Opinion: Thank 'Too Late' Jerome Powell for the jobs and inflation beats - MarketWatch## Brett Arends's ROI# Opinion: Thank 'Too Late' Jerome Powell for the jobs and inflation beats## Will the president's Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh be as tough?Published: Feb. 13, 2026 at 2:20 p.m. ETShareResizeAmerica wins because the Fed chairman refused to kowtow to the Oval Office. Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesThe big news from the economy this week is that [inflation is coming down], the [jobs market ...

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market is experiencing volatility with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) trading near 49,451.98, down approximately 1.34% on the day, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is at 6,832.76, down 1.57%, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) has fallen 2.03% to 22,597.15 [2][3] Economic Indicators - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a headline inflation increase of just 0.2%, below the consensus estimate of 0.3%, with a year-over-year CPI rise of 2.4%, the lowest since mid-2024 [3][8] Corporate Developments - Rivian Automotive (RIVN) shares surged over 20% after reporting a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and projecting vehicle delivery growth of 47% to 59% for the 2026 fiscal year [4] - Airbnb (ABNB) climbed over 5% due to quarterly revenue exceeding Wall Street expectations, driven by strong international demand [5] - Arista Networks (ANET) saw a 10% increase following a robust fourth-quarter report highlighting surging gross margins [5] - DraftKings (DKNG) plummeted more than 17% despite topping revenue and earnings estimates, as its full-year guidance fell significantly below analyst projections [6] - Major tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Google (GOOGL) are under pressure due to concerns over AI-driven labor substitution impacting corporate spending [6] Upcoming Events - U.S. markets will be closed on February 16th for Presidents' Day, with the focus shifting to the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index upon resumption of trading [7][8] - The upcoming PCE data is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with economists suggesting that the CPI reading may lead to considerations for interest rate cuts later this year [8]

Core Insights - The latest inflation data indicates a continued easing of price pressures, particularly in essential categories, providing consumers with some relief [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year over year in January, with a monthly increase of 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting a pattern of restrained inflation [2] - Essential costs, including housing, food, and bills, have historically consumed a significant portion of household income, particularly for consumers earning less than $50,000 annually [3] Inflation Trends - January's CPI report shows signs of stabilization in critical areas, with energy prices declining 1.5% for the month and 0.3% over the past year, which can positively impact household budgets [4] - Food prices increased modestly, with food and beverages rising 0.2% in January and 2.8% year over year, indicating a normalization after previous volatility [5] - Shelter costs remain elevated but show slower growth, with shelter prices rising 3% over the past year and 0.2% in January, suggesting easing housing-related pressures [9] Service Sector Inflation - Inflation in service-oriented categories remains elevated, with food away from home increasing 4% year over year and medical care services rising 3.9%, indicating persistent cost pressures in labor-intensive sectors [10][11] - Goods-related inflation has shown clearer deceleration, while services inflation continues to exert pressure, highlighting a nuanced inflation narrative [11] Consumer Financial Behavior - Consumers are increasingly utilizing flexible payment mechanisms to manage cash flow, with 31% using credit card installment plans and 14% using buy now, pay later (BNPL) products [12][13] - The adoption rates of installment structures are notably higher among millennials, with 42% of bridge millennials utilizing these mechanisms [13] - The use of installment plans is viewed as a budgeting tool rather than a sign of financial stress, allowing consumers to align payments with income cycles [14] Overall Outlook - January's inflation data and consumer finance trends suggest a gradual recalibration rather than acute disruption, with inflation persisting in shelter and services but moderating in essential categories [15] - Consumers are adapting their financial behaviors through spending prioritization and credit utilization, indicating a demand for flexibility and predictability in a still-elevated price environment [16]

Group 1 - The January inflation report showed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.2% month-over-month, which was below the expected 0.3% rise, and an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, also under forecasts, leading to a market rebound and optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate flexibility [2][8] - Energy prices, particularly a decline in gasoline prices, contributed significantly to the lower-than-expected inflation figures, offsetting increases in shelter and food costs, which is crucial for preventing a re-acceleration of overall inflation [5][8] - The combination of moderating inflation and strong employment figures may allow the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, as indicated by market reactions to the inflation data [6][8] Group 2 - The market's swift reaction to the inflation data reversed earlier losses, suggesting that investors view the report as a sign that inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve's target without harming economic growth [8] - Upcoming inflation indicators, including producer prices, will be closely monitored to confirm that the disinflation trend remains intact, following the January CPI release [8]

Heading into this week, I think if you had told investors that economic data would show the economy added 130,000 jobs in January, unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and the Consumer Price Index rose only 2.4% year over year, most would have been pretty pleased and bought the broader stock market. Yet, with just a few hours of trading left on Friday, the major stock indexes all find themselves in the red for the week. ^SPX Chart Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on t ...

Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The US economy's growth is highly concentrated, primarily among high-income consumers who are utilizing their wealth from a strong stock market [2][3] - Business investment is similarly concentrated, particularly in AI infrastructure, indicating a narrow focus in economic expansion [3] Inflation and Market Risks - There are concerns about inflation, with core CPI showing significant changes that may not reflect a broad problem but indicate underlying issues [5] - The market may be overly optimistic about inflation trends, as demand from AI buildout coincides with ongoing supply constraints [5][6] Tariffs and Globalization - Tariffs are impacting economic growth and may pose risks to consumer-facing companies, which have managed to mitigate some costs but anticipate future challenges [6][7] - The concentration of growth raises concerns about the sustainability of market confidence, as it relies on a limited consumer base and specific business investments [8][9] Retail Sector Insights - Retailers have managed inventory well, but inflation has skewed the perception of growth, with unit sales only increasing modestly while prices have risen significantly [10] - Companies like Pinterest have reported weaknesses attributed to tariff impacts, affecting their advertising budgets and overall performance [9]

Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows a month-over-month increase of +0.2%, down from +0.3% previously reported, marking the lowest increase since July [2] - Year-over-year headline CPI, or inflation rate, decreased by 30 basis points to +2.4%, the lowest since May of the previous year, and down 60 basis points from September [3] - Core CPI year-over-year is reported at +2.5%, down 10 basis points month-over-month, the lowest since March 2021 [3] Energy and Price Trends - Cheaper energy prices, particularly a -7.5% drop in gasoline prices, contributed significantly to the CPI metrics [4] - Used cars and trucks also saw a price decline of -2% [4] Company Earnings Reports - Wendy's (WEN) reported earnings of 16 cents per share, exceeding consensus estimates by 2 cents, but revenues of $542.97 million were down year-over-year, leading to a 4% drop in shares [6] - Advance Auto Parts (AAP) had a significant earnings surprise with 86 cents per share against estimates of 41 cents, and revenues of $1.97 billion, leading to a rise in shares [7] - Moderna (MRNA) reported a loss of -$2.11 per share, better than the expected -$2.60, with revenues of $678 million, which is down from $966 million year-over-year, but shares are up by +1.7% [8]

Cryptocurrencies bounced today after a softer-than-expected inflation report helped much of the market rise following a challenging week. The price of the meme token Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) traded over 5% higher, as of 11:57 a.m. ET today. Tame inflation report lifts the market All eyes were on the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this morning, which tracks price movements across a basket of consumer goods and services and is viewed as a key gauge of inflation. Will AI create the world's first t ...

U.S. stocks traded higher midway through trading, with the Dow Jones index gaining around 250 points on Friday.The Dow traded up 0.50% to 49,701.48 while the NASDAQ rose 0.41% to 22,690.60. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.61% to 6,874.47.Check This Out: How To Earn $500 A Month From Goldman Sachs Stock Ahead Of Q4 EarningsLeading and Lagging SectorsUtilities shares gained by 2% on Friday.In trading on Friday, financial stocks fell by 0.3%.Top HeadlinePrice pressures in the U.S. eased at the start of 2026, ...

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones index increasing by approximately 250 points, up 0.50% to 49,701.48, while the NASDAQ rose 0.41% to 22,690.60, and the S&P 500 gained 0.61% to 6,874.47 [1] - Utilities shares saw a notable increase of 2% on the same day, while financial stocks declined by 0.3% [1] Inflation Data - Price pressures in the U.S. showed signs of easing, with the annual consumer-price inflation rate decreasing from 2.7% in December to 2.4% in January, which was below economist expectations of 2.5% and marked the lowest inflation rate since May 2025 [2][6] - On a monthly basis, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, slightly below the previous reading and consensus estimates of 0.3% [2] Commodity Market - In commodity trading, oil prices fell by 0.2% to $62.73, while gold prices increased by 1.5% to $5,023.90. Silver prices rose by 2.5% to $77.605, whereas copper prices decreased by 0.5% to $5.7590 [3] European Market Trends - European shares mostly declined, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 falling by 0.24%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index dropping by 1.29%, and Germany's DAX decreasing by 0.43%. Conversely, London's FTSE 100 gained 0.22%, and France's CAC 40 dipped by 0.38% [4] Asian Market Trends - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei falling by 1.21%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declining by 1.72%, China's Shanghai Composite dipping by 1.26%, and India's BSE Sensex decreasing by 1.25% [5]