This section here traditionally would have been filled with U.S. corn. Customers love it because it's a great product. What started as a big display has been shrunk.In response to U.S. tariffs and President Trump's threats to annex Canada, 71% of Canadian consumers say they intend to buy fewer American products this year. That's having an impact. The US economy could lose up to 0.3% of its GDP, or about $90 billion, in 2025, due to the boycott of American goods and the decline in foreign tourism.Giancarlo M ...

Geopolitical & Economic Landscape - China has become the world's second-largest economy and a military superpower, but faces industrial choke points hindering its independence [1] - These choke points make China vulnerable to US pressure in trade wars and export controls [1] Industrial Challenges & Opportunities - China faces challenges in advanced computer chips and essential manufacturing components [2] - China is systematically addressing these choke points using AI to accelerate progress [2] - Some choke points, like advanced semiconductor manufacturing, may take years or decades to resolve, while others are nearing resolution [2] Competitive Landscape - Products affected include carbon fiber for aviation and ball bearings for various industries [3] - European, Japanese, and American rivals are now on high alert due to improving Chinese quality and yield [3]

Event Focus - Bloomberg News will host its annual Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles [1] - Bloomberg Television's Lisa Abramowicz and Dani Burger will speak at the forum [1] Key Concerns - The forum will address questions around trade wars [1] - Persistent inflation is a major topic of discussion [1] - Growing concern of a slowdown in the world's largest economy will be explored [1] Market Outlook - The forum aims to explore where the market goes from here [1]

Trade Policy & International Relations - Trade wars generally result in losses for all parties involved, although larger economies might inflict greater losses on others [4] - The global trading system may not be entirely fair, with the US imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports from Europe while facing a 10% import duty in return, and dealing with issues like intellectual property theft by China [6] - The US has historically led in reducing tariff barriers, but there's concern about a shift towards increasing them [7][8] - Reshoring American manufacturing is a goal, but many manufacturing jobs may not return, and tariffs on inputs could negatively impact manufacturing companies [11] - Government incentives and subsidies, like the CHIPS Act, can help secure domestic production of critical goods such as chips, reducing reliance on countries like Taiwan [14][15] Economic Impact of Research & Development - Government grants, business investment, and university research collaboration have historically driven comparative advantage in high-wage, high-tech industries [18][19] - Cuts to research funding can have long-lasting negative consequences, as stopping research, especially drug development, is difficult to restart [21] - The Trump administration's actions are perceived as an attack on elite universities and research, potentially driven by political motivations [20][23] University Funding & Endowment - Universities use endowment income to support financial aid and keep education affordable [25] - Some universities are facing grant cancellations and are targets of the endowment income tax [25]

Company Overview - Invest Heroes LLC is a CIS-based research firm established in 2018, providing equity and fixed income research services that have gained local recognition among professional investors and private clients [1] - The firm covers over 120 Russian, US, and Chinese stocks, as well as more than 200 Russian bonds, including corporate and state-owned enterprises [1] - The research services are offered as a paid service to institutional clients, asset managers, and approximately 3000 private clients [1] Team and Recognition - The team consists of 2 strategists and 9 analysts specializing in equity and fixed income markets, achieving global professional recognition [1] - Within the first three years, the firm gained entry into Refinitiv and Factset, participated in Refinitiv consensus, and became recognized as the best analysts in Refinitiv ratings for several Russian companies [1] - The firm is in the process of signing with S&P Market Intelligence, indicating further growth and recognition in the industry [1] Research Quality - The forecasts provided by the firm are often ahead of the market due to a detailed business model built for each company [1]

Core Insights - Apple's Q2 2025 financial report shows a revenue increase of 5% to $95.4 billion and an 8% rise in earnings per share to $1.65, both exceeding analyst expectations [2][5] - The company is making progress in navigating trade issues, with a majority of devices shipped to the U.S. originating from India and Vietnam, although revenue from China fell by over 2% to $16 billion [4][5] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2024 was $90.8 billion, increasing to $95.4 billion in Q2 2025, marking a 5% growth [2] - Earnings per share rose from $1.53 to $1.65, an 8% increase [2] - iPhone revenue increased slightly from $46.0 billion to $46.8 billion, a 2% growth [2] - Services revenue grew from $23.9 billion to $26.6 billion, a 12% increase [2] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $24 billion, with a new $100 billion share-repurchase program announced and a 4% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.26 per share [5] Market Reaction - Despite solid quarterly results, Apple shares fell 2% in after-market trading, continuing a downward trend with a nearly 15% decline year-to-date prior to earnings [6] Strategic Outlook - The shift in sourcing iPhones outside of China is seen as a positive development, but concerns remain about potential shifts toward local brands in China due to ongoing trade tensions [7] - Apple's revenue from royalties related to Google being the default search engine on iPhones is at risk due to antitrust issues, raising investor concerns [8] - Investors are looking for insights on Apple's future outlook, product refreshes, and AI enhancements to stimulate sales [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is expected to emerge as a net winner from the trade wars, creating a favorable environment for companies like Energy Transfer [1] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Higher tariffs on raw materials such as steel and albumin could increase costs for pipeline companies, potentially affecting their performance [2] - The tariffs are seen as both tactical and strategic, aimed at stimulating trade deals and encouraging industrial activity and investment in the U.S. [5] - The potential shift of manufacturing to the U.S. could lead to increased domestic gas demand and more LNG exports, benefiting midstream gas companies like Energy Transfer [6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Position - The U.S. holds a strong economic position with trade surpluses with many countries, indicating that foreign economies are structured to export to the U.S. [3] - The ongoing trade conflict poses risks for China, particularly due to its significant holdings of U.S. Treasuries valued at approximately $760 billion [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong earnings, contributing to high levels of capital and maintaining strong liquidity without debt [9][10] - The net interest margin (NIM) bottomed out at 4.60% and is expected to hold up well in Q2 and Q3 [48] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was primarily driven by the hospitality portfolio, with additional strength in commercial and industrial (C&I) bookings [15][17] - The company has internal self-imposed limits on each loan category, ensuring that growth remains within norms [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company operates in high-growth areas such as Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Texas, which are characterized by strong and diverse economies [17] - The capital markets are experiencing nervousness, with large outflows from equities affecting bank stocks [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is cautiously optimistic about future growth while maintaining a strong capital base and liquidity [10][29] - There is a focus on monitoring the economic environment closely, especially regarding tariffs and their potential impact on consumer sentiment [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the volatility in the current economic landscape and the potential inflationary effects of tariffs on consumers [6][7] - The company is prepared for potential distressed acquisition opportunities due to excess capital levels [69][72] Other Important Information - The company has a clean credit book with low past dues and strong capital levels, positioning it well for potential economic downturns [45] - The energy portfolio, which constitutes about 9-10% of overall loans, is well-managed with borrowers actively hedging against commodity price fluctuations [36][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth and macro uncertainty - The hospitality portfolio showed strong growth, and there is a good backlog of deals, but future bookings remain uncertain due to economic conditions [15][17] Question: Trends in hospitality portfolio - Hospitality is seasonal, and while January and February are typically weak, current occupancy rates remain steady [21][24] Question: Share buyback strategy - The company does not feel pressured to conduct share buybacks due to strong capital levels and high returns on equity [26][29] Question: Energy portfolio risks - The underwriting process includes sensitivity analyses, and borrowers are well-capitalized and hedged against price fluctuations [38][40] Question: Non-performing assets (NPAs) and loan levels - The credit book is clean with low past dues, and there are no alarming trends in loan grades [45] Question: Net interest margin (NIM) outlook - NIM improved due to lower bond costs and is expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [48] Question: Impact of tariffs on clients - Clients are exploring alternative supply chains to mitigate the impact of tariffs, and larger companies are proactive in finding solutions [54][56] Question: Oil and gas revenue trajectory - Oil and gas revenue is trending downwards, and the company expects a decrease in both income and expenses related to this sector [62][63] Question: M&A environment - The company is actively looking for acquisition opportunities but faces challenges due to high valuations and regulatory issues affecting other banks [71][72]

Core Insights - The introduction of new tariffs, including a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, is expected to significantly impact consumer prices across various sectors, including electronics and groceries [3] - Experts recommend proactive financial planning to mitigate the effects of potential price hikes due to tariffs, emphasizing the importance of emergency funds and debt management [2][8] Financial Strategies - **Emergency Fund**: It is advised to bolster emergency savings to cover three to six months of expenses, especially in light of potential inflation from tariffs [1] - **Debt Management**: Paying off high-interest debt is crucial, as rising costs may lead the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, making variable-rate debts more expensive [4] - **Investment Diversification**: Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios with index funds and ETFs to manage market volatility caused by trade wars and tariffs [5] - **Certificates of Deposit (CDs)**: CDs currently offer rates above 4.00%, which may become more attractive if interest rates rise due to tariffs [6] - **Timing Major Purchases**: Consumers are advised to consider making significant purchases sooner rather than later to avoid potential price increases on imported goods [7]