Meanwhile, S&P 500 did hit a record high this morning, pulling back from those highs with Nvidia's earnings now in the rearview mirror. What's next on the Catalyst Watch. CFR research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall is with us on this Thursday.Great to see you, Sam. Welcome back. Thank you, Carl.Good to talk to you again. So, um I guess is does PCE count. Are we really looking forward ahead to uh to the jobs number in the coming weeks.I think PCE does count, but less so than the jobs report. Uh Fed ...

Katrina Dudley of Franklin Templeton weighs in on this equity market writing. The US market has consolidated after a strong run, but breadth is improving small and mid-caps along with equal weight. S&P 500 are outperforming or keeping pace with the MAX seven.Historically, such rotations signal more durable market leadership and sustained equity gains. And please say that Katrina joins us now. She's senior investment strategist at Franklin Templeton.Katrina, great to see you. Thanks for coming in this mornin ...

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is facing significant pressure due to underestimating medical cost trends, leading to eroded margins and investor concerns [1][2] - Medical costs increased nearly 16% in the first half of 2025, following a 9.2% rise in 2024, with the cost ratio climbing from 83.2% in 2023 to an expected 89.4% by year-end 2025 [1][7] - The company has revised its EPS outlook down to at least $16, with earnings growth not anticipated until 2026 [2][7] Financial Performance - UNH missed earnings estimates in both quarters of 2025 and has seen a significant drop in its EPS outlook from $26–$26.50 to at least $16 [2][7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is projected at $16.21 per share, indicating a 41.4% decline from the previous year [10] Market Reaction - Despite the turmoil, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway purchased over 5 million shares of UNH, valued at approximately $1.57 billion, which spurred additional buying from other investors [3] - UNH shares are down 39.7% year-to-date, which is a steeper decline compared to the industry average of 30.8% [6][7] Industry Context - Peers such as Centene Corporation (CNC) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) are also experiencing challenges due to rising medical costs, leading to significant cuts in their earnings guidance for 2025 [5] - Centene has reduced its adjusted EPS outlook to $1.75 from $7.25, while Elevance has lowered its forecast to $30 from a previous range of $34.15–$34.85 [5] Valuation Metrics - UNH currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.87, above the industry average of 14.96 [9] - The stock carries a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), reflecting the current market sentiment [13]

Core Viewpoint - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) has underperformed compared to its industry and broader market indices, with a year-to-date share price decline of 2.1% against a 7.5% growth in the S&P 500 Composite [1] Company Performance - Kinsale Capital has a market capitalization of $10.6 billion and an average trading volume of 0.2 million shares over the last three months [1] - The company has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.5% [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinsale Capital's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 14%, with revenues projected to reach $1.8 billion, reflecting a 13.4% improvement [6] Valuation Metrics - Kinsale Capital shares are trading at a price-to-book value of 7.07X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.52X, indicating a premium valuation [4][9] - The average price target from analysts for KNSL is $499.11 per share, suggesting an 8.7% upside from the last closing price [11] Growth Projections - The expected long-term earnings growth for Kinsale Capital is pegged at 14.9%, outperforming the industry average of 7% [7] - Revenue growth has been robust, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% from 2019 to 2024, driven by premiums and investment income [9][15] Market Position and Strategy - Kinsale Capital has established a strong position in the U.S. excess and surplus market, benefiting from favorable pricing conditions and healthy broker submissions [15] - The company has maintained an underlying combined ratio below 95%, supported by disciplined underwriting practices [17] - Kinsale's proprietary digital platform enhances operational efficiency and cost management, contributing to sustained market share gains [19] Shareholder Value - Kinsale Capital has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value creation, raising its dividend five times in the past five years, with a total payout growth of 12.43% during this period [21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total assets of the group are valued at $2.6 billion with a weighted average cap rate of 6.77% [1] - The distribution to investors remained flat at $0.85 per security despite a lower asset base [2] - Gearing for the group is at 34.5%, within the target range [2] - Like for like operating earnings rose by 7.7% for the year, with office income increasing by 9.8% [5][6] - The average cost of debt for FY 2025 was 5.1%, with a forecasted reduction to 4.5% in the next twelve months [7][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Office operating earnings increased by 9.8% year on year, supported by a 4.3% rental growth [3][5] - Retail operating earnings grew by 8.8%, driven by CPI-linked rental growth and improved leasing momentum [7][20] - Self-storage earnings from ASK contributed $16.8 million, with management fees adding another $18.1 million [7][21] - Investment management earnings grew by 14% compared to the prior period [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The office portfolio's occupancy is stable at 91%, with positive leasing spreads [6] - Retail properties showed strong turnover rent growth, with MAT growth of 2.7% on FY 2024 [20] - The self-storage sector is viewed favorably, with a RevPAR growth of 4.5% year on year [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on office and retail sectors while exploring capital partnering opportunities [13][24] - Plans to realize $200 to $300 million of non-core asset sales over the next 12 to 18 months to pursue higher returning opportunities [13] - The strategy includes consolidating operating systems to improve efficiency and scalability [13] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted early signs of improving capital and leasing sentiment in the office and retail sectors [2] - The company anticipates a significant reduction in finance costs due to recent interest rate cuts [8] - Future earnings are forecasted at the top of the payout ratio range, contingent on successful leasing programs [8] Other Important Information - The company received its first public credit rating of A+ with a stable outlook, allowing for competitive banking terms [10] - Full-year valuations were impacted by a 27 basis point expansion in cap rates, resulting in an overall value decline of 4% [11] - The company is actively managing lease expiries in its non-core portfolio to protect value [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital recycling and reinvestment strategies - The company is primarily focused on the office and retail sectors for capital reinvestment, while remaining open to other opportunities [27] Question: Insights on office demand and tenant behavior - Office demand is relatively healthy, with companies returning employees to the workplace, shifting focus to workplace efficiency and productivity [28][29] Question: Medium-term potential of 201 Elizabeth Street for residential development - The highest and best use of 201 Elizabeth Street is currently viewed as office, though residential potential is not discounted for the future [34][35] Question: Leasing prospects for 710 Collins Street - There are advanced discussions with interested groups, and the company is optimistic about generating income from this asset by the end of the financial year [36][37] Question: Anticipated transactions in capital partnering for FY 2026 - The company intends to progress capital partnering opportunities and hopes to provide updates in the near future [41]

Market Analysis & Strategy - The market experienced seasonal choppiness, prompting a debate on whether it's a healthy reset or a sign of fragility [1][2] - The current market weakness is viewed as a buying opportunity, contingent on continued profit growth for the remainder of the year and into next year [5] - Consensus earnings forecasts have been inching up, providing support to the market [6] AI Theme & Tech Sector - There's a reevaluation of the AI theme, questioning if companies have been over-credited prematurely [6] - Despite recent negative headlines, the capex story for generative AI is still growing, with hyperscalers increasing their investments [8][9] - AI-related stocks are expected to remain leaders in the market as long as the earnings and capex stories continue to grow [10] Economic Indicators & Sector Rotation - Small caps have shown better performance recently, particularly in the industrial sector, driven by improving news in manufacturing [12][13] - A rotation or rebalancing in the market can continue even if tech remains a cornerstone leader [13][14]

Market Outlook - The market anticipates rate cuts, but strong PMI data suggests an accelerating economy, causing a selloff [1][2] - The market's multiple expansion is tapped out, earnings growth will be the key driver of returns [5] - The Fed's navigation is uncertain due to mixed economic signals, making future rate cuts beyond September uncertain [9][10] Sector Preferences - Technology and communication services are favored due to earnings growth, balance sheets, and profit margins, despite rich valuations [3][4] - Industrials are also attractive due to the onshoring capex boom [4] - Quality stocks with strong balance sheets, high ROE, and good profit margins are preferred amidst volatility [3] US vs Rest of the World - US earnings power is superior, with the S&P 500 tracking over 10% earnings growth, compared to approximately 3% outside the US [6][7] - Europe's market rally is primarily driven by multiple expansion and valuation rerating, which is starting to exhaust [7] Fixed Income - Disinflationary forces, including rising housing inventory (up 15%), declining housing prices, contained oil prices, lower commodity prices, and slowing wage growth, support potential Fed rate cuts [12] - Tariffs are the primary inflationary pressure [13]

Core Insights - Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 GAAP earnings of $1.75 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19.9% and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.4% [1][9] - The company's revenues for the quarter reached $615.4 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.6% and showing a year-over-year growth of 9.9% [1][9] - Non-GAAP revenues, after adjusting for deconversion revenues of $20.5 million, were $594.9 million, representing a 7.5% increase year over year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from Services and Support, accounting for 57.1% of total revenues, were $351.2 million, up 10.9% year over year, driven by growth in data processing and hosting revenues [3] - Processing revenues, which made up 42.9% of total revenues, were $264.1 million, an increase of 8.6% year over year, primarily due to growth in card, transaction, and digital payment processing revenues [4] - Core segment revenues were $189.7 million, up 10.3% year over year, while Payments revenues rose 7.9% to $229.3 million, and Complementary revenues increased 12.9% to $175.1 million [5] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $189.2 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.9%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 100 basis points to 31.8% [6] - Adjusted operating income rose 14.8% year over year to $137.8 million, with the adjusted operating margin increasing by 150 basis points to 23.2% [6] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of June 30, 2025, the company's cash and cash equivalents stood at $102 million, a significant increase from $39.9 million as of March 31, 2025 [7] Future Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Jack Henry & Associates has initiated GAAP revenue guidance of $2.50-$2.48 billion, with non-GAAP revenues expected to be $2.48-$2.46 billion [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $2.53 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6.7% [8] - GAAP earnings are projected to be in the range of $6.44-$6.32 per share, with a year-over-year increase of 5.1% expected [10]

Core Insights - American Express Company (AXP) has outperformed the S&P 500 and broader industry with a 24.3% gain over the past year, although it lagged behind larger peers Visa Inc. (27.7%) and Mastercard Incorporated (25.1%) [1][5] - The company's strong brand and affluent customer base have provided resilience against macroeconomic volatility, maintaining its reputation as a quality investment [2][21] - AXP currently trades below the Wall Street average price target of $321.38, indicating a limited upside of 4.7% from current levels [3][5] Financial Performance - AXP's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.43X, which is below the industry average of 20.56X but above its five-year median of 17.03X, suggesting it may be slightly overvalued historically [8][9] - The company reported a second-quarter interest income of $6.3 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, supported by its unique business model as both a card issuer and a bank [12] - Network volumes rose 7% to $472 billion in the second quarter, driven by resilient consumer spending among its affluent customer base [13] Balance Sheet Strength - AXP holds $57.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents with only $1.5 billion in short-term borrowing, indicating a strong balance sheet [14] - The total assets increased to $295.6 billion from $271.5 billion at the end of 2024, with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 1.91%, significantly lower than the industry average of 16.11% [14] Growth Estimates - Analysts project a 14.3% year-over-year increase in AXP's earnings for 2025, with 2026 earnings expected to grow by 13.7% [16] - Revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicate growth of 8.3% and 8.1%, respectively, with a solid track record of surpassing earnings expectations [16][17] Risks and Challenges - AXP is more exposed to travel and entertainment spending, which can decline sharply during economic downturns, making it vulnerable despite its affluent customer base [18][22] - Rising operating costs have been a concern, with expenses increasing significantly over the past few years, which could pressure margins [19] - The company's domestic focus compared to Visa and Mastercard's global expansion may limit its adaptability to emerging payment trends [20][22]

Core Insights - Phibro Animal Health (PAHC) shares have increased by 76.4% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 4.9% and the S&P 500's 16% gain [1][8] - The company is currently ranked 2 (Buy) by Zacks, indicating strong fundamentals and growth potential [1] Company Overview - Phibro, based in New Jersey, offers a wide range of products for food animals, including poultry, swine, beef, dairy cattle, and aquaculture, as well as ingredients for personal care and industrial sectors [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings in the companion animal sector [2] Growth Drivers - The surge in PAHC's share price is attributed to a strong sales recovery in its Mineral Nutrition and Performance Products segments, with Mineral Nutrition growing by 4% year over year and Performance Products increasing by 28% year over year [3] - The recent acquisition of medicated feed additive products and certain water-soluble products from Zoetis Inc. has expanded Phibro's Animal Health product portfolio [3] International Market Contribution - Approximately 40% of Phibro's total revenues come from international markets, including high-growth regions such as Brazil, China, India, and Southeast Asia [4] Financial Health - Phibro has a solid financial position, with a low short-term payable debt of $16 million compared to total cash and short-term investments of $70.4 million [5] - The company reported an operating profit of $33.4 million for the fiscal third quarter, reflecting a 67.8% year-over-year increase and an expansion of the operating margin by 204 basis points [5] Earnings Estimates - Phibro's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase by 71.4% to $2.04 for fiscal 2025 and by 12.7% to $2.30 for fiscal 2026 [9] - Revenues are expected to grow by 25.7% to $1.28 billion in fiscal 2025 and reach $1.41 billion in fiscal 2026, indicating a 10.1% increase [9]