贝利在英国下议院财政委员会的听证会上重申了8月降息后的立场，他指出："目前，对于我们何时、以 何种速度推进进一步降息，存在的疑问已明显增多。" 衍生品市场数据显示，交易员几乎确定英国央行将在9月18日的会议上宣布降息，但对于后续的降息路 径，市场预期仍不清晰。 XTB研究总监凯瑟琳.布鲁克斯(Kathleen Brooks)分析称："市场目前认为11月降息的概率仅为18%，而一 个月前这一概率高达67%。因此，英国国债收益率或许能扭转近期的上涨势头，但我们仍预计，未来一 段时间内，英国国债收益率将继续高于其他主要经济体的水平。" 她进一步表示："考虑到11月预算案公布前市场可能持续面临不确定性，我们认为英镑汇率已在7月触及 1.38美元的峰值，短期内或在1.35美元下方横盘整理。" 英国财政大臣雷切尔.里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)将于11月26日公布秋季预算案。目前里夫斯面临着维持政府 财政稳定的压力，她已承诺将严格控制支出，以助力抑制通胀、降低借贷成本。 债券投资者的担忧情绪仍未缓解。英国当前的借贷成本在七国集团(G7)发达经济体中位居首位：英国10 年期国债收益率为4.74%，而同期美国10年期国 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]