So, is the market sending an all clear signal on the economy and the policy path ahead. Or is it time again to start looking out for what might trip things up. Let's ask Black Rockck's Rick Reer.He's CIO of Global Fixed Income and head of the global allocation team there. Rick, great to have you. Good to see you.Yeah, appreciate it. What's your read on uh on what we're getting from the markets here in ter I mean it feels like this is how the markets trade when kind of soft landing risk has been mitigated an ...

We're going to begin with one of the biggest issues for companies this year. That's tariffs. We're going to share some of the strongest opinions when it comes to that.41% strongly agree that tariffs will directly cost their company more. 52% say tariffs will impact suppliers and indirectly raise their cost. 10% agree somewhat the tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US. Then we have 66% that that disagree either strongly or disagree somewhat that tariffs will help the US economy.Of course, tariffs a ...

Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sausnik and Invesco global market strategist Brian Levit both joined me here on set. What a treat to have you here in the studio with me. Um Steve, I'm going to start with you.Have you been surprised by the market moves we've we've seen this week, especially given the geopolitical backdrop. Yes and no. I mean, we didn't really react negatively to the geopolitics, Morgan, but we but we seem so sort of more of a speed bump than a than a than a real reason to sell off ...

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So, one of the very valid criticisms of the Federal Reserve, where I worked for nearly a decade, is that they're looking at very lagged data that really is backward-looking as opposed to trying to pay closer attention to some of the especially rich realtime economic data that we have in hand right now. Unfortunately, it feels like the Fed is pretty much what we call behind the curve. So, they should be lowering interest rates and yet because they're driving using the rearview mirror, they're late to the gam ...

Economic Data & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledges a slight degradation in the scope of economic surveys but expresses concern about the direction of travel regarding the accuracy and reliability of US economic measurement [4] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of accurate economic data for itself, Congress, and businesses to understand the state of the economy, including growth levels [4][5][6] - The Fed notes that current interest rates are at higher levels, providing significantly more room for cuts compared to periods of very low interest rates [15] Inflation & Tariffs - Retailers anticipate tariff-related inflation to become more apparent in future data, as current sales reflect inventory from previous months [8][9] - There is uncertainty regarding how much of the tariff impact will be passed on to consumers; the effect could be lower or higher than expected [10] - Companies may increase prices on non-tariffed goods to compensate for losses incurred due to tariffs on price-elastic goods [11][12] - The Fed acknowledges the possibility of companies increasing prices on necessities, even if not subject to tariffs, to offset losses from tariffed goods, as seen in past tariff episodes [12][13] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Congress is considering a proposal to cut $56 million from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), raising concerns about the agency's ability to collect accurate data and provide reliable indicators [3]

Retail Sector Overview - Investors are increasingly nervous about the retail sector due to concerns over tariffs impacting consumer spending and the potential for a recession [1] - The S&P 500 Retail Composite has declined by 1.8% year-to-date as of June 18, while the S&P 500 index has increased by 1.7% [1] Home Depot - Home Depot is the leading home improvement retailer, generating approximately $160 billion in sales from nearly 2,350 stores in the latest fiscal year [3] - The company faces challenges tied to the broader economy and housing market, with same-store sales falling by 0.3% in the fiscal first quarter ending May 4, and management projecting a modest 1% growth for the year [4] - Despite a 1.9% decline in stock price over the past year, Home Depot's P/E ratio remains at 24, lower than the S&P 500's 29 [6] Target - Target has experienced sales declines due to macroeconomic factors and tariff policies, with fiscal first-quarter same-store sales dropping by 3.8% [7][8] - The company has lowered its earnings expectations for the year, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $7 and $9, down from a previous range of $8.80 to $9.80 [9] - Target's stock price has decreased by over 33% in the last year, with its P/E ratio falling from 16 to 10, presenting a potential buying opportunity for patient investors [10]

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the Equityverse. Today we're going to talk about the year-to- date ROI of the S&P 500. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Making a lot of short videos. As I said, I'll be traveling uh for the next week or so.Uh so, by the time you see these videos, you know, who knows how old they're going to be, but I just want ...

All right, let's start with the Fed, but we've got a lot of ground to cover. Um, what are your expectations when it comes to the outlook. I think we all know there's not going to be a cut, but when we're talking about the outlook, what are you expecting and how do you see that impacting the markets in the near term.Yeah, it's a good question. I think um the focus will really be on the number of uh cuts that going to be pencileled in. Our expectation is going to be that it's going to be around two cuts still ...

Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - The market economy is inherently subject to boom and bust cycles, even with Federal Reserve intervention [1] - For active portfolio management, gaining a personal understanding of the economy is crucial [2] - Index funds are recommended for bedrock investing, while individual stocks are suitable for discretionary investments [2] Economic Indicators & Sector Sensitivity - Key stock groups can signal an impending economic slowdown, especially when employment numbers are strong [4] - Certain sectors are more economically sensitive and tend to be affected early in a recession [4] Information Sources - Traditional methods are still necessary to understand the economy [4] - Stay informed through various channels, including following Jim Kramer on X (formerly Twitter), emailing madmoney@cnbc.com, or visiting madmoney.cnbc.com [5]