交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 存 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1860 | 0 | 05合约 | 1822 | 3 | 仓 单 | 1275 | -4683 | | 山东现货 | 1880 | -10 | 基 差 | 3 8 | - 3 | UR综合库存 | 135 0 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1860 | 0 | UR01 | 1788 | 4 | UR厂家库存 | 117 6 . | 0 0 . | | FOB中国 | 3327 | | UR05 | 1822 | 3 | UR港口库存 . | 17 4 | 0 0 . | | | | | UR09 | 1812 | 7 | | | | 尿素早报 2026-3-5 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level year-on-year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is declining, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still good, the agricultural reserve demand is strong, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the industrial sector is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (-0.5), which is bullish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is also bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year-on-year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is declining, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still good, the agricultural reserve demand is strong, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the industrial sector is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (-0.5), which is bullish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year-on-year. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream reserve demand is fair, and the inventory is decreasing [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Bullish Factors**: Inventory de-stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1800 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1797 | 12 | Warehouse Receipt | 10949 | -87 | | Shandong Spot | 1800 | 0 | Basis | 3 | -12 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 108.4 | -0.5 | | Henan Spot | 1800 | 0 | UR01 | 1748 | 13 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 91.9 | 0 | | FOB China | 3059 | | UR05 | 1797 | 12 | UR Port Inventory | 16.5 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1756 | 13 | | | | [6] Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market opened low and moved lower today, with the spot price rising as some factories completed holiday orders and held prices, while others actively attracted orders. The fundamentals show that gas - based plants have basically resumed production, and production will be normal during the Spring Festival. The agricultural demand is fair, and the industrial demand is weakening marginally. The supply - demand balance supports the urea market. The impact of the Indian tender on the domestic market is small, and before the Spring Festival, the trading volume will be low with limited price fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved down today, and the spot price increased. The gas - based plants have mostly resumed production and have no long - term shutdown plan in the short term. Agricultural demand is okay, and the wheat top - dressing season is coming after the Spring Festival. Industrial demand is weakening, and the inventory of factories has been slightly digested. The supply - demand balance supports the market. The impact of the Indian tender on the domestic market is limited, and price fluctuations are expected to be small before the Spring Festival [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1788 yuan/ton, closed at 1785 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.61% and a position of 218,805 lots (- 6887 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 5480 lots and short positions decreased by 2892 lots. For example, Orient Futures had a net long - position decrease of 4114 lots and CICC Wealth had a net long - position decrease of 1075 lots; Galaxy Futures had a net short - position decrease of 285 lots and Ruida Futures had a net short - position decrease of 1235 lots. On February 10, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11036, a net increase of 176 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - Some factories completed holiday orders and held prices, while others actively attracted orders, leading to an overall increase in the spot price. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot price and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was 2 yuan/ton (+ 18 yuan/ton) [7] Supply - According to Feiyitong data, on February 10, 2026, the national daily urea production was 215,600 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 86.41% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period last year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory has declined, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, the order demand is still acceptable, and the agricultural reserve demand is good. In the industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, while the operating rate of melamine has declined. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1084 thousand tons (-0.5), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The net position of the main UR contract holders is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. Comprehensive inventory is falling, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Near the Spring Festival, order demand is okay, agricultural reserve demand is good. In industrial demand, compound fertilizer demand is stable, and melamine operating rate has declined. There is a large export price difference, but the domestic market is still oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1084 thousand tons (-0.5), which is bullish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract holders is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year - on - year. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream reserve demand is acceptable, and the inventory is being depleted [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Bullish Factors**: Inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic market oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1790, with a change of +30; the price of Shandong spot is 1790, with a change of +10; the price of Henan spot is 1790, unchanged; and the FOB China price is 3063 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 05 contract is 1788, with a change of +12; the basis is 2, with a change of +18; the price of UR01 is 1744, with a change of +12; the price of UR05 is 1788, with a change of +12; the price of UR09 is 1748, with a change of +10 [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The number of warehouse receipts is 10860, unchanged; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1084 thousand tons, with a change of -0.5; the UR manufacturer inventory is 919 thousand tons, and the UR port inventory is 165 thousand tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The production volume has also generally shown an upward trend. The net import volume and apparent consumption have also changed accordingly. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied in different years. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated December 23, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is mainly on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - The bullish factor is inventory de - stocking, and the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 8, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.5%, which is neutral [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Futures Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4] Spot and Futures Quotes - The price of the spot delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the price of the 05 contract is 1698 (+1), the basis is - 8 (- 1), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), etc. [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. have also shown certain changes. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, the production was 3425, and the net import volume was 360 [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Urea prices will fluctuate. Medium - term: There is support for urea prices. The driving force is neutral currently, and whether it turns positive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640000 tons. There are still plans for new capacity in 2026. [26] - Production: From December 11 - 17, 2025, China's urea production was 1.3659 million tons, a decrease of 19500 tons or 1.41% compared to the previous period. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.37 million tons, with a slight increase possible in the next cycle. [2] - Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. For example, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants in Shanxi have changed in recent days due to coal price and cost factor fluctuations. [32] - Profit: Urea cash - flow cost - corresponding profit is currently in a profitable state. [37] - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. The export volume in 2025 (E) shows certain trends, with significant increases in some months. [43] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises carried out maintenance in November and December 2025, including Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Linggu Chemical Group, etc. Some maintenance is routine, and some is due to cost - related losses. [28] Demand Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonally, agricultural demand is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. The production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers also reflect the demand situation. [49][52][56] - Industrial Demand: - Compound Fertilizer: The production capacity utilization rate, production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers show the industry's fundamentals. [58] - Melamine: The production profit, market price, production volume, and production capacity utilization rate of melamine are presented. [59][60][61] - Real Estate: The demand from the real estate industry for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. [62] Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 17, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54500 tons or 4.42% compared to the previous week. De - stocking was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast, and Northwest China, while some main production and sales areas had slight inventory accumulation. [3][68] - Port Inventory: As of December 18, 2025 (week 51), China's urea port sample inventory was 138000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons or 12.20% compared to the previous period. [3][68] International Urea - Price: The report shows the price trends of Chinese large - granular urea FOB, Baltic large - granular urea FOB, Middle East large - granular urea FOB, and Brazilian large - granular urea CFR from 2018 - 2025. [71][72][73][74][75] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term fluctuating, medium - term bullish. Near the time point of the trading peak - season expectation. - Spread: The 1 - 5 month spread is gradually entering a fluctuating pattern. After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to take a long position in the 5 - 9 spread at low levels. - Cross - variety: Not available currently. [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: December 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand, and it is expected that the trend of the UR contract today will be volatile [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. On the demand side, both agricultural and industrial demand are mainly based on needs. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The price difference between domestic and foreign exports is large, but the short - term export demand has declined, and the overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 3, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] Inventory Analysis - UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (- 38,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Disk Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The futures price of the urea main contract is weakly declining. Industrial demand is mainly based on needs, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factor: Inventory de - stocking [5] - Bearish factors: Domestic supply exceeds demand; Daily production reaches a new high [5] - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1670, unchanged; the price of Shandong spot is 1700, unchanged; the price of Henan spot is 1670, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2729 [6] Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1673, down 8; the basis is - 3, up 8; the price of UR01 is 1630, up 1; the price of UR05 is 1673, down 8; the price of UR09 is 1681, down 6 [6] Inventory Data - The number of warehouse receipts is 11,214, down 31; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.234 million tons; UR port inventory is 123,000 tons [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show an overall upward trend, with certain fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to move in a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the price decline slowing down and entering an oscillatory phase. The upper limit is restricted by incremental warehouse receipts, while the lower limit is supported by continuous restocking from middle and downstream players. The current fundamental driver of urea is neutral, and the price is supported by the continuous reduction of explicit inventory. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 yuan/ton and a support level between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (01 Contract)**: The closing price was 1,643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,644 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 140,314 lots, a decrease of 76,397 lots; the open interest was 150,646 lots, a decrease of 16,428 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 11,477 tons, a decrease of 49 tons; the trading volume was 461.365 million yuan, a decrease of 254.325 million yuan. The basis in Shandong increased by 3, the basis of Fengxi - contract increased by 3, and the basis of Dongguang - contract decreased by 7. The spread of UR01 - UR05 of Henan Xinlianxin decreased by 4 [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Hebei Dongguang decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong remained unchanged, while those in Shanxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - side Key Indicators**: The operating rate was 79.60%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points, and the daily output was 192,480 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased. The demand for reserves and exports has improved the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral. Whether the driver can turn upward depends on the continuity of middle - stream restocking [2] - In the short - term, as the urea price drops from a high level, the spot trading improved on Tuesday. The overall price decline is expected to slow down, and the market will enter an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to spot trading and enterprise inventory data released by information providers [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The view on urea this week is a fluctuating decline. In the short term, the driving force is neutral. The futures price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, with support mainly coming from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous destocking of explicit inventory supports the price. In terms of valuation, the spot trading slowed down from Thursday to Sunday, and there may be policy pressure. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. - For trading strategies, the price is expected to decline weakly as it approaches the upper limit of valuation with weakening trading volume. The 1 - 5 month spread is gradually entering a fluctuating pattern, and it is recommended to take a long position in the 5 - 9 spread when the price is low after the premium of the 05 contract is compressed. There is no cross - variety strategy for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640,000 tons. There are also plans for new production capacity in 2026 [23]. - **Production**: This week (20251127 - 1203), the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.37 million tons, a slight decrease from this period. The production profit is at the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [2][26]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The cash - flow cost and full cost of synthetic ammonia and urea in fixed - bed factories in Shanxi have been calculated, and the cash - flow cost of urea production using the gas - flow bed method has also been presented [29]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state [34]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The export volume of urea in 2025 shows an increasing trend, and the export profit of small - particle urea is also presented [40]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The demand for agricultural fertilizers varies by region and season [46][49]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers are presented through indicators such as production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [53][54][55]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in Shandong are shown [57][59]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, as shown by data on panel export volume, real estate completion area, and construction area [61]. Inventory - Factory inventory: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased [2][67]. - Port inventory: As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5%. The current port collection rhythm is still slow [2][67]. International Urea - International urea prices are presented through the FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [71][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental driver of urea is currently neutral, and the short - term futures price is gradually entering a shock pattern. The subsequent upward movement of the driver depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The basic face supports the price due to the continuous reduction of explicit inventory, and the valuation range has shifted upward in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,694 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the trading volume was 155,992 lots, an increase of 35,372 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 209,271 lots, a decrease of 282 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,353 tons, an increase of 1,588 tons; the trading volume was 5.28492 billion yuan, an increase of 1.20684 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 22 yuan, an increase of 34 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the disk was - 138 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the disk was 12 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan; the spread between UR01 - UR05 was - 57 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while the price of Hebei Dongguang increased by 10 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 30 yuan to 1,710 yuan/ton and 1,570 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 79.60%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points, and the daily output was 192,480 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons [1] 3.2 Industry News - On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, mainly due to the continuous restocking of reserve demand, the recovery of compound fertilizer industrial demand, and the promotion of some export demands. The inventory decreased in 13 provinces and increased in 6 provinces [2] - The demand side, with the combination of reserve and export, has led to a phased improvement in the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral. Whether the driver can turn upward depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. Currently, the fundamentals driver of urea is considered neutral, and the explicit inventory has continuously decreased, supporting the price. In terms of valuation, the short - term valuation range has shifted upward. The short - term static valuation pressure on the futures is at 1,700 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1,700 yuan/ton. The lower support for the 01 contract is expected to be at 1,580 - 1,600 yuan/ton [2][3]