Core Insights - Holiday shoppers are willing to spend but are seeking value, leading to increased traffic and sales at Tanger's outlet centers [1][2] - Retailers are responding to consumer demand by offering promotions, resulting in full parking lots and steady activity during the holiday season [2] - Mastercard reported a 3.9% year-over-year increase in retail sales for November and December, while Visa noted a 4.2% increase in holiday retail spending [3] Retail Performance - Simon Property Group reported a 6.4% year-over-year increase in traffic at its malls and premium outlets during the Black Friday weekend, with many brands experiencing double-digit sales increases [4] - The overall retail environment is thriving, despite a decline in consumer confidence [4] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board reported a 3.8-point drop in consumer confidence in December, marking the fifth consecutive decline, affecting various demographics [5] - Factors influencing consumer sentiment include prices, inflation, tariffs, and personal finance issues [6]

Joe, always good to see you. Thanks so much for joining me. >> Thank you.Very good to be with you, Jennifer. Happy holidays. >> Happy holidays to you.And what a way to kick off the holidays with such a stellar third quarter GDP number up 4.3% a full percentage point above expectations and driven by consumer spending up three and a half% though a large chunk of that from healthcare spending. Though we also saw trade really add to this number as well. Joe, can we see this level of growth sustained into next y ...

Donald Trump said he expects his Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates if the economy is doing well, the latest signal that the president is eager for a nominee committed to borrowing cost cuts as he nears an announcement of his choice to replace Jerome Powell. “I want my new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever,” Trump said in a social media post Tuesday. “Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!” ...

The roaring 20s are alive and well. That according to our next guest, Ed Yard Denny. He's the president of Yard Denny Research.He joins us now. It's good to see you. So, we were just a little delayed on the roaring 20s, maybe thanks to co and here we are about to regroup.>> Well, I think we've been doing pretty well since uh since the beginning of the of the decade. I mean, think of all the uh shocks that the economy has been hit by the pandemic, the lockdowns for two months. Uh then the social distancing, ...

Market Trends & Economic Indicators - GDP增长远超预期，达到4.3%，为2023年第三季度以来的最高水平 [1][9] - 个人消费增长3.5%，储蓄率为4.2%，高于历史平均水平2% [9][10] - 生产力出现数十年未见的增长 [11] - 全球范围内利率都在上升，日本今年已两次加息，年初加息50个基点，最近又加息25个基点 [4][5] Interest Rate & Monetary Policy - Apollo的Torstston认为长期利率将维持在较高水平 [1] - 德意志银行提高了收益率预期 [1] - 市场可能需要重新考虑美联储采取鹰派立场的可能性 [2][16] - 市场已消化了美联储可能放松政策的预期，这对小盘股等板块有利 [3] - 长期利率可能维持在3%-4%的水平，而非0%-1% [6] - 如果美联储采取更强硬的立场，市场可能会出现波动 [17] Investment Strategy & Risk Management - 投资者应为长期高利率做好准备 [1][13] - 在利率波动较大的情况下，投资者可能更倾向于大型股和优质金融股 [15] - 建议投资者在市场强劲时适当降低风险，例如减少成长型股票的配置 [19][20] - 美国10年期国债收益率自2023年6月以来一直未低于3.5%，在此期间标普500指数上涨超过60% [14] Earnings & Equity Market Outlook - 标普500指数在2023年上涨24%，2024年上涨23%，目前已上涨17% [9] - 在GDP增长2%的情况下，企业盈利通常增长8%-10% [11] - 预计明年企业盈利将实现10%到15%左右的增长 [12] - 即使经济数据表现良好，未来的经济走向更为重要 [19]

Headline though, GDP much stronger than expected, 4-3, highest read since Q3 of 2023. You know, Josh, I I wonder what this does to the thinking on rates. Torstston at Apollo says long-term interest rates will remain higher for longer.Investors should plan accordingly. Deutsche Bank today ratchet higher for yields is a significant story. I mean, we've been talking about and gaming out and planning for a rate cut in early 26.What if the Fed takes a hawkish tilt. I mean, do investors need to rethink this whole ...

Economic Growth and Productivity - The recent GDP print indicates a strong performance, marking the highest growth in two years, although it predates the government shutdown [2][4] - Productivity is currently driving economic growth, which is beneficial as it allows for wage increases and higher profit margins for companies, but it also leads to a reduced need for hiring [3][4] - The Fed's concerns about inflation may be misplaced, as inflation has moderated and is not expected to rise significantly [5][6] Business Investment and AI Impact - Business investment is anticipated to be strong next year, with AI playing a significant role in this growth [7][10] - Spending on data centers and the electric grid is expected to be a crucial part of business investment [8] - The momentum from AI productivity gains is expected to build on the solid productivity growth observed over the past two years [10][16] Labor Market Dynamics - There is a real concern regarding a softening labor market, driven by demographic changes and immigration trends, which may hinder firms' ability to hire [17][18] - A skills mismatch and slower workforce growth could lead to lower innovation and growth in the near term, although productivity from AI investments may offset these challenges [18] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The economic outlook for next year is generally positive, with expectations of a rate cut potentially occurring in 2026, although the timing remains uncertain [19][20] - The Fed is expected to be cautious in its approach to rate cuts, influenced by data and political pressures, with a focus on maintaining institutional integrity [21][22]

Uruguay’s central bank surprised investors with a half-point reduction in borrowing costs that left the benchmark interest rate at 7.5% after months of below-target inflation. https://t.co/gvlWLZFp2b ...

Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Kaden here in Chicago. Joining us now in studio is Marta Norton, the chief investment strategist at Empower.Marta, always great to have you with us. Now, let's talk about the data that we've gotten of late. This it seems to have been digested.Okay. But we got our our CPI, our delayed CPI, our our delayed jobs report beat expectations, 4.6% unemployment. We got GDP today.Economy grew more than expected. But I continue to hear this echoed sentiment that people are n ...

Let's get the bond report. Rick Santelli has more on how the markets are reacting to all of these crossurrens. Rick, what can you tell us.>> Well, you know, I like the way the charts tell a picture. If you look at twos and tens when the number was released, a couple things should jump out at you. The twos definitely seem to be more aggressive in holding the upside.I don't think that's for any big reasons to explain the Fed or uh acknowledge percentages and probabilities. I think it's purely the next chart w ...