Market Overview - The S&P 500 is currently up, while other indices are down, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] - A potential area of resistance was identified at 655, which was tested but subsequently faded [2] - The current trading level around 6520 is crucial for support, with 6510 as the next level if a failure occurs [3] Sector Performance - Utilities outperformed the tech sector, which is notable given the strong performance of Oracle and semiconductors earlier in the day [5][6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) saw a significant increase of around 6%, contributing to the utilities sector's strength [5] - Despite Oracle's earlier gains of over 40%, the tech sector did not maintain its lead over utilities, raising questions about market dynamics [6][8] Volatility and Economic Indicators - Volatility is increasing ahead of the upcoming CPI report, suggesting a defensive positioning among investors [8][12] - The market is bracing for the CPI report, with expectations that it will reflect the aggressive PPI data from the previous month [12][13] - The 10-year Treasury yield is being closely monitored, with a key support area identified at 3.97% [15] Technical Analysis - The market has been in a descending channel, indicating bearish trends, but a break above 6530 could lead to a potential squeeze [5] - Current volume levels are average, with no strong indications of a market breakdown or broad enthusiasm [12] - Weekly charts for utilities and industrials are showing potential bearish setups, which could impact future performance [10]

Market Outlook - Current market sentiment reflects a "Goldilocks scenario" where investors expect no compression in corporate margins, contained inflation, and a softening labor market allowing for rate cuts without recession [1] - The belief that earnings growth will remain strong as the Fed cuts rates is viewed as overly optimistic, with historical evidence suggesting significant risks associated with such a scenario [1][2] Economic Indicators - Historical patterns indicate that the Fed typically cuts rates during profit slowdowns, often leading to initial market declines before recovery [2] - Analysts tend to overestimate earnings during slowdowns, which is expected to be the case again, indicating stress in the market rather than a bull market [3] Investment Strategy - In light of the low probability of a favorable economic outcome, the recommendation is to focus on high-quality, dividend-paying equities, enhance regional diversification, and avoid corporate credit exposure [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has raised its target from 6,550 to 7,000, returning to its original forecast for the year, which is now the second highest target on the market [1]. Market Impact and Economic Factors - The market experienced a significant shock due to tariffs, prompting a reevaluation of various economic factors, including the economy and Federal Reserve policies [2]. - Despite initial negative expectations regarding tariffs, their impact on growth and inflation has been minimal, with earnings growth actually increasing in the second quarter [3]. - Companies have indicated that while the tariffs are a shock, they are manageable, leading to a return to the 7,000 target [4]. Market Positioning and Investor Sentiment - The market is currently at new highs, suggesting that many investors have entered the market, leading to an overweight position [5]. - Systematic strategies have contributed to the market being overweight, while discretionary investors have maintained a neutral position for the past two months, indicating potential upside [6]. Earnings and Buybacks - The combination of market positioning, potential inflows, and buybacks supports the argument for an 8% increase, aligning with the 7,000 target [6]. - If earnings remain stable, buybacks are expected to continue, further supporting market growth [6]. Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The impact of potential rate cuts is under discussion, with considerations on whether cuts of 50 or 75 basis points by year-end will significantly affect the market [7]. - Current pricing in the market reflects expectations around rates, with medium to long-term rates being more influential than short-term rates [8]. - Near-term rate changes are viewed as less critical unless they deliver a significant surprise [9].

Core Insights - Rocket Companies is positioned to benefit from declining mortgage rates, with strong refinancing market share and strategic acquisitions driving growth in volume and profitability [1] - Bank of America Securities upgraded Rocket Companies to Buy, raising the price target to $24, indicating a 17% upside potential [2] Group 1: Market Position and Growth Potential - Rocket holds approximately 10% of the refinancing market, which is expected to grow as mortgage rates decrease [3] - The acquisition of Mr. Cooper is projected to generate $500 million in synergies, including $400 million in cost savings and $100 million in revenue increases [4] - The recently completed acquisition of Redfin is anticipated to contribute an additional $200 million in synergies [4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Forecasts - Rocket reported Q2 earnings of $0.04 per share on revenues of $1.34 billion, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company forecasts Q3 revenue between $1.60 billion and $1.75 billion, surpassing the market estimate of $1.50 billion [6] - Bank of America raised its 2026 EPS forecast for Rocket by 11% to $1.02, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [3]

CPI tomorrow - rate cuts next week?Good volatility in both directions. Took big profits off leveraged positions for nowThink with patience a good opportunity to get long again will come ...

Next move Wall Street's major averages closed at more record highs on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 (SP500) finishing the session above the 6,500 level. Investors are now clear-minded about a coming cycle of rate cuts after real weakness was confirmed in the labor market amid a record 911K nonfarm payroll revision to yearly jobs growth. Following the release, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon also came out with a stance pointing to "weakening economy," charging up the stimulus bulls who have been eager to see easing ...

Nailed it. https://t.co/egf8wkTxz6s4mmy (@S4mmyEth):Rate cuts in September?Send everything higher with haste. ...

Market Sentiment and Economic Data - The market has been surprisingly resilient, with a 12% increase during the summer, marking the third strongest summer in a long time [1] - Composite economic data suggests weakening employment conditions, as indicated by the Beige Book, ISM, ADP, and JOLTS reports [2] - Market's reaction is heavily influenced by revisions to economic data [4] - Revisions to employment numbers are common, with initial surveys typically having a lower response rate (around 60%) compared to later revisions (90-95%) [6] Employment Data Analysis - Consensus for the upcoming jobs number is 75,000, and unless the number is significantly outside the range of 50,000 to 150,000, it may not be a major market-moving event [9] - A jobs number above 150,000 could introduce uncertainty about potential Fed rate cuts in October and December [12] - Negative revisions to May and June numbers could potentially accelerate the timeline for Fed rate cuts [5] Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, with the expectation that the die has been cast for the upcoming meeting [12][14] - Inflation numbers next week will be crucial, as they are expected to show price increases flowing through to the data, potentially complicating the Fed's job [10] - The market is learning not to overreact to policy initiatives, as several anticipated negative impacts (tariffs, deportations, OBB passage) have not materialized [15][16]

Welcome back. Economic activity seeing quote little to no growth in recent weeks. That according to the Fed's latest Facebook survey.Investors now looking ahead to this Friday's jobs report for more clarity on where this economy is going. Joining me now to Slack. He is Apollo partner and chief economist.And I mispronounced your last name and you I hope will accept my sincere apologies for that. >> Of course. All good.I've heard many variants of my name over the last many many years. So >> the the correct on ...

🇺🇸 Rate cuts probability just hit 97%Trillions will flow into the marketThis is not the time to be bearish.Just survive September and load upon altcoins because market is aboutto go parabolic in Q4 of 2025. ...