Market Volatility & Hedging Strategy - The market exhibits complacency with the VIX around 17%, presenting an opportunity for investors to hedge downside risk relatively inexpensively using out-of-the-money options [2][3] - Buying a 610 put on SPY or 6100 on SPX expiring in August would cost approximately 1% of the portfolio's value, offering significant downside protection [3][6] - Investors can offset the cost of downside protection by selling covered calls, potentially collecting close to 05% of the portfolio's value in the next 30 days [6][7] Trade War Scenarios & Options Plays - In a scenario where the EU and India don't make a deal and retaliate with tariffs, buying out-of-the-money put options is a simple way to hedge against this worst-case scenario [4][5] - If the trade deal deadline is extended, investors can roll out their options to September, continuously harvesting premium by selling upside calls and using the proceeds to buy downside put protection [8][9][10] - If countries capitulate and make a deal, the market is likely to react positively, and investors could consider selling downside puts and using the proceeds to fund buying upside calls for upside participation [11][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - BAD BEAT Investing, led by Quad 7 Capital, emphasizes a strategic approach to trading, focusing on both long and short positions while educating investors on market dynamics and trading proficiency [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Quad 7 Capital consists of a team of 7 analysts with diverse expertise in business, policy, economics, mathematics, game theory, and sciences [1] - The company has been operational for nearly 12 years, gaining recognition for its market predictions, including a notable call in February 2020 to sell everything and go short [1] - Since May 2020, the company has maintained an average position of 95% long and 5% short [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - BAD BEAT Investing focuses on short- and medium-term investments, income generation, special situations, and momentum trades [1] - The company aims to provide in-depth, high-quality research with clear entry and exit targets to save investors time [1] Group 3: Educational Benefits - Investors can learn to understand market fluctuations, execute well-researched trade ideas weekly, and utilize various trading tools through BAD BEAT Investing [2] - The company offers access to 4 chat rooms and daily summaries of key analyst upgrades and downgrades [2] - Educational resources include learning basic options trading to enhance trading skills [2]

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines Holdings Inc is set to report its second-quarter earnings, with analysts expecting a decline in earnings per share and a slight increase in revenue [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts project earnings of $3.86 per share, representing a 6.8% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to reach $15.36 billion, up 2.5% from the same quarter last year [1] Stock Performance and Reactions - Historically, United Airlines has had mixed reactions post-earnings, with the stock rising in two of the last four quarterly reports, including a 12.4% increase in October [2] - The options market is anticipating a significant price swing of 10.8%, which is higher than the average 6.5% movement over the past two years [2] Options Trading Activity - There has been increased put trading activity, with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.17, indicating heightened bearish sentiment compared to 88% of readings from the past year [3] - The current pricing of options contracts is considered reasonable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 52%, ranking in the low 16th percentile of its annual range [4] Stock Performance Year-to-Date - Year-to-date, United Airlines stock is down 10.6%, but it recently broke out above the $85 level, coinciding with its 160-day moving average, marking its fourth consecutive week of gains [5]

Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW) stock is currently trading at $191.11, reflecting a 2% increase and a 13.7% year-over-year gain, following a recent rebound from its lowest level since May 30 [1] - The stock has faced challenges in surpassing its record high of $208.39 from February 19, but recent trends suggest a potential push back toward these highs due to its positioning near a historically bullish trendline [1] Technical Analysis - According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst, PANW is within one standard deviation of its 200-day moving average, having been above this trendline in at least eight of the last ten trading days and spending 80% of the past two months above it [2] - Historical data indicates that similar conditions have led to an 86% success rate for the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 11.7%, suggesting a potential new record of $213.46 could be achieved [2] Market Sentiment - There is a potential for positive momentum as pessimism in the options market appears to be unwinding, indicated by the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.27, which is in the 72nd percentile of readings over the past year [3] - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 32%, placing it in the 5th percentile of its annual range, suggesting that options traders are currently pricing in low volatility expectations, making options an affordable route for potential gains [4]

Group 1 - Kenvue Inc has experienced a leadership change, with CEO Thibaut Mongon being fired and Kirk Perry appointed as interim CEO, marking the second executive shakeup this year [1] - The company replaced its CFO Paul Ruh with Amit Banati in May, indicating ongoing restructuring efforts [1] - Kenvue has warned that tariffs could negatively impact its financial performance by up to $150 million [1] Group 2 - Kenvue's stock has risen by 1.4% to $21.64, aiming for a fourth consecutive win, a streak not seen since late April [2] - The stock price increase has brought shares above the year-to-date breakeven mark, with shares now facing the 100-day moving average [2] - Options trading activity has surged, with 17,000 calls and 4,507 puts exchanged, double the average intraday rate, particularly focusing on November 23 and 24 calls [2] Group 3 - Options traders have shown a bullish sentiment towards Kenvue, with a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 37.42, ranking in the 95th percentile of annual readings [3] - Short-term traders also exhibit a call-bias, as indicated by the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.19, which stands in the 2nd percentile of readings from the past year [3]

Core Insights - Cloudflare Inc (NYSE:NET) has shown resilience by bouncing back near its all-time high breakout and 20-day moving average, indicating potential upward momentum towards a target of 220-strike by July expiration [1] Options Activity - An unwinding of bearish sentiment in the options market could provide positive momentum for NET, as its 50-day put/call volume ratio ranks higher than 72% of readings from the past year [2] - Options are currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 43% in the 14th percentile of its annual range, suggesting lower-than-usual volatility expectations [3] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for NET is at 80 out of 100, indicating that the stock has historically exceeded volatility expectations [3] Investment Recommendation - A recommended September call option has a leverage ratio of 5.2, which could double in value with a 21.6% increase in the underlying equity [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of Quad 7 Capital is to provide investment opportunities through their BAD BEAT Investing platform, emphasizing both long and short trades with a proven track record of success [1] - Quad 7 Capital has maintained an average position of 95% long and 5% short since May 2020, showcasing their strategic approach to market conditions [1] - The team consists of 7 analysts with diverse expertise in business, policy, economics, mathematics, game theory, and sciences, enhancing their research capabilities [1] Group 2 - BAD BEAT Investing offers benefits such as understanding market dynamics, executing well-researched trade ideas weekly, and access to multiple chat rooms for collaboration [2] - Members receive daily summaries of key analyst upgrades and downgrades, which aids in informed decision-making [2] - The platform also provides education on basic options trading and extensive trading tools to enhance investor proficiency [2]

Group 1: Delta Air Lines Inc - Delta Air Lines Inc's stock increased by 12.4%, trading at $56.99, following a top-line beat for Q2 [1] - CEO Ed Bastian indicated that bookings have stabilized after a period of lower demand in spring, and the profit outlook for 2025 has been reinstated [1] - The positive report has had a significant impact on the airline sector as a whole [1] Group 2: American Airlines Group Inc - American Airlines Group Inc's stock rose by 14%, trading at $13.13, reaching its highest level since early March [2] - Despite being down 25% year-to-date, the stock is now 51% above its multi-year low of $8.50 recorded on April 4 [2] - The 200-day moving average is currently acting as a resistance level for the stock's rally [2] Group 3: Options Activity - American Airlines Group Inc saw a surge in call options trading, with 286,000 contracts changing hands, four times the average intraday volume [3] - The most popular call option was the weekly 7/11 12.50-strike call, along with the July 13 call in the standard expiration series [3] Group 4: United Airlines Holdings Inc - United Airlines Holdings Inc's stock increased by 14.2%, trading at $91.57, approaching its highest close since March 4 [5] - The stock is only down 6.5% in 2025 but has risen 92.4% year-over-year, with today's trading surpassing the 160-day moving average [5] - There were 78,000 UAL calls traded, quadrupling the average intraday volume, with the weekly 7/11 87-strike call being the most popular [5] Group 5: Airline Sector Trends - Airline stocks, including Delta, American, and United, are showing a pattern of movement together, indicating a sector-wide trend [6] - These companies have high Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard readings of 99, 93, and 96 out of 100, suggesting they have exceeded options traders' volatility expectations in the past year [6]

Company Overview - Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX) is currently experiencing significant attention in the options market, particularly with the July 18, 2025 $90 Call option showing high implied volatility, indicating potential for a major price movement [1][3] Implied Volatility Insights - Implied volatility reflects market expectations for future stock movement, with high levels suggesting anticipation of a significant price change or an upcoming event that could trigger a rally or sell-off [2] Analyst Sentiment - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) within the Beverages - Soft drinks industry, which is positioned in the bottom 40% of the Zacks Industry Rank. Over the past 60 days, no analysts have raised earnings estimates for the current quarter, while some have lowered their estimates, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $1.12 to $1.07 per share [3] Trading Strategy Implications - The current high implied volatility may indicate a developing trading opportunity. Options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility, aiming to benefit from the decay of the option's value if the underlying stock does not move as much as anticipated [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Tesla Inc (TSLA) is currently down 7.3%, trading at $292.16, and facing a year-to-date deficit of 27.6% [1][5] - Despite the current decline, TSLA shares are up 17.2% year-over-year [5] - The stock is testing its 80-day moving average, indicating potential volatility in the near term [5] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - William Blair downgraded TSLA to "market perform," which may influence investor sentiment [1] - Out of 41 brokerages covering TSLA, 16 maintain "buy" or better ratings, which could be a headwind if more analysts downgrade their ratings [5] Group 3: Options Activity - TSLA has seen significant options activity, with 14,175,441 calls and 11,807,911 puts exchanged in the last 10 sessions, making it the second-most active stock after Nvidia [2][3] - The most popular options contracts during this period were the weekly 6/27 320-strike put and the 330 call [2] Group 4: Volatility and Market Metrics - TSLA's 10-day put/call volume ratio ranks in the 78th percentile of annual readings, indicating growing popularity of puts [7] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for TSLA is at 48%, ranking in the 5th percentile of its annual range, suggesting lower-than-usual volatility expectations [8] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is at 83 out of 100, indicating that TSLA has tended to exceed volatility expectations over the past year [9]