Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday following mixed moves on Monday, with major benchmark indices showing lower futures [1] - The U.S. Government shutdown has reached its 34th day, leading to increasing economic consequences [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.08%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58% [2] - Market expectations indicate a 70.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December [2] Stock Performance - Dow Jones fell by 1.02%, S&P 500 decreased by 1.33%, Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.67%, and Russell 2000 declined by 1.81% [2] - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 1.27% at $674.69, and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) declined 1.62% to $621.86 in premarket trading [2] Company Highlights - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) fell 2.22% in premarket ahead of earnings, with expectations of $1.16 per share on revenue of $8.74 billion [6] - Upwork Inc. (UPWK) surged 18.30% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising FY25 guidance [6] - Denny's Corporation (DENN) surged 49.15% after announcing a definitive agreement to be acquired for approximately $620 million [6] - Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) tumbled 7.51% despite strong earnings, influenced by Michael Burry's purchase of put options worth $186.58 million [15] - Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) dropped 2.47% after reporting revenue of $11.2 billion, missing estimates of $13.27 billion [15] Economic Insights - The economic outlook remains mixed, with monetary policy being less predictable and trade risks easing [10] - A new U.S.-China trade truce is seen as beneficial for corporate earnings, but the stock market rally shows signs of structural cracks [11] - There is a growing divergence between price and breadth in the market, raising concerns about a potential false breakout [12]

Market Analysis & Altcoin Performance - Altcoins have been underperforming against Bitcoin since 2021 [2] - Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs recently hit a new low of 029% [3] - Historically, significant alt seasons have only occurred after altcoin/Bitcoin pairs reach 025% [3] - The current altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are at 036% [4] - The analysis suggests altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach 025% [26][27] - An altcoin market cap is expected to be approximately 25% of Bitcoin's market cap [28] Social Interest & Market Cycles - Low social interest in crypto, similar to the period from January 2018 to the end of 2019, contributes to the underperformance of altcoins [7] - The current market cycle is being compared to the 2019 rally, where Bitcoin outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening [11][12][14] - The entire 2019 rally for Bitcoin occurred during quantitative tightening, similar to the current cycle [14] - Bitcoin dominance is breaking through its bull market support band, indicating a likely continued rally [30] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is expected to end quantitative tightening in December [9] - Historically, altcoin/Bitcoin pairs bottomed when quantitative tightening ended, but this did not immediately trigger an alt season [9] - The end of quantitative tightening might lead to a bounce in altcoin/Bitcoin pairs [17] - The analysis suggests that high interest rates and quantitative tightening have contributed to Bitcoin's outperformance and the absence of an alt season [25] Bitcoin Performance & Dominance - Bitcoin is taking liquidity from the altcoin market to maintain its position above $100000, similar to how it took liquidity to stay above $10000 in 2019 [34] - Bitcoin dominance is expected to continue to rise, at least until early December [26] - A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently around $103000, could indicate the end of the cycle [32][33]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday rose +0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) fell -0.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose +0.37%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.09%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose +0.35%. US stocks on Monday saw support from AI optimism after OpenAI bought $38 billion of AI computing power from Amazon.  In M&A deals, Kimberly-Clark announced a $40 billion acquisition of Tylenol-maker Kenvue for stock and cash.  Also, Eaton ...

All right, we got some breaking news from Washington Fed Governor Lisa Cook who is speaking in DC. Steve Leeman has those headlines. Steve.>> Uh, thanks Brian. The Olive for Fed policy continues to be somewhat confusing with Fed officials offering different forecasts from each other and even some officials taking both sides of the argument. Lisa Cook speaking in Washington said she supported the decision to cut rates last week.Uh, but says downside risks to employment are greater than upside risk to inflati ...

(Corrects headline to show Miran says policy too restrictive, rather than not restrictive) By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve officials on Monday continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it, a debate set to intensify ahead of the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting and in the absence of data suspended due to the federal government shutdown. In an appearance on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, Fed Governor Stephen Miran r ...

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said monetary policy remains restrictive and that he will continue to advocate for outsize interest-rate cuts. “The Fed is too restrictive, neutral is quite a ways below where current policy is,” Miran said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Given my rather more sanguine outlook on inflation than some of the other members of the committee, I don’t see a reason for keeping policy as restrictive.” Most Read from Bloomberg WATCH: Federal Reserve Governor ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a debate among its officials regarding the current state of the economy and the associated risks, which is expected to intensify ahead of the upcoming policy meeting due to a lack of new data caused by the federal government shutdown [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Perspectives - Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocates for deeper interest rate cuts, arguing that the buoyant stock and corporate credit markets do not indicate that monetary policy is too loose [2][3] - Miran expressed dissent against the recent decision to cut rates by a quarter percentage point, favoring a half-percentage-point reduction instead [3] - He believes that rising equity prices and narrow corporate credit spreads do not necessarily reflect the stance of monetary policy, especially as interest-sensitive sectors like housing show weakness [4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is cautious about further rate cuts while inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target, with expectations of acceleration through 2025 [5] - Goolsbee, a voting member of the Fed's policy committee, supported the recent rate cut but remains undecided about future cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [6] - The contrasting views of Miran and Goolsbee highlight a significant divide among Fed officials regarding monetary policy direction, despite both having extensive economic backgrounds [6]

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday he's in no hurry to cut interest rates again with inflation still too far above the central bank's 2% target. "I'm not decided going into the December meeting" and "my threshold for cutting is a little bit higher than it was at the last two meetings," Goolsbee said in a Yahoo Finance interview. "I am nervous about the inflation side of the ledger, where you've seen inflation above the target for four a ...

aura token, aura price aura solana, why is aura surging. Photo by BeInCrypto Digital asset investment products saw $360 million in outflows last week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled hesitation on future interest rate cuts. Bitcoin ETFs took the hardest hit, losing $946 million, while Solana attracted a record $421 million in inflows. Powell's Hawkish Stance Rattles Markets Outflows followed comments from Powell indicating another rate cut in December was not assured. He warned that l ...

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time in 2025 last week, though one member of the central bank's monetary policy committee voted against cutting rates, citing concerns over inflation. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which guides the Fed's monetary policy, voted 10-2 in favor of lowering the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. One dissenter, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, called for a larger 50-basis-point cut.The other ...