Chair Powell, there's been some discussion recently of the 1990s. In the 1990s, the committee did two discrete sequences of three quarter point cuts. One in 199596 and one in 1998.And after both of those, the next move in rates was up, not down. With policy now closer to neutral, is it a foregone conclusion that the next move in rates is down or should we think of policy risks as genuinely two-sided from here. >> So, I don't think that um a a rate hike is anybody's base as the next thing is anybody's base c ...

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.The recovery in commercial real estate has been slow and bumpy, much like interest rate policy over the past few years. The two, of course, are ...

Core Insights - Wall Street's macro traders are on track for their best year since 2009, driven by client interest in changing global interest rate policies [1] - Major firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup are projected to generate $165 billion in revenue from trading activities, marking a 10% increase from 2024 [1][2] Revenue Projections - The Group-of-10 rates business is expected to achieve a five-year high in revenue, reaching $40 billion [2] - The overall industry revenue is anticipated to be $162 billion in 2026, only 2% lower than the projected revenue for this year [2] Market Conditions - Central banks are normalizing policy rates and balance sheets, but the level of issuance remains high, suggesting sustained trading activity [3] - Emerging-market macro traders are expected to earn $35 billion, while credit traders are projected to make $27 billion and commodities traders $11 billion [4] Compensation Trends - The compensation pool for fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) is expected to rise by about 3% on average, with rates traders seeing a 7% increase [5] - Stock traders are set to receive a 14% higher payout compared to last year, attributed to strong performance in AI stocks [5]

Asian Markets and Economic Policy - China successfully secured €4 billion through a dual-tranche bond offering, indicating strong engagement in global financial markets [2] - The People's Bank of China injected a net 115 billion yuan into the market via 7-day reverse repos at a stable rate of 1.40%, with the USD/CNY reference rate fixed at 7.0872 [2] - There is an increasing foreign interest in Chinese bonds, as overseas investors are reportedly utilizing a new bond repurchase facility [2] U.S. Economic Indicators and Global Trade - The U.S. labor market showed concerning signs with layoff notices surging to 39,000 in October, a level only surpassed during major economic downturns [4] - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries dipped in September, although Japan significantly increased its purchases during the same period, highlighting differing international investment strategies [5] Precious Metals and Currency Movements - Gold prices strengthened, with XAU/USD climbing above $4,050 amid risk-off trading sentiment, as investors await U.S. economic data for insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [6] - The Malaysian ringgit strengthened against the U.S. dollar, while the NZD/USD fell below 0.5650 in anticipation of a final rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [7] Automotive Sector Developments - The electric vehicle (EV) segment is a significant driver for corporate performance, with Xiaomi reporting strong third-quarter earnings propelled by its EV division, marking positive operating income from these newer business lines [8] - In contrast, Volkswagen is scaling back its EV investment in India while seeking a suitable partner for operations [10] - Toyota is investing $912 million across five U.S. manufacturing plants to boost hybrid vehicle output, part of a larger $10 billion plan over the next five years in the U.S. [10] Geopolitical and Regional Updates - Saudi Arabia secured major defense and nuclear cooperation agreements with the U.S., achieving non-NATO ally status and planning to purchase nearly 300 U.S. tanks [11] - In Australia, stable wage growth was observed in the third quarter, with public sector wages reaching a 12-year high of 3.5%, contributing to an overall annual pay growth of 4.0% [11]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, supported by hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who favors keeping interest rates steady [1] - The dollar is under pressure due to signs of a potential resolution to the US government shutdown, with the Senate passing a temporary continuing resolution [2] - The markets are pricing in a 64% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Euro and ECB Commentary - The EUR/USD rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, driven by hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, who stated that interest rates are "absolutely" in a good place [4] - Central bank divergence is supportive of the euro, as the ECB is seen as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates several more times by the end of 2026 [4] - Schnabel indicated that there is positive momentum in the Eurozone economy and inflation risks are slightly tilted to the upside, with swaps pricing in a 4% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [5]

On Sunday, a group of eight Senate Democrats broke with their party to vote with Republicans to advance a bill to reopen the government. The bill would provide full-year funding for some departments, fund other agencies through January 30, and provide pay for furloughed government workers. The bill will also resume withheld federal payments to states and localities and recall agency employees who were laid off during the shutdown.Also weighing on stocks on Tuesday was a weekly report from ADP that showed US ...

Central Banks and Interest Rates - Central banks in Australia, Sweden, and Brazil are expected to maintain current interest rates, while Mexico may implement a rate cut [1] - The Bank of England (BOE) is likely to hold rates at 4% due to inflation being nearly double its 2% target, with a potential cut not expected until a clear downtrend in inflation is observed, likely by April [2][4] - The BOE's decision to pause rate cuts would end a pattern of reducing rates at every other meeting since August 2024, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve's recent policy loosening [3][5] Economic Data and Forecasts - Recent softer-than-expected economic data has increased uncertainty regarding the BOE's upcoming meeting, with a hold being more likely than a cut [2] - The US Federal Reserve is cautious about further cuts, with upcoming speeches from Fed officials expected to provide insights into the economy and job market amid delayed official data releases due to a government shutdown [6][7] - Private-sector reports are anticipated to show modest increases in employment, with ADP Research projecting a rise in October private employment after previous declines [8] Regional Economic Insights - In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney's upcoming budget is expected to cut operating spending while investing in capital projects, with a projected deficit of at least C$70 billion ($50 billion) [10] - Economists predict continued softness in Canadian job data, following a net loss of 45,900 positions in the third quarter [11] - In Asia, factory activity releases will provide insights into the region's manufacturing amid global trade strains, with key data from China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan being closely monitored [12] Central Bank Meetings and Decisions - Sweden's Riksbank is expected to keep its rate at a three-year low of 1.75%, while the European Central Bank and other regional banks are also anticipated to maintain current rates [18][20] - The Turkish central bank faces challenges with inflation remaining above 2% in October, while Madagascar may lower its key interest rate as inflation slows [23][24] - In Latin America, Brazil's central bank is expected to hold rates at 15%, while Mexico's Banxico is likely to implement a rate cut to 7.25% amid improving inflation conditions [25][29]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen declined against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan maintained interest rates and signaled a potential rate hike depending on wage outlook [1][2] - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, contributing to the dollar's strength [1][3] - Fed funds futures traders adjusted their expectations, now pricing in 71% odds of a rate cut in December, down from 85% prior to Powell's comments [5] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep rates steady disappointed yen bulls, as there was little indication of a timeline for future rate hikes [2] - The dollar index increased by 0.35% to 99.49, reaching its highest level since August 1, while the dollar strengthened 0.98% against the yen to 154.21, the highest since February 13 [5] - The European Central Bank also kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, with no hints about future moves, leading to a decline in the euro [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to resume bond purchases early next year to address emerging liquidity strains among lenders, with potential purchases estimated at around ₹1 lakh crore ($11.3 billion) in the January-March quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Situation - Lenders are experiencing a cash shortage following the RBI's intervention to support the rupee, which has been one of Asia's worst-performing currencies this year [2][3]. - As of October 27, there was a ₹11,360-crore deficit in banking liquidity, a significant drop from a surplus of approximately ₹4 lakh crore in August, influenced by tax outflows and increased cash demand during festivals [3][4]. Group 2: RBI's Actions - The RBI has recently increased short-term cash injections and conducted foreign-exchange swaps to replenish liquidity after its currency-support measures drained cash from the system [4][5]. - The last bond purchase by the RBI occurred in May, totaling ₹5.2 lakh crore over five months leading up to that date [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the RBI will return to bond purchases as a primary tool for ensuring durable liquidity, which would also support the bond market [6]. - The need for liquidity injections may decrease if a US-India trade deal enhances foreign inflows, although the RBI has maintained interest rates for now while indicating potential future easing [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank has decided to maintain its interest rate at 0%, indicating that the current economic outlook and future inflation do not necessitate a shift into negative interest rates [1] Economic Outlook - The decision reflects the Swiss economic outlook, which suggests stability and no immediate need for further monetary easing [1] Inflation Considerations - Future inflation expectations played a significant role in the decision, as the bank assessed that inflation levels do not warrant a reduction in interest rates [1]