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摩根士丹利:中国思考-尽管关税缓和,通缩仍在持续
摩根· 2025-06-24 02:27
June 23, 2025 11:47 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Lingering Deflation Despite Tariff Detente Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M Tariffs De-escalated, Challenges Remain 2025 GDP to sustain at 4.5%, with less tariff shock than seen before May 12th … 1.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 1.2 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 5.0 4.5 4.2 -2 -1 0 1 ...
Economic data has shown the continuation of a soft landing: PIMCO's former economist Paul McCulley
CNBC Television· 2025-06-17 17:48
September. Kelly. >> All right.So still looking maybe for them to lower rates in a few more months. Steve stay right there as we bring in Paul McCulley Pimco's former chief economist Paul always like to speak with you on the eve of these decisions. And so far, the preponderance of evidence has kind of been to the deflationary side of the tariff case.I mean, even what you see, apparel prices slightly lower. There's not a lot in any of the reports up until now, that point towards a lot of price hikes througho ...
摩根士丹利:中国观察-3 个新转变,1 个持续主题
摩根· 2025-06-16 03:16
China Musings | Asia Pacific 3 New Shifts, 1 Sticky Theme We address three changes that have taken place since our mid- year outlook (trade talks, trade-ins, and the trickle of reform), and one that hasn't: why deflation remains the core macro constant. June 12, 2025 08:24 AM GMT • Allocated trade-in funding is used up in some regions: According to official disclosures, the central government has allocated and distributed two batches of trade-in funds. Rmb81bn on January 6, and another Rmb81bn in late April ...
The Trump And Elon Feud | ITK With Cathie Wood
ARK Invest· 2025-06-07 00:41
[Music] Greetings everyone. It is uh in the know day as well employment Friday uh and uh we have a lot to discuss as usual we'll we'll go through fiscal policy monetary policy economic indicators market indicators and uh we'll talk a little bit about uh some real breakthroughs in terms of uh the market recognizing how much innovation is taking place. Um so uh starting w with fiscal policy and I'll I'll go through and and just uh make a few observations before we flip to charts.So um on fiscal policy, well t ...
David Friedberg Explains AI's Abundant Future: More Time for Family, Friends, and Leisure
All-In Podcast· 2025-06-01 16:57
folks are underestimating and underrealizing the benefits at this stage of what's going to come out of the AI revolution and how it's ultimately going to benefit people's availability of products, cost of goods, access to things. So the counterbalancing force Jcal is deflationary which is let's assume that the cost of everything comes down by half. That's a huge relief on people's need to work 60 hours a week. Suddenly you only need to work 30 hours a week and you can have the same lifestyle or perhaps even ...
2025年6月起,中国或将迎来5大降价潮,这些东西要降价了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 00:55
Inflation and Deflation Trends - Industry experts predict a new inflation cycle in China due to M2 scale reaching 326.06 trillion yuan, which is double the GDP, but currently, deflation is observed with April CPI rising only 0.3% [1] - From June 2025, five major price drops are anticipated in China [3] Real Estate Market - Since 2022, housing prices have been on a downward trend, with cities like Tianjin and Shijiazhuang experiencing declines, and major cities like Shanghai seeing significant adjustments, with prices dropping from 95,000 yuan per square meter to 65,000 yuan, a decrease of over 30% [5] - By the second half of 2025, housing price differentiation is expected, with second and third-tier cities slowing their decline while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may experience further drops [5] Seafood Prices - Seafood prices are becoming more affordable, with prices for king crabs dropping below 200 yuan each and salmon prices decreasing by 40%, while shrimp prices fell from 38 yuan per jin to 28 yuan per jin [7] - The decline in seafood prices is attributed to consumer hesitance following Japan's nuclear wastewater discharge, leading to reduced demand despite no contamination in domestic seafood [7] Automotive Market - A price reduction trend is observed in the domestic automotive market, with mid-range cars dropping by 15,000 to 20,000 yuan and luxury imports seeing reductions up to 100,000 yuan [9] - Factors contributing to the decline include an influx of new energy vehicles, increased competition from tech companies like Huawei and Xiaomi, and reduced consumer purchasing power [9] Home Appliance Prices - Home appliance prices are expected to adjust downwards by 10% to 15% for items like refrigerators, TVs, and air conditioners by 2025 [12] - The rapid technological advancement in appliances and decreased consumer spending due to lower incomes are driving the need for discounts and promotions to clear inventory [12] Pork Prices - Pork prices are decreasing, with supermarket prices dropping from 26-28 yuan per jin to 18-20 yuan per jin, and further declines are expected [13] - The price drop is due to overproduction from previous years' high prices attracting investment in pig farming and a shift in consumer preference towards healthier meat options [13]
摩根士丹利:中国经济年中展望-关税缓和下通缩犹存
摩根· 2025-05-21 06:36
May 20, 2025 06:44 PM GMT China Economics Mid-Year Outlook Lingering Deflation Despite Tariff Detente We revise our 2025 GDP forecast upward by 30 bps to 4.5% due to reduced tariff headwinds. But deflation persists, as structural issues (housing, consumption) continue to exert downward pressure on prices. We expect lighter, delayed stimulus focused on infrastructure. Milder growth slowdown amid lower tariffs: 2025/26 GDP growth raised to 4.5%/4.2% YoY (vs. 4.2%/4.0%Y previously). We now see GDP YoY stabiliz ...
搞盛:中国的三件事
2025-05-12 08:41
Trade re-routing likely muted the impact of US tariffs on total Chinese exports 11 May 2025 | 10:49PM HKT China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 240 120 100 80 60 140 160 180 200 220 Chinese exports nominal level by destination (seasonally adjust 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 ed) US Japan EU ASEAN LatAm Africa Others (mostly EM) Index (2019=100) Index (2019=100) Source: China Customs, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research n Another deflation print: Bo ...
摩根士丹利:中国经济-关税产生影响,通缩压力加剧
摩根· 2025-05-12 08:41
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Deflationary pressures are worsening in China, primarily due to the impact of tariffs on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall economic environment [1][7] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains stable at 0.5% year-on-year, indicating some resilience despite broader deflationary trends [2][4] - The PPI has shown a significant decline, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.4%, driven by lower prices in oil, raw materials, and durable consumer goods [3][7] Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - Core CPI year-on-year remained at 0.5% in April, unchanged from March, while month-on-month seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) was 0.7% [2] - Food inflation reached its highest level in five months, primarily due to increased prices for fruit and beef, countering the effects of lower international oil prices [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased to -2.7% in April, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts and weaker final demand [6][7] - Specific sectors such as textiles, wood products, chemicals, rubber, and plastics experienced accelerated price declines, indicating significant exposure to the US market [3][7] Outlook - The PPI is expected to slip below -3% year-on-year from the current -2.7% during the May-July period due to less favorable base effects and continued tariff impacts [4] - Core CPI is anticipated to soften sequentially as the effects of PPI pass through, although year-on-year figures may remain resilient due to a low base [4][7]
摩根士丹利:Investor Presentation-中国表象之下的增长困境
摩根· 2025-05-12 08:41
Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the industry, with a potential downside risk of 0.5 percentage points to the 2025 GDP growth forecast if US-China tariffs remain at current levels [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while direct tariff impacts have been mitigated by trade rerouting, growth and deflationary pressures are mounting, with real GDP year-on-year expected to slip by approximately 1 percentage point to around 4.5% in the second quarter of 2025 [9][11]. - The report discusses the ongoing US-China trade tensions, noting that the terminal tariff rates will remain elevated despite potential de-escalation talks [5][6]. - It emphasizes the need for policy measures to support consumption and economic growth, including a supplementary fiscal package and monetary easing [34][40]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report outlines that headline reciprocal tariffs would remain at 60%, but the trade-weighted tariff hike would be reduced to 34% with exemptions on certain products [6][7]. - It notes that the direct tariff shock was mitigated in April, but exports to the US could decline further in May [13]. Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is projected to decline, with a new forecast indicating a drop to around 4.5% year-on-year in 2Q25 [9][10]. - The report suggests that deflationary pressures are likely to persist, affecting overall economic performance [28][30]. Consumption and Investment - There is a noted decline in consumer spending, particularly during the Labor Day holiday, indicating subdued consumption appetite [23][24]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in manufacturing upgrades, urban infrastructure renewal, and basic scientific research [36][40]. Policy Measures - The report outlines a series of policy measures aimed at stimulating the economy, including faster issuance of government bonds and a consumer goods trade-in program [34]. - It anticipates a Rmb1-1.5 trillion supplementary fiscal package in the second half of 2025 to support economic recovery [34][40].