Handbags, champagne and a row over a possible new wealth tax https://t.co/FIYaQnsLVM ...

Group 1 - Ralph Lauren outlined new three-year targets for mid-single-digit sales growth and 100–150 basis points of operating margin expansion, with a 16% margin outlook not seen as a ceiling [1] - Growth is expected to be driven by strong performance in Asia and Europe, along with gains in women's apparel, handbags, and an expanded store footprint in APAC and EMEA [1] - Bank of America Securities noted that the updated plan reflects the company's previous successful strategy and highlights potential for gross margin improvement [2] Group 2 - Key drivers for growth include continued pricing power through higher average unit retail (AUR), easing input costs like cotton, and productivity gains in supply chain and inventory management [3] - A new $400 million cost savings program has been initiated, split between gross margin and SG&A, following a similar initiative from fiscal 2022 to 2025 [4] - Ralph Lauren's second-half guidance may be conservative, with stable consumer demand trends and opportunities in the women's category, particularly in handbags [5] Group 3 - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Ralph Lauren reported a 14% increase in revenue to $1.72 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.64 billion, and adjusted EPS of $3.77, surpassing forecasts of $3.43 [6] - For fiscal 2026, the company projects low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth at constant currency [6] - Analyst Christopher Nardone identified upside risks from faster sales recovery and cost savings, while downside risks include weakness in wholesale and global macro headwinds [7]

Company Overview - Tapestry, Inc., formerly known as Coach, Inc., is a designer and marketer of fine accessories and gifts for both women and men, operating in the United States and internationally [12] - The company offers a range of lifestyle products, including handbags, accessories, footwear, jewelry, seasonal apparel, sunwear, travel bags, fragrances, and watches [12] - Tapestry operates under three segments: Coach brand (79.9% of fiscal 2025 sales), Kate Spade & Company (17.1% of sales), and Stuart Weitzman (3.1% of sales) [12] Investment Analysis - Tapestry has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B, indicating a moderate investment outlook [13] - The company has a Momentum Style Score of B, with shares increasing by 11.8% over the past four weeks [13] - Four analysts have revised their earnings estimates higher for fiscal 2026, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by $0.03 to $5.46 per share [13] - Tapestry has an average earnings surprise of +10.3%, suggesting positive performance relative to expectations [13] - With a solid Zacks Rank and strong Momentum and VGM Style Scores, Tapestry is recommended for investors' consideration [14]

Group 1: High-Income Consumer Trends - High-income shoppers are increasingly turning to discount retailers like Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, indicating a trend of "trade down" as they seek better deals [1][2] - Despite high-income consumers performing better than lower-income counterparts, they are still managing their spending and looking for bargains, suggesting that retailers' efforts to attract this demographic may be effective [2][4] - The luxury market has seen consistent weakness, with high-priced items becoming less accessible, leading consumers to consider more affordable options [3][4] Group 2: Resale and Off-Price Retail Performance - Resale companies and off-price retailers like TJ Maxx and Marshalls are experiencing strong performance, with high-income consumers increasing their spending in these sectors [6][7] - The trend towards sustainability and the thrill of finding deals are driving high-income shoppers to resale markets, further indicating a shift in consumer behavior [7] Group 3: Low-Income Consumer Challenges - Low-income consumers are not holding up as well as high-income consumers, raising concerns about their spending power and its impact on the retail landscape [7][8] - If high-income consumer spending falters, it could negatively affect discretionary spending across various sectors, including travel and dining [8][9] Group 4: Pricing and Inflation Dynamics - Retailers are facing challenges in passing on price increases to consumers, which has contributed to a relatively stable spending environment despite inflationary pressures [9][10] - Specific categories have seen price increases, but overall pricing remains rangebound, benefiting consumer spending [10][11] Group 5: Holiday Season Outlook - The performance of high-income consumers is critical for the retail landscape, especially as the holiday season approaches; any decline in their spending could have widespread implications [13][14] - Key holiday winners are expected to include resale and off-price retail sectors, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences during the shopping season [14]

Summary of Inbound Travel Retail in China Industry Overview - The inbound travel retail market in China is projected to grow from **US$14 billion in 2024 to US$60 billion by 2034**, representing a **15% CAGR** [1][10][27] - By 2034, inbound travel retail is expected to account for **25% of China's total travel retail market**, up from **10%** in previous years [10][27] Key Drivers of Growth - **Globally Known Brands**: The presence of well-known brands and competitive pricing is attracting international tourists [4][10] - **Improved Shopping Experience**: The introduction of tax-free shopping (TFS) and instant tax refunds is enhancing the shopping experience for inbound tourists [5][10][31] - **Policy Support**: Recent policy changes are aimed at expanding tax-free shopping and improving infrastructure to support inbound tourism [26][48] Tax-Free Shopping Impact - The tax-free shopping market is expected to grow from **<US$0.5 billion in 2024 to US$20 billion by 2035** [94] - The **instant tax refund system** was expanded nationwide in April 2025, significantly increasing the number of malls offering this service from **2 to 17** among the top 20 malls in China [5][34][98] - Retail sales with tax refunds in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai have shown remarkable growth, with increases of **160% and 75% YoY**, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [35][103] Competitive Pricing - Chinese brands offer products at **20-50% lower prices** compared to international markets, making them attractive to tourists [4][29] - Imported luxury goods in China are competitively priced, often similar to or lower than prices in key Asian markets [29][74] Market Segmentation - The inbound travel retail market is primarily driven by international tourists, excluding visitors from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, who are expected to contribute significantly to growth [27][45] - The duty-free market is also gaining traction, with projections of **US$5 billion in spending by inbound tourists by 2035** [36] Implications for Retailers - Retailers, malls, and duty-free operators in China are expected to benefit the most from the growth in inbound tourism [6][40] - Companies like **CR Land, Hang Lung Properties, and CTG Duty Free** are identified as key beneficiaries [43] Risks and Challenges - Potential dilution of the Hong Kong retail market due to increased competition from mainland China [6][40] - The need for improved tax refund services and training for sales staff to facilitate the shopping experience for tourists [39] Conclusion - The inbound travel retail market in China is at a pivotal point, with significant growth potential driven by favorable policies, competitive pricing, and an enhanced shopping experience. Retailers and duty-free operators are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, although challenges remain in execution and market competition.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tapestry reported a record revenue of $7 billion for fiscal year 2025, with an operating margin of 20% and adjusted EPS of $5.1, all showing significant growth compared to the previous year [5][27]. - The company achieved a 5% revenue growth overall, with Coach leading at 10% growth [27][28]. - Gross margins increased by 210 basis points, and EPS grew by 19% year-over-year [27][31]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coach experienced a 10% revenue increase for the year, with a 13% constant currency growth in Q4, driven by strong performance in North America (up 16%), China (up 22%), and Europe (up 12%) [11][28]. - Kate Spade's revenue decreased by 13% in Q4, reflecting ongoing brand reset efforts, while the company is focused on increasing brand awareness and customer acquisition [19][21]. - Stuart Weitzman was sold to Caleres, aligning with Tapestry's strategy for disciplined capital allocation [24]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America sales increased by 8%, with significant contributions from Coach [28]. - In Europe, revenue grew by 10%, driven by local consumer spending and new customer acquisition, particularly among Gen Z [29]. - Greater China saw an 18% revenue growth, indicating strong performance across all channels, especially digital [29]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - Tapestry aims to leverage its competitive advantages, global scale, and strong fundamentals to drive sustainable growth [10][25]. - The company is focused on building emotional connections with younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and millennials, to enhance customer lifetime value [7][12]. - Tapestry is investing in brand marketing and product innovation to strengthen its market position and drive future growth [21][23]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating a complex macroeconomic environment, highlighting the resilience and agility of the business [6][10]. - The company anticipates continued mid-single-digit revenue growth for fiscal year 2026, despite facing tariff-related challenges [39][40]. - Management emphasized the importance of customer acquisition and retention, particularly among younger demographics, as a foundation for future growth [66][67]. Other Important Information - Tapestry returned $2.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal year 2025, including $300 million in dividends and $2 billion in share repurchases [32][33]. - The company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of over $850 million related to Kate Spade, reflecting current business trends and strategic investments [36]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us unpack your outlook for fiscal '26 and what you're seeing in the business right now? - Management highlighted strong top-line results and continued growth momentum, particularly at Coach, while acknowledging tariff impacts [50][52]. Question: Can you help us with the data or the new customer growth? - Management noted significant new customer acquisition, particularly among Gen Z and millennials, which is expected to drive future growth [66][67]. Question: Can you talk about structurally what is different today for Coach? - Management emphasized the brand's direct-to-consumer focus, geographic diversification, and data-driven decision-making as key structural advantages [94][96]. Question: Can you elaborate on the phasing of gross margin for fiscal '26? - Management indicated that gross margins would be stronger in the first half of the year, with tariff impacts expected to affect the second half [86][87].

Financial Performance Highlights - Tapestry delivered record revenue of over $7.01 billion, a 5% increase compared to the prior year[46,54] - The company achieved record EPS of $5.10, representing a 19% growth[46,54] - Adjusted free cash flow exceeded expectations, generating over $1.3 billion in the year[46] - Operating margin increased to 20.0%, driven by 210 basis points of gross margin expansion[46,54] Brand Performance - Coach's net sales reached $5.60 billion, with a 10% increase year-over-year[54] - Kate Spade's net sales were $1.20 billion, a 10% decrease year-over-year[54] - Stuart Weitzman's net sales were $215 million, an 11% decrease year-over-year[54] Geographical Trends - North America saw a 5% revenue increase, led by double-digit growth at Coach[50] - Europe experienced a 28% revenue increase, driven by DTC strength and new customer acquisition[50] - Greater China's revenue increased by 5%, with strength in Digital[50] Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook - The company expects revenue to approach $7.2 billion, with mid-single-digit growth[62] - Diluted adjusted EPS is projected to be $5.30 to $5.45, up 4% to 7%[62] - Free cash flow is expected to approach $1.3 billion[62] Shareholder Value - Tapestry returned $2.3 billion to shareholders in FY25 alone[68] - The company executed a $2 billion Accelerated Share Repurchase program[70] - The annual dividend rate increased by 14% to $1.60 per share in Fiscal 2026[70]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are becoming pessimistic about Lululemon, which may present a buying opportunity as the stock has declined significantly despite the company's potential for growth in international markets [2][12]. Group 1: Current Stock Performance - Lululemon's stock is down approximately 60% from its highs at the beginning of 2024, while the overall market is benefiting from AI growth [2]. - The brand is facing challenges such as slowing growth in North America, increased competition, and macroeconomic headwinds [2][4]. Group 2: Company Growth and Strategy - Despite recent challenges, Lululemon's revenue grew over 7% year-over-year last quarter, with a notable 22% growth in China [5]. - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond athleisure, including running shoes and accessories, which could enhance its market position [6]. - Lululemon is investing in international expansion, including a new store in Milan, indicating a commitment to growth in Europe [7]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - Lululemon maintains high profit margins of over 23% over the last 12 months [6]. - The stock is currently trading at a low P/E ratio of around 12, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its historical growth [12]. - The company is increasing its stock buyback program, having spent $430 million last quarter to reduce shares outstanding, which should positively impact earnings per share [9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Lululemon is expected to grow its revenue at an annual rate of 5%-10% for the remainder of the decade, despite current market challenges [8]. - The combination of a cheap valuation and ongoing stock buybacks may instill confidence in long-term investors [12].

Core Insights - Fossil Group, Inc. reported a second quarter 2025 net sales of $220 million, a decrease of 15.2% compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to category softness and a decline in smartwatch sales [5][11] - The company achieved a gross margin of 57.5%, an increase of 490 basis points year-over-year, attributed to improved product margins and reduced freight costs [5][11] - Operating income for the second quarter was $8 million, with an operating margin of 3.9%, marking a significant improvement from a loss of $34 million in the prior year [11][12] - Fossil Group announced a comprehensive refinancing plan aimed at strengthening its balance sheet and increasing liquidity [3][4] Financial Performance - Net sales for the second quarter totaled $220.4 million, down from $260 million in Q2 2024, with declines across all major regions: 19% in the Americas, 14% in Europe, and 12% in Asia [5][11] - Gross profit was $126.7 million, a decline of 7.4% from $136.9 million in the previous year, but gross margin improved to 57.5% from 52.6% [5][11] - Operating expenses decreased by 30.8% to $118.2 million, representing 53.7% of net sales compared to 65.7% in the prior year [5][6] Outlook and Guidance - The company raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, reflecting strong year-to-date results and ongoing progress in its turnaround strategy [8][12] - Worldwide net sales are expected to decline in the mid-teens, an improvement from previous guidance of a decline in the mid to high teens [12] - Adjusted operating margin is anticipated to be break-even to slightly positive, compared to prior guidance of negative low single digits [12] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of July 5, 2025, Fossil Group had total liquidity of $110.6 million, including $109.9 million in cash and cash equivalents [7] - Total debt stood at $179 million, with inventories decreasing by 11.9% to $178.1 million compared to the previous year [7][11]

Core Viewpoint - Steven Madden's Q2 2025 earnings report highlighted challenges from new tariffs on U.S. imports and the integration of the Kurt Geiger acquisition, leading to operational headwinds and margin compression, with management withdrawing guidance for fiscal 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty [1][18]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.20, a significant decline of 64.9% from $0.57 in Q2 2024 [2] - GAAP revenue increased by 6.8% year-over-year to $559.0 million, but fell short of analyst estimates of $578.94 million [2] - Non-GAAP net income dropped to $13.9 million, down 66.3% from $41.2 million in Q2 2024 [2][8] - Gross profit margin was 41.9%, slightly up from 41.5% in Q2 2024, while operating margin fell sharply to 4.0% from 10.4% [2][7] Business Overview - Steven Madden is known for its trend-focused footwear, handbags, and accessories, with a diverse brand portfolio including Steve Madden, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, and Kurt Geiger [3] - The company emphasizes creative design, rapid market response, and a mix of wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels [3] Strategic Focus - Recent priorities include accelerating product design, expanding international markets, and managing a multi-channel distribution network [4] - Key success factors involve staying close to consumer trends, maintaining supply chain flexibility, and managing costs [4] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Kurt Geiger contributed to top-line growth but introduced complexities, particularly due to its reliance on China for sourcing [6][12] - Management believes Kurt Geiger will be a long-term growth driver despite the challenges posed by tariffs [6] Revenue Breakdown - Wholesale revenue declined by 6.4%, with a 12.8% drop when excluding Kurt Geiger; DTC revenue surged 43.3% including Kurt Geiger, but organic DTC revenue fell 3% [5] - Licensing fee income grew 57.8% to $2.9 million year-over-year [5] Margin and Cost Analysis - Gross profit margin compressed due to rising input costs and tariffs, with wholesale adjusted gross margin falling to 30.9% from 33.1% in Q2 2024 [7] - Operating expenses rose to 47.2% of revenue, driven by acquisition-related costs, with a reported loss from operations of $40.3 million [8] Supply Chain Adjustments - The company is shifting sourcing away from China, expecting U.S. imports from China to fall to the mid-teens percentage of total production by fall 2025 [14] - New sourcing locations include Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, and Brazil, which may increase costs due to higher FOB prices [14] Brand Strategy - The integration of Kurt Geiger into Steven Madden's portfolio is a major focus, leveraging international and U.S. retail networks to scale the brand [17] Outlook - Management did not provide financial guidance for fiscal 2025 due to ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade conditions [18]