Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and remain volatile in the short term [9]. - The rapeseed meal was affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and there are rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada recently, so it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is positive, the inventory is decreasing and is bullish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and bearish, the main short positions are increasing and bearish, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 19th to 29th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2620 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was between 2968 - 3030 yuan. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was between 410 - 468 yuan [13]. - From September 19th to 29th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract was between 2395 - 2528 yuan, the price of the far - month 2605 contract was between 2319 - 2387 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian was between 2500 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 17th to 29th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10104 to 9245 [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat [24]. - The amount of rapeseed crushed by oil mills decreased significantly [26]. - The price of aquaculture fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - No information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the possible tariff cuts between China and Canada, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. It is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of tariff reduction. It has fallen after a rise and will return to a short - term shock pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal fluctuates narrowly. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, causing the market to fall due to news [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 10th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3004 - 3059 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.08 million tons on September 15th. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 459 yuan [13]. - From September 10th to 18th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2460 - 2567 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2357 - 2420 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2540 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 8th to 18th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10403 to 9504 [16]. - The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium increased slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remained low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [24]. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [26]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2460至2520区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，中加贸易关系有改善传闻和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待 加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低 位支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息 面影响震荡回落。中性 2.基差：现货2580，基差76，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.8万吨，上周2.5万吨，周环比减少28%，去年同期2.4万吨，同比减少 25%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently experiencing a short - term shock - strengthening pattern due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season with low inventory supporting the market, but after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2520 - 2580 range. The market is influenced by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term demand is in the peak season with low inventory, but there are concerns about post - National Day demand and Sino - Canadian trade [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an escalation in geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From September 1st to 9th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3053 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 7.84 - 17.49 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was mainly around 2560 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small, from 0 - 0.23 million tons. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 453 - 504 yuan/ton [13]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 1st to 9th, the price of the main rapeseed meal futures contract 2601 fluctuated between 2500 - 2550, and the far - month contract 2605 was between 2388 - 2408. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was stable at 2560 - 2600 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 28th to September 9th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts first decreased and then increased. For example, on August 28th, it was 7314 (- 396), and on September 9th, it was 11343 (+940) [16]. - **Aquatic Product Prices**: Aquatic fish prices have rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is a bearish signal [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a strong and volatile short - term pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. It is predicted to oscillate between 2600 and 2660 in the RM2601 contract, and the market should pay attention to subsequent developments [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt No content is provided for this part. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is yet to be determined, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, providing support for commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposit; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not significant [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 show the changes in harvest area, production, inventory, and other indicators over the years [23][24]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week and 14.29% year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2680, with a basis of - 8, indicating a discount to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards [8]. - **Import Situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [25]. - **Oil Mill Situation**: The rapeseed inventory in oil mills has dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills has increased slightly [27][29]. - **Aquatic Product Market**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [37]. 3.5 Position Data The short positions of the main contract have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of China's tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2680 - 2740 range oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the import of rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is low. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. The basis is at - 95, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory increased by 25.83% week - on - week to 1.9 million tons and decreased by 44.12% year - on - year, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish. The main positions have changed from long to short with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short - term, rapeseed meal is expected to return to range oscillation due to factors such as low rapeseed inventory and tariff policies [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook. The slightly reduced annual output of Canadian rapeseed supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the reduced output in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts still supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors are the listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 21 to July 30 shows the average trading prices, trading volumes, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary shows the prices of the main 2509 contract, the far - month 2601 contract, and the spot price in Fujian from July 22 to July 30. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics show that the warehouse receipts have been 0 for several consecutive days. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023 show data on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has slightly increased [14][16][25]. 5. Position Data - Not specifically summarized in the provided content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and the trends of related products. Traders can pay attention to the range of 2680 - 2740 and the changes in factors such as inventory and tariffs [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2620 - 2680. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tip - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2620 - 2680. It is affected by soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, low inventory, and tariff policies. The current situation is neutral, but there are multi - faceted influencing factors [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future increase in global geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish**: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June; the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From July 3 to 14, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, with the lowest being 341 on July 14. Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices showed an upward trend, and the spot price discount remained relatively high [14][16]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%. The import volume of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the inventory of oil mill rapeseed decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory remained low [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Data from 2014 - 2023 on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets show changes in various supply and demand indicators over the years, such as production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players increased, and capital flowed in, indicating a bullish sentiment [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, and low inventory. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season, and the import volume of rapeseed has increased, but the oil mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is - 99, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main players increased, and capital flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short - term, rapeseed meal is affected by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, causing the price to rise and then fall. With the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to a range - bound oscillation [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2580 - 2640. It is affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market while demand remains strong [11]. - Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing with uncertain results [11]. - Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June, and there is uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, inventory, and other indicators over the years [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: Data on the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 2 to July 11 are presented, along with the price spread between them. Also, rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from July 3 to July 11 are provided [14][16]. - **Other Data**: Imported rapeseed arrivals in July were lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory decreased slightly, while rapeseed meal inventory remained low. Oil mill rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [27][29][39]. 5. Position Data - No information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal rebounded with fluctuations, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, oil mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading. China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the impact may be limited due to the lack of tariffs on rapeseed imports [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, down 58.18% week - on - week from 1.1 tons last week and 84.67% year - on - year from 3 tons last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Influenced by soybean meal, rapeseed meal prices are expected to return to range - bound trading [9].

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-11 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 2.加拿大油菜籽年度产量小幅减少支撑外盘期货，中国对加拿大菜子油 和油渣饼加征关税，另外中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查尚在进行，未 来结果尚有变数，或会等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 菜粕RM2509：2600至2660区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the import tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The overall outlook is neutral [9]. - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is that it will return to range - bound trading due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, along with the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the 2540 - 2600 range. Influential factors include soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The current status is neutral [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market has improved. The demand side maintains a good outlook [11]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian rapeseed production. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and basis**: Spot price is 2500, basis is - 86, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, down 58.18% week - on - week from 1.1 tons last week and 84.67% year - on - year from 3 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Inventory - Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have been summarized, showing that the spot price has followed the futures price with small fluctuations, and the spot discount has remained at a relatively high level [16][20]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has remained volatile [22]. - The rapeseed import volume in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. - The oil mill's rapeseed inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has remained low [29]. - The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume has slightly decreased [31]. 3.7 Aquaculture Production and Price - The report provides data on China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports [33][35][37]. - Aquatic fish prices have fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [39].