Labor Market & Inflation - The ADP data may not strongly correlate with the official government jobs report [1] - Recent data indicates a pullback in the labor market combined with accelerating inflation, which has risen from 23% to 3% [2] - The government shutdown is complicating the Fed's ability to project the labor market and inflation [3] Federal Reserve (The Fed) Policy - Chair Powell tempered expectations of a rate cut in December, emphasizing data dependency [4] - There is conflict within the FOMC regarding future policy decisions [5] - The decision regarding a rate cut in December is expected to be very close [5] Fiscal Policy & Housing Market - The odds of $2,000 tariff rebate checks are considered to be under 1% [7] - Tariff revenue was initially intended to offset $1 trillion of the $4 trillion cost of tax cuts [8] - The Supreme Court appears skeptical of Trump's tariffs, potentially leading to their reversal and refunds to companies [8][9] - A 50-year mortgage saves approximately $200 per month compared to a 30-year mortgage for a $400,000 house with a 6% interest rate, but results in paying $320,000 more over the loan's duration [11][12] - The speaker suggests the administration should focus on proven housing affordability solutions like increasing housing supply and zoning reform [12] - The current tariff policy is significantly increasing the cost of constructing new homes [14]

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Joining me for more is Steve Oddland, president and CEO of the conference board. Steve, it's good to speak with you and that that stat takes me by surprise, especially given the NRF stat we saw where they suggested we could see the first trillion dollar Christmas or holiday season. Um, what are you seeing in your data and why.>> Yeah, well, the NRF stat is a little narrower than ours. Ours is all holiday spending on travel, on clothes, on parties, on food, the whole thing. And and it's expected to be down a ...

Joining me for more is Steve Oddland, president and CEO of the conference board. Steve, it's good to speak with you and that that stat takes me by surprise, especially given the NRF stat we saw where they suggested we could see the first trillion dollar Christmas or holiday season. Um, what are you seeing in your data and why.>> Yeah, well, the NRF stat is a little narrower than ours. Ours is all holiday spending on travel, on clothes, on parties, on food, the whole thing. And and it's expected to be down a ...

Optimism among America’s small businesses fell last month amid labor and profit headaches.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.That’s according to the October edition of the National Federation of Indepe ...

Core Insights - The controversy surrounding Thanksgiving dinner pricing highlights the complexities of measuring inflation, emphasizing the use of broad-based indexes over individual prices [1][2][5] - Walmart's Thanksgiving meal deal, priced under $4 per person, is the lowest since 2021, but comparisons to previous years are complicated by changes in the number of items included [1][3][5] - President Trump leveraged Walmart's pricing to argue that his administration's policies reduced living costs, contrasting with criticisms of the current administration's economic management [1][3][5] Economic Implications - Experts advocate for broad-based consumer price indexes to provide a clearer picture of living costs, rather than focusing on individual item prices [2][7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 3% over the past year, with grocery prices specifically rising by 2.7%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% inflation [8] Political Context - Trump's assertion that Thanksgiving dinner costs 25% less than the previous year has been challenged by fact-checkers, noting that the meal deal's composition has changed significantly [3][5] - The White House supported its economic narrative with data from DoorDash, indicating a 14% decrease in a breakfast basics index since March, although the overall index was only down 1.7% over the past year [6][8]

What's the next step. The title report. The next step for China's bull markets, where they'll look for the next step.Yeah, I think, you know, for next year we still remain bullish. To me, I think the big change is really the global monetary order reconstruction from a, you know, strong dollar to a weak dollar and then from China us constantly in the trade negotiations to a G-2 framework. And then probably more importantly is the deep sea moment, not just in Asia but many other industries where there is a ma ...

So we have the ADP saying that jobs fell an average of 11,250 on a weekly basis in the four weeks up to October 25 John. Now, on a headline basis, taking that at face value, it suggests it certainly leans against the labour market stabilisation idea. It probably does capture some of those headlines we've been seeing on big high profile companies making job cuts across the country.There are some caveats with this data. Number one, it's new. So old economies are getting used to it and working out what trends ...

Hey, with us now we have US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. Uh Mr. . Secretary, thanks so much for being with us.Greatly appreciate it. Um I want to ask you about the government shutdown. It's over now.There had been estimates before that it might take 1% GDP uh in the fourth quarter uh from the US economy. With it coming to an end, what are your what's your best estimate right now about uh how much uh the shutdown will have ended up costing the American people and how quickly the economy will bounce back ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy makers are divided on the necessity for further rate cuts this year, with discussions highlighting the implications of the current inflation target and its alignment with the Fed's dual mandate [1][10]. Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Fed's target of 2% inflation is viewed as a deviation from the original goal of price stability, which some argue should be zero [2][3]. - There is skepticism regarding the Fed's ability to accurately measure inflation, with different indices leading to confusion about the real impact on average American families [8][9]. - The current inflation rate is estimated to be around 3%, but there is doubt about the reliability of various measures used by the Fed [7][10]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Interest Rates - The argument is made that the Fed's approach to managing inflation through high interest rates restricts access to capital, which is detrimental to small and medium-sized businesses that drive job creation [14][21]. - There is a belief that increasing output, rather than restricting growth, is a more effective way to combat inflation [22]. - The Fed's current methods are criticized as being overly reliant on Keynesian models, which may not account for the benefits of lower taxes and deregulation [13][14]. Group 3: Trust in Government and Financial Instruments - A proposal is made for the Treasury to issue gold-backed long-term bonds to restore trust in government and provide a reliable store of value for investors [17][19]. - The discussion emphasizes the need for honest government and sound money, criticizing perpetual deficit spending as immoral and corrupt [16][19]. - The potential for gold-linked Treasury bonds to create demand and signal a move towards sound financial practices is highlighted [19][20].