Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending increased by 0.6% in August, surpassing expectations and indicating economic resilience as households engaged in leisure activities [4][6] - The economy has retained momentum from the previous quarter, supported by low layoffs and strong business demand for equipment, suggesting limited likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Job growth has stagnated due to trade policy uncertainty and immigration restrictions, impacting the labor market [3] Consumer Spending Details - Consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% in August following a 0.5% increase in July, exceeding the forecast of 0.5% [4][6] - Spending on services, including transportation, dining, and recreation, increased by 0.5%, while goods outlays surged by 0.8% [5][6] - High-income households are driving consumption, supported by a robust stock market and elevated home prices, with household wealth reaching a record $176.3 trillion in Q2 [7] Economic Indicators - The report indicates stronger income growth in 2024 and some months of the current year, attributed to rising equities and housing prices, benefiting higher-income households [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3.8% from April to June, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3% [3][5] - Consumer spending rose at a 2.5% pace, up from 0.6% in the first quarter, indicating stronger consumer resilience amid trade uncertainties [5][6] - A notable decline in imports at a 29.3% pace contributed over 5 percentage points to the second-quarter growth, reversing the trend from the first quarter [4][5] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP rebounded from a 0.6% drop in the first quarter, which was the first decline in three years, primarily due to increased imports [3][4] - The underlying strength of the economy, measured by a specific GDP category, grew by 2.9% from April to June, up from 1.9% in the first quarter [6][7] - Private investment fell, including a 5.1% drop in residential investment, and federal government spending also decreased at a 5.3% annual pace [7][12] Labor Market - Job creation has slowed significantly, with an average of 53,000 new jobs added per month since March, down from an average of 147,000 previously reported [12][13] - The Labor Department is expected to report a modest addition of 43,000 jobs in September, with unemployment likely remaining at 4.3% [14][15] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, with expectations of two more cuts this year, although strong GDP growth may influence their decision [15][16] - The Fed will closely monitor the upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for inflation trends [15]

Consumer Behavior - Chinese shoppers are prioritizing leisure spending over luxury designer brands [1]

Core Insights - The gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 3.8% annual rate for the period from April to June, an increase from the previous estimate of 3.3% due to higher consumer spending [1] Economic Performance - The upward revision in GDP growth indicates a stronger economic performance than initially anticipated, reflecting robust consumer spending trends [1]

The assumption was that consumer spending had softened considerably due to angst and uncertainty stemming from the trade wars. Now it appears that Americans mostly went about their business as usual. ...

Economic Growth & Indicators - US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by consumer spending [1] - GDP revised up to 38%, fueled by consumer and business spending [6] - Durable goods orders increased by 29%, primarily due to airplanes, while computer and computer chip orders decreased [4][5] - Jobless claims fell to 218000 [4] Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Governor Stephen Myron suggests the neutral rate is drifting down, requiring policy adjustment to avoid downside risks [2] - Some Fed members, like Austan Goolsbee, are hesitant to frontload rate cuts given the current economic conditions [6] - Jeff Schmitt views the current policy stance as only slightly restrictive and doesn't advocate for rate cuts, citing high inflation and a largely balanced labor market [7] Trade & Tariffs - Trade good balance shows the effect of tariffs, with a deficit of 855 billion due to a significant decrease in imports (over 4%) in July [5]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation is expected to report fourth-quarter revenue of $86.11 billion, an increase from $79.7 billion in the same quarter last year [1] - Analysts predict earnings per share of $5.80, up from $5.15 in the previous year’s fourth quarter [2] - Costco has consistently beaten revenue estimates, achieving this in two consecutive quarters and five out of the last ten quarters [2] Earnings Estimates - Fourth-quarter revenue is projected at $86.11 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 15.3% [1] - Expected earnings per share of $5.80 indicates a year-over-year growth of 12.6% [2] Consumer Behavior and Store Traffic - Costco stores in Northern New Jersey showed significant traffic, outperforming competitors like Amazon Fresh and Walmart [3] - The grocery section was noted as the busiest area, with consumers seeking value amidst anticipated price increases due to tariffs [4] - Overall visits to Costco increased by 3.2% year-over-year in April, May, and June, with a further increase of 5.5% in August [6] Membership and Revenue Streams - Membership fees generated $1.24 billion in the third quarter, up from $1.12 billion the previous year, highlighting the importance of this high-margin revenue [9] - The recent membership fee increase in September 2024 is expected to contribute positively to profitability [9] Operational Improvements - Early openings for executive members have been implemented to improve store operations and customer experience [5] - This strategy has reportedly reduced congestion and improved the flow of visitors, enhancing the overall shopping experience [6] Comparable Sales and Growth - Comparable sales rose by 5.7% year-over-year in the third quarter, with growth observed across the US, Canada, and other international markets [8] - Continued growth in store traffic and new store openings will be critical indicators for future performance [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is crucial for understanding the central bank's policy direction following recent rate decisions and market reactions [1][2] - Powell's comments will be analyzed for insights on economic conditions, inflation progress, and potential future rate adjustments [1][2] - The speech may address market dislocations or unintended consequences from recent policy decisions, impacting bond yields, the dollar, and equity sector rotation [1] Group 2: Market Recalibration and Valuations - Investors are recalibrating after the Fed's rate cut decision, focusing on the sustainability of recent market leadership amid concerning technical signals [2][3] - High-flying stocks like IonQ, Oklo, Baidu, and Alibaba have reached extreme valuations, raising concerns about potential corrections [3] - The shift from momentum to fundamentals could create downside pressure for these stocks, leading to broader market rotation into defensive sectors [3] Group 3: Semiconductor Sector Analysis - Micron's earnings report is anticipated to provide insights into memory chip demand across various applications, serving as a bellwether for the semiconductor cycle [4] - Key areas of focus include high-bandwidth memory demand from AI chip manufacturers, DRAM pricing trends, and inventory levels [4] - Micron's guidance on future demand and competition dynamics will be critical for assessing the sustainability of semiconductor investments [4] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Housing Market - Earnings from Costco and housing market data will shed light on consumer spending patterns and residential real estate trends post-Fed rate decision [5][6] - Costco's results will provide insights into membership trends and same-store sales growth, particularly during economic uncertainty [5] - New and existing home sales data will help evaluate the impact of recent rate cuts on housing activity and affordability challenges [5][6] Group 5: Economic Growth and Inflation Data - The Q2 GDP revision and Core PCE Price Index will influence Fed policy expectations and market sector rotation decisions [7] - The GDP revision will offer insights into economic momentum and consumer spending patterns that informed the Fed's recent policy [7] - The Core PCE reading will be scrutinized for evidence of disinflation progress or concerns about price stability, impacting bond yields and sector rotation [7]

Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer https://t.co/uJckCuRNIz ...

Economic Overview - Canadian GDP data for July and flash estimates for August will provide insights into the economic recovery after a 1.6% contraction from April to June due to the US tariff war [1] - The US economy shows early signs of recovery, with August spending data expected to indicate brisk consumer spending despite tepid income growth [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cooling labor market as a reason for the first interest rate cut of the year, while remaining vigilant on inflation amid ongoing tariff impacts [4] - A report is anticipated to show a slower growth rate in the personal consumption expenditures price index, providing the Fed some leeway to address labor market weaknesses [5] Central Bank Activities - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will discuss trade upheaval's effects on inflation and rates, while Statistics Canada will release population estimates amid post-pandemic immigration challenges [6] - Several central banks, including those in Sweden, Switzerland, and Hungary, are expected to maintain current rates, while Mexico and Nigeria are likely to implement cuts [7] Global Economic Indicators - Flash purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) in Asia and Europe will be closely monitored, with key readings from Australia and India expected to show service sector momentum [9] - Japan's midweek PMIs and retail sales data will provide insights into household spending, critical for the Bank of Japan's policy discussions [10] China Economic Data - China's August industrial profits will be reported, assessing corporate earnings stability after months of deflationary pressure, with government spending growth slowing [11] Latin America Economic Developments - Brazil's central bank will release minutes from its recent rate-setting meeting, maintaining a key rate of 15% amid high inflation [19] - Mexico is expected to continue its streak of rate cuts, with analysts anticipating a reduction to 7.5% as inflation remains within the central bank's tolerance range [22][23]