苯乙烯产业日报 2026-03-03 大。3月古雷、恒力等装置有检修计划，苯乙烯产能利用率预计由升转降，供应压力逐渐回落。下游前期降 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 负装置陆续恢复，需求端季节性回升。只是下游普遍处于库存中性偏高、利润中性偏低水平，或对苯乙烯 带来负反馈。苯乙烯供需驱动不大，短期预计随国际油价波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 环比 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The spot supply - demand tight - balance state is expected to continue, providing some support to prices. Due to the weak cost and strong spot, non - integrated plants turned from loss to profit last week, and the profitability of integrated plants expanded. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to oscillate strongly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogues Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7116 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the 3 - month contract closing price was 7179 yuan/ton, down 4485 yuan; the trading volume was 9176; the position of the top 20 long orders was not provided with a change value; the net long position of the top 20 was - 40314 hands, down 2964 hands; the position of the top 20 short orders was 424949 hands, up 12140 hands; the total position of active contracts was 241444 hands, down 1284 hands; the number of warehouse receipts was 116 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7080 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 1280 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 900 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the mainstream price in Northeast China was 6925 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 7265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in North China was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 7185 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 746 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 408 US dollars/ton, up 8.5 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was - 13 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 776 US dollars/ton; the market price in South China was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 5455 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in North China was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant operating rate was 70.92%, up 0.69%; the national styrene inventory was 162340 tons, down 9420 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports was 10.06 tons, down 3.17 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 46.72%, up 3.08%; ABS was 69.8%, down 0.1%; PS was 58.9%, down 1.5%; UPR was 39%, up 3%; and butadiene - styrene rubber was 81.68%, up 1.16% [2] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene plant output was 35.57 tons, up 0.99% month - on - month; the plant capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, up 0.69% month - on - month; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% to 25.97 tons; as of January 8th, the styrene plant inventory was 16.23 tons, down 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the East China port inventory was 10.06 tons, down 23.96% from last week; the South China port inventory was 1.9 tons, down 7.77% from last week; as of January 13th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 375.48 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 754.45 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - EB2602 oscillated with a slight upward trend, closing at 6,598 yuan/ton. The new 200,000 - ton device of Dongming started production last week, and the 600,000 - ton device of Lianyungang Petrochemical and the 70,000 - ton device of Guangzhou Petrochemical restarted. The impact of the maintenance of the 350,000 - ton device of Baolai expanded, and the production and capacity utilization rate of styrene increased month - on - month. The downstream operating rate mainly decreased, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased month - on - month. The dominant inventory generally maintained a destocking trend. The loss of non - integrated processes deepened, while the profit of integrated processes expanded. The restart of the 620,000 - ton device of Zhenhai Liande was postponed to the second quarter, and the 350,000 - ton device of Baolai restarted this week, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise. The integrated device has good profitability, and the number of newly added maintenance devices is limited. Due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the downstream EPS maintains a low operating rate. Some PS and ABS devices have recovered, but overall, demand is difficult to increase significantly. As the domestic styrene supply - demand turns to a relatively loose balance, the destocking rhythm of the dominant inventory is expected to slow down. In terms of cost, affected by the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the recent international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6,380 and the pressure around 6,690 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) was 338,468 lots, a month - on - month increase of 15,351 lots; the closing price of the active contract was 6,598 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 68 yuan/ton; the closing price of the January contract was 6,535 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 8,648 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 14,105 lots; the short position was 377,484 lots, and the warrant quantity was 1,700 lots, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,682 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 809.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 819.5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6,550 yuan/ton, 6,725 yuan/ton, and 6,580 yuan/ton respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 746 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 726 US dollars/ton, the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 662.5 US dollars/ton, and the FD US Gulf price was 408 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 661.17 cents/gallon, the CIF price in Taiwan was 279 US dollars/ton, the FOB price in Rotterdam was 739 US dollars/ton. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,325 yuan/ton, and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The national inventory was 170,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,550 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 139,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,600 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 84,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 51.81% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.96%), 70.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%), 54.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%), 36%, and 79.23% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 346,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.38%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS was 261,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89%. As of December 18th, the inventory of styrene plants was 171,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23%. As of December 22nd, the inventory in the East China port was 139,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%; the inventory in the South China port was 11,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.67%. As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - EB2602 showed a weak oscillation and closed at 6,509 yuan/ton. New production from a 200,000 - ton new device in Dongming and the restart of 600,000 - ton and 70,000 - ton devices in Lianyungang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical respectively, along with an expanded impact from the maintenance of a 350,000 - ton device in Baolai, led to an increase in styrene production and capacity utilization rate. Downstream operating rates mostly decreased, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS declined. The visible inventory generally maintained a downward trend. Non - integrated process losses deepened, while integrated process profits expanded. With the supply - demand balance of domestic styrene shifting to a looser state, the pace of visible inventory reduction is expected to slow. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to oscillate. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 6,390 and the resistance around 6,690 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active styrene contract was 6,509 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The trading volume was 445,526 lots, up 59,642 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 351,589 lots, down 18,663 lots; the net long positions were - 24,911 lots, down 9,610 lots; the short positions were 376,500 lots, down 9,053 lots. The 1 - month contract closing price was 6,467 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The futures open interest of the active contract was 314,602 lots, down 228 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 600 lots, up 500 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,642 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 812.5 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 822.5 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars. The mainstream prices in North China, Northeast, South, and East China were 6,812.5 yuan/ton, 6,325 yuan/ton, 6,720 yuan/ton, and 6,550 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17 yuan, 50 yuan, 0 yuan, and 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 746 US dollars/ton, 726 US dollars/ton, 661.5 US dollars/ton, and 408 US dollars/ton respectively, with changes of 0 US dollars, 0 US dollars, 3 US dollars, and 19.5 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the US Gulf (FOB) were 661.17 US dollars/ton, 739 US dollars/ton, and 279 cents/gallon respectively, with changes of 0 US dollars, 0 US dollars, and 0 cents. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China were 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,325 yuan/ton, and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 yuan, 40 yuan, and 0 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 69.13%, up 0.84 percentage points. The national styrene inventory was 170,960 tons, down 7,550 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 139,300 tons, up 4,600 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 84,600 tons, up 2,200 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 51.81%, 70.1%, 54.5%, 36%, and 79.23% respectively, with changes of - 1.96 percentage points, - 0.43 percentage points, - 3.8 percentage points, 0 percentage points, and - 0.94 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 346,800 tons, up 2.38% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, up 1.02% month - on - month. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS in styrene downstream was 261,800 tons, down 3.89% month - on - month. As of December 18th, the styrene plant inventory was 171,000 tons, down 4.23% from the previous week. As of December 22nd, the styrene inventory in the East China port was 139,300 tons, up 3.41% from the previous week; the inventory in the South China port was 11,000 tons, down 26.67% from the previous week. As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of styrene is expected to maintain an upward trend, and there is an incremental expectation on the demand side, but the terminal demand has no improvement signal, which may limit the growth space and sustainability. The spot tight - balance state is expected to continue, slowly consuming the high inventory pressure. The international oil price has mixed long and short factors. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals have no improvement signs, and the basis of the December contract is in the neutral range. Technically, EB2512 should pay attention to the pressure around 6560 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan; the trading volume was 263,018 lots, a decrease of 99,891 lots; the long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 386,746 lots, a decrease of 9,200 lots; the net long - position volume was - 47,224 lots, an increase of 3,121 lots; the short - position volume was 433,970 lots, a decrease of 12,321 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,560 lots, a decrease of 229 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 6486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 184,040 lots, a decrease of 43,582 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan; the FOB Korea intermediate price was 803 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 813 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars; the mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North and East China were 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6690 yuan/ton (an increase of 45 yuan), 6485 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan) and 6535 yuan/ton (an increase of 35 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 736 dollars/ton (unchanged), CFR Southeast Asia was 726 dollars/ton (unchanged), CIF Northwest Europe was 645 dollars/ton (a decrease of 1 dollar), and FD US Gulf was 457 dollars/ton (a decrease of 6 dollars). The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 664.67 dollars/ton (unchanged), the FOB price in the US Gulf was 0 cents/gallon, the FOB price in Rotterdam was 693 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the market prices in South, East and North China were 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5420 yuan/ton (an increase of 15 yuan) and 5235 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total styrene production from November 7th to 13th was 344,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.45%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The national styrene inventory was 189,431 tons, an increase of 9,399 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 148,300 tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 87,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR and styrene - butadiene rubber were 51.63% (a decrease of 2.32%), 71.8% (an increase of 0.2%), 55.4% (an increase of 1.9%), 36% (unchanged) and 74.76% (an increase of 2.52%) respectively. From November 7th to 13th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS and ABS decreased by 0.11% month - on - month to 260,600 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants increased by 3.45% month - on - month to 344,400 tons, and the plant capacity utilization rate increased by 2.31% month - on - month to 69.25%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS and ABS decreased by 0.11% month - on - month to 260,600 tons. As of November 13th, the styrene plant inventory increased by 5.22% week - on - week to 189,400 tons; as of November 17th, the East China port inventory decreased by 15.16% week - on - week to 148,300 tons; as of November 10th, the South China port inventory decreased by 24.73% week - on - week to 21,000 tons [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - As of November 12th, the non - integrated profit was - 459 yuan/ton; as of November 13th, the styrene integrated profit was 15.31 yuan/ton. The inventories in East China and Hainan ports maintained a destocking trend, but the visible inventory was still high. The non - integrated profit was deeply in the red, and the integrated profit recovered to a small profit level. There are no new shutdown devices in the short term, and a device in East China is expected to restart this week, so the styrene supply is expected to continue to rise. The maintenance devices of downstream EPS, PS and ABS have resumed operation, and the newly put - into - production devices have increased production, so there is an incremental expectation on the demand side. However, the terminal demand has no improvement signal, which may limit the growth space and sustainability [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2512 oscillated strongly and closed at 6,306 yuan/ton. The restart of new - capacity devices led to an increase in styrene production and capacity utilization. The downstream EPS and ABS operating rates decreased, while PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber operating rates increased, with significant consumption reduction in EPS, PS, and ABS. Factory and port inventories declined, and the high - level visible inventory decreased. The upstream raw material prices were weak, but the decline in styrene spot prices was higher than the cost, deepening the losses of non - integrated processes and keeping integrated processes in a slight loss state. This week, the domestic styrene supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream demand will provide some support. The spot market is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, slowly consuming high - inventory pressure, but it is difficult to form a driving force for price increases. In the short term, EB2512 is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 6,160 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6,306 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the trading volume was down 2,982 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 6,340 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan. The long - position volume of the top 20 holders was not provided, the net long - position volume was - 28,540 lots, up 7,340 lots, and the short - position volume was 481,272 lots, down 10,322 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 2,060 lots, up 600 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,686 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 768 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 778 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 6,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6,420 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 6,225 yuan/ton, and 6,295 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf intermediate prices of ethylene were 741 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 731 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 644 US dollars/ton (up 2.5 US dollars), and 457 US dollars/ton (down 6 US dollars) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), the US Gulf (FOB), and Rotterdam (FOB) were 650.86 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 259 cents/gallon (up 10 cents), and 685 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in the South, East, and North China markets were 5,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,260 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), and 5,220 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan) respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 66.94%, up 0.22%. The national styrene inventory was 180,032 tons, down 6,004 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 174,800 tons, down 45,000 tons, and the trade inventory was 101,800 tons, down 80,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 53.95% (down 8.29%), 71.6% (down 0.5%), 53.5% (up 1.5%), 36% (up 1%), and 72.24% (up 5.53%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, styrene production increased by 2.94% to 332,900 tons, and capacity utilization increased by 0.22% to 66.94%. From November 1 to 7, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 3.9% to 260,900 tons. As of November 6, the styrene factory inventory was 180,000 tons, down 3.23% from last week; as of November 10, the pure benzene inventory in the East China port was 174,800 tons, down 2.51% from last week. As of November 5, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 6,791.18 yuan/ton, the non - integrated device profit decreased to - 476 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was around - 126.46 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2512 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6321 yuan/ton. Last week, the production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased due to the shutdown and maintenance of some devices. The downstream operating rate mainly declined, and the consumption of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventories decreased, but the inventory pressure remained high. The spot price of pure benzene and ethylene CFR Northeast Asia continued to be weak, the cost of non - integrated processes decreased, and the profit was repaired. This week, the impact of shutdown devices is expected to expand, and the production and capacity utilization of styrene are expected to continue to decline. Downstream devices have the expectation of increasing load, which may further deepen the short - term tight balance of styrene supply and demand, but the positive impact of supply - demand improvement is limited under high inventory pressure. The current integrated profit of styrene is close to the break - even line, indicating low valuation. Pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 6214 for the daily K - line of EB2512 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 389,583 lots, a decrease of 125,523 lots; the long position of the top 20 holders was 438,372 lots, a decrease of 2,383 lots; the net long position was - 26,139 lots, a decrease of 9,518 lots; the short position was 464,511 lots, an increase of 7,135 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 6358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the open interest was 384,902 lots, a decrease of 16,126 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of styrene was 6752 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 660 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 794 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton; the mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 6075 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan/ton), 6540 yuan/ton (a decrease of 65 yuan/ton), 6370 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 6400 yuan/ton (a decrease of 60 yuan/ton) respectively [2] 3.3上游情况 - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 741 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 731 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 662 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 662.52 US dollars/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 244 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 675 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the market prices in the South, East, and North China regions were 5450 yuan/ton, 5405 yuan/ton (a decrease of 15 yuan/ton), and 5230 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4产业情况 - The total styrene operating rate was 66.72%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 186,036 tons, a decrease of 10,231 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 109,800 tons, a decrease of 11,200 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 62.24% (an increase of 0.26 percentage points), 72.1% (a decrease of 0.7 percentage points), 52% (a decrease of 1.8 percentage points), 35% (an increase of 1 percentage point), and 66.71% (a decrease of 3.86 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6行业消息 - From October 24th to 30th, China's styrene production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 323,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.53% week - on - week to 66.72%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 0.18% week - on - week to 271,500 tons. As of October 30th, the styrene factory inventory was 186,000 tons, a decrease of 5.21% week - on - week. As of November 3rd, the inventory in the East China port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 7.10% week - on - week; the inventory in the South China port was 27,900 tons, a decrease of 10% week - on - week. From October 24th to 30th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 6,860.06 yuan/ton, and the profit of non - integrated devices was repaired to - 400 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cost of non - integrated styrene decreased and the loss deepened as the prices of pure benzene and ethylene remained weak. The supply of styrene is expected to decline slightly due to the expanding impact of previously shut - down plants. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production capacity launches may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. Terminal demand is weak, and the demand growth space of styrene may be limited. However, due to the low profit of integrated plants, the cost support is gradually strengthening. In the short term, styrene is expected to strengthen with the rise of oil prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6538 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the trading volume was 205,417 lots, down 88,489 lots; the long position of the top 20 was 434,796 lots, down 15,741 lots; the short position was 442,328 lots, down 16,687 lots; the net long position was - 7,532 lots, up 946 lots; the open interest was 160,726 lots, down 45,267 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,107 lots, unchanged; the closing price of the November contract was 6538 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of styrene was 6834 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB South Korea was 791.5 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; CFR China was 801.5 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; the mainstream price in the Northeast was 6450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in the South China was 6550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in the North China was 6395 yuan/ton; in the East China was 6465 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia price of ethylene was 781 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 771 dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe was 683.5 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars; FD US Gulf was 457 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 671.33 dollars/ton; in the US Gulf's FOB was 251 cents/gallon; in Rotterdam's FOB was 649 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; the market price in the South China market was 5450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in the East China market was 5435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the North China market was 5300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 71.88%, down 1.73 percentage points; the national inventory was 193,420 tons, down 443 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 202,500 tons, up 6,000 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 122,500 tons, up 1,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 62.53%, up 21.79 percentage points; ABS was 73.1%, up 0.6 percentage points; PS was 53.8%, down 0.8 percentage points; UPR was 34%, up 14 percentage points; styrene - butadiene rubber was 70.28%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, styrene production decreased by 2.33% to 339,400 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%. The downstream operating rate of styrene mainly increased, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 13.93% to 273,200 tons. As of October 16th, the factory inventory decreased by 0.23% to 193,400 tons, the East China port inventory increased by 3.05% to 202,500 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 8.2% to 33,000 tons. The non - integrated cost decreased to 7128 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 588 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of styrene is expected to decline slightly due to the expanded impact of previously shut - down plants, with no new maintenance or restarting plants this week [2]. - There is a mismatch in the production schedules between upstream and downstream, which may deepen the supply - demand contradiction as 1.2 million tons of styrene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in October, while the downstream EPS, PS, ABS production capacity is concentrated from November to December [2]. - The terminal demand is weak, and the growth space of styrene demand may be limited due to high inventory and low profit in some downstream sectors [2]. - The cost of non - integrated styrene has decreased, and the loss has deepened. The cost support is gradually strengthening as the profit of integrated plants is low [2]. - Although the supply - demand situation of styrene is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and there is an expectation of positive macro - policies in late October, so the downward space in the future may be limited [2]. - Technically, the short - term downward trend of EB2511 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the RSI indicators show the price is in the oversold range [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract is 453,930, and the closing price of the November contract is 6,365 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 9,570 hands to 263,109 hands [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 35,433 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB South Korea intermediate price is 793 US dollars/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices in different regions have declined to varying degrees, such as the Northeast region at 803 yuan/ton, the South China region at 6,610 yuan/ton, and the North China region at 6,515 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of ethylene and pure benzene in different regions have declined, such as the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene at 781 US dollars/ton, and the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf at 655 US cents/gallon [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the national inventory decreased by 443 tons to 193,420 tons [2]. - The inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons, and the trade inventory increased by 0.51 million tons to 12.15 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products such as EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber have changed to varying degrees, with the operating rate of EPS at 21.79% and that of ABS at 73.1% [2]. Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, styrene production decreased by 2.33% to 339,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88% [2]. - The downstream operating rate of styrene mainly increased, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, ABS increased by 13.93% to 273,200 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the factory inventory of styrene decreased by 0.23% to 193,400 tons, and the East China port inventory decreased by 2.67% to 196,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 11.59% to 30,500 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 7,128 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 588 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From September 12th to 18th, styrene weekly output decreased by 2.03% to 346,800 tons, and weekly capacity utilization decreased by 1.54% to 73.44%. The downstream consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.14% to 278,300 tons. As of September 18th, the factory inventory decreased by 1.81% to 216,300 tons, and as of September 22nd, the East China port inventory increased by 17.30% to 186,500 tons, while the South China port inventory decreased by 37.61% to 13,600 tons. The non - integrated cost of styrene increased, and the profit was - 368 yuan/ton. The domestic large - scale plants are taking turns for maintenance, and this cycle may last for several months. The 800,000 - ton plant of Guangdong Petrochemical will restart this week, and the 620,000 - ton plant of Zhenhai Liande plans to stop production. The output and capacity utilization may rise. The new plant's commissioning is postponed to October, and the overall supply pressure in September shows a downward trend. The load of EPS, PS, and ABS plants is expected to be slightly adjusted. The inventory is back in the destocking cycle, but the current inventory pressure is still relatively high. The OPEC+ production increase has a continuous impact, and the long - term global crude oil supply is expected to be stronger than demand, putting pressure on oil prices, but the short - term geopolitical situation is still uncertain. The EB2511 disk trend is weak, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 6,800 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures is 6,928 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan; the trading volume is 253,473 lots, down 10,606 lots. The 11 - month contract closing price is 6,928 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The long position of the top 20 holders is 405,128 lots, and the net long position is - 33,152 lots, down 791 lots. The short position is 438,280 lots, up 20,730 lots. The futures holding volume is 379,614 lots, up 43,085 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,314 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 965 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price is 865 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,880 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), 7,160 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 6,920 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and 7,030 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 846 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 745.5 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), US Gulf (FOB), and Rotterdam (FOB) are 722.17 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar), 250 cents/gallon (down 3 cents), and 663 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 5,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,885 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,010 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate is 73.44%, down 1.54 percentage points; the national inventory is 216,283 tons, down 3,994 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 159,000 tons, down 17,500 tons; the trade inventory is 78,000 tons, down 9,000 tons. The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 61.74% (up 0.72 percentage points), 69.8% (down 0.2 percentage points), 61.2% (down 0.7 percentage points), 34% (unchanged), and 70.43% (up 0.86 percentage points) respectively [2] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, styrene weekly output and capacity utilization decreased. The downstream consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased. The factory inventory decreased, the East China port inventory increased, and the South China port inventory decreased. The non - integrated cost of styrene increased, and the profit was negative. The domestic large - scale plants are under maintenance, and the 800,000 - ton plant of Guangdong Petrochemical will restart this week, while the 620,000 - ton plant of Zhenhai Liande plans to stop production [2]