Market Overview - The market is currently focused on potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which have been anticipated for several months [3][7][10] - Despite some concerning macroeconomic data, equities are looking past these issues, indicating a complex relationship between inflation and equity performance [1][5] Inflation and Equities - Inflation pressures are building but are not yet overwhelming, with economists expecting certain trends to emerge in labor market reports [2] - Historically, rising inflation has led to increased equity allocations among households, suggesting that the market is currently responding to positive tailwinds despite headwinds from inflation [5] Seasonal Trends - There are concerns regarding the typical negative seasonality seen in September and October, although the market has reached new highs without significant labor market disruptions [6] - Investors are cautious about potential ripple effects from earlier policy disruptions, which could impact market performance [6] Federal Reserve Expectations - The market is anticipating a rate cut next week, with expectations for additional cuts throughout the year and into 2025 [8][10] - There is a debate among investors about the timing and pace of these cuts, with some suggesting that expectations have been pulled forward [9] Valuation Considerations - Current peak valuation levels necessitate careful consideration of market conditions, as much of the anticipated positive developments may already be priced in [10]

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing positive momentum, which is atypical for September, a month historically known for weak stock performance [6][7][8] - The S&P 500 is having a better than average year, contrary to initial bearish expectations due to tariffs and Fed independence concerns [14][15][16] September Effect - The "September effect" refers to the historical tendency for stocks to perform poorly in September, with an average decline of 2% over the last decade [7][8] - Despite this historical pattern, the expectation of a rate cut on September 17th may lead to a different outcome this year, potentially resulting in a higher market finish [7][10] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with reports indicating a slowdown in hiring activity [20][26] - The Federal Reserve's response to labor market conditions has been criticized as being slow, which may impact future rate cut decisions [19][21] Concentration in the Market - The market is currently highly concentrated, with a few companies driving significant gains, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble [28][29] - However, the profitability and strong balance sheets of these leading companies provide some justification for this concentration [29][30] Consumer Behavior and Retail Performance - Retail companies like Dollar General and Dollar Tree are outperforming major tech stocks, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards value shopping amid inflation [42][43] - The trend suggests that consumers across income brackets are seeking to stretch their dollars further due to rising costs [44] Gold and Cryptocurrency Trends - There is a notable increase in gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a general hedge against dollar debasement [45] - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are also gaining traction as investors look for alternatives to traditional currency [46][48] Future Market Predictions - If the Federal Reserve implements two to three rate cuts by year-end, small-cap stocks may perform well due to their sensitivity to interest rates [51][52] - The ongoing debate about inflation and labor market conditions will influence the Fed's decisions and market performance moving forward [53]

Market Analysis & Predictions - The analysis suggests Ethereum's price is slowly declining from around $4,900 in mid-August [2] - The industry expected Ethereum to rally to all-time highs after reaching the regression band [2] - The report anticipates a rejection of Ethereum's rally to all-time highs, citing the need for Ethereum to durably exceed $5,000 for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin [3] - Seasonality trends indicate that altcoin/Bitcoin pairs often peak around late August [3][4] - The analysis posits that Ethereum is unlikely to break $5,000 in September, aligning with the seasonality of altcoin/Bitcoin pairs [6] - The industry predicted an all-time high for Ethereum in August, followed by a pullback to the 21-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) in September [7] Potential Price Correction - The report suggests a potential 30% drop for Ethereum from its local high to the 21-week EMA, which translates to approximately a 20% drop from current levels [10] - The analysis anticipates Ethereum dropping to the 21-week EMA by late September or early October before rallying back up [11][19] Altcoin Performance - Altcoins bottomed against Ethereum the week of August 18th, coinciding with Ethereum's all-time high [14][15] - Altcoins may rally against Ethereum because Ethereum is expected to drop more significantly to its 21-week EMA compared to altcoins [17][18]

Friday. Joining us this morning is bespoke co co-founder Paul Hickeyi to discuss. Paul, let's get the fall started.Good to have you. Um, talk about September season seasonality and whether or not there are elements that might make this particular round of September maybe a little less than feared. Yes.I mean, September, we all know it's historically a weak time of year uh for the markets overall. Uh, especially look at I mean what we've done the last four months. We're up 1% four months in a row.Um, you kno ...

September seasonality bro's about to ripped a new one. ...

The seasonality aspect is something we talk about post Labor Day a lot because since the 1950s it has been depending on time frame either the worst or one of the worst. If you juxtapose that with all of the market catalyst that we are anticipating for the coming few weeks. Do we think this is a weaker setup that deserves paying more attention to this time around.Uh I think most likely yes. I mean you know why do we have that seasonality. People people go away they go on vacation.They take a few weeks and th ...

💥BREAKING:Jim Cramer says the market in September is normally "weak."SEASONALITY CURSE = BROKEN NOW! https://t.co/JeEtPc2fAz ...

Average $ETH seasonality over the past years! https://t.co/3bqIpHW1WY ...

REMINDER:Bitcoin seasonality tends to be negative in September. https://t.co/y6Ek3RzvQj ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has not reached a new all-time intraday high for six consecutive days, marking its longest streak without a new high since mid-June, closing just 0.32 points below last month's all-time closing high of 6,389.77 [1] - The SPX advanced above the previous all-time high of 6,427 last week, but selling at new highs is not recommended due to the frequency of such occurrences since the late-June breakout [4] - The SPX is currently pausing around the 10% above 2024 close level of 6,469, indicating a potential pause rather than a major pivot [5] Inflation and Market Reaction - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase of 0.9% in July, compared to the forecast of 0.2%, which could have triggered major selling, but the market reacted neutrally [6] - The lack of selling pressure may be due to hedge fund managers exiting positions in response to tariffs and inflation concerns, while active fund managers reduced equity exposure leading up to the PPI release [7] Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Market sentiment is cautious, with the percentage of bullish investors in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) falling below 30% for the first time since early May, which historically has been a buying opportunity [7] - The 30-day moving average is a key technical indicator, currently projected to be around 6,365 by week's end, and serves as a potential guide for identifying cracks in the current uptrend [12]