When Hasan Minhaj asked Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman whether voters should believe politicians who promise to “bring prices down,” Krugman was blunt. “Any politician who promises to bring prices way down is either ignorant or lying, or both,” he said on Minhaj’s podcast (1). Must Read It’s a blunt warning aimed squarely at the kind of sweeping affordability pledge Donald Trump has made central to his political brand. What Krugman is really saying about prices In the Minhaj interview, Kru ...

Since last January, we've stopped inflation in its tracks. And there is still more to do. There's always more to do, but we have it down to a very good level. It's going to go down a little bit further. You want to have a little tiny bit of inflation, otherwise that's not good either.Then you have a thing called deflation. And deflation can be worse than inflation. But we have it almost we'll soon be at a perfect level.But we inherited the worst inflation. But we have 20 states that are now selling gasoline ...

Inflation & Economy - Inflation has been stopped in its tracks, with further reduction expected to reach a near-perfect level [1] - Some states are selling gasoline at less than $2.75 [2] - Thanksgiving turkey costs are down 33% compared to the previous administration [2] - Egg prices have decreased significantly, down by 86% [2] Federal Reserve (The Fed) - The current chairman of the Fed is perceived as incompetent and should reduce rates [3] - A new chairman of the Fed will likely be announced early next year [4]

Group 1: Musk's Political Involvement and Views on National Debt - Elon Musk's political engagement is characterized as a "very interesting side quest," involving significant financial contributions to Trump's campaign and subsequent conflicts with the White House [1] - The separation between Musk and Trump was anticipated, influenced by Musk's criticism of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he believes undermines efforts to reduce government spending [2] - Musk's concerns reflect a broader anxiety among business leaders regarding the national debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion [2] Group 2: Economic Implications of National Debt - Economists express concern not about the national debt level itself, but about the rising interest payments and their effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio, a key indicator of economic health [3] - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $104 billion by October 2025, accounting for 15% of total federal spending in fiscal year 2026, with total interest for FY 2025 at $1.22 trillion [4] - To improve the debt-to-GDP ratio, nations can either cut spending or stimulate economic growth, with Musk advocating for the latter through advancements in AI [4] Group 3: Musk's Perspective on AI and Economic Growth - Musk asserts that AI and robotics are crucial for addressing the U.S. debt crisis, suggesting that technological advancements will drive economic growth [5] - He highlights that current interest payments on the national debt exceed the entire U.S. military budget, indicating a critical financial situation [5] - Musk warns that the increased production from AI could lead to "significant deflation," presenting a complex challenge for the economy [6]

Core Insights - Brazil's central bank president, Gabriel Galipolo, indicated that China is exporting "disinflation or even deflation" to Brazil through a surge in low-cost imports, which is easing inflation in the short term [1][3] - The increase in Brazilian imports from China, coupled with falling prices, is seen as a response to deeper imbalances in global trade [1][3] Economic Impact - Galipolo noted that the influx of cheaper Chinese goods is offsetting potential negative impacts on Brazil's current account deficit and inflation [2] - Disinflation and deflation are viewed as signs of weakening demand, which can discourage investment and spending, potentially harming economic growth [3] Trade Dynamics - China's industrial oversupply, resulting from a shift in investment from property construction to manufacturing, has led to factories producing more than domestic demand [3][4] - The trend of lower-priced imports from China helps restrain inflation in Brazil, allowing the central bank to maintain stable interest rates, but it also poses challenges for local manufacturers who struggle to compete on price [4] Policy Response - In response to the influx of low-cost imports, Brazil introduced the "blouse tax" in 2024, which imposes a 20% tax on international purchases under US$50, along with a state value-added tax of about 17% [5] - The government aims to level the playing field for domestic retailers and increase revenue, although critics argue it may make online goods unaffordable for low-income consumers [5][6] E-commerce Adaptation - Major e-commerce firms, such as Shopee, have had to adapt to the new tax regime by building distribution centers in Brazil and sourcing most of their sales from local sellers [6]

November 28, 2025 01:33 AM GMT Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Chetan Ahya 亚洲首席经济学家 Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 亚洲经济 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：中国⸺资本支出在收 缩，下一步如何演变？ 中国的资本支出正在广泛收缩，引发投资者关注。投资和出 口动能是影响通缩前景的关键因素。我们强调三种可能的演 变情境。 要点 在本报告中，我们讨论中国名义FAI放缓的原因、其未来走ⲡ，以及这些变将如 何影响我们对通缩的看法。 Exhibit 1: 中国名义固定资产投资(FAI) 正在收缩⋯⋯ China nominal FAI %Y 3MMA %Y Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24 Oct-24 Apr-25 Oct-25 9% 5% 1% -3% -7% -11% -15% -11.2% 18% 14% 10% I (%Y 3MMA) Real estate (14%) Infrastructure (30%) Manufacturing ( ...

Beijing’s campaign to rein in price wars and blunt deflation has done little to lift third-quarter earnings, leaving investors short on catalysts https://t.co/fwdfmvtHP8 ...

No Deflation EnjoyooorsSTAND UP! https://t.co/CgHHq2aFOCEasy (@EasyEatsBodega):I did the research.The biggest issue here tho is that the ballon has to appear “deformed” or taken out of the parade due to the deflationNone of that has happened with these incidents.The chance is near 0.Cold weather is the biggest factor and it will be between 36 https://t.co/sYAEStOOKg ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Asia Pacific economic outlook, particularly the transition from technology-driven growth to a broader recovery encompassing non-tech sectors [3][5][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **External Demand Recovery**: Easing trade tensions and recovering US domestic demand are expected to support external demand recovery, particularly benefiting non-tech exports [5][20]. 2. **US GDP Growth Forecast**: The US real GDP growth is forecasted to recover from -0.2% in Q4 2025 to 2.1% in Q4 2026, indicating a positive trend [6]. 3. **Asia's GDP Growth**: Asia's real GDP growth is projected to increase from 4.3% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, with specific country forecasts showing varied growth rates [10][12]. 4. **Nominal GDP Growth**: Asia ex China's nominal GDP growth is expected to accelerate, while China's nominal GDP growth is anticipated to recover modestly but remain subdued [14][16]. 5. **Exports Performance**: Asia's tech exports have been strong, but non-tech exports have remained flat since Q4 2024, indicating a need for diversification in export strategies [17][20]. 6. **Capex Momentum**: An expected recovery in non-tech exports and earlier rate cuts are anticipated to revive capital expenditure (capex) momentum, with gross fixed investment projected to grow from 2.0% in Q3 2025 to 4.4% in Q4 2026 [24][25]. 7. **Labor Market Conditions**: A turnaround in exports and capex is expected to improve labor market conditions and discretionary consumption, which have been negatively impacted by weaker labor markets and higher real rates [27]. 8. **China's Economic Outlook**: Deflationary pressures in China are expected to ease, with a clear exit from deflation projected for 2027, supported by infrastructure investments and a recovery in non-tech exports [31][32]. 9. **India's Economic Growth**: India is forecasted to have the strongest nominal GDP growth in Asia, with a projected growth rate of 12.0% in 2026, driven by various easing measures and a potential trade deal with the US [36][39][40]. 10. **Japan's Fiscal Policy**: Japan's expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support a gradual rise in core CPI, with fiscal concerns likely overplayed due to a healthy starting point of the fiscal deficit [41][45]. Additional Important Insights - **Risks to Outlook**: Potential risks include a mild recession in the US affecting Asia's non-tech exports and the possibility of accelerated rebalancing efforts in China leading to better nominal GDP growth outcomes [47]. - **Inflation and Rate Cuts**: The outlook suggests more room for central banks to cut rates than what the market is currently pricing, with inflation forecasts being lower than consensus due to persistent disinflationary pressures from China [46]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts presented during the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook for the Asia Pacific region and specific countries within it.

I did the research.The biggest issue here tho is that the ballon has to appear “deformed” or taken out of the parade due to the deflationNone of that has happened with these incidents.The chance is near 0.Cold weather is the biggest factor and it will be between 36 and 40 degrees tomorrow in NYC.I like the “no” for deflated balloon in the parade.Easy (@EasyEatsBodega):PLEASE QUICKSOMEONE GIVE ME THE # OF DEFLATIONS PER MACYS DAY PARADE OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS. https://t.co/gDlENR4H3G ...