China Autonomous Driving Equities Robotaxi: The future is now China Automobiles Yuqian Ding* Head of China Autos Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited yuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk +852 2288 5108 Michel Liu* (Reg. No. S1700524090001) Analyst, China Autos HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited michel.m.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn +8610 5795 2351 Robotaxis on a roll. Driverless taxi services are now available in selected geofenced areas in major cities, reflecting the growing maturity of the technology and ...

Core Insights - Tesla's stock has rebounded as investors focus on its AI ambitions alongside its electric vehicle business, particularly the commercialization of an autonomous ride-hailing network called Robotaxi [1][5] - The debate continues regarding Tesla's vision-only approach to autonomy without LIDAR, questioning its scalability and effectiveness compared to sensor-heavy alternatives [2][10] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla's operating income fell 42% year-over-year to approximately $0.9 billion, with a 4.1% operating margin due to pricing pressure and mix affecting automotive profitability [4] - Tesla produced over 410,000 vehicles and delivered more than 384,000 vehicles in the same quarter, while energy storage deployments reached 9.6 GWh, indicating growth in this segment [4] Autonomy Strategy - Tesla's long-term investment thesis is heavily reliant on achieving autonomy, which could significantly alter its earnings profile by layering higher-margin software revenue on a large fleet [6][13] - CEO Elon Musk emphasizes that Tesla's vision approach mirrors human driving, using cameras and AI instead of LIDAR, which simplifies hardware and reduces costs [8][10] Market Position and Future Outlook - The success of Tesla's vision-only system hinges on its ability to handle edge cases and prove safer than human driving, with investors needing to monitor software adoption and regulatory approvals closely [11][12] - The company's strategy could lead to faster deployment and improved unit economics if it meets safety standards, but it raises expectations for software progress and real-world validation [14][15]

Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet is trading at a forward P/E ratio of around 22.5 based on 2026 estimates, which is a discount compared to its AI peers despite its diversified business model and strong emerging bets in areas like robotaxis and quantum computing [3] - Concerns that AI would negatively impact Google Search have been alleviated as search revenue growth accelerated last quarter, driven by new AI features that increase user engagement [4][6] - Alphabet maintains a strong distribution edge with Chrome controlling over two-thirds of the browser market and Android powering nearly three-quarters of smartphones, ensuring it remains the default entry point to the internet for billions [5] - The integration of AI into search is enhancing user engagement and monetization, with new features driving incremental queries, particularly with shopping intent, leveraging Alphabet's extensive global ad network [6] - Google Cloud is experiencing significant growth, with revenue soaring 32% last quarter and segment profits more than doubling, positioning Alphabet advantageously in the capacity-constrained cloud computing industry [7] - Overall, Alphabet is considered one of the best megacap tech stocks with substantial potential for further growth at its current valuation [8] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is a critical player in the AI space, trading at 23 times 2026 earnings estimates, making it an attractive investment given its role in enabling the AI boom [9] - TSMC dominates the semiconductor industry, manufacturing the majority of advanced semiconductors for leading companies, and has consistently outperformed competitors like Intel and Samsung in terms of yield and scale [10][11] - The demand for AI chips is surging, with Nvidia predicting the AI infrastructure market will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion in the next five years, and TSMC forecasting a more than 40% CAGR in AI chip demand through 2028 [13] - TSMC's strong pricing power is evident as it plans to raise prices by 10% next year, further solidifying its market position [13] - Beyond AI, TSMC is also poised to benefit from growth in sectors such as autonomous driving, robotics, and quantum computing, making it a top long-term investment in the AI space [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market is currently expensive, with the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio nearing historical highs and many stocks at high valuations [1] - Despite the expensive market, there are still quality companies trading at reasonable valuations [2] Group 2: UnitedHealth Group - UnitedHealth Group's stock price has decreased nearly 32% since the beginning of 2025, facing multiple federal investigations and legal pressures [4][5] - The company underestimated medical cost trends, leading to a significant earnings miss in the second quarter, with adjusted earnings per share at $4.08, below forecasts [5][6] - UnitedHealth has reduced its full-year earnings guidance to $16 per share from an initial midpoint of $26.25 per share [6] - Analysts have lowered price targets, viewing 2025 as a reset year, but optimism for 2026 remains due to potential premium adjustments and growth in the Optum segment [7] - The stock is priced at 19.4 times next year's forecast earnings, making it relatively cheap on a historical basis [8] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet trades at a forward P/E ratio in the mid-20s, which is appealing compared to the S&P 500 P/E of 30.2 [9] - The company processes 5 trillion queries annually and generated $104.9 billion in revenue from its search division in the first half of the year, growing 11% [10] - Alphabet is adapting to the impact of large language models on its search business, with AI Overviews driving an additional 10% in global queries [11] - Ventures like Waymo and Google Cloud present promising growth prospects, with Waymo expanding to over a quarter of a million paid passenger trips weekly [12][13] - Google Cloud has seen strong customer demand, with deals over $250 million doubling year over year and a 28% surge in new customers quarter over quarter [13] - With over $95 billion in cash reserves, Alphabet is well-positioned for future growth and capital returns [13]

Summary of Lucid Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lucid Group - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Points and Arguments Product Performance and Demand - The interim CEO, Mark Winterhof, expressed high satisfaction with the performance of the Lucid Gravity, stating it might be the best car he has ever driven, highlighting its 828 horsepower and premium materials [5][9] - The Gravity model starts below $100,000, with a version around $80,000, indicating a strategy to cater to different price segments while maintaining high performance [7][9] - Demand for the Gravity is strong, despite initial offerings being higher-priced models, with expectations to ramp up production significantly in Q3 and Q4 [10][18] Market Position and Competition - The CEO noted concerns regarding the increasing presence of Chinese automotive manufacturers but expressed confidence in Lucid's competitive technology and innovation [13][14] - Lucid aims to differentiate itself through best-in-class technology and does not plan to enter lower price segments (e.g., $25,000-$30,000) [15][16] Production and Supply Chain - Lucid has set a production target of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles for the year, with internal plans aiming for the higher end of that range [18][19] - The company faced initial supplier issues but is now overcoming these challenges and ramping up production [10][17] Autonomy and Partnerships - Lucid is focusing on advancing its autonomy capabilities, with partnerships established with Uber and Nuro for robotaxi services [25][29] - The company is working on both partnerships and internal developments to achieve Level 4 autonomy, with plans to integrate this technology into personal vehicles as well [72][73] Strategic Partnerships and Financial Outlook - The CEO emphasized the importance of strategic partnerships, particularly with technology firms, to enhance Lucid's capabilities and market reach [60][66] - Lucid's largest shareholder, the Saudi Arabian government, provides long-term strategic value, allowing the company to focus on sustainable growth rather than short-term financial pressures [66][68] Manufacturing and Onshoring - Lucid is enhancing automation in its manufacturing processes in Casa Grande, Arizona, to improve productivity and efficiency [85][86] - The company is confident in its ability to train a workforce for complex manufacturing despite the initial lack of experience in the region [86] Financial Viability and Profitability - Lucid aims to achieve profitability through its vehicle sales and additional revenue streams from software and robotaxi services, without entering the low-cost vehicle market [54][55] - The CEO believes that Lucid's business model is sustainable and aligned with its brand values of uncompromised quality [55][56] Additional Important Insights - The CEO noted that the automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards electrification, and Lucid is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [12] - The company is exploring alternative materials and suppliers to mitigate risks associated with rare earth materials, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions [21][22] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Lucid Group conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market positioning, and operational challenges.

Autonomous Driving Development - Tesla has received Nevada DMV approval to test autonomous vehicles (robotaxis) on public roads [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc. is unlikely to achieve Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy without addressing existing hardware issues, as stated by Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki [1][2]. Group 1: Hardware and Software Issues - Ross Gerber criticized Tesla CEO Elon Musk for focusing on software improvements while neglecting necessary hardware fixes, questioning the effectiveness of software alone in resolving Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) challenges [2][3]. - Gerber expressed frustration over the slow progress of Tesla's autonomous driving system, questioning why FSD has not met its promised capabilities after years of development [3]. Group 2: FSD System Definition and Legal Challenges - Tesla has revised the definition of its FSD system, clarifying that it does not provide full autonomous capabilities and requires human supervision at all times [4][5]. - The company is facing lawsuits from investors and customers regarding alleged misrepresentations of the FSD system's capabilities and safety [6]. Group 3: Robotaxi Expansion and App Launch - Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi service in Austin, now operating on highways, with safety operators moved to the driver's seat [7]. - The Robotaxi app has been launched on the Apple App Store, quickly gaining popularity, although users must join a waitlist to access the service [7].

Core Insights - Kodiak Robotics has successfully delivered its first autonomous truck directly from a factory production line, marking a significant milestone in the company's operations [1] - The partnership with Roush Industries is pivotal for scaling the production of autonomous trucks, with plans to produce hundreds of units by the end of 2026 [3] Company Developments - The first Roush-upfitted truck was delivered to Atlas Energy Solutions, which had previously placed an order for 100 Kodiak Driver-equipped trucks starting in December 2024 [2] - As of now, Atlas has received eight of these driverless trucks, indicating a gradual rollout of the technology [2] Manufacturing Partnership - Roush Industries has established a dedicated production line for upfitting autonomous trucks, demonstrating its capability to meet Kodiak's high standards [3][4] - The collaboration is expected to enhance the efficiency and scalability of Kodiak's manufacturing process [4] Market Positioning - Kodiak Robotics aims to transform the freight and logistics market through its partnership with Roush, positioning itself strongly within the trucking industry [2] - The company is also planning to go public via a SPAC merger with Ares Acquisition Corporation II, with a potential Nasdaq listing on September 25 [4]

Core Insights - The autonomous ride-hailing market is intensifying, with Amazon's Zoox launching free rides in Las Vegas, while Lyft expands its autonomous offerings in Atlanta [1][4][2] Group 1: Amazon and Zoox - Amazon's Zoox is now providing free rides along the Las Vegas Strip, with plans to expand citywide and charge for rides after obtaining regulatory approval [2] - Zoox was acquired by Amazon in 2020 for $1.2 billion and has been testing its technology in Las Vegas and San Francisco [2] - Zoox's vehicles are custom-designed without steering wheels, allowing riders to face each other, differing from traditional autonomous vehicles [3] Group 2: Competitors and Market Dynamics - Waymo, backed by Alphabet, leads the autonomous taxi market, having surpassed 10 million paid rides and planning expansions into new cities [3] - Lyft has launched a pilot program for autonomous rides in Atlanta in partnership with May Mobility, aiming to compete with Uber's offerings [4][5] - Uber has partnered with Waymo for autonomous rides in multiple cities and is investing hundreds of millions in startups to develop its own robotaxi service [6] Group 3: Stock Performance - Uber's stock decreased by 1.4% to $94.14, while Lyft's stock increased by 2.3% to $18.82, with Lyft's shares up 47% year-to-date and Uber's up 56% [7] - Amazon's stock fell over 3% to $230.84 amid concerns about competition from Oracle in the cloud space [8]

Zoox robotaxi at Resorts World Las VegasZooxZoox, Amazon’s robotaxi unit, has started offering rides to the public, at no charge for now, from multiple set locations in Las Vegas, hoping its custom-built electric vehicles that lack steering wheels, pedals and conventional controls will distinguish the autonomous ridehail service from Alphabet’s Waymo.Starting today, a few dozen Zoox vehicles will be picking up and dropping off passengers at five locations around Sin City, including Resorts World Las Vegas, ...