The AI boom’s potential riches for utilities have obscured a crucial vulnerability, @liamdenning says. As regulated entities, they are beholden to public support (via @opinion) https://t.co/yNJ7SxWGru ...

Core Insights - Intel's turnaround efforts appear to be gaining momentum, supported by investments from the federal government and Nvidia, alongside confidence in new CEO Lip-Bu Tan [1][2] Group 1: Intel's 18A Process - Intel's future relies heavily on its 18A process, which is a 1.8 nm technology aimed at competing with TSMC and Samsung in contract chip manufacturing [4] - Production of the 18A process has just begun, and management expresses optimism about improving yields to meet customer demand [5] - Nvidia tested Intel's 18A process but decided against using it for manufacturing, which raises concerns about potential technical issues or yield problems [6] Group 2: Market Reaction and Implications - Following the news of Nvidia's decision, Intel's stock experienced a brief decline of up to 4% but recovered most of the losses by the end of the trading session [8] - The absence of a major external customer for the 18A process, particularly Nvidia, represents a significant setback for Intel's foundry ambitions [8]

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Core Viewpoint - Two leading chipmakers have indicated that computer and smartphone manufacturers will face significant challenges due to a worsening shortage of DRAM chips, which are essential for their products [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The shortage of DRAM chips is expected to severely affect the production capabilities of computer and smartphone companies [1] - This situation may lead to increased prices for end consumers as manufacturers struggle to secure necessary components [1] Group 2: Company Response - The chipmakers have previously warned about supply chain disruptions, indicating that the current shortage is a continuation of ongoing issues in the semiconductor industry [1] - Companies are likely to implement strategies to mitigate the impact of the shortage, including potential adjustments in production schedules and sourcing [1]

Core Viewpoint - Defiance ETFs and Futurum Equities have launched a new ETF targeting stocks that appeal to retail investors, reflecting the growing influence of this investor group in the U.S. stock market [1][8]. Group 1: ETF Details - The Defiance Retail Kings ETF (RKNG.O) will manage a portfolio of 30 to 50 stocks aimed at self-directed retail investors seeking high-growth and high-momentum opportunities [1][7]. - The ETF does not focus on meme stocks, which are known for their volatile trading patterns influenced by social media [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The ETF's initial portfolio includes companies such as Micron (MU.O), Palantir Technologies (PLTR.O), and Robinhood (HOOD.O), with a notable holding in Oklo (OKLO.N), which has seen a 170% increase in stock price over the past year due to rising demand for power linked to AI [4][3]. Group 3: Retail Investor Activity - Recent market activity highlights the increasing importance of retail investors, with $12.9 billion invested in U.S. stocks and funds in a single week, nearly double the 12-month average of $6.7 billion [5]. - On a particularly strong buying day, retail investors purchased $1.8 billion worth of stocks, marking the largest net purchases since October of the previous year [5].

Core Insights - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is approaching the significant psychological level of 50,000, which has historically been a point of investor decision-making [1][2] - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is also nearing its own key level of 7,000, with different historical performance patterns compared to the Dow [2][12] Dow Jones Industrial Average Analysis - Historical data shows that after the Dow approaches even 10k levels, there is often short-term weakness, with seven of the last ten two-week returns being negative [4][5] - However, the index has historically recovered over the longer term, with positive returns in all previous nine instances over the next six months and eight of nine over the next three months [4][5] - The most recent approach to 50k occurred on January 6, 2026, with a two-week return of -0.97% [5] - The average returns after approaching even levels show a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the average one-year return being positive [7][9] S&P 500 Index Analysis - The SPX shows a different trend, with an average two-week return of 1.33% after approaching even levels, and 67% of returns being positive [12][14] - Historical data indicates that the SPX has consistently performed well in the long term after reaching these levels, with an average one-year return exceeding 16% [13][14] - The SPX's performance contrasts with the Dow, suggesting that the market's perception of even levels may impact short-term movements differently [12][13] Summary of Historical Returns - For the Dow, the average two-week return after approaching even levels is -0.36%, with a median return of -0.86% [9] - In contrast, the SPX has a more favorable average two-week return of 1.33%, with a median return of 0.95% [14][16] - The Dow's historical performance shows a tendency for recovery over longer periods, while the SPX has demonstrated resilience and positive momentum after reaching significant levels [7][13]

Core Viewpoint - Atlassian's stock has experienced a significant decline, raising concerns about its growth trajectory amid increasing competition and insider selling [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the year is projected to be $6.31 billion, reflecting a 20% annual increase, but growth is expected to slow to 18% in the next financial year [2]. - Recent financial results indicate a 21% revenue increase to over $1.4 billion, with the cloud business continuing to grow [7]. - The customer base has expanded to over 300,000, with monthly active users exceeding 3.5 million [8]. - The net loss has decreased from over $123 million in the first quarter to over $54 million, and gross margin improved to 82% from 81.7% [8]. Market Capitalization and Valuation - Atlassian's market capitalization has dropped from over $124 billion to $36 billion, marking a 72% decline from its peak in 2021 [1]. - The non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30, significantly lower than the five-year average of 113, indicating potential undervaluation [10]. Insider Activity - There are concerns regarding insider selling, with 533 trades resulting in nearly 4 million shares sold, valued at over $538 million [3]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces rising competition from major players such as Microsoft, GitLab, Salesforce, and Asana [6]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has fallen from a high of $326 in 2025 to around $137, approaching a critical support level at $135 [13]. - Technical indicators suggest continued downward pressure, with the MACD below the zero line and the RSI nearing oversold levels [14].

Economic Growth Projections - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast projects a significant 5.4% expansion in Q4 GDP, primarily driven by a narrowing trade deficit [1] - U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick anticipates a potential GDP growth of 5-6% by 2026, which would be unprecedented for an economy of this size [4] - The combination of a strong economy and a dovish Federal Reserve is expected to contribute to robust growth in 2026 [5] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Trump Administration is advocating for lower interest rates, with expectations of multiple cuts in 2026 as inflation decreases [4] - A new, more dovish Fed Chair is expected to be appointed soon, which could lead to increased liquidity and economic activity [4][5] - The Fed's balance sheet has increased for the first time in two years, indicating a shift towards expansionary monetary policy [4] Government Impact on GDP - The recent government shutdown is estimated to have reduced GDP by 1.5%, suggesting that the economy is stronger than current Q4 GDP figures indicate [6] AI Sector Growth - Nvidia is highlighted as a key player in the AI sector, with strong revenue visibility through 2026 and expected double-digit growth [7] - "Pick and shovel" AI energy companies like Bloom Energy and Oklo are also expected to benefit from the ongoing AI boom [10] Defense Budget and Economic Drivers - President Trump is proposing a 40% increase in the U.S. defense budget to $1.5 trillion, which is expected to benefit defense and drone stocks [11] - The Trump Administration plans to drive economic growth through deregulation, tariff dividends, and the largest tax refunds in U.S. history [12] Conclusion - The alignment of historical stimulus measures and a shift in monetary policy suggests that the potential for higher GDP growth rates is increasing [13]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a strong first full trading week of 2026, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high close on Friday, gaining 1.6% for the week [1] - The Nasdaq advanced nearly 2% but did not reach its record high [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, falling short of the forecasted 73,000, which supports the case for more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Company-Specific Developments - BlackRock shares were offloaded as the financial name saw a jump since the start of the year, capitalizing on its strength [1] - Nvidia's stock declined over 2% despite positive developments, including bullish remarks from CEO Jensen Huang and a larger sales guide for 2025 and 2026 [1] - CrowdStrike's stock fell more than 3% after announcing a $740 million acquisition of identity management startup SGNL, although the stock rose nearly 3.8% for the week overall [1] Strategic Insights - Jim Cramer advised against making sudden moves in the market, noting that the first weeks of the year often display "strange patterns" [1] - The acquisition by CrowdStrike is seen as a significant opportunity to disrupt the identity security market, which is rapidly growing due to increasing online threats [1]

Market Performance - US stocks opened positively in 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite leading gains by over 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 increased by more than 0.2% and 0.5% respectively [1] - The S&P 500 rose over 16% in 2025, and the Nasdaq Composite saw a more than 20% increase [2] Economic Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with all Wall Street forecasters predicting a stock rally for a fourth consecutive year [3] - However, potential risks include a possible falter in the AI boom, unexpected changes in the US economy, and uncertainties surrounding President Trump's tariff policies [3] Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices advanced at the start of 2026, building on their best annual performances since 1979, while aluminum prices surpassed $3,000 per ton for the first time since 2022 [3] Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates, although there are mixed expectations for the March meeting, with divisions within the central bank likely to persist [4] - President Trump is anticipated to appoint a new chair to replace Jerome Powell this month [4]