For more on all of this as well as the markets, let's turn to David Zervos. He's CBC contributor and chief market strategist at Jeffre. David, always great to see you.Um, fantastic to get your perspective because you were at the Fed, correct. You're at a Fed economist at one point in your life, >> many, many years ago. >> Um, is there any reason in your view as a market strategist now to question the methodology of how jobs are calculated that there might be a political >> aspect to it.I mean, I think we al ...

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - US labor market shows warning signs with payrolls tumbling and unemployment rate rising, indicating a deceleration in job gains [1][2] - Concerns mount over a complicated mix for the Federal Reserve to deal with, leading to expectations of potential rate cuts in September and December [2][3] - Slowing services wages suggest a potential slowdown in consumption and the overall economy, justifying lower interest rates even without a formal recession [19] - The economy is structurally sound, but current policy may be suboptimal, with rates disproportionately hurting lower-income households as housing and labor markets slow [9][10] Interest Rate & Monetary Policy - Fed rate cut bets for September have reached nearly 90%, a significant increase from 45% prior to jobs data, with two rate cuts priced in for the year [6] - The Cleveland Fed President acknowledges a tricky time for monetary policy makers due to conflicting mandates, requiring careful data analysis and business conversations [7][8] - The market anticipates bull steepening as the economy slows and the Fed cuts rates, potentially spurring inflation or growth, leading to a V-shaped recovery [12] - Neutral rate is difficult to determine, potentially higher than expected due to shifts in household and business debt structures, allowing for higher interest rates with a robust economy [17][18] Bond Market & Credit Issuance - US high-grade weekly volume reached $12 million, driven by foreign bank sales, while July volume was $81 billion, the lightest month for supply this year [29] - US high-yield July volumes exceeded $35 billion, marking the second busiest month since September 2021 and the busiest since at least 2006 [30] - Leveraged loan launches in July set a record, reaching over $222 billion, the fourth time in 14 months an all-time record has been broken [30] - Private sector holds $225 trillion in cash, exceeding marketable Treasury debt, with only $29 trillion in high-quality bonds, creating a transcendent influence on the market [26][27]

Joining me now is Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. And Beth, if we only had something to talk about this, I mean, it's been a really quiet and quiet morning. Yeah.Were you gobsmacked by these numbers. It was a disappointing report, to be sure. But when I look at the data, we don't try not to make too much of any one individual report. And so we look at the confluence of data. We look at the longer term picture.What we have is a labor market that is showing signs that we should be watching carefully, ha ...

South Africa’s central bank has unilaterally lowered its inflation target, bypassing the finance ministry, which insists it alone holds the authority to set policy https://t.co/ntbs3GexUX ...

In 2020 and 2021 the combination of loose monetary and fiscal policy was often credited for the surge in speculation. That cannot be the explanation today, when trading remains far above what was previously considered normal https://t.co/p9ycM9T1zY ...

The US economy rebounded in the second fiscal quarter of the year, growing at a better thanex expected rate despite President Trump's tariffs. The country's GDP grew at a 3% pace from April to June, reversing a.5 decline from the previous quarter. Consumer spending also rose.But the growth comes despite a sharp decline in imports, which dropped by 30.3%. The Wall Street Journal editorial board called it the weirdest GDP report ever, while President Trump touted the growth as a success. all expectations.They ...

Core Insights - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with increased sales contracts and strong interest in new projects [2][24] - The company signed a total of 52 sales contracts in the first half of 2025, a decrease from 63 in the same period of 2024, with significant contributions from the Luuslangi and Regati projects [2][4] - The average weekly sales ratio reached its highest level in recent years, exceeding 4% in May 2025, indicating a robust market activity [3] Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the company signed 31 sales contracts, compared to 25 in Q1 2025 and 47 in Q2 2024 [2] - The sales revenue for Q2 2025 was EUR 7.388 million, a decrease from EUR 8.546 million in Q2 2024 [5][12] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was EUR 974 thousand, an increase from EUR 443 thousand in Q2 2024 [5][13] Financial Position - Total assets increased by EUR 6.34 million to EUR 95.149 million at the end of Q2 2025, primarily due to the construction of the Regati project [7][11] - Total borrowings rose by EUR 1.856 million to EUR 59.540 million, with new construction loans drawn during the quarter [8] - The balance of cash and cash equivalents decreased by EUR 342 thousand to EUR 9.574 million [7] Market Trends - The number of apartment transactions in Tallinn increased by 6.9% in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, indicating a rise in buyer activity [24] - The stock of unsold ready-to-move-in apartments remained stable at around 1,000 units, suggesting sustained market competition [26] - The average gross wages rose by 7.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, outpacing consumer price inflation, although consumer confidence remained low [23] Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in sales contracts and construction activities in the second half of 2025, supported by new projects added to its portfolio [27][28] - Expectations for continued economic recovery and demand for new residential real estate are present, although dependent on external factors such as interest rates and consumer confidence [28] - The company forecasts a potential revenue of up to EUR 55 million in 2025, with significant revenue generation expected in the second half of the year [31]

US President Donald Trump’s surprise tariff announcement is set to weigh on the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision next week even as a final word on the trade deal is awaited https://t.co/EhJIdNqW0R ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is in a solid position with a low unemployment rate and a labor market at or near maximum employment [1] - Inflation has been running somewhat above the 2% longer-run objective [1][3] - There's also downside risk to the labor market [5] Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged [2] - The current stance of monetary policy is believed to be well-positioned to respond to potential economic developments [2] - The policy rate is characterized as modestly restrictive [3] - Financial conditions are accommodative [4] - The economy is not performing as though restrictive policy were holding it back inappropriately [4] Future Considerations - In coming months, a good amount of data will help inform the assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate [5]

No change. The Federal Reserve holding rates steady in the range of four and a quarter to four and a half percent. But two Federal Reserve governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman dissenting, preferring to cut rates by 25 basis points, underscoring division within this Federal Reserve over the impact of President Trump's tariffs on inflation.This is the first time in 30 years that we have seen two Federal Reserve governors descent simultaneously. Now, there were some changes to the policy statement. Notab ...