"Households are exposed to much more risk and sources of shock than businesses," says Kathryn Edwards, a labor economist and the co-host of the Optimist Economy podcast. "The risk of shock is getting higher, the cost of shock is getting higher, and the insurance is getting worse."The hidden crisis in the American economy is personal insecurity. Even for people who are generally fine, there's a nagging feeling the rug could be pulled out from under them at any moment, whether it's a layoff, a divorce, or nex ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.3% [1] - Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, following a contraction of 0.6% in the first quarter, indicating a 2.5% annualized growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] GDP Components - The increase in real GDP in the third quarter was driven by higher consumer spending, exports, and government spending, although this was partially offset by a decrease in investment [5] - Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose by 3% in the third quarter, slightly above the 2.9% increase in the second quarter [8] Inflation Metrics - The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.4% in the third quarter, up from a 2% increase in the second quarter [9] - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% in the third quarter, compared to a 2.1% increase in the prior quarter [9] Future Estimates - The third-quarter GDP figure is subject to revision, with the final estimate scheduled for release on January 22 [12][14]

Core Insights - The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, surpassing expectations and indicating tighter monetary conditions may persist [2] - Core PCE inflation increased to 2.9%, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] - Real personal consumption expenditures rose by 3.5%, indicating strong consumer spending [3] Impact on Crypto Markets - Strong economic growth reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts, which could lead to higher rates being maintained for an extended period [4] - This environment historically pressures altcoins more than Bitcoin, affecting their performance negatively [4] - Bitcoin showed relative stability, trading near $87,800 with a market cap above $1.75 trillion, indicating limited panic selling [5] Market Dynamics - Higher interest rates increase returns on cash and bonds, making liquidity more selective [6] - Speculative assets, including altcoins, may struggle to attract new capital in this environment [6]

Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence data for December came in at 89.1%, below the expected 91, but higher than November's reading, which was the second lowest since the pandemic [6][8] - The current conditions index has significantly declined, indicating consumers are feeling worse about their financial situation, with a notable drop into negative territory for the first time in four years [11][12] - A slowdown in economic growth is expected going into 2026, influenced by high inflation and tariffs impacting consumer prices [14][19] Restaurant Industry Trends - The restaurant industry is experiencing a shift, with a 10% move away from dining out towards grocery shopping due to high prices, particularly in the QSR burger segment, which has seen over 50% price increases since 2019 [44][45] - Domino's Pizza is identified as a top pick for 2026, having only increased prices by about 27% since 2019, making it more affordable compared to QSR burger chains [47][48] - The value meal strategy is becoming crucial as QSR chains like McDonald's aim to regain lost customers by suppressing check growth to align with grocery inflation [51] Venture Capital and AI Investment - In 2025, 40% of deals and 65% of capital invested were in AI companies, indicating a strong focus on AI across various sectors, including life sciences and fintech [79][80] - The investment environment for AI companies is expected to remain robust in 2026, with a quality gap emerging where only companies meeting high growth benchmarks will attract significant funding [82][83] - The IPO landscape is anticipated to be favorable for sectors like crypto and AI, with companies like Circle benefiting from regulatory support [84][86] Tax Implications for Consumers - The child tax credit has been increased by $200, and a new $6,000 deduction for seniors will be available, providing some tax relief for families in 2026 [21][25] - Tariffs are estimated to cost US households an average of $1,100 in 2025, expected to rise to $1,400 in 2026, impacting consumer spending and sentiment [27][29] - Despite tax cuts, the burden of tariffs may lead consumers to feel worse off, as the perception of affordability is affected by rising prices [40][42] Future of Circle and Economic Infrastructure - Circle's CEO envisions the company playing a significant role in the future economic infrastructure, focusing on AI-driven productivity gains and the frictionless exchange of value [70][72] - The company aims to be foundational to a new economic system that integrates AI and enhances global economic prosperity through innovative financial solutions [75][76]

Inflation is still eating away at people's budgets, as only the pace has slowed, that too at a snail's pace. ...

Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to opening bid. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi.I'm coming in hot today. I had a lot of caffeine. So, if you're in that easy peasy holiday mindset, it's time to get out of it. Get out of it now.Here are my uh five things that you need to know today. One, gold prices have hit another record and are up a sparkly 70% this year. Gold has seen 50 record highs this year.Two, copper prices have also hit another record. Copper is up 30% this year. Sure is lots of copper b ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backed the idea of reconsidering the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target once the US has sustainably brought price increases back down to that pace https://t.co/AFZgg0dAuw ...

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the most rapid expansion in two years, as government and consumer spending, as well as exports, all increased.U.S. gross domestic product from July through September — the economy's total output of goods and services — rose from its 3.8% growth rate in the April-June quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday in a report delayed by the government shutdown. Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet forecast growth of 3% ...

The US economy grew at an unexpectedly strong pace of 4.3% in the third quarter — the highest rate in two years — according to a government report released Tuesday.Vigorous consumer spending on services such as health care and products like recreational vehicles fueled the surge in the gross domestic product, which is comprised of the value of all goods and services produced across the economy, for the July through September quarter.The inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4.3% marked an uptick from 3.8% growt ...

Nasdaq dancing around a new all-time high.Gold & commodities are on a tear.Rates are going down.Inflation is cooling down.But yet, $BTC is down 35% from the all-time high.I don't think I've ever seen such a big mispricing taking place in real time. ...