Group 1: Economic Context - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warns that unemployment and inflation are likely to rise due to economic slowdown and tariffs, indicating potential stagflation [2] - Trump's tariffs could lead to a combination of slowing economic growth and increasing inflation, raising concerns for investors [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Dominion Energy is highlighted as a strong investment during stagflation due to its essential service of electricity, with a forward dividend yield of 5.13% and expected EPS growth of 5% to 7% annually [3][6] - Kroger is positioned to benefit from consistent consumer demand for groceries, with its share price rising amid market turbulence, and it has less exposure to international tariffs compared to peers [7][8][9] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is noted for its unique position in the market with approved medications for cystic fibrosis and a new pain medication, suggesting resilience in its share price despite economic challenges [11][13][14]

Market Reaction - Large-cap financial stocks, including American Express, Blackstone, and Ally Financial, experienced significant declines on Monday, with drops of 4.3%, 7.8%, and 5.1% respectively [1] - The broader market downturn was attributed to concerns over President Trump's comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, which were perceived as a threat to the Fed's independence and raised inflation risks [2][6] Trade and Economic Concerns - China issued warnings to countries negotiating trade deals with the U.S., complicating the potential for successful agreements, which are crucial for alleviating economic pressures [3][7] - Ongoing tariff policies pose dual risks of recession and inflation, potentially leading to stagflation [4] Federal Reserve's Position - Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated that the Fed would likely maintain a pause on interest rate cuts due to anticipated inflation from tariffs, which could further weaken the economy [5] - The market reacted negatively to Trump's pressure on the Fed, leading to declines in economically sensitive stocks [6][8] Company-Specific Insights - American Express and Ally Financial could face lower lending activity and increased charge-offs in a recessionary scenario, impacting their performance [9] - Blackstone, while having opportunities to deploy its $177 billion in cash, may struggle with exits from existing investments, affecting its dividend payouts [10][11] Analyst Sentiment - All three companies reported earnings that beat estimates, but the outlook from analysts remains mixed, reflecting high uncertainty due to external economic factors [12][13] - Despite the uncertainty, periods of high volatility may present buying opportunities for long-term investors in high-quality stocks like Blackstone and American Express, which are currently trading at discounted prices [14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock markets are experiencing extreme volatility due to the imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration, which has raised concerns about a potential global trade war and its impact on the U.S. economy [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The baseline tariff of 10% was imposed on all imports starting April 5, 2025, with rates reaching as high as 145% for certain countries like China [2][3]. - The S&P 500 index is currently in correction territory, having declined by 8.6% year to date, and was trading close to bear market levels last week [5]. Group 2: Featured Stocks - A selection of stocks that have provided double-digit returns year to date includes American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK), Exelon Corp. (EXC), CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), and Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO), all carrying a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6]. Group 3: American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK) - AWK is benefiting from contributions from acquired assets and military contracts, with new water and wastewater rates enhancing performance [7]. - The company is expanding its operations through both organic and inorganic initiatives, with 17 pending acquisitions expected to add 24,200 customers [9]. - AWK has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.6% and 6.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a recent 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate [10]. Group 4: Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Exelon's investments are aimed at strengthening its transmission and distribution infrastructure, with initiatives in grid modernization expected to enhance service reliability [11]. - The company anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.2% and 6.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [12]. Group 5: CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP is positioned to benefit from increasing electricity demand driven by the electrification of transportation and investments in renewable energy [13]. - The company has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.2% and 8%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.6% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 60 days [16]. Group 6: The Progressive Corp. (PGR) - PGR is experiencing growth due to higher premiums and a strong product portfolio, focusing on becoming a one-stop insurance destination [17]. - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for PGR are 16.1% and 10.9%, respectively, with a 1% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last seven days [18]. Group 7: Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) - BRO's growth trajectory is supported by a compelling portfolio and strategic initiatives that enhance its capabilities and geographic reach [19]. - The company has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 8.4% and 9.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [20].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing extreme volatility in April due to the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with a baseline tariff of 10% on all imports and rates as high as 145% for certain countries like China [1][2] - The S&P 500 index is currently in correction territory, trading almost in bear market zone, with a year-to-date decline of 8.6% [3] Investment Opportunities - Despite the overall market downturn, a handful of S&P 500 stocks have provided double-digit returns year to date, with five recommended stocks carrying a favorable Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy): American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK), Exelon Corp. (EXC), CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), and Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) [4] American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK) - AWK is benefiting from contributions from acquired assets and military contracts, with new water and wastewater rates boosting performance [8] - The company is expanding operations through organic and inorganic initiatives, with 17 pending acquisitions expected to add 24,200 customers [10] - AWK has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.6% and 6.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last seven days [11] Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Exelon's investments are aimed at strengthening its transmission and distribution infrastructure, with initiatives in grid modernization improving operational resilience [12] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.2% and 6.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [13] CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP is positioned to benefit from increasing electricity demand due to the electrification of transportation and investments in renewable energy [14] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 3.2% and 8%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.6% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 60 days [17] The Progressive Corp. (PGR) - PGR is gaining from higher premiums and a strong product portfolio, focusing on becoming a one-stop insurance destination [18] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 16.1% and 10.9%, respectively, for the current year, with a 1% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last seven days [19] Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) - BRO's growth trajectory is driven by organic and inorganic initiatives, enhancing its capabilities and geographic reach [20] - The company has expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 8.4% and 9.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [22]

11 April 2025 | 9:59PM BST GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagf ...

Group 1 - Alphabet Inc. has experienced a significant decline of 25% since the release of its 4Q FY2024 earnings report, primarily due to a mixed earnings performance [1] - The initial selloff was triggered by the earnings report, which did not meet investor expectations [1] Group 2 - The company is listed on multiple exchanges, including NASDAQ and TSX, under the ticker symbols GOOG and GOOGL [1]

Group 1: Amazon - Amazon could benefit significantly if tariffs lead to increased consumer buying power and reshoring of manufacturing, as more consumers may shop on its platform and utilize its cloud services [2][3] - The stock price of Amazon remains over 20% below its previous high, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors if Trump's tariff policy is successful [4] Group 2: Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is positioned to perform well in a scenario where tariffs lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth, as it markets the only approved therapies for cystic fibrosis and is expanding its product offerings [5][6] - The company is also evaluating drugs in late-stage testing for kidney diseases and has a potential cure for severe type 1 diabetes, indicating strong future growth prospects [7] Group 3: Barrick Gold - Barrick Gold is likely to perform well in a worst-case scenario of a global trade war and recession, as gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during economic turmoil [8][10] - The average analyst's 12-month price target for Barrick Gold suggests an upside potential of around 27%, indicating strong investor interest in the stock amid market volatility [10]

Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ: MSFT was already down about 9% for the year. So shareholders can’t be too scared of the additional sell-off in MSFT stock since the Trump tariff policy caused the markets to swoon. However, with the stock trading near its 52-week low and at a level not seen since October 2023, it’s fair to ask if the stock has become too cheap to ignore. Microsoft TodayMSFTMicrosoft$354.56 -3.30 (-0.92%) 52-Week Range$344.79▼$468.35Dividend Yield0.94%P/E Ratio28.55Price Target$508.00Add to Wat ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a high chance of moving towards a recession baseline forecast, indicating a bearish outlook for the market [2][16][35] Core Insights - The market has experienced a significant downgrade in growth views following recent tariff announcements, with the downgrade being historically large, equivalent to a roughly 130 basis points drop in the 1-year ahead GDP growth view for the US [5][16] - The current market pricing does not fully reflect the potential for a recession, as historical comparisons indicate that typical recessions are associated with larger equity drawdowns and more substantial declines in the Fed funds rate than currently priced [16][27] - A policy shift, particularly in trade policy, is viewed as the most direct route to market recovery, with the potential for a significant reversal in intended tariff policy being crucial for stabilization [36][37] Summary by Sections Market Reaction to Tariffs - The market price action has been dramatic, with a broad-based decline across global equities and commodities following the tariff announcements [3][4] - Financial conditions have tightened sharply, and the initial focus on US assets has shifted to a more global perspective [3][4] Growth Downgrade and Policy Reaction - The report indicates a large growth downgrade alongside a hawkish policy reaction, with the market pricing reflecting a more constrained Fed response than usual [4][9] - The implied market growth decline for April 3 and 4 represents the largest 2-day move outside significant historical events such as Black Monday and the COVID lockdown [5][9] Recession Pricing and Market Conditions - Current market conditions suggest that a full recession is not yet fully priced, with only the VIX indicating levels associated with past recession peaks, while other common recession gauges remain below those levels [28][34] - The report highlights that the risks still skew to the downside unless there is a shift in the policy path, with a high chance of further weakness in equity markets and wider credit spreads if recession pricing continues to develop [35][36]

Market Overview - The Dow experienced significant volatility, moving 2500 points within the first hour, ultimately closing down -349 points (-0.91%) [1] - The S&P 500 decreased by -11 points (-0.23%), while the Nasdaq managed a slight gain of +15 points (+0.10%) [1] - The small-cap Russell index fell by -16 points (-0.92%) [1] Tariff Negotiations - Some countries are open to negotiating trade levels with the U.S., but President Trump remains firm on his tariff policies, threatening an additional +50% tariff on China if they do not remove their retaliatory +34% tariff [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs issued a note titled "Countdown to Recession," predicting a U.S. recession if current tariff policies persist [3] - BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink suggested looking for buying opportunities but warned that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year, with many believing a recession is already underway [3] Inflation and Bond Yields - Concerns about tariffs leading to higher prices and potential stagflation were raised, with bond yields increasing approximately 20 basis points, bringing the 10-year yield above +4.2% and the 2-year yield around +3.92% [4] Upcoming Economic Data - The NFIB optimism index for March is expected to be released, with the previous month showing a reading of 100.7, although a dip below 100 is anticipated [4] - Q1 earnings season is set to begin, with Delta reporting on Wednesday and major banks like JPMorgan releasing results on Friday [5] - CalMaine Foods, a significant supplier of shell eggs, is scheduled to report earnings after the market closes, currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5]