Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The super typhoon "Hagupit" has not reported any casualties in Shenzhen, and the overall city operation remains stable despite the storm's impact [1]. Group 1: Typhoon Characteristics - "Hagupit" has a stronger intensity than the 2018 typhoon "Mangkhut," with a maximum wind speed of 62 meters per second (17th level) and a minimum central pressure of 910 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon globally this year [1]. - The wind radius of "Hagupit" is larger than that of "Mangkhut" at the 12th level, but the 10th level wind radius is smaller [1]. Group 2: Rainfall Data - Shenzhen recorded an average rainfall of 49.3 millimeters due to the typhoon, with the maximum cumulative rainfall reaching 137.9 millimeters in the Dapeng New District [1]. - The maximum hourly rainfall was 39.5 millimeters, also recorded in the Dapeng New District [1]. Group 3: Historical Context - "Mangkhut" caused significant damage in 2018, affecting nearly 3 million people across five provinces, resulting in 5 deaths and 1 missing person, with direct economic losses amounting to 5.2 billion yuan [2]. - In the Philippines, "Mangkhut" resulted in 120 deaths and approximately 43.19 billion pesos in economic losses [2].

每经编辑｜陈柯名 据央视新闻，受台风"桦加沙"影响，香港天文台24日凌晨2时40分发出十号飓风信号，即俗称的"十号风球"，这是香港最高级别的热带气旋警告信号。随 后，2时45分，香港天文台发布黄色暴雨警告信号。 此外，9月24日上午，香港东九龙顺利纪律部队宿舍楼下玻璃门也被狂风暴雨吹烂。 香港天文台提醒，"桦加沙"环流广阔，风势猛烈。预计香港今天天气持续恶劣，出现大风、骤雨及雷暴天气，岸边会出现越堤浪。市民应远离岸边及停止 所有水上活动。 一对母子被卷入海 昨天下午三点多，香港有一家三口怀疑在柴湾嘉业街货仓对出海边观浪期间，遭巨浪卷入海。 香港天文台表示，台风"桦加沙"24日早晨最接近香港，在香港南面100公里左右掠过，预计台风将对香港构成相当威胁。 北京时间24日8时，香港普遍出现暴风天气。在红磡码头，一艘工作船受海浪影响，撞向岸边，未造成人员受伤。 值得注意的是，9月24日凌晨，由于近海的原因，香港富丽敦海洋公园酒店玻璃门被海水冲烂，视频中可见，有人被海水冲走。 另据江门发布，江门进入十二级风圈！上川岛实况风力已达15级。 另据广东江阳发布：江阳市出现8~11级局部12级阵风，过去1小时（9月24日10时 ...

最新！ 十二级风圈 已覆盖江门台山、新会南部 上川岛实况风力已达15级 风雨正疯狂肆虐 据中央气象台最新发布的消息 24日8时 "桦加沙"强度依然维持在超强台风级 中心附近最大风力有16级（55米/秒） 处于广东省阳江市东偏南方向 约200公里的洋面上 预计其将以每小时20公里左右的速度 向偏西方向移动 将于24日下午到晚上 在江门台山到湛江一带沿海登陆 （台风级或强台风级， 13~15级，38~48米/秒） 登陆后强度逐渐减弱 目前 全市台风红色预警信号 正在生效中 台山暴雨橙色预警信号 蓬江、江海、新会、开平、鹤山、恩平 请广大市民密切关注 台风、暴雨、洪水、风暴潮预警 及交通管制等信息 做到人不出门，车不上路 如身处危险区域 请拨打110、119、120、12345等 紧急救援电话求救 "五停"期间 市民朋友们请留在家中 暴雨黄色预警信号 正在生效中 点蚊香、清积水 给蚊子来个全面消杀 将防风防 疫相结合 安全灭蚊 ，健康相伴 共同打赢基孔肯雅热疫情防控战！ 来源：江门发布综合自中央气象台、江门天气、江门日报全媒体 ...

9月24日，台风"桦加沙"逼近香港，市民拍下香港一沿海酒店大门玻璃被巨浪冲碎。视频显示，大量海 水瞬间涌入酒店大堂，有人被水流冲倒。香港天文台24日凌晨发出十号飓风信号及黄色暴雨警告信号。 9月24日11时许，记者从事发酒店获悉，目前酒店正常营业，顾客可正常办理入住及就餐。 ...

来源：央视新闻 台湾地区气象部门21日发布台风"桦加沙"海上陆上台风警报，22日暴风圈进入台湾台东、恒 春半岛与屏东地区，23日中午前脱离暴风圈，23日晚间解除海上台风警报。"桦加沙"外围环 流持续影响台湾东部、北部及南部沿海区域，带来强降雨。根据灾害应变中心23日晚间统计， 台湾撤离人数达7904人，其中花莲5349人、高雄市1866人，花莲主要集中在光复乡、凤林 镇与万荣乡，共有1837户、8524人受影响需安置或避难。 花莲县马太鞍溪堰塞湖23日下午溢堤，大量洪水冲断马太鞍溪桥，光复乡淹水灾情惨重。光复 乡、万荣乡及凤林镇等三乡镇共12个村里、约1800户居民于22日被强制疏散撤离。屏东山区 撤离145人，路段积水、边坡土石滑落等状况时有发生。 此外，"桦加沙"造成台湾14017户停电，待修复2015户，其中花莲县曾停电户数为2871户、 待修复1696户；台湾停水4378户。目前台湾积淹水计51处，未退水46处，集中于花莲县光 复乡、凤林镇。 台湾气象部门24日持续发布暴雨特报，花莲县地区、台东县地区有局部大暴雨或超大暴雨，高 雄市山区、屏东县山区有局部暴雨或大暴雨，宜兰县山区、南投县山区、屏东县地区 ...

据广东天气消息，9月24日07时，今年第18号台风"桦加沙"（超强台风级）的中心位于广东省阳江市东 偏南方向约210公里的南海北部海面上，中心附近最大风力16级，达到55米每秒的风速。 佛山市气象台今早最新消息，受"桦加沙"环流影响，9月23日晚到9月24日晨，佛山普遍出现8到9级阵 风，高地出现10级。9月24日，降雨主要集中在珠三角南部城市，早上9点左右暴雨开始覆盖佛山。目前 禅城、南海、顺德、高明台风红色预警信号，三水台风橙色预警信号，佛山五区暴雨黄色预警信号正在 生效。 （原标题：佛山部分高速公路实施交通管制，平胜大桥段主线等禁入） 南方财经记者获悉，为保障人民群众生命财产安全，佛山市人民政府防汛防旱防风指挥部决定从9月24 日6时起，对辖内部分高速公路主线和收费站入口实施交通管制，所有车辆禁止驶入，已在管制路段上 行驶的车辆尽快通过就近出口驶离高速。具体交通管制路段如下： 南方财经记者高慧超 佛山报道 1.佛开高速：龙山收费站； 2.广珠西高速：佛山段主线，三龙湾收费站 、碧江收费站、顺德收费站、容桂收费站； 3.广中江高速：均安收费站； 另需注意，以上措施将视台风预测预警情况作适时调整，需要广大市 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, oil prices moved higher. Geopolitical factors provided support at low levels, but there was a lack of continuous upward drivers, resulting in an overall oscillating price performance. The supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will pressure the market in the future, and short - term prices will oscillate. The increase in asphalt production may limit price increases, and prices will remain stable in the short term. Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Rubber prices will oscillate due to weather and demand factors. Methanol prices are at a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen. Polyolefins will show an oscillating and weakening pattern. PVC prices will oscillate weakly due to supply, demand, and inventory factors [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 11 - month contract rose $1.13 to $63.41/barrel, a 1.81% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose $1.06 to $67.63/barrel, a 1.59% increase; SC2511 closed at 482.3 yuan/barrel, up 7 yuan/barrel, a 1.47% increase. The resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan is stalled, and Russia may further restrict fuel exports. The 18th typhoon "Hagasa" affects offshore oil and gas platforms. Oil prices oscillate under geopolitical influence [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 fell 0.68% to 2759 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 fell 0.68% to 3350 yuan/ton. In August, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports decreased, and exports increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has short - term support, but future supply will pressure the market. Prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 fell 1.2% to 3373 yuan/ton. In October, domestic asphalt refinery production is expected to increase. The traditional consumption season brings stocking demand, but supply remains high, and prices will remain stable in the short term, with attention to actual demand [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4556 yuan/ton, down 0.65%; EG2601 closed at 4212 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. PX supply recovers, downstream TA maintenance increases in the fourth quarter, and terminal demand recovers slowly. Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2601 fell 90 yuan/ton to 15525 yuan/ton; NR fell 30 yuan/ton to 12395 yuan/ton; BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11430 yuan/ton. The 18th typhoon "Hagasa" affects the region. Production recovery is slow, downstream tire demand is stable, and exports weaken. Rubber prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the typhoon's impact on Hainan [5][7] - **Methanol**: The supply is at a phased low due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Xingxing device has resumed production, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing. Methanol prices are at a phased bottom, and the basis will strengthen, but short - term long - only operations are risky. A strategy of long methanol and short polyolefins can be considered [7] - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The supply - demand difference is narrowing, and prices will show an oscillating and weakening pattern [9] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Domestic PVC market prices are adjusted downward. Real estate construction has stabilized but is still weak year - on - year. Supply remains high, demand recovers slowly, and exports are affected by anti - dumping policies. Total inventory pressure is large, and prices will oscillate weakly [9] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 24, 2025, including spot market, spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10] 3. Market News - The resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan is stalled due to debt repayment issues. Russia may further restrict fuel exports, and gasoline shortages in some areas are caused by attacks on refineries and high borrowing costs [12] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical data from 2021 to 2025 [30][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [75][76][77] 6. Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]

记者从深圳市三防指挥部了解到，超强台风"桦加沙"正影响我市， 24日凌晨至上午是风雨最强时 段，倒伏树木、高空坠物易造成人员伤亡，请广大市民居家避险，非必要不外出！ 据中央气象台最新消息，今年第18号台风"桦加沙"（超强台风级）中心23日22时位于深圳东南方242 公里的南海海面上，中心附近最大风力16级（55米/秒），中心最低气压930百帕，七级风圈半径320 —380公里，十级风圈半径150公里，十二级风圈半径90公里。 预计"桦加沙"将向西偏北方向移动，移速维持在20公里左右，强度减弱不明显，大概率于24日凌晨至上 午以超强台风级在深圳南侧约 140 公里近海掠过，趋向台山到电白沿海一带。深圳市气象台已于9月23 日18时将全市台风橙色预警信号升级为红色。 气象专家介绍，经综合研判，"桦加沙"综合影响同"山竹"接近或相当，将带来严重风雨浪潮复合灾害。 24日凌晨至上午是风雨最强时段，24日04时到上午将出现过程最大风力，下午起风力逐渐减弱。 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 深夜！中概股大跌！美联储，大消息！ 丨 15连板！6052 ...

来源：央视新闻微信公众号中央气象台、中国天气网 今年第18号台风"桦加沙"自生成后快速增强，9月21日8时变身超强台风，20时左右中心风力达到17级以上，成为今年来"全球风王"。 中央气象台今天（23日）10时继续发布台风橙色预警，预计"桦加沙"将以每小时20—25公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，将于24日中午到晚上在广东珠海到 湛江一带沿海登陆（台风级或强台风级，13—15级，40—48米/秒），登陆后转向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。受其影响，未来三天，南海及华南等地 将自东向西出现强风雨天气。 "桦加沙"移速快、强度强，是今年以来影响我国的最强台风，将给南海北部和华南、江南南部等地带来强风雨，沿海地区强风具有极端性，致灾风险极 高。另外，"桦加沙"影响期间正值天文大潮，广东的广州、珠海、中山等地可能出现海水倒灌，公众需警惕风暴潮灾害。 国家海洋预报台23日早上将风暴潮、海浪预警级别双双升级为红色。风暴潮方面，预计今天上午至明天上午，广东潮州到惠州沿海将出现90到150厘米的 风暴增水，广东深圳到江门沿海将出现120到250厘米的风暴增水。广东省中山市、珠海市、深圳市、东莞市等地明天中午沿海低洼地区的海水倒灌风 ...

来源： 央视新闻微信公众 号中央气象台、中国天气网 今年第18号 台风"桦加沙"自生成后快速增强，9月21日8时变身超强台风，20时左右中心风力达到 17级以上，成为今年来"全球风王"。 中央气象台今天（23日）10时继续发布 台风橙色预警 ， 预计"桦加沙"将以每小时20—25公里的速度向 西偏北方向移动，将于24日中午到晚上在广东珠海到湛江一带沿海登陆 （台风级或强台风级，13—15 级，40—48米/秒），登陆后转向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。 受其影响，未来三天，南海及华南等 地将自东向西出现强风雨天气。 "桦加沙"移速快、强度强，是今年以来影响我国的最强台风，将给南海北部和华南、江南南部等地带来 强风雨， 沿海地区强风具有极端性，致灾风险极高。 另外，"桦加沙"影响期间正值天文大潮，广东的 广州、珠海、中山等地可能出现海水倒灌，公众需警惕风暴潮灾害。 国家海洋预报台23日早上将 风暴潮、海浪预警级别双双升级为红色 。 风暴潮方面，预计今天上午至明 天上午，广东潮州到惠州沿海将出现90到150厘米的风暴增水，广东深圳到江门沿海将出现120到250厘 米的风暴增水。 广东省中山市、珠海市、深圳市、东莞市 ...