Inflation and Productivity - Inflation remains contained in goods prices, with inflation expectations well anchored [1][16] - Productivity is rising alongside GDP growth, while the labor market is slowing, indicating firms are trying to do more with less [2][10] - The adjustment of 50 basis points has supported the labor market while maintaining a restrictive policy to exert downward pressure on inflation [3][8] Labor Market Dynamics - There is a significant slowdown in payroll growth, with wage growth moderating, indicating a negative demand shock [18][21] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and firing rates, necessitating close monitoring of firms' actions [22][34] - Employers are exploring AI to improve productivity, but it is still early to assess its full impact [4][13] Monetary Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve is focused on balancing inflation control with productivity gains, aiming to restore price stability to around 2% [8][14] - Financial market conditions are one of many inputs into decision-making, with a focus on achieving price stability and full employment [24][25] - Monetary policy acts with a lag, and decisions are made with a long-term perspective [30][31] Economic Indicators and Consumer Behavior - Observations of consumer behavior, such as retail activity and attendance at events, indicate a slower economy but continued participation [35][36] - The Fed relies on both government data and private sector surveys to inform its decisions, emphasizing the importance of on-the-ground insights [32][34] Committee Dynamics - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) exhibits healthy differences of opinion, which is seen as a strength in policy-making during uncertain times [38][39] - Historical comparisons to the 1970s and 1990s are used to inform current policy discussions and decisions [7][11]

US consumer durables and personal goods inflation decelerated in October for the first time in three months, reflecting a slight pickup in the degree of merchant discounting, according to OpenBrand price data https://t.co/ePl374VzTd ...

Economic Overview - Last week's economic data presented mixed signals, with consumer sentiment dropping to a near-record low and the manufacturing sector continuing its contraction, while the services sector showed signs of expansion [1] - The S&P 500 experienced its first weekly loss in over a month, declining by 1.6% [10] Employment Data - The October ADP employment report indicated that the private sector added 42,000 jobs, surpassing the expected addition of 32,000 jobs, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in September [3] - Job gains were primarily driven by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, which added 47,000 jobs, with large companies contributing significantly by adding 74,000 jobs [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell over 6% to 50.3, marking its lowest level since 2022 and reflecting a nearly 30% decline compared to the previous year [5][6] - The decline in consumer confidence was widespread, with notable exceptions for consumers with significant stock holdings [6] Inflation Expectations - Near-term inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% in October to 4.7% in November, while long-term expectations decreased from 3.9% to 3.6% for the five-year outlook [7] Manufacturing and Services Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7, indicating a faster rate of contraction [8] - Conversely, the U.S. services sector returned to expansion with the ISM Services PMI rising to 52.4, marking its highest level since February and indicating eight months of expansion this year [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 saw fluctuations, ultimately closing down 1.6%, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reflecting the same decline [10] - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.11%, while the 2-year note finished at 3.55% [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 66% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with markets anticipating two additional cuts in 2026 [11] Upcoming Economic Data - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed key economic indicators, including the Consumer and Producer Price Indices and Retail Sales report, leading to a light economic calendar for the week ahead [12][13]

A deep freeze in the Northern Hemisphere would likely mean higher power and natural gas prices, adding to the cost burden for ratepayers as inflation remains stubbornly high, writes @WeatherSullivan @joewertz and @maryhui https://t.co/eeVKfoyyvd ...

CNBC and the National Retail Federation out with the latest retail monitor. Steve Leeman joins us right now with those details. Good morning, Steve. >> Morning, Becky.Consumer spending bounced back in October after a sharp fall in September with the gains in the CNBC NRF retail monitor across most sectors adding up to a a good and a strong start for retail in the fourth quarter. Here's the data. The retail monitor powered by actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions shows retail Xauto and gas ...

Core Insights - Consumer spending rebounded in October after a decline in September, indicating a strong start for the retail sector in Q4 [2][6] - The retail monitor, based on credit card spending data, showed a 0.6% increase in retail sales excluding auto and gas, compared to a 0.7% decline in September [2][3] - Year-over-year growth rates for core retail sales decreased slightly, with a drop from 5.4% to 5% [3] Sector Performance - Most retail sectors experienced growth, with digital products leading at a 2% increase, followed by clothing and accessories at 1.4% [4] - Restaurants, beverages, and health and personal care sectors also performed well, while building and garden supplies saw a decline of 0.8% [5] Economic Context - Consumer spending remains robust, supported by wage growth exceeding inflation, low unemployment rates, and positive wealth effects from strong stock market performance [6] - Despite mixed economic data, October's performance is seen as a positive indicator for the upcoming holiday season, although historical correlations between October gains and holiday sales are weak [6] Challenges Ahead - Key concerns for the retail sector include the impact of goods inflation, tariffs, and early signs of a cooling job market on holiday shopping [7] - The ongoing government shutdown has affected the release of critical economic data, creating uncertainty about the accuracy and timeliness of upcoming reports [9][10]

The US BLS is supposed to release the October CPI report on Thursday October 13th, although this is uncertain due to the ongoing shutdown. Either way, the market analysts released the consensus expectations. Overall, analysts expect thatAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha ...

Macro Signals 2025. Photo by BeInCrypto Three key macro signals just turned, and investors may be underestimating what that means for the next leg of both traditional and crypto markets. Inflation is steady but not falling, liquidity appears frozen but only temporarily, and the business cycle’s weakest point may already be behind us. December, as analysts warn, could be “very interesting.” Inflation Holds Steady as Policy Pressure Eases Real-time inflation data from Truflation, a blockchain-based gauge, ...

Core Insights - Money market accounts (MMAs) are highlighted as a favorable option for storing cash due to their relatively high interest rates, liquidity, and flexibility [1][2] - Despite a recent decline in rates, some MMAs still offer over 4% APY, making them competitive for savers [3][12] Historical Context - MMA rates have experienced significant fluctuations, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [4][6] - Following the 2008 financial crisis, MMA rates dropped to between 0.10% and 0.50% due to the Fed's near-zero federal funds rate [5] - The COVID-19 pandemic prompted another reduction in rates, but aggressive rate hikes began in 2022 to combat inflation, resulting in historically high MMA rates by late 2023 [7][8] Current Market Analysis - As of 2025, MMA rates remain elevated compared to historical standards but are on a downward trend following recent Fed rate cuts [8] - Online banks and credit unions are currently offering the highest MMA rates [8] Considerations for Consumers - When selecting an MMA, factors beyond interest rates, such as minimum balance requirements, fees, and withdrawal limits, are crucial for evaluating overall value [9][10] - Many MMAs require a significant minimum balance to access the highest rates, with some accounts charging monthly fees that can diminish interest earnings [10] - It is essential to ensure that the chosen account is insured by the FDIC or NCUA, which protects deposits up to $250,000 [11] Financial Projections - The national average interest rate for MMAs is currently 0.59%, while top accounts can offer rates around 4% to 4.50% APY [12] - For example, a deposit of $50,000 in an MMA with a 4.5% APY would yield approximately $2,303 in interest over one year [13]

Today’s CD rates still hover well above the national average. The Federal Reserve reduced its target interest rate three times in 2024 and recently announced its second rate cut of 2025. This has a ripple effect on deposit account rates, which means now could be your last chance to lock in today's high rates with a certificate of deposit (CD). Here’s a look at today’s best CD rates and where you can find the best offers. Best CD rates today As of November 10, 2025, the highest CD rate is 4.25% APY. This ...