June 23, 2025 12:53 AM GMT India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific Policy Impetus to Bolster Growth Growth indicators exhibit a modest recovery led by domestic demand. Macro stability indicators have improved, increasing flexibility for policy makers. Uncertainty from external conditions continues to weigh on growth, even as India appears better placed on a relative basis. 1) Growth – uneven recovery: High-frequency data in May suggest a mixed trend across indicators, with ones such as G ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the impact of President Trump's tariff policy on the global economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the trade relations between the US, China, and the UK. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements** - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline following the announcement of reciprocal tariff rates on April 2, leading to a "triple decline" in stocks, Treasury bonds, and the US dollar [1][26][49] 2. **Ceasefire and Market Stabilization** - A ceasefire was declared on April 9, pausing tariff implementations for 90 days, which helped stabilize markets as provisional agreements were reached with the UK and China [1][34][49] 3. **Investment Delays Due to Uncertainty** - Businesses are likely to delay or scale back investments due to ongoing concerns about tariffs, potentially triggering a global economic slowdown or recession [2][53] 4. **Historical Context of GATT** - The free trade system under GATT allowed certain unfair trade practices, which Trump aimed to address through reciprocal tariffs, shocking many in the business community [4][5][15] 5. **Negotiation Dynamics with China** - The US and China agreed to reduce mutual tariff rates by 115%, but the US still plans to impose a 30% tax on Chinese imports, reflecting ongoing tensions [39][40] 6. **Inflation Concerns** - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index indicated rising inflation expectations, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [51][52] 7. **Impact of Tariff Uncertainty on Corporate Investment** - The unpredictability of tariff rates is likely to lead companies to adopt a more cautious approach to capital investment, affecting long-term business decisions [53][55] 8. **Political Influence on Economic Policy** - Major contributors to the Republican Party have the power to influence Trump's policies, as seen when the tariff pause was announced following market declines [34][35][36] 9. **Future of US Trade Policy** - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's future actions remains a significant risk for the US economy, as his impulsive decisions could lead to further market instability [58][61] 10. **Geopolitical Implications** - The US's need for strong trade relations with allies is emphasized, especially in the context of competing with China's economic power [79][80] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Trade Deficits** - The US trade deficits have persisted for 40 years, and Trump's focus on reducing these deficits is a long-standing goal that resonates with his core supporters [14][82][83] 2. **Market Sensitivity to Tariff Announcements** - The announcement of high tariffs can have irreversible impacts on risk calculations for businesses, as seen in past trade frictions [56][55] 3. **Potential for Currency Adjustments** - There is a risk that the Trump administration may consider adjusting exchange rates as a means to address trade imbalances, which could lead to further dollar weakness [86][88] 4. **Negotiation Challenges with China** - The complexity of US-China negotiations is highlighted, with the potential for impulsive decisions by Trump complicating the process [42][46][47] 5. **Long-term Economic Outlook** - The overall outlook for financial markets and the US economy remains unpredictable, with inflation concerns and trade uncertainties posing significant challenges [49][50][61]

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 17 May 2025 | 10:29PM EDT US Daily: Tracking Trade with High-Frequency Data (Peng) Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.c ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record low of -$140.5 billion in March, surpassing the previous estimate of -$137.6 billion and the revised prior record of -$123.2 billion [2] - The trade deficit metric has been consistently reported since 1992, indicating ongoing trade challenges [3] Company Earnings Reports - DoorDash (DASH) reported Q1 earnings of 44 cents per share, beating estimates by 10%, but revenues of $3.03 billion fell short by nearly 2%. The company announced acquisitions of Deliveroo for $3.9 billion and SevenRooms for $1.2 billion [3] - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported earnings of 70 cents per share, slightly beating estimates but significantly lower than the $1.46 per share from the previous year. Revenues of $20.18 billion missed expectations by 2.5% [4] - Marriott International (MAR) reported Q1 earnings of $2.32 per share, exceeding estimates by 5 cents, with revenues of $6.26 billion, which was slightly below expectations but an increase from $5.98 billion a year ago [5] Market Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is underway, with no expected changes to the Fed funds rate, which has been stable in the 4.25-4.50% range since December [6][7] - The U.S. dollar has shown some instability due to new global trade realities, but bond yields remain stable, indicating no immediate pressure for rate changes [8] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Electronic Arts (EA), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN), with The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reporting the following day [9]