Core Viewpoint - December Swiss franc futures are presenting a selling opportunity due to ongoing price weakness and bearish technical indicators [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Prices for December Swiss franc futures are trending lower, recently hitting a nine-week low [1]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish posture, with the blue MACD line below the red trigger line, indicating that bears have a near-term technical advantage [1]. - A move below the support level of 1.2473 would signal a selling opportunity, with a downside price objective of 1.2000 or lower [2]. Fundamental Factors - U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports have created uncertainty, negatively impacting the Swiss currency and economy [2]. - Switzerland is experiencing slow growth and very low inflation, which is bordering on deflation [2]. - Technical resistance is identified at 1.2685, where a protective buy stop should be placed [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussions primarily focused on the Chinese economy and its various dynamics, including growth rates, export performance, and geopolitical factors affecting trade and investment. Key Topics and Insights 1. Slowing Growth and Policy Stimulus - Major activity indicators such as industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment showed notable year-over-year growth deceleration in July and August [4][5] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential for additional policy easing due to signs of economic weakening, although policymakers appear relatively unconcerned as growth remains above 5% year-over-year [4][5] 2. Chinese Export Slowdown - There is a divergence in investor opinions regarding the outlook for Chinese exports, with some believing a slowdown is delayed while others expect it to persist despite increased US tariffs [6] - The forecast for China's current account surplus is around 3.5% of GDP for 2025 and 2026, which is significantly higher than consensus expectations [6] 3. Anti-involution and Deflation - The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as a medium-term strategy to combat deflation and improve corporate profitability, though its effects may take time to materialize [7][9] - The government aims to address issues such as overcapacity and excessive price competition, which hinder innovation and high-quality growth [9] 4. Disconnect Between Real Economy and Equity Market - There is a notable disconnect between weak domestic demand and strong equity market performance, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [10] - Despite concerns, many investors remain positive on Chinese equities, viewing them favorably compared to other investment options [10][11] 5. Focus on Consumption in the 15th Five Year Plan - Investors are concerned about China's reliance on exports and the low share of household consumption in GDP, fearing potential economic challenges similar to those faced by Japan in the 1990s [12][14] - There is cautious optimism regarding a policy shift towards boosting consumption, although the government is still focused on technological innovation and high-tech manufacturing [15] 6. US-China Relations and Geopolitics - Discussions highlighted the importance of US-China relations, with clients expressing interest in potential trade agreements and geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Taiwan [16] - The sentiment among investors is shifting towards a multipolar world, with expectations of a weaker Dollar and stronger RMB in the long term [16] Additional Important Insights - The implementation of previously announced policies, such as the RMB 500 billion financing instrument for infrastructure projects, is expected, but new easing measures are unlikely in the short term [5] - The potential for significant capital flows from households into the equity market could drive market performance higher in the coming quarters [11] This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy and its investment landscape.

RT Marty Bent (@MartyBent)All tech is deflationary. We’ve experienced insane productivity gains over the last 50 years and yet the cost of living has risen consistently.Deflation can’t stop the ills of money printing.Deflationary tech needs to be paired with scarce money to reap the optimum benefits. ...

RT Ashton Broussard (@AshtonBroussard)Technology is deflationary, fiat currencies are massively inflationary. We are entering a period of hyperinflation of the supply of money, at the same time scarce money will become more valuable and massively demand a higher amount of fiat, meanwhile technological innovations will be “cheaper.” It’s not as paradoxical as it sounds if you understand the distinctions between money, value, scarcity, and innovation and how they relate to each other. ...

Economic Theory - Deflation is presented as the natural outcome of economic activity, driven by innovation and increased production [1] - Market competition leads businesses to either retain profits from cheaper production or lower prices, benefiting consumers [1] - Actions like volunteering or creating open-source software reduce market demand and contribute to deflation [2] - Mainstream economics' advocacy for 2% inflation is questioned, suggesting it obscures the transfer of wealth from producers to those who control money creation [3] Critique of Inflation - Inflationary regimes are criticized for allowing those who print money to benefit from the labor of others [3] - The report suggests that under inflation, the value of people's work is transferred to those who create new money without contributing [3] Advocacy for Bitcoin - Bitcoin is presented as a solution to the perceived problems of inflationary monetary systems [4]

AI may increase the supply of almost everything, causing a general retail deflation. Banks, whether run by AIs or not, will increase the supply of fiat currencies. And I can imagine robot mining equipment increasing the supply of gold.Bitcoin is another matter.Nikita Bier (@nikitabier):Gold and bitcoin is acting like we’re about to enter into a period of hyperinflation—but no one realizes that AI is deflationary. ...

The inflationary response to the deflationary forces of AI will be unlike anything you've ever seen before.The Fed's aim is to ensure prices go up forever. They cannot allow them to go down.Long hard assets. ...

Macroeconomic Analysis - Japan's long-term deflation, potentially since the 1980s, is attributed to a low birth rate, leading to decreased consumer demand and persistently low prices [1] - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy of printing money and maintaining near-zero interest rates aimed to stimulate inflation [1][2] - The end of cheap money in Japan, with rising yields, could force global hedge funds and private equity firms to sell assets to repay debts in Japanese currency [2] - A potential crash in asset prices due to the unwinding of yen-carry trades could lead to companies facing financial difficulties, layoffs, and overall economic hardship [2] Investment and Financial Market Implications - Venture capital and hedge funds have been borrowing Japanese Yen to purchase American assets, driving up asset prices in America [2] - The reversal of Japan's monetary policy could trigger a global asset sell-off, impacting company valuations and capital availability [2]

Japan’s benchmark stock index, the Nikkei 225, hit a record after the leading conservative party elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader.  Nicknamed the ‘Iron Lady’ after she cited former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her hero, Takaichi has called for strengthening Japan’s military, and taking a tougher stance against China and North Korea. She also opposes same-sex marriage and retains ties to nationalist groups. "It’s the Trump effect going global here, restructuring, tax cuts, improved eco ...

Tokenomics & Burn Mechanics - Flying Tulip采用“token first”方法，平台在向用户支付之前，先在市场上购买FT代币，然后以FT代币支付 [1] - 初始融资池（10亿美金）部署到低风险场所，预计产生约4%的收益，用于运营支出，然后购买FT代币并销毁 [1] - PUT机制允许以票面价值赎回FT代币（当FT代币仍在NFT中时），赎回后销毁FT代币；如果出售/转让（放弃PUT），释放的抵押品用于购买FT代币并销毁 [1] - 团队认领代币时，进行匹配的市场购买并销毁；如果团队选择资本，则销毁相应数量的FT代币 [1] - 协议净收入（扣除分配和成本后）用于购买FT代币 [1] - 在解锁100亿名义价值的FT代币之前，购买的FT代币分配比例为：40%基金会/20%团队/20%生态系统/20%激励，并进行匹配销毁，以保持净流通量不变；达到100亿名义价值后，收入回购用于销毁 [1] Revenue & Payouts - 收入和收益来源于：收取的费用（用户费用分成）用于购买FT代币并分配给用户 [1] - “Token-first”用户支付预算（资金转移、供应商贷款利差分成、做市商/LP和Perps激励、ftUSD收益、保险奖励）用于购买FT代币并分配给用户 [1] Strategic Implications - 二级购买者没有PUT（驱动融资的机制） [1] - Flying Tulip采用“token first”方法，通过在市场上购买FT代币进行支付，而不是铸造新代币，因此分配是非通胀的，并且随后的每次销毁都会收紧供应而不是扩大供应 [1]