Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high, closing up 0.5% or 238 points, while the S&P 500 is also on track for a record close [2][4] - The Russell 2000 small-cap index also achieved a record close, with utilities and healthcare sectors performing well, up 2.5% and nearly 7% respectively [3][4] - The NASDAQ experienced a slight decline, with major tech stocks like Meta and Tesla down approximately 2.25% and 1.5% respectively [4][5] Economic Indicators - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns have minimal impact on market performance, with the market typically rising during shutdown periods [9][10] - The unemployment rate is estimated to be around 4.28%, indicating stability in the labor market despite some concerns about wage growth [27][28] - Alternative data sources suggest that the overall economy is stronger than indicated by traditional payroll reports, with GDP growth estimated close to 3% [28][29] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to lead earnings growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year increase of 21%, followed by industrials and communication services [17][21] - Financials are also anticipated to report strong earnings, contributing to a general expectation of a 7% gain for the S&P 500 in Q3 [16][21] - Valuations for the S&P 500 are trading at a 42% premium compared to a 20-year history, indicating elevated market conditions [19][20] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Consumer sentiment is expected to slightly decline in October, reflecting ongoing frustrations with high prices [52] - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies like PepsiCo and Delta Airlines will provide insights into consumer spending trends amid economic uncertainty [51][52] Government and Policy Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is delaying the release of key economic data, prompting reliance on alternative data sources for insights into the job market and inflation [23][24] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in response to economic conditions [14][53]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are reaching new highs despite the ongoing government shutdown, indicating a resilient market environment. The overall strategy remains unchanged, but adjustments have been made for Q4, particularly in the communication services sector [1][2]. Market Strategy Adjustments - The company has lowered its position in communication services from overweight to market weight for the first time since 2023, reflecting a cautious approach as earnings season approaches [3]. - There is a significant expectation built into media stocks, suggesting that merely meeting or beating earnings expectations may not be sufficient to support stock prices in the near term [4]. Sector Insights - The technology sector, especially semiconductors and software, remains a positive focus, driven by the ongoing AI trend [5]. - The consumer discretionary sector has also been adjusted to market weight, indicating a strategic shift towards areas that may benefit from lower interest rates in the future [6][7]. Small and Mid-Cap Stocks - The company is increasingly optimistic about small and mid-cap stocks, which are traditionally more sensitive to economic cycles. The ideal time to invest in small caps is typically post-recession, and the current environment suggests a potential soft landing combined with lower Fed rates [9]. - Small and mid-cap stocks have experienced an earnings recession over the past two years, but recent Q2 results show the first positive inflection in earnings growth, indicating a potential turnaround [10].

Market Outlook - 314 Research maintains its S&P 500 target of 6,800 for 2025, approximately 2% from current levels [1] - The equity market experienced two positive developments from the Fed this week, supporting a continued long position in the bull market [2] - A potential growth scare, with an estimated one-third chance of occurring in the coming months, could lead to a 7-8% pullback in the equity market [9] - In a growth scare scenario, the 10-year Treasury yield could potentially drop below 350 basis points (35%), although this is not the base case [11] Fed Policy & Economic Indicators - The market had priced in more rate cuts than the Fed signaled in June, setting a high bar for the Fed to clear [3] - Instances where the Fed moves slightly towards market expectations after high expectations have historically been positive for equities in the following quarter [4] - The Fed is effectively lowering the real Fed funds rate (nominal Fed funds rate minus inflation projections) across 2025-2027 [6] - The Fed may be more concerned about the labor market than they are letting on, potentially anticipating a larger left tail risk [16][17] Portfolio Strategy - 314 Research is pressing longs into year-end, paired with an overweight bond position [10] - Investors should prepare their portfolios for potential risks, particularly related to growth concerns [17] - During a growth scare, equities tend to experience increased volatility, with potential drawdowns, while bonds rally [9][16]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with expectations for at least another 50 basis points of easing this year due to growing labor market risks [4][7][10] - The market reaction to the Fed's decision was mixed, with bond yields rising and the dollar index falling to its lowest since February 2022, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, and the Dow and Russell 2000 rose [5][7] - The rotation from Big Tech and growth stocks into small caps and cyclicals was observed during the summer but has cooled in September, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy has not yet been fully realized, with stronger-than-expected retail sales in August and a projected Q3 growth rate of 3.4% [8][9] - U.S. firms have shouldered 64% of the tariff burden, with expectations that this will shift to 1% for consumers and 63% for firms, potentially affecting consumer prices [9] - The Fed's easing cycle is occurring while many global central banks are winding down their own easing, creating a divergence in monetary policy that may lead to volatility in global markets [10][12][13] Group 3 - The current Fed easing cycle may provide a tailwind for global equities, especially if it leads to a 'soft landing' without a recession, which is already being priced into the market [17][18] - Analysts suggest that equities are in the early stages of an upswing, with some expecting a potential 'euphoria' phase, particularly in Europe and Japan [19] - The risk remains that the Fed may not meet aggressive easing expectations, which could tighten global financial conditions and lead to a market correction [20]

Economic Outlook - Consumer prices rose in line with expectations in August, indicating no significant surprises for the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, with a 50 basis point cut being off the table [2][3] - There are tariff effects present in the consumer basket, but they are not substantial enough to alter the Fed's plans [3][5] Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims have increased, and continuing claims are trending higher, indicating a weakening labor market [9][10] - The duration of unemployment is at its highest in four to five years, suggesting challenges in job recovery [10] - Revisions to last year's job growth data indicate that the labor market was not as strong as previously thought [12][13] Inflation and Consumer Impact - Inflation is expected to worsen before improving, with businesses struggling to pass on cost increases to consumers [6][7] - Lower-end consumers are particularly unable to absorb price increases, leading businesses to explore cost-cutting measures [7][8] - Profit margins are likely to come under pressure, which could lead to lower market multiples and affect investor returns [22][24] Market Sentiment - The current economic data suggests a potential for slower growth rather than a hard landing [20] - Market valuations may be high relative to fundamentals, indicating that expectations for rapid growth may not be sustainable [21][22] - There is concern that a weakening jobs market combined with compressing profit margins could negatively impact the stock market [22][24]

Market Outlook - The market's first half performance suggests timing the market is difficult [3] - Markets have moved higher due to reduced Middle East tensions, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and a slowing but non-recessionary economy [3][4] - The market is approaching highs for 2025, supported by the expectation of a couple of rate cuts in the second half of the year [4] Earnings and Valuations - S&P 500 is trading at a premium, but strong earnings growth could drive the market higher [5][6] - First quarter earnings exceeded expectations, with actual earnings growth of approximately 12% compared to the expected 6% [6] Tariffs and GDP - A 10% tariff rate for the rest of the world (excluding China) could reduce GDP by about 1.5%, potentially skirting a recession [7] Global Diversification and US Market - Investors should remain globally diversified, with a neutral to weaker dollar benefiting non-US equities [9] - The US market is bullish, driven by artificial intelligence, with almost two-thirds of earnings growth driven by technology stocks [9] - Mega-cap tech stocks drive over 30% of the S&P 500's market cap, making the US a strong place to generate returns [9] Fixed Income and Bond Market - The bond market has calmed down, with the 10-year yield around 4.25% [10] - Factors like concerns about US Treasury safety and the impact of the "big beautiful bill" on the deficit could negatively affect the bond market [11] - Municipal bonds are attractive due to high yields and strong fundamentals driven by the strength of the US economy [12]