June Retail Sales Beat Expectations As Americans Kept Spending https://t.co/d7A5QHoxuQ ...

June Retail Sales Beat Expectations As Americans Kept Spendinghttps://t.co/MYvjjbIlQf https://t.co/wRMAJpqx8O ...

Market Overview & Trends - Small cap market shows signs of life with a good month-to-date performance versus large caps [2] - The small cap market is considered extraordinarily cheap with a good underlying economic environment [3] - Expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the back half of the year could act as a tailwind [3] - M&A activity has been quiet this year but backlogs are building, expected to materialize in the second half of the year [4] - Consumer spending has been strong, particularly on air travel, but a handoff to other sectors like tech, software, and semiconductors is anticipated [5][6] - Aerospace and defense sectors are performing well, with expectations of more IPO activity in the space sector [7] Company Specific Opportunities - Cheesecake Factory is highlighted as a Gen Z hotspot with good traffic trends expected throughout the summer [8] - Piper is expected to be an M&A story, benefiting from general capital markets recovery and a solid municipal bond business [9] - Site Time is mentioned as a company benefiting from increased connectivity demands within data centers, driven by AI development [15] Risk Factors & Mitigation - Companies have largely adjusted to high interest rates, which have been in place for almost 3 years [10] - Domestic focus of small caps is seen as an advantage, as companies have tightened supply chains and focused on the US market after previous tariff challenges [12][13] - Prior adjustments to semiconductor sourcing mitigate concerns about current tariffs, though future tariffs could potentially cap growth [17][18]

Market Overview - Market experienced volatility due to policy uncertainty and geopolitical events, even a "bear market scare" in Q2, but stocks recovered to all-time highs by the end of the quarter [1] - Fidelity thought leaders provided insights on the past quarter and discussed potential risks and opportunities for the next quarter [1] Key Topics Covered - Discussion included a Q2 recap and Q3 market outlook [1] - Analysis of stocks & bonds, taxes & tariffs, and interest rates [1] - Examination of risks & opportunities, consumer debt, and national debt & Treasurys [1] - Commentary on Bitcoin & gold [1] Economic Factors - CPI data and the Federal Reserve's actions were discussed [1] - Impact of tariffs on corporate earnings was analyzed [1] Market Segments - Perspectives on international stocks and U S exceptionalism were shared [1]

US retail sales rebounded in a broad advance, potentially tempering some concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending https://t.co/1nZtayvm0U ...

just leaving that data point. Megan. Thanks, Megan Cassella.Drew Mattis is here for more. He's the chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management here on set with us. Do you want to jump into this debate over do you perceive that.Yes, in largely speaking, we're not seeing a lot of pass through on the inflation front, which means that foreigners are eating the cost. You know, some importers eating the cost. Corporate margins are taking it somewhere.Just what's your macro thought about what we're se ...

Consumer Sentiment vs Reality - Consumer sentiment has been unreliable in predicting the economy's direction [1] - Consumers are good at judging their own finances, but pessimistic about the overall economy due to media influence [2][3] - Consumer sentiment is often influenced by political affiliation [4] - It's more reliable to observe consumer spending habits than to rely on sentiment surveys [6][7] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Household consumption has been steadily increasing [7] - Big banks' earnings reports show no significant cracks in the US consumer [9] - Charge-offs at big banks were below expectations, indicating no consumer credit stress [10] - The job market is the primary driver of consumer spending [10] - The labor market is cooling, but still adding jobs at a reasonable pace [11][12] - As long as real wage growth is positive, consumption will continue to be supported [13] Inflation and Tariffs - The year-over-year CPI number of 27% is driven by a low base period in the previous year [14] - Month-over-month CPI numbers are within or below expectations [15] - Economists are finding evidence that tariffs are pushing prices up, especially in product categories dominated by imports [18][19] - Trump's tariffs might raise inflation from 27% to 35%-4% [21] - Inflation had fallen to a low of 23% earlier in the year, but is now trending in the wrong direction [24]

Inflation & Tariffs Impact - CPI rose 27% last month, core CPI increased by 29%, potentially indicating tariffs are impacting the economy [1] - Core goods inflation, excluding autos, rose approximately 03% in June, suggesting a tariff impact [2] - If prices are up 03% and sales are up 03%, real spending on goods is declining in America [3] Economic Slowdown & Recession Risk - The analyst maintains a reasonable expectation of a potential recession [2][5] - Labor markets are cooling, with hourly earnings not rising at a particularly strong rate [4] - Consumer spending will likely moderate due to slowing disposable income growth [6] - The housing market may already be in recession, with prices declining in major markets [8][9] - State and local governments are tightening their belts, exemplified by layoffs [9] Key Indicators to Watch - Employment and income growth are crucial indicators for assessing the consumer and the overall economy [10][11] - Declining home prices, the most important asset for many consumers, signal potential economic slowdown [11]

Economic Stimulus - China should add up to 1500 billion yuan (approximately $209 billion) in new stimulus to boost consumer spending [1] - Maintain currency flexibility to counter the drag on growth from US tariffs [1]

Consumer Behavior - Chinese shoppers are increasing spending on leisure activities [1] - The focus of spending is shifting away from designer brands [1]