交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-19 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2620，基差-68，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.55万吨，上周1.9万吨，周环比减少18.42%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比减 少40.38%。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，需求表现良好和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-82，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.55万吨，上周1.9万吨，周环比减少18.42%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比减 少40.38%。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-17 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2620至2680区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，国产油菜籽上市压制盘面预期和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机 处于低位，菜粕库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港 量增多但油厂库存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税 短期利多菜粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-71，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.55万吨，上周1.9万吨，周环比减少18.42%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比减 少4 ...

菜粕早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-11 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 菜粕RM2509：2580至2640区间震荡 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，需求预期良好和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差-109，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周2万吨，周环比减少5%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少 32.14%。偏多 4.盘面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2560至2620区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，需求预期良好和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-114，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周2万吨，周环比减少5%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少 32.14%。偏多 4.盘面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 2025-06-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2520至2580区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，获利盘回吐和技术性调整，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕库存维 持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库存短期 无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕，但未对 油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2460，基差-83，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存2.万吨，上周2.35万吨，周环比减少14.89%，去年同期3万吨，同比减少 21.67%。偏多 4.盘面 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. It is currently influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, and the impact of China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, but the long - term trend is affected by the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal nature of demand [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in the 2600 - 2660 range. The fundamentals show that it is driven by soybean meal and technical buying. The low operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is gradually rising, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is increasing, but the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but its impact is limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is emerging from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Globally, the rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical situation may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish**: The increase in the arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From May 21 to May 30, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow, and the spread of the 2509 contract remained oscillatory. The rapeseed meal futures price showed an upward trend, while the spot price followed the relatively weak soybean meal, and the spot discount slightly expanded [13][14][20]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed stopped falling and rebounded, while the rapeseed meal inventory slightly declined [9][28]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables show the changes in harvest area, output, supply, demand, and inventory from 2014 to 2023 [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2540 - 2600. It is currently affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, and the influence of soybean meal prices, leading to short - term range - bound fluctuations [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2540 and 2600 [9]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market. - The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia offsetting each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China, and the rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal prices have rebounded with the influence of soybean meal, and spot prices have followed suit. The basis remains at a relatively high level of discount. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is gradually recovering in the short term. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure. The additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes by China are bullish for rapeseed meal, but the bullish effect may be limited as no additional tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports [10][20]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 85, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, up 49.48% week - on - week from 0.97 million tons last week and down 44.23% year - on - year from 2.6 million tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [10]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [10]. - **Historical supply and demand balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 5. Position Data - The long positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [10]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as low oil mill operation rates, low inventory, and short - term recovery in demand. The additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are bullish, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the bullish effect. The overall situation is neutral. - **Basis**: The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. - **Inventory**: The week - on - week increase in inventory is bullish, while the year - on - year decrease is also bullish. - **Market trend**: The price below the 20 - day moving average is bearish. - **Main player positions**: The increase in main long positions and capital inflow are bullish. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, tariff policies, and soybean meal prices [10].

Report Overview - The report is a rapeseed meal morning report dated May 6, 2025, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2480 - 2540. The price is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540 [9] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills - **Bearish**: Increased imports of rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply and demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including information on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - **Price and Transaction Data**: Data on the average transaction price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 21 - 30 are presented, as well as rapeseed meal futures and spot prices during the same period - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics from April 18 - 30 are provided [14][15][16][24][25] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and capital has flowed in [10] 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal has oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low rapeseed meal inventory at oil mills and short - term recovery in spot demand support the market. The increase in imported rapeseed arrivals and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes have mixed effects - **Basis**: The spot price is 2480, with a basis of - 56, indicating a discount to the futures price - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 64.07% - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward - **Main Position**: The main long positions have increased, and capital has flowed in - **Expectation**: In the short - term, rapeseed meal prices are affected by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, rising and then falling. Driven by soybean meal, the price is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-04-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 近期要闻： 1.国内水产养殖淡季中回升，现货市场供应偏紧需求回升。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2540至2600区间震荡。 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕，但未 对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。偏多 2.基差：现货2500，基差-88，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.97万吨，上周0.99万吨，周 ...