Group 1 - Amazon shares have declined over 30% from all-time highs due to macroeconomic uncertainty affecting investor sentiment [1] - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), Amazon shares are down 2%, while the S&P 500 has gained nearly 6% [1]

22 April 2025 India Strategy India Strategy: Why we upgraded India in Jan? Revisiting thesis. Venugopal Garre +65 6326 7643 venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Arela +91 226 842 1482 nikhil.arela@bernsteinsg.com There are numerous global events impacting markets, making it challenging for investors to develop a clear opinion. We revisit our early January market upgrade and discuss how the underlying macroeconomic prospects and views have evolved since then. Things we anticipated: Decision making is highl ...

Group 1 - The investment approach focuses on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities [1] - The analysis is based on bottom-up evaluation, emphasizing the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies [1] - The goal is to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The first quarter revenue reached $787.6 million, an increase of 4.3% compared to the same quarter last year [5][11] - The operating ratio for the first quarter was 91.1%, deteriorating by 670 basis points from 84.4% in the previous year [9][16] - Diluted earnings per share were $1.86, down from $3.38 in the first quarter of the previous year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tonnage increased by 11%, driven by a 2.9% increase in shipments and a 7.8% increase in average weight per shipment [12] - Revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharge, increased by 2.3% to $300.76 compared to $293.96 in the first quarter of the previous year [11] - Yield excluding fuel surcharge declined by 5.1%, while yield including fuel surcharge decreased by 5.8% [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Newer markets contributed significantly to growth, with the majority of shipment growth coming from facilities opened in the last three years [18] - Legacy facilities experienced a slight decline in shipments from February to March, contrasting with the expected seasonal increase [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on execution and leveraging investments made in the network over the past few years [5] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining service levels and optimizing pricing and mix to adapt to the current macroeconomic environment [10][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that customers are cautious and adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the uncertain macro environment [8][19] - Despite challenges, management remains confident in the long-term growth opportunities and the value proposition of the company [19] Other Important Information - The company opened 21 new terminals in the past year, which are expected to enhance service offerings and operational efficiencies over time [18] - Adverse weather conditions in the first quarter led to significant operational disruptions, impacting key markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston [8][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the current pricing environment? - Management indicated that while there is pressure on yield metrics due to weight per shipment, they remain focused on pricing and believe the environment is consistent with past experiences [22][25] Question: What are the drivers affecting revenue per shipment? - The majority of growth is coming from newer markets, which have different pricing dynamics compared to legacy markets, affecting overall revenue per shipment [27][28] Question: How does the company plan to manage costs in a slower demand backdrop? - Management is actively looking at cost actions and network optimization to align resources with available freight [41][42] Question: What is the visibility on volume and customer sentiment? - Management noted that customer sentiment is cautious, with a wait-and-see approach impacting volume forecasts [46][48] Question: What are the year-over-year trends in legacy terminals? - Shipments in legacy markets were down year-over-year, reflecting broader macroeconomic trends [53] Question: How does the company interpret realized pricing versus contractual renewals? - Management clarified that while contractual renewals show strong metrics, actual realization may differ due to customer options and market conditions [65]

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo Inc. experienced a decline in shares following a reported sales drop for the first quarter, reflecting broader challenges in the market [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - PepsiCo's first-quarter earnings were reported at $1.48 per share, slightly below consensus estimates of $1.49 per share, indicating results were in line with subdued investor expectations [4]. - The company is expected to see an 11% year-on-year decline in earnings for the second quarter, projecting earnings of $2.03 per share, primarily due to weaker Frito sales and operating deleverage [3]. - Management has lowered the full-year EPS growth guidance to around flat, down from a prior projection of mid-single-digit growth, citing higher supply chain costs and macroeconomic volatility [5]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - BofA Securities analyst Bryan Spillane maintained a Neutral rating on PepsiCo, reducing the price target from $155 to $150, while noting that the quarterly results were broadly in line with consensus estimates [2]. - Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $160, acknowledging that the results were disappointing but not unexpected [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite challenges anticipated in 2025, including tariff costs of around 40 cents per share, there is potential for PepsiCo's growth to reaccelerate due to earlier comparisons, initial returns on investments, continued international strength, and a focus on innovation [5].

Company Overview - Opendoor Technologies' shares dropped 23% this week following data indicating that housing sales have slowed to their lowest pace since 2009 [1] - The company's revenue fell 26% in 2024 to $5.2 billion, and its net loss widened to $392 million, suggesting ongoing financial struggles [6] Industry Trends - Housing inventory has increased, but sales have declined as potential buyers are deterred by high prices, elevated interest rates, and economic uncertainty [2] - Existing-home sales dropped 5.9% in March compared to February, marking a 2.4% year-over-year decline [4] - Mortgage rates are currently around 6.8% for a 30-year mortgage, which, while not historically high, is significantly elevated compared to previous years [5] Economic Sentiment - Consumer confidence regarding the economy is at a 12-year low, impacting buyers' willingness to purchase homes [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impact on the economy is causing consumers to delay house purchases, further affecting the housing market [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seacoast reported net income of $31.5 million or $0.37 per share in Q1 2025, with pretax pre-provision income increasing by $2.7 million to $50.6 million [9] - The net interest margin increased by nine basis points to 3.48%, while the cost of deposits declined by 15 basis points to 1.93% [5][10] - Adjusted pre-tax pre-provision earnings grew by 22% compared to the same quarter one year ago, and tangible book value per share increased by 10% year over year [5][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan production showed strong growth at an annualized rate of 6%, with total loans outstanding increasing at a rate of 5.6% [5][15] - Noninterest income, excluding securities activity, was $22 million, reflecting an 8% increase from Q1 2024, driven by a 20% increase in wealth management revenue and a 25% increase in insurance agency income year over year [13][14] - Noninterest expense for the first quarter was $90.6 million, including $1.1 million in merger-related expenses [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total deposits increased to $12.6 billion, growing at an annualized rate of 11%, with noninterest-bearing accounts growing at 17% annualized [20] - The average yield on securities increased to 3.88%, benefiting from recent purchases at higher yields [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined growth and has invested in talent to drive new relationships, with 10 new revenue-producing bankers onboarded during the quarter [6][11] - Seacoast is on track to close the acquisition of Heartland Bancshares in Q3 2025, which is expected to enhance its market position [8][11] - The company maintains a conservative approach to credit and is closely monitoring the potential impacts of economic and fiscal policy decisions on borrowers [18][84] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged emerging risks in the macroeconomic environment but emphasized the strength of the company's balance sheet and its position to navigate turbulent times [4][6] - The company expects mid to high single-digit loan growth for the remainder of 2025, contingent on market stability [36][61] - Management remains optimistic about the growth outlook, citing strong customer commitment to projects despite economic uncertainties [60][61] Other Important Information - The allowance for credit losses totaled $140.3 million, representing 1.34% of total loans, remaining flat from the prior quarter [18] - The company has a strong capital position, with a Tier one capital ratio of 14.7% and tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio of 9.6% [11][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on securities trade related to Heartland deal - Management confirmed that the securities trade was a strategic move to pre-purchase securities they intend to retain post-transaction [29] Question: Thoughts on core loan yields and NIM - Management explained that the increase in core loan yields was due to a mix of fixed and adjustable loans, and they expect continued NIM expansion [32][34] Question: Loan growth outlook and capital deployment strategy - Management expressed confidence in achieving high single-digit loan growth and indicated readiness for future M&A opportunities while remaining disciplined [35][50] Question: Credit quality and sector monitoring - Management noted that they are closely monitoring C&I businesses for potential tariff impacts but have not seen significant issues yet [81][82] Question: Impact of residential market conditions in Florida - Management reported no observed weakness in the residential market, indicating stability despite rising insurance costs [92][94]

Core Insights - Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. reported a net income of $13.6 million for Q1 2025, nearly unchanged from $13.7 million in Q4 2024, resulting in basic and diluted EPS of $0.90 and $0.78 respectively [1][7] - The stability in net income was primarily due to higher net interest income, supported by steady loan growth and strong asset quality, although this was partially offset by increased provisions for credit losses and rising operational expenses [1][7] - The company is expected to continue focusing on operational efficiency through a 1% improvement initiative, despite anticipated impacts from securitization [1] Financial Metrics - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 3.80%, an increase from 3.71% in Q4 2024 [7] - Gross loans reached $3.99 billion as of March 31, 2025 [7] - The efficiency ratio for the quarter was 61.23%, up from 58.80% in the previous quarter [7]

Core Insights - Saia, Inc. reported a decline in diluted earnings per share to $1.86 for Q1 2025, down from $3.38 in Q1 2024, reflecting challenges in the macroeconomic environment and adverse weather conditions [1][14]. Financial Performance - Operating revenue for Q1 2025 was $787.6 million, a 4.3% increase from $754.8 million in Q1 2024 [7]. - Operating income decreased significantly by 40.5% to $70.2 million compared to $117.9 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - The operating ratio worsened to 91.1% from 84.4% year-over-year [7][16]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $49.8 million, down from $90.7 million in Q1 2024 [14]. Operational Highlights - LTL shipments per workday increased by 4.6%, while LTL tonnage per workday rose by 12.7% [7][16]. - LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, decreased by 5.1%, while LTL revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, increased by 2.3% [7][16]. Challenges and Outlook - The company faced an uncertain macroeconomic environment, leading to flat shipment growth in March compared to February [2]. - Adverse weather conditions in the southern U.S. impacted operations in key regions [2]. - Despite these challenges, the company remains focused on customer service and support as it navigates through 2025 [3]. Financial Position and Capital Expenditures - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $16.5 million in cash and total debt of $295.5 million, compared to $12.3 million in cash and $84.1 million in debt a year earlier [4]. - Net capital expenditures for Q1 2025 were $202.1 million, down from $456.8 million in the same period of 2024, with an anticipated total of approximately $650 million for the year [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net revenues decreased by 2.9% year over year, primarily due to a challenging macroeconomic environment [16] - The Mexican peso depreciated approximately 20% year over year, impacting gross margins and profitability [16][22] - Consolidated EBITDA decreased by 29.1%, with Betterware Mexico EBITDA falling by 31.6% and Jafra Mexico EBITDA decreasing by 25.2% [19][20] - Consolidated EPS decreased by 48.7%, reflecting lower sales and overall profitability [22] - The net debt to EBITDA ratio increased to 2.08%, compared to 1.83% in Q1 2024, but remains in line with internal policy [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Betterware Mexico revenue declined by 9.8% year over year, while Jafra's growth slowed from double digits to single digits [17] - Consolidated gross margin contracted by 303 basis points, driven by peso depreciation and increased costs of imported goods [18] - Jafra Mexico experienced margin compression due to investments in volume-driving promotions [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer trends in Mexico showed significant softening, particularly in discretionary categories like household goods [7] - Disruption in consumption was noted in both the US and China, affecting overall sales [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strategic pricing, increased promotional activity, and deeper engagement with the sales force to drive growth [26][29] - Plans to monitor sourcing options due to tensions in China, with potential manufacturing alternatives being evaluated [29] - The company is halting expansion into the US market for Betterware, while continuing to invest in Jafra US [63][65] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the current macroeconomic challenges but expressed confidence in the long-term growth fundamentals of the business [35][72] - The company maintains its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting net revenue and EBITDA growth in the range of 6 to 9% [24][60] Other Important Information - The board of directors proposed a 200 million peso dividend for Q1 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns despite current economic uncertainties [23][24] - Free cash flow was negative for the quarter, attributed to increased working capital and higher tax payments [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inventory levels and future cash flow - Management noted that the increase in inventory was a one-time event related to product renovations and innovations, expecting a decrease in the future [40] Question: Opportunities from China - Management acknowledged a decrease in container prices as a potential advantage but could not confirm improved pricing from Chinese manufacturers yet [44] Question: FX impact and future comparisons - Management confirmed that Q1 was the hardest comparison due to significant peso depreciation, with expectations for more stable comparisons in the coming quarters [48] Question: Quarter performance and trends - Management observed a softening in consumption as Q1 progressed, with expectations for stabilization rather than a rebound in the near term [54][60] Question: Halting US expansion - Management clarified that the halt refers specifically to Betterware US, while Jafra US will continue to operate and invest in growth [63][65]