Economic Outlook - Russia's economy likely returned to growth last quarter [1] - The economy dodged a recession despite pressure from ultra-high interest rates [1]

Economic Outlook & Business Sentiment - Cullen Frost Bankers sees customer agility in managing costs and passing them along, but the primary concern related to tariffs is uncertainty about a potential recession [4][5] - Businesses are delaying projects, not canceling them, due to recessionary worries, but increased clarity in trade policy could lead to renewed activity in the next 6-12 months [6] - Cullen Frost Bankers' loan pipeline is good, but many projects are being delayed; a Fed rate cut could stimulate activity [9] - Customers are trying to avoid raising prices to maintain market share and volume, suggesting limited inflationary pressure [10] Cullen Frost Bankers Performance - Cullen Frost Bankers experienced strong consumer activity in Q2, with a 37% jump in consumer deposit growth and strength in real estate loan products [1] Energy Sector - The energy industry is healthy at mid $60s per barrel oil prices, but significant production increases are unlikely at that level [12] - The industry is focused on efficiency rather than increasing production into lower price levels [13] - There's a growing bullishness around natural gas due to demand from data centers and increasing LNG capacities [14][15]

Productivity Growth & Economic Outlook - Productivity surges tend to occur at the beginning of recoveries after recessions [2] - The fact that productivity has held up well during the rolling recession suggests a secular change in productivity growth [2] - The company anticipates productivity growth could reach 5% or more, sustained for a longer period [3] Technological Drivers - New technologies such as robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing are expected to drive significant productivity gains [3] Correlation of Economic Indicators - GDP growth and productivity growth are typically highly correlated on a year-over-year basis [1]

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Switzerland is likely to face a mild recession, should Donald Trump’s tariffs of 39% stick. Many hope negotiations will bring down the rate. And Switzerland’s flexible economy will be able to adjust https://t.co/t8RogNBNkj ...

- [Narrator] The US economy is facing a make or break moment. - And our country's becoming very rich. - [Narrator] Key economic data is painting a murky picture.Inflation has so far defied the worst of economists' expectations, and the US consumer remains strong, but pockets of weakness in the labor market and slower growth are raising red flags. - I think most economists expected this summer to really be that period where, you know, you begin to see the effects, and I think we're now like we're right at th ...

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Economic Uncertainty & Recession Risks - Uncertainty, stemming from policy, geopolitical factors, and President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, poses a significant threat to US economic growth [1][2] - Recession risks are higher than average, though not overwhelming, as the US consumer remains resilient [7][9] - Corporate investment is hindered by uncertainty, impacting medium to longer-term plans [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - It's difficult to argue for lower interest rates currently due to uncertainty about future inflation [11] - There are no overwhelming signs of weakening economic activity that would call for monetary policy stimulus [12] - The pass-through of tariffs into higher prices has been modest so far, but it's still early stages [11] Immigration & Demographics - Slower population growth due to immigration shocks negatively impacts medium-term potential output [8][9] - Aging populations and declining birth rates in the US and other advanced economies impact potential growth [14] - Immigration has historically contributed to trend growth in the US economy [8][14] Debt & Fiscal Policy - The US budget bill is estimated to add at least $3 trillion to the deficit over the next 9 to 10 years [15] - High debt levels and debt servicing costs are a concern, potentially hindering more productive investments [17][18] Globalization & Trade - Globalization has been off its peak since the global financial crisis [20] - While globalization has benefited consumers through cheaper products, it has also led to a hollowing out of various sectors in the US [20][22] - Increased global cooperation is preferred over a fragmented system [22] Global Debt Crisis - The unfolding debt crisis in low-income countries is something to watch, as it could amplify to emerging markets with bigger footprints [24][25]

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A 30% probability of a US recession might sound like a red flag, yet global stocks remain buoyant as betting against the market momentum “feels almost irrational,” according to a Goldman trader https://t.co/fsNTTGeLYX ...