Home builders sentiment pulling back in August as elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic, ongoing supply side challenges, all weighing on the market. This comes as Warren Buffett's Bergkshire Hathaway increased its exposure to the sector last week. It did add shares of LAR.It initiated a stake as well in Dr. . Horton. Wed Bush analyst Jay McCandal joins us now.He's got his outlook for the sector. We also got some sentiment numbers at the top of the hour. Jay, despite what was a fall in mortgage rates, ...

It does look like it's getting worse. The picture is getting worse, both in terms of confidence and in terms of inflation expectations. Am I reading that correctly.That's right. Overall, consumer views have worsened over the last month and have partially reversed some of the improvements that we had seen in June and July. Overall, consumers are seeing a worsening outlook for unemployment, for inflation.A lot of this is being driven by what they're seeing around them in terms of high prices right now. We had ...

Summary of Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Labor Market Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economy, specifically consumer confidence and labor market conditions as indicated by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [1][4]. Key Points 1. **Consumer Confidence Index**: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from an upwardly revised 95.2, driven by an increase in the expectations sub-index, which went up to 74.4 from 69.9 [3][4]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment Improvement**: Consumer sentiment has shown improvement from recent lows, with inflation expectations decreasing, which has positively influenced business and income expectations for the next six months [4][5]. 3. **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: Despite the improvement, confidence indices remain below the levels at the beginning of the year and pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that consumers may continue to be cautious in their spending decisions [4][5]. 4. **Labor Market Differential**: The labor market differential, which measures the difference between respondents saying jobs are hard to get versus those saying jobs are plentiful, has been on a downward trend, indicating a loosening labor market. A larger share of respondents reported that jobs are hard to get in July, supporting forecasts for an increase in the unemployment rate [5][6]. 5. **Spending Growth**: Hard spending data indicates that consumer spending growth is slowing compared to last year, and this trend may continue [4][5]. Additional Insights - **Inflation Expectations**: The decline in inflation expectations has been a significant factor in improving business and income outlooks, although the overall consumer confidence remains cautious [4][5]. - **Unemployment Rate Forecast**: The report supports a forecast for an increasing unemployment rate due to the rising number of respondents indicating difficulty in finding jobs [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the essential findings and insights from the Conference Board report, highlighting the current state of consumer confidence and labor market conditions in the U.S. economy.

As the market stays near its all-time highs, understanding and breaking down the fundamental data becomes more important than ever for investors. With this in mind, there are typically two sets of data that truly drive the view and performance of the different sectors of the economy: first, the business data, and then the consumer data to balance the supply and demand equation. Focusing on the consumer, one of the most widely followed indicators just turned green unexpectedly, driving interest and potential ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Abercrombie & Fitch has seen a 19% increase in July, with a 6% rise on July 28, driven by a JPMorgan upgrade to "Overweight" and strong retail momentum [2] - In Q1, the company reported net sales of $1.1 billion, an 8% increase, and EPS of $1.59, surpassing the consensus of $1.36 [4] - The company has raised its full-year sales growth guidance to 3–6%, despite slightly reducing EPS forecasts due to tariff issues [4] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Abercrombie's stock appears undervalued, trading at a P/S of 1.0, P/E of 9.7, and P/FCF of 11.7, all significantly below S&P 500 averages [4] - The company's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 21.1% and a cash-to-assets ratio of 19.6%, indicating strong financial health [5] Group 3: Market Context - U.S. retail sales improved by 0.6% in May, three times the anticipated forecast, alongside a drop in jobless claims, indicating strength in the labor market [2] - Abercrombie has redefined itself for the digital age, connecting with Gen Z shoppers, which is crucial for its growth strategy [4] Group 4: Challenges - Despite strong growth, Abercrombie's profitability lags behind the broader market, with an operating margin of 14.2% compared to 18.3% for the S&P 500 [6] - The stock has shown vulnerability during market downturns, with significant declines of 70% during the 2022 inflation crisis and 83% in the 2008 financial meltdown [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunity - Abercrombie presents a rare opportunity with strong revenue growth, attractive valuation multiples, and a robust balance sheet, especially if consumer spending remains steady [8] - A diversified investment strategy may provide greater stability, as seen in the performance of the Trefis High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 [3][8]

Market Trends & Sentiment - Homebuilder ETF experienced its best day since 2022, with Horton and PTE jumping double digits [1] - Consumer confidence is improving, potentially bringing buyers off the sidelines [2] - Investor sentiment is improving with optimism that this quarter will be the last cut for homebuilders and the housing market will improve moving into 2026 [3] - Stabilization in rates is needed more than rate cuts for homebuilders to plan and consumers to make decisions [4] Company Strategy & Operations - Builders are building smaller footprints with fewer SKUs (stock keeping units) to make the build process more efficient and affordable [5] - Builders are offering financing incentives to solve for affordability [6] - Stick and brick costs (labor and material) for homebuilders are down low single digits year-over-year [7] - Public builders are gaining market share, now representing about 50% of the market among the top 16 builders, due to better access to land, labor, materials, and financing [10] External Factors & Policy - Lumber prices are up 20-30% for the year but remain in a manageable range [6] - Potential elimination of capital gains for selling homes could put incremental dollars in the hands of consumers, making home purchases more palatable [8][9] - There is a real shortage of labor in the market, but the immigration crackdown has not caused any disruption as of yet [12]

Summary of the China Consumer Pulse Survey (July 2025) Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the consumer sentiment and economic outlook in China, particularly in the context of the ongoing impacts of tariff shocks and a softening property market. Key Points Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer appetite remains lackluster despite a modest recovery from tariff shocks in April, with a deepening deflation feedback loop affecting wage growth and consumption [2][3] - 48% of consumers expect China's economy to improve in the next six months, an increase of 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), while 14% anticipate deterioration, down 7 percentage points [12][15] Household Financial Concerns - Concerns about job losses and salary cuts have risen, with 45% and 44% of consumers expressing these worries, respectively [2][44] - The expected income growth over the next 12 months is 5.8%, down from 6.2% pre-tariff levels, indicating ongoing pressures on household finances [2][37] Consumer Spending Intentions - The net score of consumers intending to increase spending improved to 11% from 7% in April, with 67% expecting flat spending [3][49] - Spending intentions for most categories remain stable, with a notable trading-down trend observed [3][53] Property Market Insights - Sentiment in the property market has weakened, with 44% of homeowners eager to sell within the next six months, a slight decrease from April [4][80] - The share of homeowners willing to accept losses has increased, with 56% indicating they would accept a loss of up to 10% [12][80] Travel and Leisure Spending - Travel intentions for domestic travel are flat, while overseas travel intentions have increased slightly but remain lower than the previous year [3][71] - The average shopping budget for travel has decreased compared to a year ago, reflecting ongoing financial pressures [74] Job Market Outlook - The number of consumers actively looking for new jobs has increased to 65%, with confidence in landing a new job stabilizing at 75% [26][29] - Concerns about a competitive job market and layoffs continue to affect consumer confidence in job security [33] Summary of Consumer Behavior - 82% of consumers reported making spending cuts in the past six months, with 56% intending to save the money saved from reduced spending [65][66] - The number of consumers with lifestyle upgrade intentions remains at 19%, indicating a cautious approach to spending [61] Additional Insights - The survey included responses from 2,060 consumers across tier 1-4 cities, providing a comprehensive view of consumer sentiment across different urban areas [5] - The findings suggest that while there are signs of stabilization in consumer confidence, significant challenges remain, particularly in the job market and property sector, which could impact future consumption patterns [2][3][4][15]

July is a major month for consumer deals, but are the discounts sufficient to lift retail sales and consumer confidence. Well, if current retail sales report is any indication, then consumers are still spending and are a bit less concerned than they were a month or two ago. Consumers ramped up spending more than economists anticipated.A sign of resiliency among American shoppers despite concerns that President Trump's tariffs are weighing on the economy. Retail sales rose by6 month overmonth, reversing a.9% ...

Consumer Confidence Hits Five-Month High Despite Rising Inflationhttps://t.co/0oNnHssnNR https://t.co/rE5HxtARRd ...

picked up in the second quarter. We did a bunch of uh of IPOs that were significant in the second quarter. You know, I call out Chime, uh Euro, Circle, these all traded well, you know, in the secondary market.There's a pretty good pentup backlog of IPO activity and I think you're going to see more of it in the third and fourth quarter, particularly if this equity market sustains. So, what kind of I mean economic growth picture are you looking at for second half and into next year. It it feels to me, you kno ...