Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) fell to a 1-week low, finishing down by -0.15% due to pressure from rising US job cuts and declining consumer sentiment [1] - US job cuts in October surged by 175% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in 22 years, which supports the outlook for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates [1] - The University of Michigan's US November consumer sentiment index dropped to a nearly 3.5-year low of 50.3, falling more than expected from 53.0 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The ongoing US government shutdown is exerting additional pressure on the dollar, with potential negative impacts on the US economy and increased likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts [2] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated that interest rates are still "somewhat restrictive" and suggested a cautious approach to further rate cuts as the Fed approaches the neutral rate [5] - Markets are pricing in a 67% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [5] Group 3: Inflation Expectations and Consumer Credit - Mixed news on inflation expectations, with the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations unexpectedly rising to +4.7%, while the 5-10 year expectations eased to +3.6% [4] - US consumer credit in September increased by +$13.093 billion, surpassing expectations of +$10.230 billion [4] Group 4: Euro Performance - The euro (EUR/USD) rallied to a 1-week high, finishing up by +0.15% due to a weaker dollar and better-than-expected German trade data [6] - German September exports and imports rose more than anticipated, contributing to the euro's strength [6] - Central bank divergence is supporting the euro, as the ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement several more rate cuts by the end of 2026 [6]

Market Overview - Major indices experienced losses, with the Russell 2000 declining by 1.86% [1] - Nasdaq has lost 2.8% in the first four days of the week, with futures indicating potential further losses [1] Employment Data - Job cuts in October reached 153,074, the highest for the month since 2003, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas [2] - This data suggests a 66% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce the federal funds rate by 0.25 basis points in December [2] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Inflation remains persistent, leading to the possibility that the Fed may delay rate cuts until 2026 [3] - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for November is expected to be slightly lower at 53.0, marking one of the weakest figures in five years [3] Options Market Activity - Options market volume reached 66.26 million, 15% above the average daily volume, with the top 100 stocks accounting for 79% of this volume [4] - Calls made up 58% of the options volume, while puts accounted for 42% [4] - Unusual options activity included 1,264 instances, with Nexgen Energy's Dec. 19 $45 call showing a Vol/OI ratio of 93.74, indicating investor uncertainty [4] ETF Insights - The Invesco Nasdaq QQQ ETF (QQQ) had the highest Vol/OI ratio at 119.52, with a volume of 12,072 for the Nov. 10 $615 call [5] - Focus is on the Sept. 18/2026 $800 QQQ call, which had a volume of 5,014, 11.32 times the open interest [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant midday sell-off due to concerns over stretched valuations of AI stocks, the ongoing government shutdown, and weak labor market data [1][11] - All three major indexes are in negative territory, indicating a broad "risk-off" sentiment among investors [1] Major Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is down 0.8% or 398.70 points, closing at 46,912.30 [2] - The S&P 500 (SPX) has declined 1.1% to 6,720.32 and further to around 6,652 points, representing a 1.02% loss [2] - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) has tumbled 1.9% or 445.81 points to 23,053.99, with an additional loss of almost 1% in early trading [2] Investor Sentiment - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose 8.3% to 19.50, indicating increased investor anxiety [3] - The ratio of decliners to advancers on the NYSE is 1.97-to-1 and on the Nasdaq is 2.69-to-1, reflecting negative sentiment [3] Sector Performance - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) and Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) slipped 2.3% and 2% respectively, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) advanced 1% [3] Global Market Impact - European markets are mirroring the U.S. downturn, with the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX 40 all trading lower due to concerns over U.S. tech valuations [4] Economic Factors - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 38th day, is creating a "data vacuum" and increasing investor uncertainty [5] - The absence of crucial economic reports is leading to reliance on private payroll and layoff data, indicating a cooling labor market [5] Corporate Earnings - Constellation Energy (CEG) is set to report earnings, which will be closely watched for insights on AI-driven power demand [6] - NuScale Power (SMR) reported earnings, with a focus on next-generation nuclear deployments [6] Upcoming Events - The IAB Connect H2 conference on December 4th will focus on digital advertising, potentially impacting media and advertising technology sectors [7] Major Stock News - $750 billion has been wiped off major AI stocks this week, with Nvidia (NVDA) falling 2.2% in early trading and down 4.3% since market open [8] - Salesforce Inc. (CRM) dropped 5.3%, while other tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Broadcom (AVGO), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are also under pressure [8] International Developments - Rightmove's shares fell 12.5% after announcing increased investment in AI, while IAG saw an 11.5% slump due to soft U.S. travel demand [10]

Market Overview - European markets are expected to open mixed, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 set to open slightly lower, while France's CAC index and Italy's FTSE MIB are seen 0.1% higher, and Germany's DAX index is little changed from the previous session [1] - European stocks closed lower on Thursday, with most sectors and major bourses ending in negative territory after a busy earnings day [1] Company Performance - Diageo's stock fell 6.5% after the company cut its full-year guidance, citing weakness in the Chinese and U.S. markets [2] - Upcoming earnings reports include companies such as Richemont, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, Daimler Truck Holding AG, Amadeus IT Group SA, Cellnex Telecom SA, and OTP Bank NYRT [2] Economic Data - Investors are focused on upcoming data releases, including import and export data in Germany, French trade figures, and the U.K.'s House Price Index [3] - Recent central bank decisions saw the Bank of England and Norway's central bank hold rates steady, with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey indicating that rate cuts are anticipated, with economists pricing in a pre-Christmas rate cut [3][4]

Market Overview - The markets are currently pricing in a 69% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [1] - US stock indexes experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down -1.12%, Dow Jones down -0.84%, and Nasdaq 100 down -1.91%, reaching two-week lows [4][5] Economic Indicators - US October Challenger job cuts surged by +175.3% year-on-year to 153,074, marking the largest increase in seven months and the highest for an October in 22 years [2] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [2] Corporate Earnings - The Q3 corporate earnings season is strong, with 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings that beat expectations, indicating the best quarter since 2021 [3][7] - However, Q3 profits are expected to rise by only +7.2% year-on-year, the smallest increase in two years, and sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% year-on-year from +6.4% in Q2 [7] Sector Performance - Weakness in semiconductor stocks negatively impacted the overall market, with notable declines in companies such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down more than -7% and Nvidia (NVDA) down more than -3% [4][14] - Companies like Elf Beauty (ELF) and Duolingo (DUO) saw significant stock declines of more than -34% and -26% respectively, due to disappointing earnings forecasts [15][16] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year T-note yield fell -7 basis points to 4.09%, driven by expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates following weak labor reports [3][9] - T-note prices received support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which is the longest in history and may lead to additional job losses and reduced consumer spending [10] International Markets - Overseas stock markets showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.02% and China's Shanghai Composite up +0.97% [8]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.49% on Thursday, influenced by a report showing US job cuts surged by 175% year-on-year in October, marking the largest increase in 22 years [1][3] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated a preference for no additional Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar [2][4] - Goolsbee expressed unease about ongoing interest rate cuts due to a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown, while Hammack emphasized concerns about high inflation and the need for a mildly restrictive monetary policy [4] Currency Movements - The euro rose by +0.49% on Thursday, supported by dollar weakness and optimistic comments from ECB Vice President Guindos regarding Eurozone growth [5] - However, negative factors for the euro included an unexpected decline in Eurozone retail sales and lower-than-expected German industrial production for September [5]

Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Developments - The US Supreme Court is questioning the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, with Chief Justice Roberts emphasizing that tariff imposition is a core power of Congress [1] - Lower courts have ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, based on a questionable claim of emergency authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] - If the Supreme Court upholds these rulings, the US government may need to refund over $80 billion in tariffs already collected [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US job cuts surged by 175.3% year-over-year in October, totaling 153,074, marking the largest increase in seven months and the highest for an October in 22 years [3] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is affecting market sentiment and delaying government reports, which could further impact the economy [8][10] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes are retreating, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching two-week lows due to evidence of a cooling labor market and weakness in semiconductor stocks [5][6] - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.97%, the Dow Jones is down 0.76%, and the Nasdaq 100 is down 1.61% [6] - Despite the downturn, 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 earnings have beaten expectations, indicating strong corporate performance [4][7] Group 4: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [2] - The 10-year T-note yield has decreased by 7 basis points to 4.09%, influenced by weak labor data and expectations of continued interest rate cuts [4][9] - The ongoing government shutdown is providing underlying support for T-note prices, as it may lead to additional job losses and reduced consumer spending [10] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Semiconductor stocks are underperforming, with AMD down over 7% and Qualcomm down over 4% [14] - Elf Beauty's stock has dropped more than 32% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS significantly below consensus [15] - Datadog's stock has risen over 21% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast above consensus [17]

Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Developments - The US Supreme Court is questioning the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, with Chief Justice Roberts emphasizing that imposing taxes is a core power of Congress [1] - Lower courts have ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, based on a questionable claim of emergency authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] - If the Supreme Court upholds these rulings, the US government may need to refund over $80 billion in tariffs already collected [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US job cuts surged by 175.3% year-over-year in October, totaling 153,074, marking the largest increase in seven months and the highest for an October in 22 years [3][5] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is impacting market sentiment and delaying government reports, adversely affecting the economy [8] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Market Performance - 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 earnings have beaten expectations, indicating a strong earnings season, although profits are expected to rise by only 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [4][7] - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.19%, with the Dow Jones down 0.15% and the Nasdaq down 0.45%, reflecting concerns over the labor market [6] - Strong corporate earnings are providing support for stocks despite the cooling labor market [4] Group 4: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [2] - The 10-year T-note yield has decreased by 5 basis points to 4.11%, influenced by weak labor reports and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts [4][9] - European government bond yields are also declining, with the 10-year German bund yield down 0.7 basis points to 2.666% [10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced a significant increase of 45.2% since November 5, 2024, marking a record for the year following a presidential election, with expectations for continued gains based on historical trends [3][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold's price surge of 45.2% since November 5, 2024, surpasses previous records set during the Obama and Carter administrations, which saw gains of 43.6% and 31.8% respectively [3][6]. - The price of gold attempted to break the $4,000 level, settling at $3,992.90, with 49 new records established in the past 10 months [7]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Anticipation of swift interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has contributed to the rally in gold prices, enhancing its appeal compared to other safe-haven assets [4][6]. - Increased demand for gold from global central banks and private investors, particularly in China and Japan, has positively influenced gold prices [4][6]. Group 3: Political Influence - President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for lower interest rates have driven investors towards gold as a safe haven, amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. Group 4: Future Projections - Despite the current surge in gold prices, Capital Economics forecasts a decline to $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting that the current market may be experiencing a bubble [6].

Market Overview - Bitcoin has decreased by 3% to a price of $100,175, marking its lowest level since May, with analysts noting a continuation of "Red October" in the market [1] - Ethereum has experienced a 20% decline over the past month, trading at approximately $3,300, effectively erasing all gains for the year [1] Factors Influencing the Market - Macro analyst Alex Krüger identifies five reasons for the ongoing sell-off, including equities, digital asset treasuries, and the impact of the Federal Open Market Committee [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and the unresolved US-China trade war are contributing to a negative sentiment for risk assets [2] Sell Pressure Dynamics - The October 10 crash resulted in the liquidation of around $20 billion in leveraged positions, creating significant sell pressure in the crypto market and equities [3] - Wall Street executives have warned that stocks may face a pullback in the coming year due to these market conditions [3] Selling Trends - Bitcoin ETF investors have recently sold nearly $200 million in assets, following approximately $800 million in sales the previous week [5] - Long-term Bitcoin holders have also been selling significantly, with over $1.5 billion transferred from legacy wallets to exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken [5] Bitcoin Treasuries - Bitcoin treasuries have not been selling but have also not been purchasing, leading to a lack of support for the market [6] - Firms holding Bitcoin recorded the lowest level of purchases in 2025 during October, indicating a potential liquidity issue [6] Future Outlook - Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with the ongoing government shutdown limiting the Fed's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates [6]