Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with high开工 rates, new capacity coming online, high daily production, and rapid inventory accumulation. Industrial demand, especially for compound fertilizers, is weakening, and agricultural demand is also in a downturn. Although there are some bullish factors such as the basis, the short - term trend of the urea main contract is expected to be volatile [4]. - The main bullish factor is the expectation of export policy, while the main bearish factors include high daily production, inventory accumulation, and weakening demand. The main logic is the high supply and marginal changes in demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Before the holiday, the urea futures market rebounded significantly due to news. Supply side has high开工 rates and new capacity, with expected high daily production. Inventory decreased from a high level and then rapidly accumulated again. Industrial demand, especially for compound fertilizers, weakened, and agricultural demand also declined. The export policy has no definite news of liberalization. The spot price of the delivery product is 1900 (unchanged), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 14, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net long positions of the UR main contract increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term rebound of the urea main contract, high daily production, inventory accumulation again, declining compound fertilizer开工, and weakening agricultural demand are expected to result in a volatile trend for UR today [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1900, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1900, unchanged; Henan spot price is 1900, unchanged; FOB China price is 1882 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract is 1886 (+5); UR01 price is 1781 (-14); UR05 price is 1912 (-4) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry's capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with different growth rates in each year. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, but the UR2509 contract basis, the position of the close price relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main contract are bullish factors. The short - term trend of the urea main contract is expected to be volatile due to high daily production, restocking of inventory, declining compound fertilizer production, and weak agricultural demand [4]. - The bullish factor is the expectation of export policy, while the bearish factors include high daily production, restocking of inventory, and weakening demand. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal change in demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Before the holiday, the urea futures market rebounded significantly due to news. The supply side has a high operating rate and new production capacity coming online, with expected high daily production. Inventory decreased from a high level and then quickly restocked. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand dropped significantly, compound fertilizer inventory increased, some compound fertilizer enterprises resold urea raw materials, the operating rate of melamine was neutral, and agricultural demand weakened. There is still no definite news on the liberalization of urea export policies. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1900 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 19, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is long, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term trend of the urea main contract is a rebound. With high daily production, restocking of inventory, declining compound fertilizer production, and weakening agricultural demand, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the deliverable product is 1900 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1900 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1900 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 1882 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR09 contract is 1881 (+24), the UR01 contract is 1795 (+17), and the UR05 contract is 1916 (+47). The basis of the UR2509 contract is 19 (-14) [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.192 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 118,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, the production was 3425, the net import was 360, and the apparent consumption was 3785 [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：节前尿素盘面受消息面影响大幅反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投 产，日产预计将维持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显 回落，复合肥库存累库，有复合肥企业转售尿素原料，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入弱势。 尿素出口政策目前仍未有确切放开消息。交割品现货1850（+50），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差-7，升贴水比例-0.4%，中性； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.2万吨（+0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • ...