In a new essay, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Qashqari says he sees two more rate cuts coming from the central bank this year. Steve Leeman uh joins uh us now with Mr. . Qashqari.Hey, Steve. And hey, Neil. >> Good morning.>> Thank you, Joe. Let's bring in Mr. . Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.Neil, let's talk about your um essay this morning, which is fascinating. And I just want to ask you uh first about one of the things that you say in your piece, which is that you're concerned that there cou ...

Fed Independence & Political Influence - The removal of a Fed governor based on accusations poses a significant threat to the Fed's independence [1][3] - Such a removal could set a precedent, allowing political influence to sway interest rate decisions away from the Fed's dual mandate [3][6] - Administrations typically favor lower interest rates, potentially leading to policies misaligned with maximum employment and price stability [6] Market Reaction & Economic Implications - Markets may not immediately react to the issue but could respond negatively if a governor is removed from the FOMC [4][6] - Political influence on interest rates could introduce inflation and risk premiums in the long-term bond market [7] - A Fed perceived as politically influenced could lead to higher premiums on long bond yields, counteracting the goal of lower long-term interest rates [7]

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with a 97-98% probability for a 25 basis point cut, and the market is curious about the dot plot indicating the endpoint of the rate-cutting cycle [4][5][12] - The yield curve remains flat, with a ten-year rate at 4.03% and a three-month rate at 3.97%, leading to questions about the attractiveness of long-term bonds [6][14] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting is anticipated to influence interest rate differentials, potentially strengthening the yen if the BOJ commits to future rate hikes [7][8] 分组2 - Nvidia faces challenges as China restricts chip sales, which could negatively impact its stock and the broader market due to its significant weighting in the S&P 500 [9][10] - The current tech market shows high concentration risk, with a significant portion of the S&P 500 being driven by a few large tech stocks, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trend [26][28] - The healthcare sector is viewed as undervalued, with companies like UnitedHealthcare and Zoetis being highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential [57][59][61] 分组3 - The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding valuation metrics specific to different sectors, as well as the need for a long-term investment perspective [63][66] - Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term themes and growth opportunities, particularly in sectors that may be overlooked due to current market trends [66][70] - The market is characterized by confusion and volatility, with mechanical factors influencing price movements more than fundamental data [75][79]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with a 97-98% probability for a 25 basis point cut, and the market is curious about the dot plot indicating the endpoint of the rate-cutting cycle [4][5][12] - The yield curve remains flat, with a ten-year rate at 4.03% and a three-month rate at 3.97%, leading to questions about the attractiveness of long-term bonds [6][14] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting is anticipated to influence interest rate differentials, potentially strengthening the yen if the BOJ commits to future rate hikes [7][8] 分组2 - Nvidia faces challenges as China restricts chip sales, which could negatively impact its stock and the broader market due to its significant weighting in the S&P 500 [9][10][29] - The current tech market shows high concentration risk, with a significant portion of the S&P 500 being driven by a few large tech stocks, making it a "broken index" [26][28] - The healthcare sector is viewed as undervalued, with companies like UnitedHealthcare and Zoetis being highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential [57][59][61] 分组3 - The tech sector is experiencing volatility, with stocks like Alphabet reaching historically high valuations, prompting profit-taking considerations [53][54] - Long-term investment strategies are emphasized, with caution advised against chasing high valuations in tech stocks, as historical precedents show that such stocks can take years to recover after a market correction [40][41][42] - The importance of understanding sector-specific metrics for valuation is highlighted, as different sectors require tailored approaches to assess their investment potential [63][66]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a complex situation characterized by high inflation driven by supply shocks, particularly tariffs, while simultaneously observing weakening economic indicators, leading to a challenging decision-making environment regarding interest rate adjustments [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Inflation is currently above the Fed's target, especially on a core level, indicating potential future inflationary pressures [2][4]. - Employment numbers are showing signs of weakness, complicating the Fed's response to inflation [2][5]. - The economy is experiencing a stackflation scenario where both inflation and economic weakness are present [2][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Fed is concerned about inflation expectations and their stability, which could influence their decision-making regarding rate cuts [4][10]. - There is a reluctance to cut rates quickly due to fears that inflation expectations may rise and become anchored at higher levels [5][6]. - The Fed's independence is under scrutiny, particularly with political pressures that could lead to easier monetary policy in the future [7][8]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical examples from countries like Turkey and Argentina illustrate the risks associated with compromised central bank independence, leading to high inflation and interest rates [9][10]. - The current situation mirrors past instances where central bank independence was challenged, raising concerns about the Fed's ability to manage inflation expectations effectively [9][10].

LIVE Dow Set to Open Up as Market Focuses on the Fed The Fed is widely expected to resume cutting interest rates, with markets pricing in a 25 basis-point rate reduction, LSEG data show. However, a larger 50 basis-point reduction looks unlikely and Danske Bank analysts said they expect "a more gradual rate-cutting cycle rather than back-to-back cuts." They cited Friday's University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for September, which showed one- year inflation expectations remained elevated at 4.8% ...

Currency Market - The euro rose by +0.03% after hawkish comments from ECB officials, indicating a potential end to the rate-cut cycle, contrasting with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The dollar index increased by +0.04% due to higher T-note yields, but fell back after a decline in consumer sentiment [5] - USD/JPY rose by +0.22% as political uncertainty in Japan and a commitment from US and Japanese officials to let markets determine currency rates reduced safe-haven demand for the yen [7][9] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations remained at +4.8%, while 5-10 year expectations rose unexpectedly to +3.9% [3] - The consumer sentiment index fell to a 4-month low of 55.4, indicating weaker consumer confidence than expected [3] Precious Metals - December gold closed up +0.35%, and silver rose +1.62%, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by central bank purchases, with China's PBOC increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [11] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12]

Meanwhile, a new op-ed in the Wall Street Journal out today. Our next guest saying the assault on the Fed's independence should concern everyone. Former Federal Reserve vice chair and Princeton professor Alan Blinder joins us now to discuss his piece as well as this morning's inflation print.So, I know we've had you on before, Alan, and and you and you've been worried about what the president's doing with Lisa Cook and sort of jaw boning around Fed Chair Powell, but is there any real evidence that the Fed i ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)** and its independence, particularly in the context of political interference from the **Trump administration**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Political Interference in the Fed**: President Trump has attempted to exert control over the Fed by firing Governor Lisa Cook, marking a significant political intervention in the Fed's operations, which traditionally operates independently [2][3][4][9]. 2. **Implications of Rate Cuts**: The Fed may begin cutting interest rates soon, potentially influenced by political pressures. This could lead to more significant or rapid rate cuts than would occur under normal circumstances [2][13]. 3. **Inflation Expectations**: Increased political intervention could raise medium- to long-term inflation expectations, which may lead to currency depreciation and instability in global financial markets [2][13][14]. 4. **Historical Context**: The document emphasizes that government involvement in monetary policy has historically led to accelerated inflation and worsened living conditions, underscoring the importance of central bank independence [2][15][17]. 5. **Support for Cook's Removal**: Some members of the Trump administration support Cook's removal, indicating a potential shift in the Fed's decision-making dynamics, especially if additional Trump-nominated governors are confirmed [5][6][9]. 6. **Regional Fed Banks**: The Trump administration is also considering intervening in the personnel decisions of regional Fed bank presidents, which could further influence monetary policy decisions [10][12]. 7. **Criticism from Experts**: Central banking veterans, including former Fed officials, have criticized the Trump administration's actions, warning that such interference could lead to higher inflation and long-term interest rates [15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Legal Challenges**: Cook's attorney plans to file a lawsuit against her termination, arguing that Trump lacks the authority to fire her, which could lead to legal complications for the administration [4]. 2. **Market Reactions**: Currently, financial markets do not seem to anticipate significant impacts from political interventions, but this perception may change, leading to capital flight and a decline in asset values [14]. 3. **Future Reappointments**: The next reappointment votes for regional Fed presidents are scheduled for February 2026, and the Trump administration may attempt to influence these decisions to align with its monetary easing agenda [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and implications surrounding the Fed's independence and the potential consequences of political interference in monetary policy.