Kelly, the Fed minutes from the meeting in June on June 17th show that all participants view the view it as appropriate to maintain the Fed funds rate at 4 and a quarter to 4.5%. Now, the committee said it was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. Also, a couple of participants they say noted that they would be open to considering rate cuts as soon as the next meeting that is July, but obviously that's the minority position here.participants note uh dow ...

Treasury Market & Fiscal Policy - The market has largely priced in the impact of the "one big beautiful bill" (tax bill) [2][3] - Tariff revenues are projected to offset a significant portion of the tax bill's cost, with CBO projecting $28 trillion in tariff revenues versus the tax bill's $32 trillion cost [3] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating the market is pricing in an unsustainable deficit trajectory [4] - The market is pricing in some base level of tariffs, potentially 10% on the world and 30% on China or transshipment [7] Economic Outlook & Fed Policy - The underlying economy is slowing but remains above recession levels, leading to expectations of a soft landing [4][5] - Inflation has come in weaker in recent months, leading the market to price in Fed rate cuts, approximately 100 to 120 basis points [5][6] - The market anticipates "good news rate cuts" from the Fed due to the slowing economy and potential for one-time price shocks from tariffs [6] - A risk scenario involves sectoral tariffs causing mini humps or bumps in inflation, which the Fed is closely monitoring [9][10] Fixed Income Investment Strategy - In a soft landing scenario with growth around 1% to 15% and inflation slightly higher, a 4% to 45% tenure seems fair [12] - High-quality fixed income offers attractive yields around 6% to 65%, while high-quality high yield provides around 7% [12] - Fixed income looks attractive due to the potential for diversification and the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates further if the economy slows down [13]

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market's focus should be on clarity regarding fiscal policy uncertainty rather than solely on Fed rate cuts [3] - The bond market signals concerns about deficits and debt levels, potentially limiting policy room for market advancement [5] - Despite markets near all-time highs, investors are seeking opportunities to deploy capital [7] Investment Strategy & Sector Performance - The firm is using the correction and rally to reposition portfolios, not to de-risk or build cash positions, anticipating better-than-expected Q2 earnings [10] - The firm favors quality-oriented technicals over deep value stories, expecting strong results from financials, industrials, and perennial tech [11] - An alternative perspective suggests taking profits on industrials and fading the rally on small caps [9] Economic Indicators - The dollar experienced its worst first half of the year in approximately 50 years [4] - While a steepening yield curve historically indicates positive growth, current dynamics suggest a more bearish outlook related to deficits and debt [6][7] - The 30-year bond is near a 15-year high [4]

Let's stick with the tariffs and the impact on markets as the major indices come off their worst day since about the middle of June. Joining us here at Post 9 this morning is city's research headed global strategy Rob once again with us. Welcome back Rob.Good to see you. Thank you very much. Hi Courtney.The president says August 1 is the date. Does that introduce new uh instability for equities or not. right now.I think, you know, I think it's going to be up and down because we're in this negotiation period ...

Market Analysis and Predictions - The analysis suggests the US dollar index (DXY) is nearing a low point, potentially within the next few months [17][18][24] - The dollar's recent weakness is attributed to perceived weakness against trading partners and upcoming tariff deadlines [19][20] - The analysis anticipates a bounce in the dollar index, potentially after rate cuts in September, citing a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a higher chance of a 50 basis point rate cut [20][21] - The dollar index has been in a massive parallel channel since 2008, and is currently at the bottom of this channel [10][11] - The analysis suggests that the majority of the losses for the dollar in 2025 have already occurred, comparing it to the 2017 cycle [25][26] Technical Indicators and Historical Patterns - The analysis points to a long-term trend line that has been respected for a long time, suggesting it will likely find a higher low compared to the last cycle [23][24] - The analysis notes similarities between the current cycle and the 2016-2017 cycle, including a breakdown in the post-election year [15][16] - The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the dollar is low, historically leading to a bounce [33][34] - The daily RSI for the dollar has recently moved into oversold territory, often resulting in a bounce [34] Correlation and Risk Assets - The analysis emphasizes that the dollar's performance is relative to other fiat currencies, not necessarily to assets like Bitcoin or gold [8] - The analysis highlights that the correlation between the dollar and risk assets like Bitcoin is not always consistent, especially outside of midterm years [30][31][32]

[Music] On June 18th, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its most recent FOMC meeting where they left the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth straight time and gave the largely expected comments about continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The chairman mentioned particular uncertainty around the inflationary effects of tariff policy. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.we're beginning to see ...

Currency Market - The dollar is rapidly declining in value [1] - Expectation of seven interest rate cuts could potentially drive the dollar to a value of 85 [1]

Market Sentiment & Geopolitics - The market is currently overlooking geopolitical risks, inflation, and potential trade wars [12] - Market participants believe current uncertainty levels are manageable [5] - Closing the straits would be a significant market-moving event impacting crude oil and the S&P [2] Oil Price & Inflation - Oil prices are crucial for managing inflation and potentially enabling interest rate cuts [4] - A jump in Brent or WTI crude oil prices impacting consumer spending could negatively affect the market [3] - Crude oil being down 6% was unexpected given recent events [1] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - The Fed's actions are currently more influential than other factors [7][8] - The market anticipates the Fed stepping in and potentially moving towards rate cuts, benefiting sectors that would gain from such a move [8][9] - Some voices suggest rate cuts may come sooner and be more frequent than previously anticipated [12] - The Fed seems comfortable with PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) at 31%, until the labor market weakens [7] - There's a possibility of yields approaching 5% due to ongoing concerns, even if the market is currently disregarding them [14]

All right, we turn our attention to the ETFs. Uh we're tracking ETF flows that are that are now over $531 billion year to date, putting us on track for another trillion dollar year. We're also looking at the moves above and below the 30-day moving averages for the popular index funds, the spy and the triple Q's on this holiday shorten week.This week, we saw a literal flight to quality. The the Invesco S&P 500 quality ETF ticker SPHQ saw the top inflows this week, but has underperformed the market this week ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the Fed funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% despite pressure for deeper rate cuts from the Trump administration [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated ongoing economic considerations influencing the decision [1]