Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed more than expected in June, driven by a decline in imports, indicating a decrease in the previous phenomenon of stockpiling imports due to tariff expectations [1] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods decreased by 10.8% in June, falling to $86 billion, which was below the predictions of all economists surveyed [1] - U.S. imports fell by 4.2% to $264.2 billion in June, with consumer goods imports reaching their lowest level since September 2020, and industrial goods imports at their lowest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The latest trade data has led some economists to raise their GDP forecasts for the U.S. in the second quarter, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model increasing its estimate to 2.9%, attributing over 4 percentage points of contribution from net exports [1] - Retail inventories rose by 0.3% in June, the largest increase since September of the previous year, primarily due to a surge in auto dealer inventories [2] - U.S. manufacturers continue to face uncertainty due to the changing tariff policies under Trump, with potential risks of significant tax increases if agreements are not reached before the deadline [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed more than expected in June, reflecting a general decline in imports [1] - The trade deficit decreased by 10.8% from the previous month to $86 billion, which was below the expected $98 billion [1] - U.S. goods imports fell by 4.2% to $264.2 billion, while exports decreased by 0.6% [1] - This data will assist economists in adjusting their estimates for the net export contribution to GDP in the second quarter, with related data to be released on Wednesday [1] - The trade distortions that negatively impacted GDP earlier in the year are expected to reverse in the most recent quarter [1]

Summary of Economic Implications of Possible Tariff Scenarios Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the implications of proposed tariff increases in the United States, particularly under the Trump administration's trade policies, which have raised the effective tariff rate (ETR) significantly. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Increases and Proposals - The US's effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 9 percentage points (pp) so far, with proposals for higher "reciprocal" tariffs on several countries, including a 50% sectoral tariff on copper and a potential rise in baseline tariff rates to 15-20% [2][5][6]. - The expectation is for the ETR to rise by around 14pp by the end of the current year, with further increases anticipated in 2026 and 2027, leading to a total increase of 17pp by 2027 [2][6]. Inflation and Consumer Prices - The proposed tariffs are estimated to boost core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by about 1.7% cumulatively over the next 2-3 years, with revised expectations for year-over-year core PCE inflation of 3.3% in December 2025, 2.7% in 2026, and 2.4% in 2027 [2][21]. - The passthrough rate of higher costs into consumer prices is now expected to be around 65%, down from 70% previously, indicating a slower adjustment to increased import costs [10][11]. Economic Growth Impact - The tariffs are projected to lower year-over-year GDP growth by approximately 1pp in 2025, 0.4pp in 2026, and 0.3pp in 2027, reflecting a tax-like effect on real spending across the economy [2][36]. - A cumulative GDP hit from the tariff scenarios is estimated at around 2%, with the most extreme scenario suggesting a 3.3% cumulative GDP hit, translating to a 1.7pp increase in the unemployment rate by 2027 [3][52]. Alternative Scenarios - Four alternative tariff scenarios were explored, ranging from a downside scenario with lower tariffs to an upside scenario with significantly higher tariffs, indicating a weighted-average ETR increase of 16pp in 2025 [39][41]. - The downside scenario could result in a 1.4% boost to core PCE, while the upside scenario could lead to a nearly 3% increase by the end of 2027 [44]. Uncertainty and Business Investment - Heightened uncertainty from tariff changes is expected to dampen business investment, although recent measures of policy uncertainty have decreased, suggesting a smaller drag on growth than previously anticipated [27][36]. - The analysis indicates that financial conditions have loosened despite tariff increases, which may mitigate some negative impacts on capital expenditures [32][36]. Conclusion - The overall outlook suggests lower growth and higher inflation in 2026 and 2027 compared to previous forecasts, with risks tilted towards higher tariffs and inflation, and downside risks to growth through 2027 [57]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may adopt a wait-and-see approach to policy in light of potential tariff increases, with aggressive rate cuts becoming necessary if extreme tariff scenarios materialize [57].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of China's GDP accounting methods and preliminary results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, highlighting the importance of GDP as a key economic indicator and the methodologies used for its calculation [1][5]. Summary by Sections 1. GDP Accounting Overview - GDP is defined as the final result of production activities of all resident units in a country during a specific period, serving as a core indicator of national economic performance [5]. - There are three methods for GDP accounting: production method, income method, and expenditure method, each reflecting different aspects of economic activity [5]. 2. Accounting Scope - The production scope includes goods and services produced for other units, self-consumed goods, knowledge products for self-consumption, and housing services [6]. - The accounting subjects include all resident units within China's economic territory, excluding data from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [7]. 3. Accounting Frequency and Legal Basis - GDP is calculated quarterly, with a shift from cumulative to separate quarterly calculations starting from Q3 2015 [7][8]. - The accounting adheres to the Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China and follows the National Economic Accounting System [8]. 4. GDP Calculation Methods - The article details the classification system for GDP accounting, including the national economic industry classification and the three-sector classification [10]. - Various data sources are utilized for GDP calculation, including national statistical surveys and administrative records [11]. 5. Data Revision and Quality Assessment - The necessity for data revision is emphasized due to the preliminary nature of quarterly GDP estimates, which are later refined with more complete data [14]. - The quality of the underlying data and the methods used for GDP calculation are regularly evaluated to ensure accuracy and reliability [16][17]. 6. Data Publication - Preliminary GDP figures are typically released about 15 days after the end of the quarter, while final verified figures are published in January of the following year [19].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the GDP for the second quarter of this year reached 34,177.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] Industry Breakdown - The primary industry added value was 19,459 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - The secondary industry added value was 127,147 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 195,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1]

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The GDP growth for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a growth of 5.2% [1] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the second quarter was 1.1% [1] Sector Performance - Agricultural value added grew by 3.7%, with a total summer grain output of 149.74 million tons [1] - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.8 and 3.1 percentage points [1] - The service sector's value added rose by 5.5%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] Investment and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24,545.8 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 24,865.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%; excluding real estate development investment, the growth was 6.6% [1] Trade and Employment - The total import and export value of goods was 21,787.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - The share of private enterprises in total imports and exports rose to 57.3%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The average urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [2] Consumer Prices and Income - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4%, expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The per capita disposable income of residents was 21,840 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.3%, and a real growth of 5.4% after adjusting for price factors [2] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, contributing to a stable and improving economic performance [2] - There is a need to strengthen domestic demand and ensure sustainable economic recovery amidst external uncertainties [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of Thailand officials expect the GDP growth rate to slow down to 1.7% year-on-year in the second half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand officials anticipate that the country's GDP growth rate will slow to 1.7% year-on-year in the second half of the year [1] Economic Outlook - The expected GDP growth rate of 1.7% indicates a deceleration compared to previous periods, reflecting potential challenges in the domestic economy [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese Cabinet Office reported a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in the first quarter GDP [1] - The nominal GDP for the first quarter showed a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.9% [1]

Economic Growth - Australia's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of quarter-on-quarter growth [1] - The quarter-on-quarter growth rate has decreased from 0.6% in Q4 2024 [1] Per Capita GDP - Per capita GDP in Australia fell by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, following a 0.1% increase in Q4 2024 after seven consecutive quarters of decline [1] Government and Private Sector Spending - Government spending remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter, while household consumption increased by 0.4% [2] - Private sector investment grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by residential, new building, and new engineering construction [2] - Public sector investment decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter [2] Trade and Exports - Exports of goods and services decreased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter due to adverse weather affecting coal and LNG production and shipping, as well as a lower-than-average increase in international student numbers impacting tourism service exports [2] - Overall imports also fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter due to a decrease in capital goods imports and Australians opting for closer, cheaper travel destinations [2] Household Savings and Income - Household savings rate increased to 5.2% in Q1 2025, up from 3.9% in Q4 2024 [2] - Total disposable income for households grew by 2.4%, outpacing the nominal increase in household spending by 1% [2]