Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's US Nov 1-year inflation expectations rose unexpectedly to +4.7%, surpassing the expected +4.6% [1] - The Nov 5-10 year inflation expectations decreased to +3.6%, below the anticipated +3.8% [1] - The US Nov consumer sentiment index fell by -3.3 to a nearly 3.5-year low of 50.3, weaker than the expected 53.0 [1] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes initially declined but recovered later, closing mixed as Senate Democrats proposed a one-year extension of health care subsidies [3] - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.13%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index up +0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell -0.28% [4] - Semiconductor stocks faced pressure, contributing to broader market weakness, with significant job cuts announced by US companies [2] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season showed strong results, with 81% of S&P 500 companies beating forecasts, indicating the best quarter since 2021 [8] - Q3 profits are projected to rise by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is expected to slow to +5.9% y/y [8] International Trade - China's October exports unexpectedly fell -1.1% y/y, the largest decline in 8 months, while imports rose +1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations [5] Government and Monetary Policy - The US government shutdown, now the longest in history, is impacting market sentiment and the economy, with a 66% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [6] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's comments on interest rates being "somewhat restrictive" have contributed to a cautious market outlook [2][11] Notable Company Movements - Globus Medical (GMED) shares rose over +35% after reporting Q3 net sales of $769 million, exceeding expectations [13] - Expedia Group (EXPE) closed up more than +17% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $7.57, significantly above consensus [13] - Microchip Technology (MCHP) shares fell over -5% after forecasting weaker-than-expected Q3 net sales [16]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer sentiment has declined to its lowest level in over three years, with a preliminary reading of 50.3 for November, significantly below the expected 53.2 [1][2] - The decline in consumer sentiment is attributed to concerns over the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown, with a notable 6% drop in sentiment this month [3] Consumer Sentiment Breakdown - The decline in sentiment was widespread across demographics, including age, income, and political affiliation, with the exception of consumers in the top tercile of stock holdings, who saw an 11% increase in sentiment [5] - Current personal finances saw a 17% drop, while expectations for business conditions a year ahead fell by 11% [3] Inflation Expectations - Consumers' expectations for inflation increased slightly from 4.6% to 4.7%, although this remains lower than earlier readings [5] - Longer-term inflation expectations decreased from 3.9% to 3.6%, now below the midpoint of previous year's readings and the peak in April 2025 [6] Economic Context - Recent inflation trends have been influenced by rising tariffs, with the September consumer price index showing inflation at 3%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [7] - The Federal Reserve is focused on maintaining longer-term inflation expectations near its target as it considers interest rate adjustments [10]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) fell to a 1-week low, finishing down by -0.15% due to pressure from rising US job cuts and declining consumer sentiment [1] - US job cuts in October surged by 175% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in 22 years, which supports the outlook for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates [1] - The University of Michigan's US November consumer sentiment index dropped to a nearly 3.5-year low of 50.3, falling more than expected from 53.0 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The ongoing US government shutdown is exerting additional pressure on the dollar, with potential negative impacts on the US economy and increased likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts [2] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated that interest rates are still "somewhat restrictive" and suggested a cautious approach to further rate cuts as the Fed approaches the neutral rate [5] - Markets are pricing in a 67% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [5] Group 3: Inflation Expectations and Consumer Credit - Mixed news on inflation expectations, with the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations unexpectedly rising to +4.7%, while the 5-10 year expectations eased to +3.6% [4] - US consumer credit in September increased by +$13.093 billion, surpassing expectations of +$10.230 billion [4] Group 4: Euro Performance - The euro (EUR/USD) rallied to a 1-week high, finishing up by +0.15% due to a weaker dollar and better-than-expected German trade data [6] - German September exports and imports rose more than anticipated, contributing to the euro's strength [6] - Central bank divergence is supporting the euro, as the ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement several more rate cuts by the end of 2026 [6]

Consumer Sentiment - U.S. consumer sentiment declined significantly in November, with the University of Michigan's preliminary reading at 50.3, down from 53.6 the previous month and below the estimated 53.0, indicating growing consumer pessimism [2][10] - The sub-indices showed a decrease in current conditions to 52.3 from 58.6, missing the estimate of 59.2, while consumer expectations fell to 49.0 from 50.3, also below the forecast [3][10] Inflation Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations for the next year increased slightly to 4.7% from 4.6%, exceeding the previous estimate of 4.6% [4][10] - In contrast, longer-term inflation expectations for five years decreased to 3.6% from 3.9%, falling short of the 3.8% estimate, suggesting a potential moderation in inflation over a longer horizon [5][10] Market Reaction - Following the release of the disappointing consumer sentiment data, major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 173.93 points (0.75%), the Dow Jones down 210.30 points (0.45%), and the S&P 500 down 33.09 points (0.49%) [6][10] Corporate News - UBS raised its price target for AbbVie (ABBV) to $220 from $195, coinciding with the peak week of Q3 earnings season, where over 2,700 companies are scheduled to report [7][10]

Core Insights - The narrative of investors fleeing the dollar due to fears of currency debasement is contradicted by actual market data, particularly in the bond and foreign exchange markets [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals have seen significant gains this year, with gold increasing by 50%, while silver and platinum have experienced even larger increases [2]. - Despite the rise in precious metals, the bond market shows stability, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.93%, its lowest level in over a year, and down nearly 60 basis points for the year [4]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate, indicating long-term inflation expectations, dropped to 2.275%, the lowest since June, while the 30-year TIPS breakeven rate reached 2.21%, its lowest since May [5]. Group 3: Currency Stability - The U.S. dollar, despite a poor first-half performance in 2025, has remained stable since April, with the dollar index ending last week close to its six-month average and outperforming G10 currency peers over the past month [5].

Summary of PBOC Q3 Surveys Industry Overview - The report focuses on the banking and financial sector in China, specifically the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its quarterly surveys of bank loan officers, enterprises, and urban depositors [1][3]. Key Findings 1. **Loan Demand and Approval** - Loan demand increased slightly in Q3 2025, with the index rising to 58.0 from 56.2 in Q2 2025 [6] - Loan approval index remained stable at 53.9 in both Q3 and Q2 2025 [6] - Bankers anticipate a slightly less accommodative monetary policy in the next quarter, with the sentiment index dropping to 73.5 from 75.5 [6] 2. **Business Conditions** - The business conditions index for enterprises improved to 50.1 in Q3 2025 from 49.3 in Q2 2025, indicating a marginal recovery [9] - Export orders index rose to 44.7 from 43.2, while domestic orders remained unchanged [9] - Price indices for raw materials and sales increased, suggesting inflationary pressures [9] 3. **Urban Depositors' Sentiment** - Urban depositors reported a decline in inflation expectations and employment sentiment, with the net share expecting rising property prices slightly decreasing to -13.6% from -13.5% [6][9] - The willingness to consume decreased to 19.9% from 22.4%, while the desire to invest rose to 18.7% from 13.5% [9] - The share of households wanting to save more decreased from 64.1% to 61.2%, likely influenced by a recent stock market rally [9] Additional Insights - The surveys included responses from 5,000 enterprises and 20,000 urban depositors across 50 cities, providing a comprehensive view of economic sentiment [3] - The mixed signals from the surveys indicate a cautious optimism in loan demand and business conditions, but persistent bearish sentiment in the property market and consumer spending [1][9] Conclusion - The PBOC's Q3 surveys reflect a complex economic landscape in China, with slight improvements in loan demand and business conditions, but ongoing challenges in consumer sentiment and property market expectations [1][9]

Market Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is set to be released at 8:30 AM Eastern, which is expected to significantly influence monetary policy expectations and could lead to market volatility if it deviates from forecasts [1] - Updated readings on Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs for October will be released at 9:45 AM Eastern, providing insights into economic momentum following the Federal Reserve's policy stance [2] SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY opens at 673.75, with potential upward movement towards 675.00, 676.20, and possibly 677.40 if bullish momentum continues [4] - If SPY falls below 673.75, it may decline to 672.45, with further downside risks reaching 671.15 and 669.95 [5] Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) - QQQ starts at 613.75, with upward targets at 614.90, 616.05, and 617.20 if bullish sentiment prevails [6] - A drop below 613.75 could lead to declines towards 612.50 and 611.30, with further weakness potentially reaching 610.10 [7] Apple Inc. (AAPL) - AAPL opens at 260.50, with potential upward movement towards 261.45, 262.40, and 263.35 if the stock holds above its recent higher base [8] - If AAPL slips below 260.50, it may decline to 259.55, with further downside risks reaching 258.60 and 257.65 [9] Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - MSFT begins at 521.75, with upward targets at 522.95, 524.20, and 525.40 if bullish momentum continues [10] - A break below 521.75 could lead to declines towards 520.55 and 519.35, with heavier downside risks reaching 518.10 [11] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVDA opens at 183.25, with potential upward movement towards 184.30, 185.35, and 186.40 if accumulation continues [12] - If NVDA loses 183.25, it may decline to 182.20, with further downside risks reaching 181.15 and 180.10 [13] Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) - GOOGL starts at 256.25, with upward targets at 257.20, 258.15, and 259.10 if the stock maintains its positive tone [14] - A failure to hold above 256.25 could lead to declines towards 255.25 and 254.20, with deeper selling risks reaching 253.15 [15] Meta Platforms Inc (META) - META opens at 737.50, with potential upward movement towards 739.70, 741.85, and 744.00 if bullish sentiment remains strong [16] - If META falls below 737.50, it may decline to 735.35, with further downside risks reaching 733.20 and 731.10 [17] Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - TSLA begins at 446.25, with upward targets at 447.85, 449.45, and 451.00 if buyers build a firmer base [18] - A drop below 446.25 could lead to declines towards 444.65 and 443.05, with heavier downside risks reaching 441.50 [19]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.07% and is just below a one-week high, supported by a rise in US existing home sales to a 7-month high of 4.06 million, reflecting a +1.5% month-over-month increase [1][2] - Higher T-note yields have strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials, while weakness in the yen has also benefited the dollar as it fell to a 1.5-week low [1][6] - The ongoing US government shutdown is limiting dollar gains, with potential implications for the US economy and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Euro and Consumer Confidence - The EUR/USD pair is up by +0.01%, recovering from overnight losses due to an unexpected rise in the Eurozone's October consumer confidence indicator to an 8-month high of -14.2, which was stronger than expectations [4][5] - Central bank divergence is supporting the euro, as the Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates while the ECB nears the end of its rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - December COMEX gold is up by +89.00 (+2.19%) and December COMEX silver is up by +1.114 (+2.34%), rebounding after two days of losses [7] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to sanctions on Russian oil producers, which have led to a surge in crude prices and increased inflation expectations, boosting demand for gold and silver as hedges against inflation [7]

Inflation Outlook - Inflation is not generalized, with much of it concentrated in services, unrelated to tariffs [1] - One-time price adjustments are not inflationary and lead to spending adjustments elsewhere [1] - Inflation expectations are well-anchored [2] Pricing Strategies - Exporters are lowering prices [2] - Corporate America has room to absorb costs [2]

Economic Data - The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for October showed a top-line figure of 55, slightly down from 55.1 in September, but above the expected 54.2 [2][3] - Current expectations increased to 61 from 60.4, indicating a stable confidence in the present economy, while future expectations declined to 51.2 from 51.7, reflecting a more pessimistic outlook [3] - Inflation expectations remained stable, with consumers anticipating a 4.6% rise over the next year and 3.7% over the next five years [4] Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market opened with the Dow up by 0.59%, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 also showed positive movements [5] - Strong earnings reports from companies like Delta, PepsiCo, and Levi Strauss contributed to a positive sentiment, with Delta benefiting from premium seat revenue and higher airfares, PepsiCo seeing increased volume, and Levi Strauss leveraging e-commerce and price hikes [6] Market Sentiment - Despite positive earnings reports, there was a tepid mood among tech stocks, particularly following news of a potential cyberattack affecting enterprises using certain Oracle software [6][7]