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瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250422
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-22 09:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2506 oscillated weakly, closing at 7,236 yuan/ton. Supply decreased due to the expanded impact of previously shut - down plants, with last week's output down 2.43% to 305,800 tons and capacity utilization down 1.64% to 66.77%. Demand saw mixed changes in downstream operating rates, and consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 6.87% to 259,700 tons. Inventory decreased in factories and East - China ports but increased in South - China ports. Some plants are expected to shut down or reduce production this week, and output and capacity utilization are likely to decline. The restart of maintenance plants from late April to early May will provide a discount space for the 06 - contract. EPS demand is recovering in some regions, while PS and ABS demand is suppressed by US tariffs. International oil prices are oscillating, and pure benzene prices have short - term support. EB2506 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7,100 - 7,500 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active futures contract for styrene was 7,236 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan. The trading volume was 24,715 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders decreased by 532 lots to 391,767 lots. The 3 - month contract closing price was unchanged. The open interest of the active contract decreased by 4,868 lots to 282,446 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 holders decreased by 4,529 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders increased by 3,997 lots to 396,635 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,363 lots to 0 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 912.5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price in South China decreased by 12 yuan to 7,862 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was unchanged. The CFR China intermediate price was 922.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price in Northeast China was unchanged, that in North China decreased by 25 yuan to 7,575 yuan/ton, and that in East China was 7,525 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 791 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia was 871 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe decreased by 5 dollars to 818.5 dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf decreased by 6 dollars to 457 dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 756.33 dollars/ton, unchanged; that in the US Gulf's FOB was 255 cents/gallon, unchanged; that in Rotterdam's FOB was 707 dollars/ton, unchanged. The market price in South China was unchanged, that in East China increased by 15 yuan to 6,370 yuan/ton, and that in North China increased by 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene production rate was 66.77%, down 1.64 percentage points. The national inventory decreased by 9,807 tons. The total inventory at East - China's main ports decreased by 0.91 million tons to 8.65 million tons, and the trade inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.51 million tons. The EPS production rate increased by 11.98 percentage points to 66.99%, the ABS production rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The PS production rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 60.8%, the UPR production rate was 28%, unchanged, and the styrene - butadiene rubber production rate was 73.24%, unchanged [2] Industry News - From April 11th to 17th, China's styrene factory output was 305,800 tons, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization was 66.77%, down 1.64% month - on - month. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 259,700 tons, up 6.87% month - on - month. As of April 17th, the factory inventory was 218,400 tons, down 4.30% month - on - month. As of April 21st, the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 865,000 tons, down 9.52% month - on - month, and that at South China ports was 266,000 tons, up 2.31% month - on - month [2]
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250409
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 09:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 9, the US imposed a 104% tariff on China, and China will take measures to safeguard its rights [2]. - In the short - term, EB2505 is expected to be weak following the oil price due to OPEC+ over - production and the US tariff weakening the global economic growth outlook [2]. - In April, large - scale benzene - ethylene plant maintenance plans may partially relieve supply pressure, but short - term demand growth is expected to be limited as PS and ABS inventory accumulation problems remain unsolved [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of benzene - ethylene was 7034 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; trading volume was 440,643, down 46,246; the long position of the top 20 was 365,018 hands, an increase of 12,557 hands; the net long position was 729 hands, an increase of 1,897 hands; the short position was 364,289 hands, an increase of 10,660 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity was 0 hands, a decrease of 2,363 hands [2]. - The closing price of the March contract was 6,921 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of benzene - ethylene was 7,960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; FOB Korea was 875 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars; CFR China was 885 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars [2]. - Market prices in different regions decreased, with the largest drop of 350 yuan/ton in the Northeast region [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Ethylene prices were mostly stable, with a 2 - dollar/ton decrease in CIF Northwest Europe and a 6 - dollar/ton decrease in FD US Gulf [2]. - Pure benzene prices showed mixed trends, with a 17 - dollar/ton increase in Rotterdam FOB and a 550 - yuan/ton decrease in the South China market [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall benzene - ethylene plant operating rate was 73.28%, down 2.02 percentage points; national inventory was 205,118 tons, down 18,623 tons; East China main port inventory was 119,000 tons, down 27,600 tons; trade inventory was 83,000 tons, down 15,100 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, and UPR decreased, while those of PS and butadiene - styrene rubber changed little [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From March 28 to April 3, China's benzene - ethylene factory output was 335,700 tons, down 9,200 tons (2.67% MoM), and the capacity utilization rate was 73.28%, down 2.02 percentage points [2]. - As of April 7, Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 18.83% to 119,000 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 37.25% to 35,000 tons [2].