Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - Ironside's macroeconomics director of research has been advocating for 100 basis points (1%) of rate cuts this year, anticipating an economic downturn [1] - The market views a 0.25% rate cut as a bonus, while Ironside believes more significant action is needed to address the real economy [2] - The Fed's tightening policy, primarily through rate hikes, has created tight financial conditions, especially for small businesses with floating rate loans [3] Regional Banks & Small Businesses - The spread between the return on equity of regional banks and large banks is near historic wides, approximately 4% [3] - Small banks are struggling to earn their cost of capital, hindering credit creation and lending activities [4] - The Fed's tightening policy has disproportionately impacted the small business sector, reflected in the underperformance of the Russell 2000 [4] Impact on Specific Sectors - A steeper yield curve, facilitated by rate cuts, is crucial for reviving the housing market and lowering financing rates for floating rate borrowers [5] - Labor market data may be overestimating monthly job growth by nearly 80,000 jobs per month, potentially indicating zero employment growth or even a recession in the labor market [6] - While financial conditions remain relatively loose for those financing out the curve, Main Street businesses are facing tough conditions [7]

It is always hilarious when economists are freaking out over things like "Recession odds are now 37%!!!!"....so there is a 63% chance we don't get a recession.Someone should tell them to calm down and go back to their classroom. ...

Macroeconomic Outlook - The report suggests that recessions might be a thing of the past due to fiscal dominance, structural inflation, and relentless asset debasement [1] - The analysis covers a potential shift in US dominance [2] - The discussion includes the death of the "2% inflation target" [1] Investment Strategies - The report explores how investors should position themselves in this new era [1] - Portfolio construction strategies are discussed in the context of permanent stimulus [1][2] - The role of tech and energy sectors is examined [1] Key Economic Factors - The U S supercycle is a key topic [1] - Inflationary forces are analyzed [2] - The potential for an AI bubble is considered [2]

Market Overview - The fourth quarter of 2025 is approaching with potential market instability due to geopolitical conflicts, weakening employment numbers, and recession signs [1] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at 15.2, down 15% year to date, indicating low investor concern, but this can change rapidly [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to seek safety during volatile markets while also considering potential upside opportunities [3] - The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) is highlighted as an interesting investment option amid market uncertainties [3] Invesco QQQ Trust Overview - The Invesco QQQ Trust is a passively managed index fund tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index, which includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq [4] - The fund's heavy allocation in technology stocks (60.8%) allows investors to avoid financial stocks that typically underperform in downturns [5] Fund Composition - The QQQ ETF is weighted by market capitalization, with the top 10 stocks comprising 52.77% of the fund [6] - Major holdings include Nvidia (9.24%), Microsoft (8.36%), Apple (8.12%), and others, indicating a strong focus on growth rather than income [6][7]

What will happen if we enter a recession?You no longer need to guess the answer to that question.We just launched "Scenario Planning" for all users of @cfosilvia.You can now ask her in the Scenarios tab "what happens if we enter a recession?"Silvia will give you excruciating detail about what to expect. This feature is very powerful.Try it free today: https://t.co/bMI7hLeciU ...

RT Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano)I sat down with @jvisserlabs to discuss discuss Oracle going up 40%, what is going on in the stock market, the job revision, the latest in artificial intelligence, bitcoin, interest rates, and where asset prices could be headed.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/lpHLMtNbQ4Spotify: https://t.co/YfXJCJhnxVApple: https://t.co/TwtRj5lVmTTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:59 - Why are there massive moves in the stock market?3:38 - What’s going on with inflation and tariffs9:25 - Is there an ar ...

📉 ADM ISI Chief Economist & Global Strategist Marc Ostwald (@MOstwald1) says recession fears may be exaggerated:“If people expect a 1–2% contraction, that’s probably over-egging it. We’re talking about something closer to -0.5%—not encouraging for risk appetite, but not an ‘oh my goodness’ moment. Governments have too much debt and little fiscal headroom to borrow more.” ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is experiencing a strong rally, driven by positive earnings, steady economic conditions, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, although Goldman Sachs has identified potential risks that could impact stock prices [1][2][5]. Economic Conditions - The US economy is perceived to be in a favorable position, with resilient growth and signs of weakness in certain sectors, such as the job market, which may allow for interest rate cuts by the Fed [2][5]. - August inflation data met economists' expectations, maintaining optimism for future rate cuts [3]. Market Risks - Goldman Sachs highlighted two primary risks that could hinder the stock market's upward momentum: concerns about a potential recession and a possible reduction in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. - The market has been buoyed by weak job growth and slowing manufacturing activity, which have supported the case for rate cuts, but this situation could change rapidly [6]. Recession Concerns - There is an ongoing concern about a potential recession, although investors have largely dismissed these risks, with the market-implied US forward growth rate estimated at around 1.6%, indicating expectations for growth near historical norms [7]. - A continued weakening in the job market could shift investor sentiment, especially if the unemployment rate rises sharply, which would prompt the market to anticipate earlier rate cuts and put pressure on equities [8][9].

Recession Outlook - Jordy Visser believes there is no possibility of a recession due to government and Fed intervention preventing massive job losses [2] - Nominal GDP is growing at 3%, supported by revenue growth for companies and the buildout of AI [3][4] - The economy is undergoing a significant change with consumption driven by healthcare, alongside growing industrial needs in power, pumps, batteries, and solar [7][8] Oracle's Performance - Oracle's stock surged 41%, reaching a market cap of $954 billion [8] - Larry Ellison owns 43% of Oracle, valued at $410 billion [9] - Since 2011, Oracle has spent $155 billion on buybacks, reducing shares from 5 billion to under 3 billion [9] Open Door's Strategy - Open Door hired a new CEO from Shopify with a $1 per year salary, incentivized by stock appreciation [10][11] - The new CEO could potentially earn $6 billion if the stock reaches $82 a share [11] - The company aims to become lean and drive more revenue with the new leadership [13][14]

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.06% as of September 12, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.56% and the 30-year note at 4.68% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo [2] Group 2: Inverted Yield Curve and Recession Indicators - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession from the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]