Market Overview - Major indices showed mixed performance with the Dow flat, S&P 500 up about 0.5%, and Nasdaq up approximately 0.9% [2][3] - Small-cap stocks were initially leading but ended up around 0.75% [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.12% [5] Gold Market - Gold prices reached record highs, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs and central bank purchases [8][10] - The trend is attributed to concerns over government debt and a weakening dollar, leading to a "debasement trade" [9][10] - Gold has risen 55% year-to-date, indicating a potential structural shift in investment strategies away from US Treasuries [15][12] Federal Reserve Insights - The Fed's meeting minutes indicated a consensus on further rate cuts, with most officials favoring easing policy to mitigate job market risks [18][20] - Concerns about inflation persist, with officials noting potential long-term impacts from tariffs [20][21] - The Fed is closely monitoring money market conditions, suggesting a pause in balance sheet runoff may be considered [22] AI Investment Trends - Nvidia is reportedly investing up to $2 billion in Elon Musk's AI startup, XAI, as part of a broader trend in AI investments [38][39] - The competitive landscape among AI companies is intensifying, with significant capital required to train large models [42][44] - Public market investors are advised to consider both chip manufacturers and AI infrastructure companies for investment opportunities [45][48] Automotive Industry Challenges - Moody's estimates a $30 billion hit to automakers' operating profits due to tariffs, with ongoing challenges in mitigating these costs [58][59] - Ford is positioned relatively well due to a high percentage of US-made vehicles, while companies like Toyota face significant tariff exposure [60][61] Consumer Behavior in Spirits Market - Constellation Brands reports that 80% of consumers are concerned about socioeconomic issues, leading to reduced outings and consumption [80][81] - The company has gained market share in 49 of 50 markets, indicating strong brand health despite overall industry challenges [84][85] - The spirits market is facing competition and changing consumer preferences, with a focus on high-demand products [92][94]

Core Insights - Gold futures have surged past $4,000 per ounce, marking the fastest rise since the Nixon Shock, driven by persistent inflation, rising unemployment, and a weakening dollar [1][4] - The Nixon Shock in 1971 ended the dollar's convertibility into gold, leading to rampant inflation and a loss of trust in the dollar, which parallels the current economic conditions [2][3] Market Dynamics - Since February 2024, gold prices have doubled, with the last similar increase occurring in the 1970s post-Nixon Shock [4] - The US M2 money supply has increased significantly alongside gold prices, influenced by trillion-dollar deficits and low interest rates [5] - The US Dollar Index has dropped 10% year-to-date, marking its steepest decline in four decades [5] Economic Indicators - Unemployment exceeds job openings by 157,000, the widest gap since March 2021, indicating a troubling labor market [5] - Inflation remains high, with 60% of Consumer Price Index items rising by at least 3%, while the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, risking stagflation [6] Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly moving into gold, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price target to $4,900 per ounce, indicating durable demand from ETFs and Central Banks [7]

Core Insights - The dollar index rose by +0.48% to a 1.5-week high, driven by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and political uncertainty in France and Japan [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown poses a bearish outlook for the dollar, with potential negative impacts on GDP growth [2] - The euro fell by -0.50% to a 1.5-week low due to signs of weakness in the Eurozone economy and political turmoil in France [5] - The yen declined by +1.00% against the dollar, reaching a 7.5-month low, influenced by concerns over Japan's monetary policy under new leadership [7] Federal Reserve Insights - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid emphasized the need for continued monetary policy measures to combat high inflation [3] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned against drastic interest rate cuts, citing stagflationary signals in the data [3] - Markets are pricing in a 93% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [4] Eurozone Economic Indicators - German factory orders unexpectedly fell by -0.8% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of +1.2% [6] - Political instability in France, following the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu, is contributing to the euro's decline [5] Japanese Economic Context - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the leader of Japan's ruling party raises concerns about delayed monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan [7] - Takaichi's victory has led to fears of increased debt supply due to her support for expanded financial stimulus [7]

‘From the technical analysis perspective, the summer surge was a huge deal. Breaking past that 6,120–6,170 barrier essentially opened the door straight up to the 6,800 range’, explained Kar Yong Ang, looking at the S&P 500 chart (see above). ‘I think both the big trading algorithms and the fund managers have the 7,000 mark as a key psychological target. We could easily see a quick push toward, or even slightly above that level, possibly hitting 7,142. But watch out, because a sharp technical pullback is lik ...

Core Viewpoint - Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are experiencing a resurgence as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates through 2025 and into 2026, creating a favorable environment for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current rate cuts are linked to higher inflation and a slight economic slowdown, suggesting a potential stagflation scenario, which may lead to tangible assets outperforming financial ones [2]. - Investors are advised to focus on tangible assets, including REITs, as they are directly tied to property portfolios and income [3]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Realty Income - Realty Income focuses on commercial properties with high-quality tenants, providing a stable and predictable property portfolio [4]. - The company offers a monthly dividend of $3.23 per share, resulting in an annualized yield of 5.37%, which exceeds U.S. inflation rates and Treasury bond yields [5][6]. - The current yield is at the top of Realty Income's historical range, indicating potential undervaluation of its real estate portfolio [7]. - Realty Income is planning $66 billion in potential acquisitions for 2025, aiming to secure properties with high rental yields [7]. - Analyst Richard Anderson has set a price target of $64 per share for Realty Income, suggesting a 6.5% upside from current prices [8]. Group 3: Company Analysis - Equity Residential - Equity Residential primarily holds multi-family real estate, offering less cyclical risk compared to other REITs, but with slightly higher risk than Realty Income [9]. - The company benefits from a return-to-office trend and a locked housing market, as high home prices and mortgage rates push consumers towards renting [10]. - Equity Residential's current dividend payment of $2.77 per share translates to an annualized yield of 4.42%, which is also above inflation and government bond yields [11]. - Analysts have a consensus price target of $74.32 per share for Equity Residential, indicating an 18.6% premium above current prices [12]. Group 4: Company Analysis - Camden Property Trust - Camden Property Trust's portfolio is more sensitive to job and population growth, particularly in the Sun Belt region, making it a more cyclical investment [13]. - Despite being the riskiest option among the discussed REITs, Camden offers significant upside potential if affordability trends continue in the housing market [14]. - Camden's dividend payout of $4.20 per share results in a 4.07% annualized yield, suggesting undervaluation in the current market [14]. - Analyst Richard Hightower has set a price target of $127 per share for Camden, representing a 23% upside from current prices [15].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions - The cryptocurrency market anticipates that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will continue to cut rates, with futures markets indicating a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the end of the month, a significant increase from previous weeks [1] - The US government shutdown has halted the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resulting in the cancellation of the September jobs report and key spending data, leaving the Fed to operate without fresh data [2] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, with private payroll data indicating 32,000 job losses in September, suggesting a stagflation environment [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The current economic sentiment among US adults is largely negative, with 74% describing conditions as "fair or poor," indicating a lack of confidence in the economy [4] - There is speculation that deeper rate cuts from Powell may not occur until significant layoffs happen, which could lead to defaults on consumer debt [3] - Bitcoin is experiencing increased long-term holder accumulation, with exchange outflows rising by 9% week-over-week, reflecting growing investor conviction [6] Group 3: Asset Class Performance - Gold prices have reached $3,900, and the Nikkei index has climbed 4.3% due to expectations of Japan's fiscal stimulus, positioning Bitcoin as a third safe haven alongside gold and stocks [7] - Total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance has increased to $82.5 billion, up 11% from the previous month, with Ethereum and Solana leading in inflows [6]

On that note, let's bring in Kevin Green who joins me now. Happy Friday. So, we haven't got the NFP, but we have hopefully Kevin got the ISM services.What are you seeing there. So, we do have ISM services that was actually just released and unfortunately this isn't the best print to say the least here, Sam. We actually did have the headline number coming in at 50 even.So, we're still in expansionary territory. Street was looking for 51.8% when you're looking at the ISM non manufacturing PMIs here. and that' ...

We recently published 10 Stocks to Watch Ahead of Q3 Earnings Season. Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) is one of the stocks that Wall Street analysts are discussing these days. In the ‘Final Trades’ segment on CNBC, Jim Lebenthal, a partner at Cerity Partners, said that he likes Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM). Here is what the analyst said: “Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), I know I spoke about it earlier earlier. There’s a stealth trade going on in energy.” ClearBridge Dividend Strategy stated the following regar ...

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The U.S. dollar is in the midst of its steepest annual decline in over five decades, triggering renewed inflation concerns among leading market experts. Dollar Depreciation Sparks Inflation Concerns On Monday, in a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter raised concerns regarding the depreciation in the U.S. Dollar throughout this past year. Citing data from Apollo Global Management, the post warned that this decl ...

This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. Here's the same chart with the S&P 500 and 10-year yields adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By adjusting the data for inflation, we gain a clearer understanding of the real returns. This adjustment reveals the severe impact of stagflation, particularly the significant decline in real equi ...