Economic Data Review - The U.S. January core PCE year-on-year increased to the highest level since March 2024, rising by 3.1%[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March hit a three-month low at 55.5, down from 56.6 in February[10] - The JOLTS job openings in January surged by 396,000 to 6.946 million, exceeding expectations of 6.75 million[10] Employment Trends - The ADP weekly employment report showed a stable increase of 62,000 jobs over the past four weeks, unchanged from the previous week[26] - Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, down from 214,000 the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market[30] - The INDEED job vacancy index decreased to a weekly average of 104.5, slightly up from the previous week[34] Price Movements - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose to 365.79, increasing by 3.9% week-on-week and 17.0% over the past two weeks[36] - U.S. gasoline retail prices increased to $3.36 per gallon, up 16.6% from the previous week and 20.3% from two weeks ago[36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the U.S. dropping to 0.133 from 0.150 a week prior[40] - The offshore dollar liquidity showed a recovery in the yen against the dollar, while the euro against the dollar deteriorated[43] - The 10-year U.S.-Eurozone bond yield spread widened to 127.2 basis points, up from 124.1 basis points the previous week[45]

Investment Chain - Non-ferrous metal prices have risen since February 2026, with fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 declining to -3.80%[1] - Real estate development investment in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 17.20%[1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 decreased to 0.60%[1] - Infrastructure investment growth in December 2025 fell to -1.48%[1] Consumption Chain - In December 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of social consumption fell to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70%[2] - The consumer confidence index in December 2025 dropped to 89.50[2] - In January 2026, automobile sales saw a year-on-year growth rate increase to -3.18%[2] - Home appliance retail sales in December 2025 experienced a year-on-year decline of 14.25%[2] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN saw a year-on-year growth increase, while exports to the US and EU declined[3] - The export growth rate for electronic products in December 2025 rose to 37.25%[3] - Textile export value in December 2025 decreased by 4.23% year-on-year[3] - Mechanical export value in December 2025 increased by 6.60% year-on-year[3] Price Chain - As of February 2026, the price of pork decreased to 12.75 yuan/kg[4] - WTI crude oil price increased to $65.63 per barrel on February 24, 2026[4] - PVC spot price rose to 4770 yuan/ton on February 24, 2026[4] - The average price of coal in Qinhuangdao increased in February 2026[4]

Market Performance - US stock market closed with Dow Jones slightly up, S&P 500 down by 0.5%, and Nasdaq Composite down by 1.18% [1] - Nvidia shares fell by 5.5% post-earnings, while AMD and Intel dropped by 3% [1] - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 1.78%, with Alibaba down by 2.7% and Baidu down by 5.6% [1] - Dell's stock rose by 12% in after-hours trading, and Netflix surged nearly 8% [1] Economic Developments - Significant progress in US-Iran negotiations, with plans for technical discussions in Vienna next week [1] - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated that interest rates could be lowered, but not before inflation eases [1] - US 30-year mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time since 2022 [1] Geopolitical Events - Six US aerial refueling aircraft are en route to Israel to join military deployments in the region [1] - US-Ukrainian talks in Geneva concluded without specific outcomes [1] - Saudi Aramco canceled liquefied petroleum gas shipments from Juaymah terminal for February and March due to structural damage [1] Industry News - Meta's internal chip design efforts are reportedly facing obstacles [1] - Spot gold prices fell below $5200 per ounce, influenced by US-Iran negotiation progress affecting oil prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's new import tariff increase and policy uncertainty boost the demand for precious metals as a hedge, which is conducive to the rise of precious metal futures prices [5][7] - If the US consumer confidence index in February is lower than the previous value, it will suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices, but help the rise of precious metal futures prices [8] - If the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21 are slightly higher than the previous value, it will suppress the rise of commodity futures prices except for precious metals, but help the rise of precious metal futures prices [15] 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Key Focus - On February 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China will announce the LPR, with the 1 - year LPR expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR expected to be 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values [2][3] - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods into the US starting from February 24, for 150 days, and later planned to raise it to 15% [2][5] - On February 25, the People's Bank of China will renew the MLF, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on that day [10] - On February 27, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the US January PPI [2][16] - On February 28, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin [2][19] This Week's Hotspot Preview February 24 - The People's Bank of China will announce the February LPR, with expected values unchanged from the previous ones [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - February [4] - Trump's new import tariff increase and subsequent plan to raise it to 15% will increase the demand for precious metals as a hedge [5][7] - The US Conference Board will announce the February consumer confidence index, with an expected value of 83, lower than the previous value of 84.5 [8] - Trump will deliver the State of the Union address [9] February 25 - The People's Bank of China will renew the MLF, and the specific operation amount will be determined according to market demand [10] - The German Statistics Office will announce the revised GDP of the fourth quarter of 2025, with expected quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year growth rates [11] - The EU Statistics Office will announce the final value of the eurozone's January CPI, with expected year - on - year rates [12] - The EIA will announce the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20. A continued decline will help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [13] February 26 - The EU Statistics Office will announce the eurozone's February economic and industrial景气指数, with expected values [14] - The US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21, with an expected value of 216,000, higher than the previous value [15] February 27 - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the US January PPI, with expected year - on - year and month - on - month rates [16] - The Chicago branch of the Institute for Supply Management will announce the US February Chicago PMI, with an expected value of 52.5, lower than the previous value [18] February 28 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, and attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [19] March 1 - OPEC+ eight oil - producing countries will hold a monthly meeting on oil - production policies, and the decision on whether to resume production increase from April will affect crude oil and related futures prices [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the consumer confidence index in South Korea rose to its highest level since November, supported by strong semiconductor shipments and an active domestic stock market [1] - The Bank of Korea reported that the composite consumer confidence index increased to 112.1 in February, marking the highest level since November of the previous year and significantly above the neutral threshold of 100 [1]

Group 1 - The State Council's Safety Committee reported two significant firework explosion accidents and emphasized the need for comprehensive safety regulation in the firework industry, particularly during the Spring Festival [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission noted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, over 40% of resource-based cities saw the mining industry's total output value drop to 6.2% of industrial output value, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The China National Railway Group announced that as of February 20, 8 AM, a total of 298 million train tickets were sold for the Spring Festival travel period [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs, significantly impacting Trump's tariff policy and alleviating market concerns [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the economic growth rate for Q4 2025 was 1.4%, significantly below the market expectation of 2.8%, with the overall economic growth rate for 2025 at 2.2%, lower than 2024's 2.8% [2] - The Michigan University consumer confidence index for February was reported at 56.6, slightly down from the initial value but higher than the previous month's 56.4, indicating consumer sentiment trends [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market indices rose on February 20, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 230.81 points to close at 49,625.97, a gain of 0.47% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 47.62 points to close at 6,909.51, reflecting a 0.69% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 203.34 points, closing at 22,886.07, a rise of 0.90% [1] - The S&P 500 saw nine sectors increase, with the communication services and consumer discretionary sectors leading gains at 2.65% and 1.27%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs, alleviating market concerns regarding tariff policies [1] - President Trump announced plans to sign an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on imported goods globally, replacing previously invalidated emergency tariffs [1] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a preliminary economic growth rate of 1.4% for Q4 2025, significantly below market expectations, with the overall growth rate for 2025 at 2.2%, the lowest since 2021 [2] - The personal consumption expenditures price index for December 2025 rose by 0.4% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, indicating inflationary pressures [2] Group 4 - The S&P Global reported a composite PMI output index of 52.3 for February, down from 53 in January, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [3] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was reported at 56.6, slightly down from the initial estimate but higher than the previous month's 56.4 [3]

Group 1 - The final consumer confidence index for February from the University of Michigan in the U.S. is reported at 56.6, which is below the expected value of 57.3 and unchanged from the previous value of 57.3 [1]

Group 1 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for the Eurozone in February is -12.2, which is lower than the expected -11.8 but slightly improved from the previous value of -12.4 [1]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 13 will be published [2] - Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January will be reported [3] - Switzerland's trade balance for January will be released [4] - Eurozone's seasonally adjusted current account for December will be announced [5] - The CBI industrial order balance for the UK in February will be reported [6] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 14 will be released [7] - The US trade balance for December will be published [8] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February will be reported [9] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari will give a speech [10] - The preliminary consumer confidence index for the Eurozone in February will be announced [11] - The month-on-month change in the US pending home sales index for January will be reported [12] - EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending February 13 will be released [13] - EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 13 will be published [14] - EIA Cushing crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 13 will be reported [15] - EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory data for the week ending February 13 will be released [16]