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Week Ahead: Trade War Risks Are Back—and Markets Are Pricing Them In
Investing· 2026-01-20 08:47
Core Viewpoint - US stock futures declined significantly due to renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe, particularly regarding tariffs related to Greenland, ahead of the earnings season [2][3]. Economic Data and Earnings Calendar - Trump's upcoming speech at Davos is expected to focus on housing affordability, proposing measures such as banning large institutional homebuyers and directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase more mortgage bonds to reduce borrowing costs [5]. - Delayed PCE inflation data for October and November will be released on Thursday, providing the Federal Reserve with crucial insights on price pressures before their policy meeting [5]. - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding Fed Governor Lisa Cook's challenge against President Trump's attempt to remove her, which could impact the central bank's independence [6]. Market Reactions - Asian stocks fell, and US futures dropped by approximately 1% as trade-war fears affected market sentiment [8]. - The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased by 0.5%, with most sectors experiencing losses, while futures indicated further declines for US and European equities [8]. - Citigroup downgraded European equities to neutral due to escalating US-EU tensions and tariff uncertainties affecting earnings, while upgrading Japan to overweight and favoring emerging markets for better risk-reward [8]. Commodity and Currency Movements - The dollar remained under pressure, with 10-year US Treasury yields reaching a four-month high of approximately 4.27% [8]. - Gold prices hit a record high of $4,701.23 per ounce, reflecting a more than 70% increase since the beginning of Trump's second term [8]. - Oil prices remained steady as traders assessed the implications of US efforts to control Greenland and the potential for escalating US-EU trade tensions [8]. Earnings Reports - Netflix is expected to report Q4 results with an EPS of $0.55 (up 28% year-over-year) and revenue of $11.97 billion (up 17%), driven by popular content [10]. - 3M Company is projected to show only single-digit sales and EPS growth for 2026, with JPMorgan maintaining a neutral rating [11]. - United Airlines anticipates a third consecutive earnings decline with around 3% sales growth, while Goldman Sachs has reiterated a buy rating [11]. - Charles Schwab is expected to report a 22% increase in revenue and a 50% increase in earnings for the full year [12].
CNBC Daily Open: A trade 'bazooka' against Trump's Greenland tariffs is in the cards for the EU
CNBC· 2026-01-20 07:45
Group 1: Trade Tensions and Tariffs - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs worth 93 billion euros ($108 billion) on the U.S. in response to President Trump's threats regarding trade with Greenland [2] - The EU's "Anti-Coercion Instrument" aims to deter economic coercion affecting trade and investment, with potential repercussions extending beyond tariffs to financial restrictions and limits on public procurement [3][4] - The auto industry, luxury brands, and pharmaceutical companies are among the sectors most exposed to the potential impact of U.S. tariffs [5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Markets reacted negatively to the news of potential tariffs, with Dow Jones futures indicating a drop of over 600 points and European stocks falling [7] - Safe-haven assets like gold and silver surged to new highs following the announcement of tariffs, indicating increased market volatility and investor concern [7] Group 3: Specific Industry Impacts - French wine and champagne are particularly targeted by President Trump, facing a potential 200% tariff due to political disagreements with French President Macron [6]
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures tumble as Trump tariff threats and bond sell-off rattle nerves
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-19 23:57
Market Overview - US stocks are expected to face significant losses due to renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe, particularly regarding Greenland, with Dow Jones futures indicating a drop of over 700 points [1] - The S&P 500 futures fell by 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 1.9%, following a losing week for Wall Street [1] Trade Tensions - President Trump threatened a 200% import tariff on French wines after France's President Macron declined an invitation to join Trump's "Board of Peace" [2] - Trump also stated that eight NATO countries would face additional import duties of 10% unless a deal regarding Greenland was reached, while the EU is considering $108 billion in retaliatory tariffs [3] Economic Impact - Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels in four months, with the 30-year yield reaching 4.93%, influenced by a sell-off in Japanese bonds and trade war risks [5] - The dollar has fallen to a two-week low, while gold and silver prices have reached record highs due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5] Corporate Earnings - Investors are preparing for a busy earnings season, with Netflix, Intel, and Johnson & Johnson set to report results, and S&P 500 earnings growth expected to be around 12% to 15% this year [7] - The sentiment of "Sell America" could lead to potential downside for corporate earnings if trade tensions persist [7] Acquisition News - GSK has agreed to acquire RAP Therapeutics for $2.2 billion, which is expected to enhance its food allergy treatment portfolio [7] - Shares of RAP Therapeutics surged over 60% following the announcement of the acquisition [8]
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures sink as Trump tariff threats and bond sell-off rattle nerves
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-19 23:57
Market Overview - US stocks are expected to face significant losses due to renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe, particularly regarding Greenland, alongside a global bond sell-off led by Japan [1][2] - Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicate a potential drop of nearly 600 points, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also showing declines of 1.3% and 1.6% respectively [1] Trade Tensions - President Trump has threatened additional import duties of 10% on eight NATO countries unless a deal regarding Greenland is reached, with the EU considering $108 billion in retaliatory tariffs [3] - Trump also proposed a 200% import tariff on French wines following a diplomatic snub from President Macron, escalating trade tensions further [4] Bond Market Impact - Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels in four months due to the sell-off in Japanese bonds, which has affected US debt markets [5][8] - The "Sell America" trade has emerged, leading to a decline in the dollar and record highs for gold and silver as investors seek safe-haven assets [5] Earnings Season - Investors are preparing for a busy earnings season, with Netflix set to report results after the market close, and its stock has shown resilience by rising after amending its bid for Warner Bros [6] - D.R. Horton reported a 3% decline in stock price due to lower first-quarter profits amid affordability concerns affecting home buyers [7] Acquisition News - GSK has announced the acquisition of RAP Therapeutics for $2.2 billion, significantly boosting its food allergy treatment portfolio, resulting in a 60% increase in RAP's stock price [10]
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures tumble as Trump tariff threats, bond sell-off rattles markets
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-19 23:57
Market Overview - US stocks are expected to face significant losses due to renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe, particularly regarding Greenland, with Dow Jones futures indicating a drop of over 700 points [1] - The S&P 500 futures fell by 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 1.9%, following a losing week for Wall Street [1] Trade Tensions - President Trump threatened a 200% import tariff on French wines after France's President Macron declined an invitation to join Trump's "Board of Peace" [2] - Trump also indicated that eight NATO countries would face additional import duties of 10% unless a deal regarding Greenland was reached, while the EU is considering $108 billion in retaliatory tariffs [3] Economic Indicators - Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels in four months, with the 30-year yield at 4.93% and the 10-year yield at 4.29%, influenced by a global bond sell-off and trade war risks [4] - The US dollar has fallen to a two-week low, while gold and silver prices have surged to record highs amid increasing demand for safe-haven assets [5] Corporate Earnings - Investors are preparing for a busy earnings season, with Netflix, Intel, and Johnson & Johnson set to report results, and analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth of approximately 12% to 15% this year [6] - The sentiment of "Sell America" could lead to potential downside for corporate earnings if trade tensions persist [6] Acquisition News - British pharmaceutical giant GSK has agreed to acquire RAP Therapeutics for $2.2 billion, which will enhance its food allergy treatment portfolio [6][7]
ANALYSIS-Trump's Europe tariff threat over Greenland revives talk of 'Sell America' trade
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-19 16:00
Group 1 - U.S. President Trump's renewed tariff threats against European allies have reignited discussions about the 'Sell America' trade, reminiscent of the aftermath of last April's tariff levies [1] - Stock markets experienced significant declines, with European equities dropping over 1% and U.S. stock futures indicating further weakness [2] - The U.S. dollar weakened in response to Trump's tariff threats, which include a 10% tariff starting February 1, increasing to 25% by June 1 [3] Group 2 - The euro, along with sterling and Scandinavian currencies, rebounded from recent lows, while the Swiss franc saw its largest daily rise against the dollar in a month [4] - Analysts suggest that market reactions have been modest compared to previous events, indicating a belief that Trump may de-escalate tensions as he has done in the past [5] - The EU may retaliate with tariffs or implement an "anti-coercion instrument" to limit U.S. access to public tenders and investments [6] Group 3 - European countries are the largest creditors to the U.S., holding $8 trillion in U.S. equities and bonds, which poses a risk of foreign outflows from U.S. markets [7]
Gold, silver hit record highs as trade war fears spark safe-haven rush
KITCO· 2026-01-19 14:56
Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or insights related to companies or industries [1][2][3][4]
Gold and silver at record highs as trade war fears drive safe haven demand
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2026-01-19 14:53
Company Overview - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team operates from key finance and investing hubs including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]
Dollar dented as Trump tariff threats drive investors into safe havens
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-19 13:07
Core Viewpoint - The dollar has declined as investors seek safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc due to U.S. President Trump's tariff threats against Europe, particularly regarding Greenland [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - European leaders are working to prevent a trade war and have agreed to enhance efforts to dissuade Trump from imposing tariffs while preparing retaliatory measures [2]. - The euro increased by 0.3% to $1.163, and the pound rose by 0.27% to $1.3415 amid the dollar's decline [3]. - The Swiss franc is experiencing its largest daily rise against the dollar in a month, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets [2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that typically, tariff threats would weaken the euro, but heightened policy uncertainty from the U.S. has led to dollar weakness instead [4]. - Despite some capital movement away from the dollar, analysts caution that the dollar's safe-haven status remains intact, and further escalation could lead investors back to U.S. currency [5]. - The size of the U.S. market ensures that it retains some safe-haven value, even if non-U.S. investors consider moving their capital [6]. Group 3: Currency Performance - The dollar fell by 0.5% to 0.7984 Swiss francs and slightly decreased against the Japanese yen, which is also considered a safe-haven currency [7].
Starmer rules out retaliatory tariffs against US over Greenland
The Guardian· 2026-01-19 11:33
Core Viewpoint - Keir Starmer has rejected the idea of imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US, emphasizing that such actions would harm the British economy and are not in anyone's interest [1][4]. Group 1: UK-US Relations - Starmer stressed the importance of maintaining a strong and constructive relationship with the US, particularly in areas like defense, security, and intelligence [3][7]. - He highlighted that any decision regarding Greenland's future status should be made by its people and Denmark, asserting the principle of respect in international cooperation [5][6]. Group 2: Diplomatic Approach - Starmer aims to resolve tensions through calm discussions rather than escalating to a trade war, which he believes would have serious consequences for the UK [6][8]. - He acknowledged the understandable public backlash against Trump's tariff threats but maintained that a strong relationship with the US is crucial for national interests [7][8]. Group 3: Stance on Tariffs - The Prime Minister condemned the use of tariffs against allies, stating that alliances should be built on respect and partnership rather than pressure [4][7]. - Starmer reiterated that threatening tariffs is fundamentally wrong and counterproductive to the goals of international cooperation [4][6].