交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 2、日产继续新高 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 存 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1670 | 0 | 05合约 | 1673 | - 8 | 仓 单 | 11214 | -31 | | 山东现货 | 1700 | 0 | 基 差 | - 3 | 8 | UR综合库存 | 135 7 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1670 | 0 | UR01 | 1630 | 1 | UR厂家库存 | 123 4 . | 0 0 . | | FOB中国 | 2729 | | UR05 | 1673 | - 8 | UR港口库存 | 12 3 . | 0 0 . | | ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 尿素：震荡运行，日内关注库存指标 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | | | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,643 | 1,646 | - 3 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,644 | 1,651 | - 7 | | 尿素主力 | | 成交量 （手） | 140,314 | 216,711 | -76397 | | 期货市场 | （01合约） | 持仓量 （手） | 150,646 | 167,074 | -16428 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 11,477 | 11,526 | -49 | | | | 成交额 （万元） | 461,365 | 715,690 | -254325 | | | | 山东地区基差 | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The view on urea this week is a fluctuating decline. In the short term, the driving force is neutral. The futures price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, with support mainly coming from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous destocking of explicit inventory supports the price. In terms of valuation, the spot trading slowed down from Thursday to Sunday, and there may be policy pressure. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. - For trading strategies, the price is expected to decline weakly as it approaches the upper limit of valuation with weakening trading volume. The 1 - 5 month spread is gradually entering a fluctuating pattern, and it is recommended to take a long position in the 5 - 9 spread when the price is low after the premium of the 05 contract is compressed. There is no cross - variety strategy for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640,000 tons. There are also plans for new production capacity in 2026 [23]. - **Production**: This week (20251127 - 1203), the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.37 million tons, a slight decrease from this period. The production profit is at the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [2][26]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The cash - flow cost and full cost of synthetic ammonia and urea in fixed - bed factories in Shanxi have been calculated, and the cash - flow cost of urea production using the gas - flow bed method has also been presented [29]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state [34]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The export volume of urea in 2025 shows an increasing trend, and the export profit of small - particle urea is also presented [40]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The demand for agricultural fertilizers varies by region and season [46][49]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers are presented through indicators such as production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [53][54][55]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in Shandong are shown [57][59]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, as shown by data on panel export volume, real estate completion area, and construction area [61]. Inventory - Factory inventory: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased [2][67]. - Port inventory: As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5%. The current port collection rhythm is still slow [2][67]. International Urea - International urea prices are presented through the FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [71][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental driver of urea is currently neutral, and the short - term futures price is gradually entering a shock pattern. The subsequent upward movement of the driver depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The basic face supports the price due to the continuous reduction of explicit inventory, and the valuation range has shifted upward in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,694 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the trading volume was 155,992 lots, an increase of 35,372 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 209,271 lots, a decrease of 282 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,353 tons, an increase of 1,588 tons; the trading volume was 5.28492 billion yuan, an increase of 1.20684 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 22 yuan, an increase of 34 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the disk was - 138 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the disk was 12 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan; the spread between UR01 - UR05 was - 57 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while the price of Hebei Dongguang increased by 10 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 30 yuan to 1,710 yuan/ton and 1,570 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 79.60%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points, and the daily output was 192,480 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons [1] 3.2 Industry News - On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, mainly due to the continuous restocking of reserve demand, the recovery of compound fertilizer industrial demand, and the promotion of some export demands. The inventory decreased in 13 provinces and increased in 6 provinces [2] - The demand side, with the combination of reserve and export, has led to a phased improvement in the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral. Whether the driver can turn upward depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. Currently, the fundamentals driver of urea is considered neutral, and the explicit inventory has continuously decreased, supporting the price. In terms of valuation, the short - term valuation range has shifted upward. The short - term static valuation pressure on the futures is at 1,700 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1,700 yuan/ton. The lower support for the 01 contract is expected to be at 1,580 - 1,600 yuan/ton [2][3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand is weak in the short term, and the industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply - side pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are rising, inventory is falling. Agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand is moderately weak. New production capacities increase supply - side pressure. Export improvement boosts market sentiment. Overall, the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.3%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons), a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, considering the weak industrial and agricultural demand and the improved export situation [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The positive factor is the improvement in exports; the negative factors are domestic oversupply and new production capacity commissioning. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | |----|----| | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1600 (unchanged); Shandong spot is 1600 (unchanged); Henan spot is 1610 (unchanged); FOB China is 2732 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 01 contract is 1652 (- 6); the basis is - 52 (+ 6); UR05 is 1727 (- 4); UR09 is 1748 (- 6) [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 7183 (+ 225); UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.484 million tons (- 94,000 tons); UR port inventory is 82,000 tons (+ 3,000 tons) [6]. | 3. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The ex - factory prices of urea in mainstream areas are falling, and the trading volume is weak. The supply has recovered, and the ex - factory prices are expected to continue the downward trend [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. The autumn fertilizer season in North China has ended, and the downstream grass - roots orders are scarce. The domestic demand is still limited in the short term, and the spot market sentiment remains sluggish [5]. - The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international market will have a greater impact on the domestic market, but the domestic autumn fertilizer is fully over, and the overall domestic demand is about to enter a "vacuum period" [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Strategy - For unilateral trading, go short at high levels; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, stay on the sidelines [5]. 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.53%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% [6]. - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 87.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81% [6]. Demand - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points [6]. - As of November 14, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,300 tons, an increase of 280 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 27.45% [6]. - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 106,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - As of November 12, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period [6]. Inventory - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week [6]. - The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 82,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8% [6]. Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal has declined slightly. The fixed - bed production of urea has a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production has a loss of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 168 yuan/ton. The futures are fluctuating, the basis is - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 67 yuan/ton [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cost support and the recovery of agricultural demand drive a short - term rebound, but high inventory and supply surplus suppress the upside space. The fundamentals of urea maintain a pattern of oscillatingly strong but with limited height [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - Raw material thermal coal prices continue to rise, raising the urea cost line. Some gas - based enterprises are under maintenance due to losses, increasing the expectation of supply - side contraction [4] - The improvement in weather promotes wheat sowing, increasing the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing. The compound fertilizer operating rate increases by 3.53% month - on - month, with short - term demand improvement [4] - Enterprise inventory reaches 1.6154 million tons, a record high. Rainfall in the north slows down shipments, and the pressure of inventory accumulation remains unsolved [4] - Daily production remains at a high level of 196,200 tons. Previously maintained devices are gradually resuming production, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different contract months, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and gross profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, thermal coal spot prices, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][40][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the spot price at 1740 (+10). The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%. The overall inventory is at a high level, with the UR comprehensive inventory at 152.5 million tons (+10.4). The main contract's 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net long but reducing long positions. International urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. - The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high production rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer industry's operating rate is at a medium level, the melamine industry's operating rate has significantly declined, and agricultural demand is weak. China's overall urea supply exceeds demand, and although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 152.5 million tons (+10.4), indicating a bearish situation [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of UR is net long, but the long positions are being reduced, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to be volatile. With strong international urea prices and no more liberal export policies than expected, and a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance, the UR contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown an overall upward trend. The import dependence on PP has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state where the overall supply in China exceeds demand significantly. The futures price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, while international urea prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be volatile [4]. - The positive factor is the strong international price, while the negative factors are the high production and daily output and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand significantly, and the theoretical export profit has continued to reach new highs, but the export volume has decreased due to policies and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (-10), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 59, with a premium or discount ratio of 3.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1720 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1730 (0), and the FOB China price is 3273 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1661 (-9), the basis is 59 (-1), the price of the UR05 contract is 1722 (-3), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1744 (-1) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7810 (-378), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.371 million tons, the UR manufacturer's inventory is 888,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 483,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in capacity, production, and apparent consumption. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied. For example, in 2019, the capacity was 24.455 million tons with a growth rate of 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9].