -- THE OUTLOOK FOR CREDIT INVESTING MORE BROADLY. YOU TALKED ABOUT HOW THE U.S. IS GOING TO GO BANKRUPT AND IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE FISCAL PATH. DO WE SEE THAT PRICED IN OR IS THERE STILL A RECKONING TO COME.JEFFREY: IT'S CERTAINLY BEHAVING DIFFERENTLY THAN IT WAS FOR THE LAST FOUR DECADES. WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS IN THE LAST 15 YEARS THERE'S BEEN A NUMBER OF CORRECTIONS ON THE S&P 500 AND EVERY ONE OF THEM, THE S&P WAS DOWN MORE THAN 10%, THE DOLLAR INDEX, THE TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX GOES UP. THIS TIME ...

Give us a tip. What's the what's the one long you would hit for the next contest. Hmm.I would say probably probably the yield curve. It just depends on where. I think it'll be higher at that point in time.Man would be very esoteric. So many think. Well, it would definitely.I would definitely be betting on substantially lower front end rates will have a we'll have a new Fed chair within six months at that point in time. And I think Trump's going to pick someone who's going to be uber dovish. Well, let's talk ...

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment has a high dividend yield of approximately 16%, but its stock price has been declining, raising questions about the sustainability of its payout and whether it is a good investment opportunity [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that primarily invests in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which carry virtually no credit risk [1]. - The company has faced significant challenges due to rising mortgage interest rates and widening spreads between MBS yields and Treasury yields [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - AGNC's tangible book value (TBV) has decreased by 45% from $15.75 at the end of 2021 to $8.70 per share by the end of 2023, and further declined to $8.25 at the end of Q1 2025 [4]. - The company has maintained its dividend payout despite a challenging environment, although this has impacted its TBV [10]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have contributed to higher mortgage rates, which have negatively affected AGNC's performance [2]. - The yield curve has been inverted, which is unfavorable for AGNC's income generation model, but it has recently flipped to a positive slope, potentially benefiting the company [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated potential rate cuts, which could lower AGNC's short-term funding costs and improve MBS valuations, positively impacting TBV [5][6]. - If MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads narrow as banks re-enter the MBS market, AGNC could see a recovery in both its book value and share price, leading to potential total returns of 20% to 25% annually in the coming years [13][14]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - AGNC is characterized as a high-risk, high-reward income investment, with the current market conditions possibly turning in its favor after enduring the impact of higher interest rates [15]. - For income-focused investors, AGNC presents a high yield with strong potential upside, although it requires active management and understanding of associated risks [16].

2025 年 6 月 3 日 总量研究 为什么我们不担心资金面？ ——2025 年 6 月 3 日利率债观察 要点 1、为什么我们不担心资金面？ 2025 年 5 月末 10Y 国债收益率为 1.67%，较 4 月末上行了约 5bp。收益率曲线 长端的上行在很大程度上来源于投资者对资金面的担忧：一些投资者担心央行会 再次主动收紧资金面，还有一些投资者担心 6 月份较大的 CD 到期量会影响银行 体系流动性的充裕程度，也有一些投资者担心存款降息将导致银行负债流失。 我们认为本阶段对资金面无需过度担心。第一，我们认为本阶段货币当局主动收 紧资金面的概率较低。在《春节后资金和债券市场如何演变？——2025 年 1 月 27 日利率债观察》中我们曾阐释"收益率曲线长端过低是……资金利率上行的 重要触发因素"。今年 1 月 10Y 国债与 7D OMO 间利差的均值为 14bp，5 月末 上述利差已修复至 27bp，显然货币当局通过再度抬高资金市场利率引导长债收 益率上行的迫切性已降低。而且，相较于今年第一季度，当前外部环境变化的不 确定性明显加大，此时货币当局对于资金面更为呵护。例如，一季度 DR007 的 均值和波 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint on mREITs for short-term investors is a Hold due to sensitivity to yield curve dynamics and margin compression amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment [1] - Current challenges include an inverted or flattening yield curve, limited visibility from the Federal Reserve, and risks associated with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) valuations [1] - The analyst emphasizes a long-term perspective on value creation, focusing on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis to provide actionable investment ideas [1]

固收 降准后的资金紧怎么看？20250519 摘要 • 近期债市整体偏震荡，受存款调降预期影响，收益率有所下行。市场对存 款利率调降幅度有期待，但预计不会超过贷款基点调降幅度。短期内，债 市可能维持震荡格局。 • 资金面仍然乐观，宽松存在超预期可能。即使短期波动或短端下行空间不 足，短端收益率仍有下降空间，取决于资金松动和价格指数进一步下行。 对收益率曲线平坦化后的走势更有确定性。 • 预计央行流动性投放将保持稳定宽松态势，双降之后央行流动性投放会达 到一个小规模高峰，包括结构性货币政策超额投放以及未来可能的 PSL 投 放，将使价格方向和预期偏向宽松。 • 降准实际落地后出现收紧现象，是由于银行按照 10 天或旬度进行平均法 考核，在新的降准维持期开启时需要补充超额准备金，导致暂时性的收紧。 需从时间点和幅度角度理解。 • 降准公告发布后，机构可以提前使用部分超额准备金，资金宽松效应提前 显现。不必担心降准落地后资金反而收紧，因为前期已经透支了部分宽松 效应。历史上降准实施落地后的两周内，资金价格呈现稳定或边际下行趋 势。 Q&A 最近债市的整体行情如何，主要受到哪些因素影响？ 最近债市整体处于波动状态。上 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GAAP loss per share of $0.29 and core earnings per share of $0.23, with a significant non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $17.6 million or $0.51 per share impacting GAAP results [6][32] - GAAP and core net interest margins (NIM) expanded to 2.51% and 2.49% respectively, marking increases of 12 and 24 basis points quarter over quarter [9][32] - Average deposits increased by 7% year over year and about 1% quarter over quarter, with the loan to deposit ratio improving to 87% from 94% a year ago [11][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on improving profitability through net interest margin expansion, particularly from real estate loans that are contractually set to reprice higher [8][10] - Approximately $511 million of loans are due to reprice 171 basis points higher in 2025, with expectations of generating $9 million in interest income for 2025 and $13 million for 2026 from these repricings [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Asian markets account for about one-third of the company's branches, with $1.3 billion in deposits and $738 million in loans, indicating a 3% market share in a $40 billion market, suggesting significant growth potential [25][26] - The spread between the five-year FHLB advance and the three-month SOFR rate turned negative during the quarter, which may impact future net interest margins [26][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance profitability, maintain credit discipline, and preserve strong liquidity and capital, with a focus on contractual loan repricing to drive net interest margin expansion [6][32] - The company plans to expand its branch network in Asian markets, leveraging its multilingual staff and community engagement to capture growth opportunities [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the economic outlook has become uncertain, the company remains focused on controllable factors and investing in business initiatives to drive future profitability [29][32] - The company expects stable assets for the year, with loan growth being market-dependent and a continued emphasis on improving the mix of interest-earning assets and liabilities [30][32] Other Important Information - The allowance for credit losses is stable at 59 basis points of loans, with criticized loans to total loans at a low 133 basis points, reflecting a conservative underwriting approach [19][32] - Non-interest income is expected to benefit from the closing of back-to-back swap loans and a BOLI exchange, while non-interest expenses are projected to increase by 5% to 8% in 2025 [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insight on the adjustments that offset seasonal expenses? - Management indicated that adjustments were made based on year-end accruals that needed to be trued up as the new year began [38] Question: What is the status of the multifamily uptick in non-performing loans (NPLs)? - Management explained that the multifamily loan issue involves a relationship with three loans at an LTV of about 43%, and they are working to resolve it [40][44] Question: How is the Asian community managing through the tariff situation? - Management stated that there is no direct exposure to trade financing and that the community is expected to remain stable despite potential price increases [60][61] Question: What is the outlook for the SBA pipeline and gain on sale income? - Management noted that they do not provide guidance on gain on sale income but mentioned activity in real estate-based lending with premiums on sale around 7% [67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GAAP loss per share of $0.29 and core earnings per share of $0.23, with a significant non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $17.6 million or $0.51 per share impacting GAAP results [6][5] - GAAP and core net interest margins (NIM) expanded to 2.51% and 2.49% respectively, marking increases of 12 basis points and 24 basis points quarter over quarter [9][33] - Average deposits increased by 7% year over year and about 1% quarter over quarter, with the loan to deposit ratio improving to 87% from 94% a year ago [11][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on improving profitability through net interest margin expansion, particularly from real estate loans that are contractually set to reprice higher [8][10] - Approximately $511 million of loans are due to reprice 171 basis points higher in 2025, with expectations of generating an annualized $9 million of interest income in 2025 and $13 million in 2026 from these repricings [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Asian markets account for about one-third of the company's branches, with $1.3 billion in deposits and $738 million in loans, indicating a 3% market share in a $40 billion market, suggesting significant growth potential [26][33] - The spread between the five-year FHLB advance and the three-month SOFR rate turned negative during the quarter, which may impact future net interest margins [27][33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance profitability, maintain credit discipline, and preserve strong liquidity and capital, with a focus on contractual loan repricing to drive net interest margin expansion [6][33] - The company plans to expand its branch network in Asian markets, indicating a strategic focus on growth in these areas [26][33] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the economic outlook has become uncertain, they remain focused on controllable factors and investing in business initiatives to drive future profitability [30][33] - The company expects stable assets for the year, with loan growth being market-dependent, and emphasizes the importance of improving the mix of interest-earning assets and liabilities [31][33] Other Important Information - The allowance for credit losses is stable at 59 basis points of loans, with a low level of criticized loans at 133 basis points, reflecting the company's conservative underwriting standards [20][33] - Non-interest income is expected to benefit from the closing of back-to-back swap loans and a BOLI exchange, while non-interest expenses are projected to increase by 5% to 8% in 2025 [32][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide color around the adjustments that offset the seasonal uptick in expenses? - Management indicated that adjustments were made based on year-end accruals that needed to be trued up as the new year began [38] Question: What were the reasons for the uptick in multifamily non-performing loans (NPLs)? - Management explained that the uptick was related to a specific borrower with three loans and a tenant moving out of an office building, with efforts underway to resolve these issues [40][41] Question: How is the Asian community managing through the tariff situation? - Management stated that there is no direct exposure to trade financing and that the community is tight-knit, expecting minimal impact on their real estate-focused portfolio [58][59] Question: What is the outlook for the SBA pipeline and gain on sale income potential? - Management noted that while they do not provide guidance on gain on sale income, they have seen activity in real estate-based lending with premiums on sale around 7% [66] Question: Should we expect some level of reserve build going forward? - Management indicated that given the uncertainty in the environment, they expect to see some reserve build once there is finalization over the tariffs [67]

债券"策略荒"- 每周债市超话 20250428 摘要 • 当前债市呈现策略荒，收益率曲线总体走平，长端波动小，交易空间狭窄， 机构操作谨慎，多以票据策略为主，拉长久期意愿不强。短端受资金价格 限制，下行空间有限；长端交易难度大，波段操作风险高。 • 政治局会议后，市场对货币宽松预期有所压缩，降准降息时间点未明确， 广义财政政策发力未超预期。MLF 与买断式回购进入平衡状态，增量难度 增加，降准的宽松信号意义不可替代，市场对二季度降准仍抱有期待。 • 短期内，不需要过分担心流动性问题，短端国债估值水平合理，与资金价 格挂钩仍有调整空间。即使没有降准落地，资金也不会再次明显收紧，银 行负债已经修复，降准落地将使流动性更加平稳。 • 当前策略荒是短期应对，中长期宏观趋势对债市有利，但需时间验证。若 短端保持稳定且收益率曲线偏平，则是较好情景；若仅降准而无明确宽松 政策，长端可能出现阶段性止盈压力，需保持谨慎。 • 近期若无降息落地，交易节奏不利，易出现熊陡走势或长端止盈。关注短 端积累票息，为后续博弈做准备，淡化长端交易。降准在短端更安全平稳， 长端行情需短端率先下行，或资金超预期宽松。 Q&A 近期债市行情的主 ...