Market Bubbles & Historical Parallels - The discussion highlights the analogous nature of historical financial crises, particularly the parallels between 1929, 2008, and the present day, emphasizing recurring patterns and potential lessons to be learned [2][3][4][5][25][29][89][90] - Easy credit, public excitement, and new technological miracles are identified as key ingredients that contribute to the formation of market bubbles [10][20][23][24][25][26][40][59] - The conversation draws comparisons between historical figures and contemporary counterparts, such as Charlie Mitchell (National City Bank) being likened to Jaime Diamond, Carter Glass to Elizabeth Warren, and John Rascob (General Motors) to Elon Musk, to illustrate recurring character types and roles in financial history [6][7][8][13][14] - The discussion points out that from 1928 to September 1929, the stock market rose by 90%, creating a "free money" environment for those buying stocks on margin [24] Regulatory Environment & Policy - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory guardrails, such as the SEC and bank capital requirements, established post-1929, while expressing concern over the potential risks associated with new market products like SPACs, NFTs, and crypto, especially when private companies enter public markets with less disclosure [70][71][72][73][74][75][84][85] - The discussion highlights the cyclical nature of regulation, with restraints often being perceived as problems until after a crisis occurs, and the tendency to democratize finance by providing public access to opportunities previously limited to elites [75][76][77] - The conversation notes the difference between private and public markets, particularly regarding insider trading and disclosure requirements, raising concerns about the potential risks of public investment in private markets without adequate protections [73][74][84][85] Debt & Monetary Policy - The report identifies the growth of debt relative to money as a key factor in financial crises, with credit (debt) being used to fuel buying power beyond available money [62][63][64][65] - The discussion emphasizes the role of easy money policies as a "cure-all" for economic problems, while also acknowledging the potential for these policies to create new problems and lead to market pops when brakes are applied [39][40][41] - The conversation highlights the shift in debt burden from the private sector to the government sector, noting that while the debt has moved, it still exists and can lead to monetization [44][45] - The report mentions that in 2008, interest rates hit zero for the first time since 1933, leading the Fed to monetize debt, a similar action to 1933, but quicker [35]

Core Insights - Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) is identified as one of the best bargain stocks to buy in November, despite a recent price target reduction by Morgan Stanley from $154 to $151 while maintaining an "Equal Weight" rating [1] - The company is planning to sell its Hispanic grocery chain, Heritage Grocers Group, which could generate approximately $1.5 billion, amid declining consumer demand in Latino communities due to fears of immigration raids [2] - Baron Funds noted that shares of Apollo detracted in Q1 2025 due to a reversal in economic sentiment and capital market activity, although they continue to hold the stock due to Apollo's focus on credit and strong management [3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley reduced the price target on Apollo's stock to $151 from $154, citing updated price targets for Alternative Asset Managers in North America [1] - The performance of alternative asset manager stocks, including Apollo, has been affected by uncertainty and volatility surrounding economic policies, leading to a reversal of gains from the previous year [3] Group 2: Business Developments - Apollo Global Management is planning to divest its Heritage Grocers Group, potentially raising around $1.5 billion, as the grocery chain has faced challenges due to weak consumer spending [2] - The grocery chain's performance has been negatively impacted this year, particularly in Latino communities, due to concerns over immigration raids affecting consumer demand [2]

Crypto Economy & Credit - The cryptoeconomy fundamentally lacks credit, despite it being a foundation of major capitalist financial systems [1] - 3Jane is launching general-purpose uncollateralized lines of credit on Ethereum mainnet [1]

Financial Performance - The company experienced strong topline revenue growth, driven by net interest income and loan growth [1][2] - Loan growth reached approximately $1.2 billion, representing an annualized growth rate of about 10% over the last six months [1] - Assets under management in the wealth division totaled $123 billion, contributing to strong fiduciary fee income growth [2] Credit and Risk Management - The company maintains conservative reserves and anticipates credit normalization, expecting a reversion to the mean over time [3][4] - The company emphasizes its strong credit underwriting history, citing its performance during the great financial crisis [4] - The company's net charge-offs for the last 12 months are less than five basis points, significantly lower than the typical range of 20 to 25 basis points [5][6] - Criticized levels are slightly more than half of what they were pre-COVID, which were already considered very good numbers [6] - The industry is well-positioned to absorb increased credit losses due to the current low levels [9] Mergers and Acquisitions - M&A activity is seen as a tailwind for the company, creating opportunities due to disruption [12] - The company aims to capitalize on the disruption caused by M&A to attract talent, new customers, and prospects within its eight-state region [13]

Accounting Fundamentals - Accounting abbreviations for debit (DR) and credit (CR) have Latin roots [1] - DR and CR can appear on a company's balance sheet [1]

Market Sentiment & Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice by year-end, reducing uncertainty related to Fed policy [1] - High valuations and expectations for the "Magnificent Seven" companies raise the bar for earnings results [2] - The market is approaching a point where earnings numbers are "priced to perfection," but not quite there yet [3][4] Regional Bank Credit Concerns - The market is showing discomfort with the concentration of idiosyncratic issues within regional banks, despite hedging activity [6] - Macro investors have been hedging against potential risks in high-yield credit for 3-6 months, mitigating the impact [6] - Concerns exist that regional bank issues may be systemic, reflecting broader, lighter underwriting standards [8][9] - The market is more concerned about consumer credit issues than industrial-side lending problems [10] AI & Power Generation Investment - High-quality stocks and AI power generation companies are attractive investment opportunities [10] - Grid issues in the US make the power sector an attractive part of the market [13] - Companies like Meta and Google may be willing to overpay for power to secure the chips needed to build their competitive advantage [13]

Industry Debate - Private-markets lenders（私募信贷机构）和 bank bosses（银行负责人）就美国信贷体系中哪个部分最危险展开争论 [1] - 对于更广泛的投资者来说，这种指责在学术上没有太大意义 [1]

Market Fundamentals & Dynamics - Markets involve the exchange of objects, requiring two parties and two objects, with money serving as a store of value and a medium of exchange [1] - Credit allows borrowing and payment over time, while asymmetric payoff offers the potential for a large return on a small investment [1] - Market prices are determined by the varying values ascribed to an object by multiple buyers and sellers [1] - Markets can be irrational, exhibiting exuberance or being downcast, and redefine themselves by changing critical measures [1][2] - Investors can either follow market trends or discipline the market by relying on equity analysis and understanding industrial dynamics [2][3] Historical Analysis of BSE Sensex - The liberalization budget of 1991 set a positive tone for markets, leading to a bull market [5][6] - Mutual funds in the private sector gained scale starting in 1993, and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) started in 1992, promoting digital trading and cleaner accounts [8][9][10] - From 2008 to 2013/14, the market experienced sideways movement, with consumer companies becoming prominent [15][16][17] - From 2013 to pre-pandemic 2020, the market saw decent growth, with digital infrastructure established and significant venture capital-funded acquisitions occurring [18] Current Market Perspective - The current market mood is cautiously optimistic, with awareness of both good and better times [19] - Technology is transforming the market, enabling new investment opportunities, although its overall impact on market superiority is debated [20][21] - Valuations are increasingly based on price-to-sales ratios, reflecting the focus on turnover in emerging businesses [22][23] Consumer Behavior & Market Impact - The Indian consumer, particularly the emerging upper-middle class, will significantly influence the market through their consumption patterns [23] - Consumer priorities have evolved from job security and homeownership to continuous education, travel, and digital identity [24][25][26][27][28][29][30] - Loans for education and experiences are becoming more common, reflecting changing consumer values [31] Investment Principles - Market uptrends require a reason, sufficient capital, and a metric for asset valuation, such as price-to-sales or digital market potential [31] - Money chases performance, and performance chases money, highlighting the importance of salience in new ideas and the cyclical nature of investment flows [31][32]

Speaking of, let's bring in Alan's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Ali, and he too is at Post 9 and it's nice to see you in person as well. >> Thanks for having me. >> So, what what do you make of the move below 4% on the 10-year.And what Steve just showed us 100% the market's convinced for this month and then in December and then 65 for January. Is is are we over our expectations a bit or no. No, I think the moves are motivated by what you discussed earlier, which is concern about credit, concerns about r ...

RT Kelp (@KelpDAO)The internet made everything on demand, from information to money.The next challenge: liquidity and credit.Global payments move $220T+ annually, yet trillions sit idle in pre-funded accounts.Stablecoins solved speed, not liquidity.Introducing Kred: The Internet of Credit.At its core is KUSD, a fully collateralized, rewards-bearing stablecoin, backed by real-world repayments.@kernel_dao’s latest report by @GAmitej, @disankit, @indrajitghosh89, with contributions from @_ashmorgan_ ( @ethereu ...