We're joined by Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. Really great to have you with us on this first day after the government shut down. Mike, now that it's over, now what.Good morning. Good morning, Nathan. Yeah.Well, I think most people probably won't feel the effects. I'm sure the government employees are happy to get back to work. And look, I think from our standpoint, from a market standpoint, I mean, this is the longer that this kind of, you know, lagged into the holidays, it de ...

Core Insights - Tredegar Corporation's shares have increased by 33.2% since the earnings report for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which grew by 2% during the same period [1] - The company reported an adjusted net income of 26 cents per share, a substantial increase from 1 cent per share in the prior-year period [1] Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues rose by 33.5% to $194.9 million, up from $146.1 million in the same quarter last year, primarily driven by the Aluminum Extrusions segment, which saw a 40.4% increase in net sales to $162.5 million [2] - Net income from continuing operations was $7.1 million, compared to a net loss of $3.4 million in the third quarter of 2024, with non-GAAP net income from ongoing operations at $9.2 million, up from $0.2 million in the prior-year period [3] Segment Performance - In the Aluminum Extrusions segment, EBITDA from ongoing operations reached $16.8 million, a 172.1% increase from $6.2 million in the third quarter of 2024, driven by a 19.5% growth in sales volume to 41.3 million pounds [4] - The PE Films segment's EBITDA increased by 22.9% to $7.2 million, up from $5.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, with net sales rising 4% year over year to $25.9 million [6] Operational Highlights - The Aluminum Extrusions segment benefited from an inventory flow-through timing effect due to aluminum price trends, contributing $4.3 million to earnings, reversing a $1 million charge from the previous year [5] - The PE Films segment experienced a volume decline of 11% in overwrap films, negatively impacting performance, although surface protection films saw a 10.9% year-over-year increase [7] Management Commentary - CEO John Steitz described the quarter as "good" across both business units, noting improvements in manufacturing efficiencies at Bonnell despite net new orders remaining at "depressed levels" due to increased tariffs [8] - Encouraging order activity was observed in October, with weekly averages reaching 3 million pounds, indicating potential stabilization [9] Factors Influencing Performance - The Aluminum Extrusions segment's earnings increase was supported by a $12.7 million boost in contribution margin, higher sales volumes, and improved pricing, despite cost pressures from labor and maintenance [10] - The PE Films segment's improvement was driven by a $1.8 million margin increase from surface protection films, aided by higher volume and productivity gains [11] Future Guidance - Management is evaluating cost-reduction initiatives expected to yield results in 2026, with projected capital expenditures of $17 million for Bonnell Aluminum and $2 million for PE Films in 2025 [12] Other Developments - Tredegar recorded a $9.8 million cash inflow related to the post-closing settlement of the sale of its Terphane business, contributing to debt reduction in 2025 [13] - The company also completed the sale of corporate-owned land during the third quarter, resulting in a $1.5 million gain [13]

Core Insights - On Holding AG's shares increased over 20% in intra-day trading after the company raised its full-year outlook due to stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings [1] - The company reported quarterly earnings per share of CHF 0.36, exceeding analyst forecasts of CHF 0.27, with revenue reaching CHF 794.4 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of CHF 763.8 million [1] Financial Performance - Net sales rose by 24.9% year over year, or 34.5% at constant currency, driven by robust demand in both Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) and Wholesale channels [2] - DTC revenue increased by 27.6% to CHF 314.7 million, or 37.5% on a constant-currency basis, while Wholesale sales grew by 23.3% to CHF 479.6 million, or 32.5% when adjusted for currency fluctuations [2] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA surged by 49.8% to CHF 179.9 million from CHF 120.1 million a year earlier, with the margin improving to 22.6% from 18.9% [3] - Gross profit margin enhanced to 62.5% from 60.1% [3] Future Outlook - For the full year, On Holding projected constant-currency sales growth of 34%, an increase from the previous guidance of at least 31%, translating to approximately CHF 2.98 billion in revenue, up from CHF 2.91 billion [3] - The company raised its adjusted EBITDA margin target to above 18%, compared to the previous range of 17%–17.5%, and now expects a gross margin around 62.5%, higher than the earlier outlook of 60.5%–61.0% [4]

Core Insights - S&P Global Inc. is a significant player in financial information, analytics, and credit ratings, with a market cap of $149.5 billion, providing essential data for informed decision-making in global capital markets [1] Performance Overview - Over the past year, S&P Global's shares have underperformed the broader market, declining by 1.9% compared to a 14.1% increase in the S&P 500 Index [2] - In 2025, the stock has continued to lag, remaining slightly negative while the S&P 500 has risen by 16.4% year-to-date [2] Sector Comparison - The stock has also underperformed compared to sector peers, with the iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF gaining approximately 17.5% over the past year and 22.8% year-to-date [3] Financial Performance - On October 30, S&P Global reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue increasing by 9% year-over-year to $3.89 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.73, exceeding market expectations [4] - The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting 7-8% revenue growth and continued margin expansion, indicating confidence in its data, analytics, and ratings franchises [4] Earnings Expectations - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts anticipate a 13.1% growth in EPS to $17.76 on a diluted basis, with a strong earnings surprise history, having beaten consensus estimates in the last four quarters [5] - Among 26 analysts covering S&P Global, the consensus rating is a "Strong Buy," supported by 19 "Strong Buy" ratings, three "Moderate Buys," and four "Hold" ratings [5] Analyst Ratings - The analyst outlook has improved compared to two months ago, with 18 analysts now suggesting a "Strong Buy" [6] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. has adjusted its price target for S&P Global to $615 from $635 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, citing the company's Q3 2025 earnings beat and raised full-year guidance [6]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Corp expresses optimism for the upcoming holiday peak shipping season despite ongoing industry challenges, projecting improved profits for the fiscal second quarter [3][4]. Financial Performance - FedEx anticipates adjusted earnings per share to exceed last year's benchmark of $4.05, surpassing analyst expectations of $4.02 per share [3]. - The update led to a 5.3% increase in FedEx shares during early trading on the New York Stock Exchange [4]. Operational Insights - FedEx has reported an increase in operating income for the first time despite declining revenues, although it faces a $1 billion headwind from the end of the de minimis tariff exemption [4]. - The company experienced a $150 million adjusted operating income impact for Q1 and expects a similar impact at the midpoint of its guidance range [5]. - U.S. outbound air freight has increased by 22%, contributing approximately $40 million to revenue [5]. Strategic Initiatives - FedEx is adapting to changing demand by shifting from trans-Pacific to intra-Asia routes and plans to spin off its FedEx Freight segment into a separate company [5]. - The company is optimistic about its future capabilities due to its existing networks, cost structure, and logistics intelligence [6]. Challenges and Mitigation - Both FedEx and UPS may face disruptions and increased expenses due to the grounding of MD-11 aircraft following a recent fatal crash [7]. - FedEx is collaborating with Boeing and the FAA to ensure safe inspections and return of aircraft to service, while managing capacity through spare aircraft and adjustments to maintenance schedules [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to shift focus towards earnings growth in 2026, particularly in the small and midcap sectors, which are projected to experience a recovery from previous earnings recessions [2][3][5]. Small and Midcap Sector - Small and midcap companies are anticipated to see earnings growth improve from low single-digit this year to low double-digit next year, driven by a recovery from two years of declining earnings [3][5]. - Companies in the small and midcap space that have raised their Q4 and 2026 guidance during the Q3 reporting period have outperformed the S&P 500 [3]. - The economic sensitivity of small and midcap stocks is expected to provide a favorable setup as macroeconomic conditions stabilize and potential Fed rate cuts occur [6]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is characterized by persistent spending dynamics, with capital expenditure improvements expected through the end of the decade [7][8]. - Ongoing volatility is anticipated as companies navigate the pace and justification of their AI-related spending [8]. - There is a focus on stock selection within the AI space, with an emphasis on semiconductors and software, while communication services have been adjusted to a market weight [10]. Broader Market Implications - Companies not directly associated with AI are beginning to implement AI processes, which could lead to higher productivity, improved margins, and reduced earnings volatility in the long term [11].

Well, joining me now, Scott Croniner, US equity strategist at City. Scott, it's always great to speak with you. Uh, and let's start right there, especially on a day where the market seems to be pulling back from session lows here to to do an about face.You like the small and midcaps. Why. >> Well, Morgan, I think there's a couple of things at work here.What we're arguing is that as we go into the end of this year, the market is increasingly paying for 26 earnings growth expectations. We certainly going to g ...

Core Viewpoint - Growth investors are attracted to stocks with above-average financial growth, but identifying such stocks can be challenging due to their inherent risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Growth Stock Identification - The Zacks Growth Style Score helps identify promising growth stocks by analyzing real growth prospects beyond traditional metrics [2] - Ameriprise Financial Services (AMP) is currently recommended due to its favorable Growth Score and top Zacks Rank [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is crucial for attracting investor attention, with double-digit growth being particularly desirable [3] - Ameriprise has a historical EPS growth rate of 18.1%, with a projected EPS growth of 11.3% this year, surpassing the industry average of 8.7% [4] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - Higher-than-average cash flow growth is essential for growth-oriented companies, allowing them to expand without relying on external funding [5] - Ameriprise's year-over-year cash flow growth is 7.9%, exceeding the industry average of 5% [5] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 7.3%, compared to the industry average of 5.4% [6] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions correlate strongly with near-term stock price movements [7] - There have been upward revisions in Ameriprise's current-year earnings estimates, with a 0.5% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past month [8] Group 5: Overall Assessment - Ameriprise holds a Zacks Rank of 2 and a Growth Score of B, indicating its potential as an outperformer and a solid choice for growth investors [10]

Core Viewpoint - Seneca Foods Corporation reported strong financial results for the quarter ended September 27, 2025, with significant increases in net sales, earnings, and margins, despite a challenging market environment [2][12]. Financial Performance - Net sales for Q2 FY2026 increased by 8.1% to $460 million from $425.5 million, driven by higher volumes and favorable pricing [2]. - Gross margin expanded to 13.4% from 10.1%, while operating income surged 68% to $41.5 million from $24.7 million, raising operating margin to 9% from 5.8% [2]. - Net earnings rose 123.6% to $29.7 million from $13.3 million, with diluted EPS climbing 125.8% to $4.29 from $1.90 [2]. EBITDA and Adjusted Earnings - EBITDA increased by 44.6% to $55.7 million from $38.5 million, attributed to higher earnings and lower interest expenses [3]. - On a non-GAAP basis, adjusted net earnings slightly decreased by 2.6% to $23.9 million from $24.6 million, while FIFO EBITDA fell 10.2% to $47.9 million from $53.5 million [3]. Segment Performance - Canned and frozen vegetables were the primary growth drivers, with canned vegetable sales rising 7.4% to $377.3 million and frozen vegetable sales increasing 14.8% to $44.9 million [5]. - Fruit product sales grew 2.1% to $22.8 million, snack products increased by 22.9% to $4.9 million, and the "other" category rose 15% to $10.1 million [5]. Cost Management and Profitability - Interest expenses fell significantly by 48% to $4.7 million from $9 million for the quarter, and by 47.9% for the six-month period [9]. - The company recorded a LIFO credit that reduced the cost of products sold by $7.7 million in the quarter, contrasting with a $15 million LIFO charge in the previous year [8]. Balance Sheet and Debt Management - Long-term debt decreased to $246.4 million from $406.6 million a year earlier, indicating progress in deleveraging [10]. - Total debt also declined, although inventories remained high at $786.5 million on a LIFO basis [10]. Management Commentary - Management described the quarter as a solid step towards normalizing operations after previous harvest and cost challenges, with improved crop yields contributing to better cost predictability [12]. - The company acknowledged ongoing challenges from selling through higher-cost inventory produced in 2024, which continues to impact FIFO gross margins [12]. Factors Influencing Results - The sales increase was largely attributed to higher volumes, with canned and frozen vegetables accounting for most of the gain [13]. - The LIFO credit significantly enhanced gross margin and EBITDA, although adjusted earnings and FIFO EBITDA faced pressure from high-cost inventory [13]. Guidance and Outlook - Seneca did not provide formal quantitative guidance but focused on operational drivers such as crop yields and cost normalization [14]. - Management highlighted ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs, energy costs, and changing consumer preferences [14]. Strategic Focus - During the quarter, Seneca concentrated on core operations and balance sheet management, with no significant acquisitions or restructuring initiatives [15]. - The company engaged in modest share repurchases, indicating a cautious approach to returning cash to shareholders while managing leverage [15].

Market Assessment - The market experienced a slight correction, but excessive speculation is not evident [2] - Continued strong earnings growth and government reopening suggest the market can continue to grind higher into the end of the year [3] - A pullback of less than 5% is not significant [4] - The market hasn't had a 25% pullback since April [4] - Bubblelets in areas like gold and Bitcoin are unlikely to significantly impact the broader market due to strong EPS and earnings growth [5] Risk Factors - Fed tightening is a major risk factor that could lead to market corrections of 20% or more [6] - Exogenous shocks to the economy, such as tariff announcements, can also trigger market downturns [6] Investment Strategy - The S&P 500 is expensive at 23 times earnings, but the equal-weighted index is at 17 times earnings, which helps keep the market in check [7] - Emerging markets and healthcare sectors present alternative investment opportunities [8] - Foreign investors are still buying US assets [9] Market Comparison - The current market situation is more similar to 1997 or 1998, with potential for further capital spending boom [11] - Unlike the tech bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s, companies now have earnings to support their valuations [10]