Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the weekly change rate of the "total heat" indicator for broad-based indices. It selects the index with the highest heat change rate for investment, while staying out of the market if the "Other" group has the highest rate[7][13][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Other"). 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-period moving average (MA2). 3. On the last trading day of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash. **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of capturing short-term market sentiment shifts based on heat changes[13][16] - **Model Name**: Concept Heat TOP and BOTTOM Portfolios **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies the hottest concepts each week and constructs two portfolios based on the highest and lowest heat stocks within these concepts[30][32][34] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select the top 5 concepts with the largest weekly heat change rates. 2. Exclude the bottom 20% of stocks in terms of market capitalization within the selected concepts. 3. Construct the "TOP" portfolio by equally weighting the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each concept. 4. Construct the "BOTTOM" portfolio by equally weighting the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each concept. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures behavioral biases in concept-driven markets, where low-heat stocks in hot concepts tend to generate excess returns over time[30][32][34] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 8.74% - Maximum Drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 YTD Return: 14.7%[16] - **Concept Heat BOTTOM Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 15.71% - Maximum Drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 YTD Return: 25.5%[34] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Heat Indicator **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates the browsing, watchlist, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market, and scaled by 10,000[7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat score. The range of the indicator is [0, 10,000][7] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor serves as a proxy for market sentiment and attention, effectively capturing behavioral patterns such as overpricing or underreaction at the stock level[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Total Heat Indicator**: - No specific backtesting results provided for this factor in isolation

Market Overview - On July 15, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index barely holding above 3500 points, closing down 0.42% at 3505.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 10744.56 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% to 2235.05 points [2] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets reached 16,350 billion yuan, an increase of 1,541 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] AI Industry Chain - The AI sector saw a collective surge, particularly in ERP concepts and AI hardware, with companies like Dingjie Zhizhi and Yonyou Network hitting the daily limit [3] - Newyi Sheng announced a significant profit forecast for the first half of the year, expecting a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 327.68% to 385.47% [3] - Nvidia's announcement regarding the resubmission of its H20 GPU sales application and the introduction of a new RTX PRO GPU compatible with China further fueled the AI sector's momentum [3][4] Real Estate and Urbanization - The real estate and new urbanization sectors experienced a notable rally, with stocks like Tianbao Infrastructure and China New Group hitting the daily limit [5] - The Central Urban Work Conference highlighted a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urban development [6] - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated a continued decline in housing prices across major cities, with first-tier cities seeing a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [6] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the market is expected to find structural highlights as the macro environment stabilizes, with a focus on sectors like steel, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals during the traditional high-performance window from July to August [7] - Zheshang Securities noted that the current market sentiment is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a "bullish divergence" pattern, suggesting limited downside potential even if a correction occurs [7]

周二的大盘一开盘就显得有些垂头丧气，一路下探，不少空仓观望的股民心里直打鼓：是不是要等来机 会了？可就在踏空的股民窃喜时，大盘又悄然反弹，跌幅逐渐收窄，像是在说："别急，好戏才刚开始 呢。" 这种"急跌慢涨"的节奏，老股民们再熟悉不过了。它就像一场暴风雨前的宁静，或是猛兽扑食前的潜 伏。真正懂行的人知道，这往往是大行情启动前的信号。市场正在悄悄洗牌，把意志不坚定的投资者震 出局，留下的是有耐心、有眼光的玩家。 一旦某个关键点位被轻松突破，市场的热度就会像被点燃的火药桶一样爆发。到时候，那些之前犹豫不 决、怕高不敢进的踏空者，恐怕再也坐不住了，纷纷跑步入场，结果可能就是——替人抬轿子去了。所 以，眼下最需要的，不是冲动，而是耐心。 先来看下对下一个交易日有预判作用的"神器"——中信期货在股指期货上的增减持情况。它在沪深300 股指期货上多单方面减仓2419手，空单方面减仓3665手，给出了"偏多"的信号——预判失误。 | | | 多头焦合排序 | | | | 空外流合排序 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排序 | 机构名称 | 念車 ...

截至7月15日收盘，英伟达概念上涨2.02%，位居概念板块涨幅第5，板块内，45股上涨，中电港涨停， 胜宏科技、一品红、天孚通信等涨幅居前，分别上涨13.65%、13.19%、11.97%。跌幅居前的有鸿博股 份、掌趣科技、晶丰明源等，分别下跌3.96%、1.91%、1.52%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国AI 50 | 3.91 | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | -3.55 | | ERP概念 | 3.35 | 硅能源 | -2.85 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 2.39 | POE胶膜 | -2.39 | | F5G概念 | 2.25 | 农村电商 | -2.37 | | 英伟达概念 | 2.02 | 煤炭概念 | -2.36 | | 华为盘古 | 1.92 | 赛马概念 | -2.24 | | 液冷服务器 | 1.90 | 超超临界发电 | -2.22 | | 同花顺果指数 | 1.85 | 光热发电 | -2.21 | | AI PC | 1.72 | 有机硅概念 | ...

资金流入比率方面，华工科技、光迅科技、震有科技等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 9.33%、9.13%、8.80%。（数据宝） F5G概念资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 002281 | 光迅科 技 | 4.41 | 7.86 | 27215.85 | 9.13 | | 000988 | 华工科 技 | 5.07 | 5.60 | 25135.73 | 9.33 | | 300570 | 太辰光 | 8.96 | 15.98 | 17280.05 | 5.35 | | 301183 | 东田微 | 13.92 | 43.69 | 14224.28 | 8.16 | | 300548 | 长芯博 创 | 3.19 | 14.02 | 11403.33 | 3.87 | | 603083 | 剑桥科 技 | 1.52 | 23.75 | 10903.95 | 3.42 | | 002792 ...

截至7月15日收盘，华为盘古概念上涨1.92%，位居概念板块涨幅第6，板块内，20股上涨，泛微网络、 云鼎科技等涨停，赛意信息、先进数通、易点天下等涨幅居前，分别上涨8.22%、4.46%、4.38%。跌幅 居前的有北信源、博彦科技、阳光诺和等，分别下跌2.29%、1.76%、1.61%。 能 | 603039 | 泛微网 | 10.00 | 2.14 | 5491.64 | 17.44 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 络 | | | | | | 300541 | 先进数 | 4.46 | 21.93 | 4234.17 | 2.92 | | | 通 | | | | | | | 润达医 | | | | | | 603108 | 疗 | 3.43 | 6.02 | 3519.34 | 5.66 | | 300248 | 新开普 | 3.56 | 13.62 | 2929.67 | 3.33 | | 300182 | 捷成股 | 0.55 | 3.24 | 826.42 | 2.06 | | | 份 | | | | | | 300168 | 万达信 | -0 ...

截至7月15日收盘，ERP概念上涨3.35%，位居概念板块涨幅第2，板块内，24股上涨，鼎捷数智20%涨 停，云鼎科技、用友网络等涨停，致远互联、普联软件、汉得信息等涨幅居前，分别上涨10.85%、 10.82%、8.98%。跌幅居前的有长荣股份、浙商中拓、航天信息等，分别下跌1.88%、1.66%、1.31%。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 600588 | 用友网 络 | 9.98 | 4.94 | 62120.44 | 26.47 | | 300170 | 汉得信 息 | 8.98 | 17.98 | 51645.73 | 16.78 | | 300378 | 鼎捷数 智 | 20.00 | 16.45 | 29178.26 | 15.47 | | 000409 | 云鼎科 技 | 9.98 | 17.27 | 25102.91 | 28.63 | | 300687 | 赛意信 息 | 8.22 ...

资金流入比率方面，用友网络、泛微网络、汉得信息等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 26.47%、17.44%、16.78%。（数据宝） 财税数字化概念资金流入榜 截至7月15日收盘，财税数字化概念上涨1.65%，位居概念板块涨幅第10，板块内，40股上涨，税友股 份、泛微网络、用友网络等涨停，致远互联、普联软件、汉得信息等涨幅居前，分别上涨10.85%、 10.82%、8.98%。跌幅居前的有北信源、*ST天喻、东港股份等，分别下跌2.29%、2.17%、1.99%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国AI 50 | 3.91 | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | -3.55 | | ERP概念 | 3.35 | 硅能源 | -2.85 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 2.39 | POE胶膜 | -2.39 | | F5G概念 | 2.25 | 农村电商 | -2.37 | | 英伟达概念 | 2.02 | 煤炭概念 | -2.36 | | 华为盘古 | 1.92 | 赛马概念 | -2 ...

截至7月15日收盘，果指数概念上涨1.85%，位居概念板块涨幅第8，板块内，14股上涨，鹏鼎控股涨 停，东山精密、蓝特光学、工业富联等涨幅居前，分别上涨9.70%、5.24%、5.13%。跌幅居前的有珠海 冠宇、京东方A、安洁科技等，分别下跌2.56%、1.98%、1.54%。 同花顺果指数概念资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 002938 | 鹏鼎控 股 | 10.01 | 3.58 | 30285.18 | 8.56 | | 002475 | 立讯精 密 | 4.02 | 2.01 | 19391.79 | 3.67 | | 002600 | 领益智 造 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 7467.46 | 6.31 | | 601138 | 工业富 联 | 5.13 | 1.39 | 6987.45 | 0.94 | | 300115 | 长盈精 密 | 1.25 | 3.33 | 5017 ...

截至7月15日收盘，液冷服务器概念上涨1.90%，位居概念板块涨幅第7，板块内，63股上涨，博汇股份 20%涨停，利欧股份涨停，方盛股份、润泽科技、欧陆通等涨幅居前，分别上涨10.31%、9.49%、 9.26%。跌幅居前的有龙蟠科技、双良节能、江苏雷利等，分别下跌6.08%、5.02%、2.27%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国AI 50 | 3.91 | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | -3.55 | | ERP概念 | 3.35 | 硅能源 | -2.85 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 2.39 | POE胶膜 | -2.39 | | F5G概念 | 2.25 | 农村电商 | -2.37 | | 英伟达概念 | 2.02 | 煤炭概念 | -2.36 | | 华为盘古 | 1.92 | 赛马概念 | -2.24 | | 液冷服务器 | 1.90 | 超超临界发电 | -2.22 | | 同花顺果指数 | 1.85 | 光热发电 | -2.21 | | AI PC | 1.72 ...